Opinion Poll by SKOP, 25 June–16 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 25.6% | 23.9–27.4% | 23.4–27.9% | 23.0–28.3% | 22.2–29.2% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.2–21.3% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 17.0% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.2–19.0% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.2–20.2% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.5–10.8% | 8.2–11.2% | 7.9–11.5% | 7.4–12.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.4% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.6–11.1% | 7.1–11.7% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.8% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 91 | 85–97 | 83–99 | 81–101 | 78–104 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 64 | 59–70 | 57–71 | 56–72 | 53–75 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 61 | 54–66 | 53–68 | 52–70 | 50–72 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 34 | 30–38 | 29–40 | 28–41 | 26–43 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 32 | 29–36 | 28–38 | 27–39 | 25–41 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 31 | 28–36 | 27–37 | 26–38 | 24–40 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 21 | 17–24 | 16–25 | 16–26 | 14–28 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 17 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–22 | 0–23 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 83 | 3% | 96% | |
| 84 | 3% | 93% | |
| 85 | 5% | 90% | |
| 86 | 5% | 85% | |
| 87 | 9% | 80% | |
| 88 | 6% | 72% | |
| 89 | 7% | 66% | |
| 90 | 6% | 58% | |
| 91 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 92 | 9% | 45% | |
| 93 | 6% | 36% | |
| 94 | 8% | 30% | |
| 95 | 4% | 21% | |
| 96 | 3% | 17% | |
| 97 | 5% | 14% | |
| 98 | 2% | 8% | |
| 99 | 2% | 6% | |
| 100 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 101 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 3% | 90% | |
| 60 | 6% | 87% | |
| 61 | 8% | 81% | |
| 62 | 8% | 72% | Last Result |
| 63 | 7% | 65% | |
| 64 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 65 | 10% | 48% | |
| 66 | 9% | 38% | |
| 67 | 5% | 28% | |
| 68 | 5% | 24% | |
| 69 | 9% | 19% | |
| 70 | 3% | 10% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 53 | 4% | 97% | |
| 54 | 4% | 93% | |
| 55 | 3% | 89% | |
| 56 | 6% | 87% | |
| 57 | 7% | 80% | |
| 58 | 7% | 74% | |
| 59 | 6% | 66% | |
| 60 | 11% | 61% | |
| 61 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 62 | 11% | 39% | |
| 63 | 6% | 28% | |
| 64 | 5% | 22% | |
| 65 | 5% | 17% | |
| 66 | 4% | 12% | |
| 67 | 2% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 29 | 3% | 96% | |
| 30 | 6% | 93% | |
| 31 | 8% | 88% | Last Result |
| 32 | 12% | 80% | |
| 33 | 12% | 67% | |
| 34 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 35 | 12% | 45% | |
| 36 | 9% | 33% | |
| 37 | 8% | 23% | |
| 38 | 5% | 15% | |
| 39 | 4% | 10% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 5% | 95% | |
| 29 | 7% | 91% | |
| 30 | 11% | 83% | |
| 31 | 14% | 73% | |
| 32 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 47% | |
| 34 | 9% | 35% | |
| 35 | 8% | 26% | |
| 36 | 9% | 18% | |
| 37 | 4% | 10% | |
| 38 | 2% | 6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98% | |
| 27 | 5% | 96% | |
| 28 | 5% | 91% | Last Result |
| 29 | 13% | 86% | |
| 30 | 11% | 72% | |
| 31 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 32 | 11% | 47% | |
| 33 | 11% | 35% | |
| 34 | 9% | 24% | |
| 35 | 6% | 16% | |
| 36 | 4% | 10% | |
| 37 | 2% | 6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 4% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 4% | 98% | |
| 17 | 7% | 95% | |
| 18 | 10% | 88% | |
| 19 | 12% | 78% | |
| 20 | 15% | 66% | Last Result |
| 21 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 22 | 13% | 34% | |
| 23 | 6% | 21% | |
| 24 | 7% | 15% | |
| 25 | 4% | 8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 87% | |
| 2 | 0% | 87% | |
| 3 | 0% | 87% | |
| 4 | 0% | 87% | |
| 5 | 0% | 87% | |
| 6 | 0% | 87% | |
| 7 | 0% | 87% | |
| 8 | 0% | 87% | |
| 9 | 0% | 87% | |
| 10 | 0% | 87% | |
| 11 | 0% | 87% | |
| 12 | 0% | 87% | |
| 13 | 0% | 87% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 15 | 19% | 86% | |
| 16 | 12% | 66% | Last Result |
| 17 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 18 | 11% | 34% | |
| 19 | 10% | 22% | |
| 20 | 7% | 12% | |
| 21 | 3% | 5% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 192 | 99.5% | 184–200 | 182–202 | 179–203 | 175–207 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 185 | 97% | 178–194 | 176–197 | 174–198 | 170–203 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 161 | 0.5% | 152–168 | 149–169 | 146–171 | 143–175 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 157 | 0.5% | 149–165 | 147–167 | 146–170 | 142–174 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 151 | 0% | 144–158 | 142–161 | 140–164 | 137–168 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 147 | 0% | 140–156 | 138–158 | 136–160 | 133–165 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 139 | 0% | 130–146 | 125–147 | 123–148 | 118–153 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 127 | 0% | 120–135 | 118–137 | 117–139 | 113–144 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 124 | 0% | 118–132 | 116–134 | 114–136 | 111–140 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 122 | 0% | 115–130 | 114–131 | 112–133 | 108–138 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 115 | 0% | 107–122 | 106–125 | 104–127 | 101–131 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 106 | 0% | 97–113 | 93–115 | 91–117 | 86–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 95 | 0% | 87–102 | 86–104 | 85–105 | 82–108 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 181 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 182 | 2% | 96% | |
| 183 | 2% | 94% | |
| 184 | 3% | 92% | |
| 185 | 3% | 89% | |
| 186 | 4% | 86% | |
| 187 | 5% | 82% | |
| 188 | 4% | 77% | |
| 189 | 4% | 73% | |
| 190 | 8% | 69% | |
| 191 | 9% | 61% | |
| 192 | 7% | 52% | |
| 193 | 3% | 45% | |
| 194 | 4% | 42% | Median |
| 195 | 8% | 38% | Last Result |
| 196 | 7% | 30% | |
| 197 | 8% | 22% | |
| 198 | 3% | 15% | |
| 199 | 2% | 12% | |
| 200 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 201 | 4% | 9% | |
| 202 | 3% | 5% | |
| 203 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 174 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 175 | 1.2% | 97% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 95% | |
| 177 | 3% | 93% | |
| 178 | 3% | 91% | |
| 179 | 3% | 88% | |
| 180 | 5% | 84% | |
| 181 | 7% | 80% | |
| 182 | 7% | 73% | |
| 183 | 6% | 66% | |
| 184 | 6% | 60% | |
| 185 | 6% | 54% | |
| 186 | 7% | 48% | Median |
| 187 | 10% | 40% | |
| 188 | 4% | 31% | |
| 189 | 5% | 26% | |
| 190 | 4% | 21% | |
| 191 | 3% | 18% | |
| 192 | 3% | 15% | |
| 193 | 2% | 12% | |
| 194 | 3% | 10% | |
| 195 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 196 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 197 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 198 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 146 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 150 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 151 | 2% | 93% | |
| 152 | 2% | 92% | |
| 153 | 2% | 90% | |
| 154 | 2% | 87% | |
| 155 | 3% | 85% | |
| 156 | 4% | 82% | |
| 157 | 5% | 77% | |
| 158 | 7% | 73% | |
| 159 | 8% | 65% | |
| 160 | 6% | 57% | |
| 161 | 9% | 51% | |
| 162 | 6% | 42% | |
| 163 | 5% | 37% | Median |
| 164 | 5% | 32% | |
| 165 | 4% | 27% | |
| 166 | 5% | 22% | |
| 167 | 4% | 17% | Last Result |
| 168 | 5% | 13% | |
| 169 | 3% | 8% | |
| 170 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 147 | 3% | 97% | |
| 148 | 4% | 95% | |
| 149 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 150 | 2% | 90% | |
| 151 | 3% | 88% | |
| 152 | 8% | 85% | |
| 153 | 7% | 78% | |
| 154 | 8% | 70% | Last Result |
| 155 | 4% | 62% | |
| 156 | 3% | 58% | |
| 157 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 158 | 9% | 48% | |
| 159 | 8% | 39% | |
| 160 | 4% | 31% | |
| 161 | 4% | 27% | |
| 162 | 5% | 23% | |
| 163 | 4% | 18% | |
| 164 | 3% | 14% | |
| 165 | 3% | 11% | |
| 166 | 2% | 8% | |
| 167 | 2% | 6% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 140 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 141 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 142 | 3% | 96% | |
| 143 | 2% | 93% | |
| 144 | 5% | 91% | |
| 145 | 2% | 86% | |
| 146 | 3% | 83% | |
| 147 | 6% | 81% | |
| 148 | 7% | 75% | |
| 149 | 10% | 68% | |
| 150 | 6% | 57% | |
| 151 | 7% | 51% | |
| 152 | 4% | 44% | Median |
| 153 | 5% | 41% | |
| 154 | 6% | 35% | |
| 155 | 6% | 29% | |
| 156 | 5% | 24% | |
| 157 | 7% | 18% | |
| 158 | 3% | 12% | |
| 159 | 2% | 9% | |
| 160 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 162 | 2% | 5% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 164 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 136 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 137 | 2% | 97% | |
| 138 | 2% | 95% | |
| 139 | 3% | 93% | |
| 140 | 3% | 90% | |
| 141 | 5% | 87% | |
| 142 | 5% | 82% | |
| 143 | 4% | 78% | Last Result |
| 144 | 6% | 74% | |
| 145 | 5% | 68% | |
| 146 | 8% | 64% | |
| 147 | 7% | 56% | |
| 148 | 6% | 49% | Median |
| 149 | 6% | 43% | |
| 150 | 6% | 37% | |
| 151 | 4% | 31% | |
| 152 | 6% | 27% | |
| 153 | 4% | 20% | |
| 154 | 3% | 17% | |
| 155 | 3% | 13% | |
| 156 | 4% | 10% | |
| 157 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 159 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 125 | 2% | 96% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 129 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 130 | 3% | 90% | |
| 131 | 5% | 87% | |
| 132 | 7% | 82% | |
| 133 | 6% | 75% | |
| 134 | 4% | 70% | |
| 135 | 2% | 66% | |
| 136 | 2% | 63% | |
| 137 | 4% | 61% | |
| 138 | 8% | 58% | |
| 139 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 140 | 14% | 41% | |
| 141 | 8% | 27% | |
| 142 | 3% | 20% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 17% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 16% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 14% | |
| 146 | 3% | 11% | |
| 147 | 4% | 8% | |
| 148 | 2% | 4% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 117 | 2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 3% | 96% | |
| 119 | 3% | 93% | |
| 120 | 3% | 90% | |
| 121 | 6% | 87% | |
| 122 | 4% | 82% | |
| 123 | 5% | 78% | Last Result |
| 124 | 4% | 72% | |
| 125 | 8% | 68% | |
| 126 | 7% | 60% | |
| 127 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 128 | 6% | 46% | |
| 129 | 8% | 40% | |
| 130 | 7% | 32% | |
| 131 | 5% | 25% | |
| 132 | 4% | 20% | |
| 133 | 3% | 16% | |
| 134 | 2% | 13% | |
| 135 | 3% | 11% | |
| 136 | 2% | 8% | |
| 137 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 113 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 116 | 2% | 96% | |
| 117 | 4% | 94% | |
| 118 | 5% | 90% | |
| 119 | 4% | 85% | |
| 120 | 3% | 81% | |
| 121 | 7% | 78% | |
| 122 | 9% | 71% | |
| 123 | 6% | 62% | |
| 124 | 6% | 56% | |
| 125 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 126 | 7% | 44% | |
| 127 | 9% | 37% | |
| 128 | 4% | 28% | |
| 129 | 6% | 24% | |
| 130 | 4% | 19% | |
| 131 | 3% | 14% | |
| 132 | 4% | 12% | Last Result |
| 133 | 3% | 8% | |
| 134 | 2% | 5% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 136 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 110 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 112 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 113 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 114 | 3% | 96% | |
| 115 | 5% | 93% | |
| 116 | 6% | 88% | |
| 117 | 5% | 82% | |
| 118 | 3% | 77% | |
| 119 | 5% | 74% | |
| 120 | 4% | 69% | |
| 121 | 10% | 64% | |
| 122 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 123 | 8% | 49% | |
| 124 | 7% | 41% | |
| 125 | 8% | 33% | |
| 126 | 5% | 26% | |
| 127 | 3% | 21% | |
| 128 | 2% | 17% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 15% | |
| 130 | 4% | 12% | |
| 131 | 4% | 8% | |
| 132 | 2% | 5% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 105 | 2% | 97% | |
| 106 | 2% | 95% | |
| 107 | 3% | 93% | |
| 108 | 2% | 90% | |
| 109 | 3% | 87% | |
| 110 | 4% | 84% | |
| 111 | 5% | 80% | |
| 112 | 6% | 75% | |
| 113 | 8% | 69% | |
| 114 | 8% | 62% | |
| 115 | 6% | 54% | |
| 116 | 8% | 48% | Median |
| 117 | 7% | 40% | |
| 118 | 6% | 32% | |
| 119 | 6% | 26% | |
| 120 | 4% | 20% | |
| 121 | 3% | 15% | Last Result |
| 122 | 3% | 12% | |
| 123 | 2% | 9% | |
| 124 | 2% | 7% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 127 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 94 | 2% | 94% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 97 | 3% | 91% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 99 | 2% | 87% | |
| 100 | 3% | 85% | |
| 101 | 5% | 81% | |
| 102 | 4% | 77% | |
| 103 | 3% | 73% | |
| 104 | 10% | 70% | |
| 105 | 4% | 60% | |
| 106 | 7% | 56% | |
| 107 | 6% | 49% | |
| 108 | 5% | 42% | Median |
| 109 | 8% | 38% | |
| 110 | 6% | 29% | |
| 111 | 4% | 23% | |
| 112 | 5% | 19% | |
| 113 | 5% | 14% | |
| 114 | 2% | 9% | |
| 115 | 2% | 7% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 4% | Last Result |
| 117 | 2% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 86 | 3% | 97% | |
| 87 | 5% | 94% | |
| 88 | 5% | 89% | |
| 89 | 4% | 84% | |
| 90 | 2% | 80% | |
| 91 | 2% | 78% | |
| 92 | 3% | 76% | |
| 93 | 10% | 74% | |
| 94 | 10% | 64% | |
| 95 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 96 | 11% | 38% | |
| 97 | 7% | 27% | |
| 98 | 4% | 20% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 101 | 2% | 14% | Last Result |
| 102 | 3% | 11% | |
| 103 | 3% | 9% | |
| 104 | 2% | 6% | |
| 105 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SKOP
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25 June–16 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1048
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.28%