Opinion Poll by Sifo, 3–13 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 26.5% 25.9–27.1% 25.7–27.3% 25.6–27.4% 25.3–27.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 18.4% 17.9–18.9% 17.7–19.1% 17.6–19.2% 17.4–19.5%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.1% 17.6–18.6% 17.4–18.8% 17.3–18.9% 17.1–19.2%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 9.5% 9.1–9.9% 9.0–10.0% 8.9–10.1% 8.7–10.3%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.8% 8.4–9.2% 8.3–9.3% 8.2–9.4% 8.1–9.6%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.6% 8.2–9.0% 8.1–9.1% 8.0–9.2% 7.9–9.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.9% 4.6–5.2% 4.5–5.3% 4.5–5.4% 4.3–5.5%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.7% 3.5–4.0% 3.4–4.1% 3.3–4.1% 3.2–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 97 94–100 94–100 93–101 91–102
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 67 65–70 65–70 64–71 63–71
Sverigedemokraterna 62 67 64–68 63–69 62–69 62–70
Kristdemokraterna 22 35 33–36 33–37 32–37 32–38
Centerpartiet 31 32 31–34 30–34 30–35 29–35
Vänsterpartiet 28 32 30–33 30–34 30–34 29–34
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 18 17–19 17–19 16–20 16–20
Liberalerna 20 0 0–14 0–14 0–15 0–15

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.8% 99.5%  
93 3% 98.7%  
94 9% 96%  
95 10% 87%  
96 15% 77%  
97 15% 62% Median
98 20% 47%  
99 17% 27%  
100 6% 10% Last Result
101 3% 4%  
102 0.6% 0.8%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 2% 99.5%  
64 3% 98%  
65 10% 95%  
66 18% 85%  
67 23% 67% Median
68 19% 45%  
69 15% 25%  
70 7% 11% Last Result
71 3% 4%  
72 0.4% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.4% 100%  
62 2% 99.6% Last Result
63 3% 97%  
64 7% 94%  
65 12% 87%  
66 24% 75%  
67 26% 51% Median
68 18% 25%  
69 5% 7%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 2% 99.7%  
33 11% 97%  
34 24% 87%  
35 30% 63% Median
36 27% 33%  
37 5% 7%  
38 1.1% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.9%  
30 5% 99.2%  
31 16% 94% Last Result
32 36% 78% Median
33 28% 42%  
34 12% 14%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100% Last Result
29 2% 99.7%  
30 15% 98%  
31 31% 83%  
32 37% 52% Median
33 9% 15%  
34 6% 6%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 4% 99.9% Last Result
17 25% 96%  
18 43% 71% Median
19 24% 28%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 0% 11%  
8 0% 11%  
9 0% 11%  
10 0% 11%  
11 0% 11%  
12 0% 11%  
13 0% 11%  
14 6% 11%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 197 100% 192–200 190–201 188–201 187–202
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 180 99.8% 177–185 177–187 176–188 175–190
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 169 0.2% 164–172 162–172 161–173 159–174
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 165 0% 160–167 159–168 157–169 156–170
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 148 0% 146–154 145–157 144–158 143–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 147 0% 143–149 142–150 141–151 139–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 143 135 0% 133–141 132–144 131–145 130–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet 123 135 0% 131–137 129–138 128–139 127–140
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 134 0% 130–137 128–137 127–138 126–139
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 129 0% 125–131 124–132 123–133 122–134
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 116 0% 112–118 111–118 111–119 108–120
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 100 0% 98–108 97–111 97–111 96–113
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 100 0% 97–102 96–103 95–103 94–104

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0.1% 100%  
186 0.3% 99.9%  
187 0.9% 99.6%  
188 1.5% 98.7%  
189 2% 97%  
190 1.4% 95%  
191 3% 94%  
192 0.6% 91%  
193 2% 90%  
194 3% 88%  
195 6% 85%  
196 11% 79% Median
197 28% 68%  
198 14% 40%  
199 14% 26%  
200 6% 12%  
201 4% 5% Last Result
202 1.3% 2%  
203 0.3% 0.4%  
204 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.8% 99.8% Majority
176 2% 99.0%  
177 7% 97%  
178 15% 90%  
179 14% 74% Median
180 19% 60%  
181 19% 41%  
182 5% 21%  
183 4% 17%  
184 2% 12%  
185 1.3% 10%  
186 1.0% 9%  
187 4% 8%  
188 4% 4%  
189 0.4% 0.9%  
190 0.4% 0.5%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 100%  
159 0.4% 99.9%  
160 0.4% 99.5%  
161 4% 99.1%  
162 4% 96%  
163 1.0% 92%  
164 1.3% 91%  
165 2% 90%  
166 4% 88%  
167 5% 83%  
168 19% 79%  
169 19% 59% Median
170 14% 40%  
171 15% 26%  
172 7% 10%  
173 2% 3%  
174 0.8% 1.0%  
175 0.1% 0.2% Majority
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0.3% 99.9%  
156 1.3% 99.6%  
157 1.1% 98%  
158 1.4% 97%  
159 4% 96%  
160 2% 92%  
161 2% 90%  
162 7% 88%  
163 7% 81%  
164 17% 74% Median
165 25% 58%  
166 13% 32%  
167 12% 20%  
168 5% 8%  
169 3% 4%  
170 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
171 0.2% 0.2%  
172 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.2% 100%  
143 0.8% 99.8%  
144 2% 99.0%  
145 5% 97%  
146 12% 92%  
147 12% 80% Median
148 22% 67%  
149 15% 45%  
150 13% 30%  
151 4% 17%  
152 3% 14%  
153 0.8% 11%  
154 0.9% 10%  
155 0.6% 10%  
156 3% 9%  
157 2% 6%  
158 3% 4%  
159 0.4% 0.8%  
160 0.4% 0.4%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0.1% 100%  
138 0.3% 99.9%  
139 0.8% 99.6%  
140 0.3% 98.8%  
141 2% 98.5%  
142 6% 96%  
143 2% 90%  
144 7% 89% Last Result
145 13% 82%  
146 14% 69%  
147 8% 55% Median
148 24% 47%  
149 16% 23%  
150 4% 7%  
151 0.8% 3%  
152 2% 2%  
153 0.4% 0.4%  
154 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0.1% 100%  
130 0.6% 99.9%  
131 2% 99.3%  
132 5% 97%  
133 13% 92%  
134 13% 79% Median
135 19% 66%  
136 12% 47%  
137 15% 35%  
138 6% 20%  
139 3% 14%  
140 0.6% 11%  
141 0.7% 11%  
142 0.9% 10%  
143 3% 9% Last Result
144 2% 6%  
145 2% 4%  
146 0.8% 1.3%  
147 0.3% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100% Last Result
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.7% 99.8%  
128 2% 99.1%  
129 3% 97%  
130 2% 94%  
131 5% 92%  
132 5% 87%  
133 14% 82%  
134 13% 68% Median
135 19% 55%  
136 12% 37%  
137 15% 25%  
138 6% 9%  
139 3% 3%  
140 0.5% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.9% 99.8%  
127 3% 98.9%  
128 1.1% 96%  
129 4% 95%  
130 2% 91%  
131 4% 89%  
132 7% 85% Last Result
133 21% 78%  
134 17% 57% Median
135 19% 39%  
136 8% 20%  
137 9% 13%  
138 2% 3%  
139 1.1% 1.3%  
140 0.2% 0.2%  
141 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.3% 99.9%  
122 0.6% 99.5%  
123 2% 99.0%  
124 4% 97%  
125 4% 93%  
126 7% 89%  
127 12% 83%  
128 15% 70% Last Result
129 12% 55% Median
130 21% 43%  
131 14% 22%  
132 4% 7%  
133 3% 3%  
134 0.6% 0.9%  
135 0.3% 0.3%  
136 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.3% 99.8%  
109 0.4% 99.4%  
110 1.0% 99.0%  
111 5% 98%  
112 9% 93%  
113 11% 84%  
114 7% 73%  
115 15% 66% Median
116 25% 51% Last Result
117 13% 26%  
118 8% 13%  
119 3% 5%  
120 1.0% 2%  
121 0.4% 0.5%  
122 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.2% 100%  
96 2% 99.8%  
97 6% 98%  
98 12% 93%  
99 17% 80% Median
100 15% 64%  
101 17% 49%  
102 13% 32%  
103 7% 19%  
104 1.2% 12%  
105 0.3% 11%  
106 0.1% 11%  
107 0.2% 11%  
108 1.4% 10%  
109 0.9% 9%  
110 3% 8%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.2% 2%  
113 0.5% 0.7%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 2% 99.7%  
95 3% 98%  
96 4% 95%  
97 8% 92%  
98 13% 83%  
99 17% 70% Median
100 15% 53%  
101 17% 38% Last Result
102 13% 21%  
103 7% 8%  
104 1.2% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations