Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 17–24 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 25.4% | 24.2–26.6% | 23.8–27.0% | 23.5–27.3% | 23.0–27.9% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.7% | 18.6–20.9% | 18.3–21.2% | 18.0–21.5% | 17.5–22.0% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.4% | 18.3–20.5% | 18.0–20.9% | 17.7–21.1% | 17.2–21.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.6–10.3% | 8.4–10.5% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.8–11.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5–9.1% | 7.3–9.4% | 7.2–9.6% | 6.8–10.0% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 94 | 88–98 | 87–99 | 86–101 | 83–103 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 72 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 65–80 | 63–82 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 71 | 67–75 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 62–80 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 34 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 26 | 23–29 | 22–29 | 22–30 | 21–32 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 18 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 0–23 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 2% | 96% | |
| 88 | 4% | 94% | |
| 89 | 5% | 89% | |
| 90 | 8% | 84% | |
| 91 | 8% | 76% | |
| 92 | 7% | 68% | |
| 93 | 10% | 61% | |
| 94 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 95 | 12% | 42% | |
| 96 | 10% | 30% | |
| 97 | 6% | 21% | |
| 98 | 5% | 14% | |
| 99 | 4% | 9% | |
| 100 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 101 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 67 | 5% | 96% | |
| 68 | 4% | 91% | |
| 69 | 4% | 87% | |
| 70 | 18% | 83% | Last Result |
| 71 | 2% | 65% | |
| 72 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 73 | 7% | 43% | |
| 74 | 8% | 36% | |
| 75 | 13% | 28% | |
| 76 | 1.5% | 15% | |
| 77 | 8% | 13% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 95% | |
| 67 | 6% | 92% | |
| 68 | 8% | 85% | |
| 69 | 10% | 78% | |
| 70 | 13% | 68% | |
| 71 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 43% | |
| 73 | 8% | 31% | |
| 74 | 9% | 23% | |
| 75 | 4% | 14% | |
| 76 | 4% | 9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 31 | 5% | 96% | Last Result |
| 32 | 11% | 91% | |
| 33 | 16% | 81% | |
| 34 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 35 | 15% | 50% | |
| 36 | 13% | 35% | |
| 37 | 11% | 22% | |
| 38 | 6% | 11% | |
| 39 | 3% | 5% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 27 | 5% | 97% | |
| 28 | 9% | 92% | Last Result |
| 29 | 15% | 83% | |
| 30 | 13% | 67% | |
| 31 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 37% | |
| 33 | 7% | 17% | |
| 34 | 5% | 10% | |
| 35 | 3% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 23 | 6% | 94% | |
| 24 | 17% | 88% | |
| 25 | 16% | 70% | |
| 26 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 27 | 18% | 39% | |
| 28 | 11% | 21% | |
| 29 | 6% | 10% | |
| 30 | 2% | 4% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 16 | 11% | 96% | Last Result |
| 17 | 10% | 85% | |
| 18 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 19 | 23% | 48% | |
| 20 | 10% | 25% | |
| 21 | 9% | 14% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0% | 19% | |
| 3 | 0% | 19% | |
| 4 | 0% | 19% | |
| 5 | 0% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0% | 19% | |
| 7 | 0% | 19% | |
| 8 | 0% | 19% | |
| 9 | 0% | 19% | |
| 10 | 0% | 19% | |
| 11 | 0% | 19% | |
| 12 | 0% | 19% | |
| 13 | 0% | 19% | |
| 14 | 5% | 19% | |
| 15 | 9% | 14% | |
| 16 | 4% | 5% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 201 | 100% | 192–206 | 190–208 | 188–210 | 185–213 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 180 | 87% | 174–186 | 172–188 | 171–190 | 167–193 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 169 | 13% | 163–175 | 161–177 | 159–178 | 156–182 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 166 | 2% | 159–172 | 156–173 | 154–174 | 152–178 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 149 | 0% | 143–156 | 142–159 | 140–160 | 137–164 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 143 | 0% | 138–149 | 136–151 | 135–152 | 131–155 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 143 | 0% | 136–148 | 134–149 | 132–150 | 129–153 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 134 | 0% | 130–143 | 128–145 | 127–147 | 125–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 133 | 0% | 127–139 | 125–140 | 123–141 | 121–144 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 125 | 0% | 118–129 | 116–130 | 115–132 | 112–135 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 109 | 0% | 104–118 | 102–120 | 102–122 | 99–125 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 112 | 0% | 106–117 | 104–118 | 103–120 | 99–122 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 107 | 0% | 102–112 | 100–113 | 99–115 | 96–118 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 183 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 188 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 189 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 191 | 3% | 95% | |
| 192 | 2% | 92% | |
| 193 | 3% | 90% | |
| 194 | 3% | 87% | |
| 195 | 3% | 84% | |
| 196 | 3% | 81% | |
| 197 | 4% | 77% | |
| 198 | 8% | 74% | |
| 199 | 6% | 66% | |
| 200 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 201 | 7% | 52% | Last Result |
| 202 | 5% | 45% | |
| 203 | 7% | 40% | |
| 204 | 9% | 33% | |
| 205 | 8% | 24% | |
| 206 | 7% | 16% | |
| 207 | 3% | 9% | |
| 208 | 2% | 6% | |
| 209 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 210 | 2% | 3% | |
| 211 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 171 | 2% | 98% | |
| 172 | 2% | 95% | |
| 173 | 3% | 94% | |
| 174 | 4% | 91% | |
| 175 | 3% | 87% | Majority |
| 176 | 8% | 84% | |
| 177 | 6% | 76% | Median |
| 178 | 11% | 70% | |
| 179 | 6% | 59% | |
| 180 | 10% | 53% | |
| 181 | 9% | 44% | |
| 182 | 6% | 34% | |
| 183 | 6% | 29% | |
| 184 | 7% | 22% | |
| 185 | 2% | 16% | |
| 186 | 4% | 13% | |
| 187 | 3% | 9% | |
| 188 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 189 | 2% | 5% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 160 | 2% | 97% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 162 | 3% | 94% | |
| 163 | 4% | 91% | |
| 164 | 2% | 87% | |
| 165 | 7% | 84% | |
| 166 | 6% | 78% | |
| 167 | 6% | 71% | |
| 168 | 9% | 66% | |
| 169 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 170 | 6% | 47% | |
| 171 | 11% | 41% | |
| 172 | 6% | 30% | |
| 173 | 8% | 24% | |
| 174 | 3% | 16% | |
| 175 | 4% | 13% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 9% | |
| 177 | 2% | 6% | |
| 178 | 2% | 5% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 155 | 2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 157 | 2% | 95% | |
| 158 | 2% | 93% | |
| 159 | 3% | 91% | |
| 160 | 4% | 88% | |
| 161 | 6% | 84% | |
| 162 | 3% | 79% | |
| 163 | 8% | 76% | |
| 164 | 8% | 68% | |
| 165 | 6% | 60% | |
| 166 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 167 | 11% | 49% | |
| 168 | 6% | 37% | |
| 169 | 6% | 31% | |
| 170 | 4% | 25% | Last Result |
| 171 | 11% | 21% | |
| 172 | 2% | 11% | |
| 173 | 4% | 8% | |
| 174 | 2% | 5% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 140 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 141 | 2% | 97% | |
| 142 | 3% | 95% | |
| 143 | 3% | 92% | |
| 144 | 7% | 89% | |
| 145 | 5% | 82% | |
| 146 | 10% | 77% | Median |
| 147 | 7% | 67% | |
| 148 | 7% | 60% | |
| 149 | 10% | 53% | |
| 150 | 5% | 43% | |
| 151 | 9% | 38% | |
| 152 | 3% | 29% | |
| 153 | 5% | 26% | |
| 154 | 4% | 21% | |
| 155 | 3% | 17% | |
| 156 | 5% | 14% | |
| 157 | 2% | 9% | |
| 158 | 2% | 7% | |
| 159 | 2% | 5% | |
| 160 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 135 | 2% | 98% | |
| 136 | 2% | 96% | |
| 137 | 3% | 94% | |
| 138 | 4% | 91% | |
| 139 | 6% | 86% | |
| 140 | 6% | 81% | |
| 141 | 7% | 74% | |
| 142 | 11% | 68% | |
| 143 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 144 | 10% | 50% | |
| 145 | 12% | 40% | |
| 146 | 7% | 28% | |
| 147 | 6% | 21% | |
| 148 | 4% | 16% | |
| 149 | 3% | 12% | |
| 150 | 2% | 8% | |
| 151 | 3% | 6% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 132 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 134 | 3% | 97% | |
| 135 | 2% | 94% | |
| 136 | 3% | 92% | |
| 137 | 4% | 89% | |
| 138 | 6% | 85% | |
| 139 | 5% | 79% | |
| 140 | 6% | 74% | |
| 141 | 8% | 68% | |
| 142 | 5% | 60% | |
| 143 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 144 | 9% | 46% | Last Result |
| 145 | 10% | 38% | |
| 146 | 10% | 28% | |
| 147 | 4% | 18% | |
| 148 | 7% | 14% | |
| 149 | 4% | 7% | |
| 150 | 2% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 128 | 2% | 97% | |
| 129 | 3% | 94% | |
| 130 | 7% | 92% | |
| 131 | 6% | 85% | |
| 132 | 8% | 79% | Median |
| 133 | 12% | 71% | |
| 134 | 9% | 59% | |
| 135 | 5% | 50% | |
| 136 | 7% | 45% | |
| 137 | 7% | 38% | |
| 138 | 4% | 31% | |
| 139 | 4% | 27% | |
| 140 | 7% | 23% | |
| 141 | 2% | 16% | |
| 142 | 3% | 14% | |
| 143 | 3% | 11% | Last Result |
| 144 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 145 | 2% | 7% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 147 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 98% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 125 | 3% | 97% | |
| 126 | 3% | 94% | |
| 127 | 3% | 91% | |
| 128 | 4% | 88% | |
| 129 | 5% | 83% | |
| 130 | 9% | 78% | |
| 131 | 7% | 70% | |
| 132 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 133 | 13% | 54% | |
| 134 | 9% | 41% | |
| 135 | 6% | 32% | |
| 136 | 7% | 26% | |
| 137 | 6% | 19% | |
| 138 | 3% | 14% | |
| 139 | 4% | 10% | |
| 140 | 4% | 7% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 97% | |
| 117 | 2% | 94% | |
| 118 | 3% | 92% | |
| 119 | 5% | 89% | |
| 120 | 5% | 84% | |
| 121 | 5% | 79% | |
| 122 | 7% | 74% | |
| 123 | 8% | 67% | |
| 124 | 7% | 58% | |
| 125 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 126 | 8% | 40% | |
| 127 | 11% | 32% | |
| 128 | 8% | 21% | Last Result |
| 129 | 5% | 13% | |
| 130 | 3% | 8% | |
| 131 | 2% | 5% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 102 | 3% | 98% | |
| 103 | 3% | 95% | |
| 104 | 4% | 92% | |
| 105 | 11% | 88% | |
| 106 | 8% | 77% | Median |
| 107 | 7% | 69% | |
| 108 | 8% | 63% | |
| 109 | 12% | 55% | |
| 110 | 8% | 43% | |
| 111 | 5% | 35% | |
| 112 | 5% | 30% | |
| 113 | 4% | 26% | |
| 114 | 3% | 22% | |
| 115 | 3% | 19% | |
| 116 | 3% | 16% | |
| 117 | 3% | 13% | |
| 118 | 3% | 10% | |
| 119 | 2% | 8% | |
| 120 | 2% | 6% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 104 | 2% | 97% | |
| 105 | 2% | 95% | |
| 106 | 4% | 93% | |
| 107 | 4% | 88% | |
| 108 | 7% | 85% | |
| 109 | 7% | 78% | |
| 110 | 7% | 71% | |
| 111 | 10% | 64% | |
| 112 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 113 | 7% | 46% | |
| 114 | 15% | 39% | |
| 115 | 5% | 24% | |
| 116 | 4% | 19% | Last Result |
| 117 | 6% | 15% | |
| 118 | 4% | 9% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 99 | 3% | 98% | |
| 100 | 2% | 96% | |
| 101 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 102 | 4% | 91% | |
| 103 | 7% | 87% | |
| 104 | 6% | 80% | |
| 105 | 13% | 74% | |
| 106 | 9% | 62% | Median |
| 107 | 7% | 53% | |
| 108 | 9% | 46% | |
| 109 | 12% | 37% | |
| 110 | 8% | 25% | |
| 111 | 4% | 17% | |
| 112 | 5% | 12% | |
| 113 | 3% | 8% | |
| 114 | 2% | 5% | |
| 115 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 17–24 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2076
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.62%