Opinion Poll by Sifo, 6–15 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 26.8% 26.1–27.5% 25.9–27.7% 25.7–27.9% 25.3–28.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 19.1% 18.4–19.7% 18.3–19.9% 18.1–20.1% 17.8–20.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.2% 17.6–18.8% 17.4–19.0% 17.2–19.2% 16.9–19.5%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.8% 8.3–9.3% 8.2–9.4% 8.1–9.5% 7.9–9.8%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.7% 8.2–9.2% 8.1–9.3% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 8.4% 8.0–8.9% 7.8–9.0% 7.7–9.1% 7.5–9.3%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.9% 4.6–5.3% 4.5–5.4% 4.4–5.5% 4.2–5.6%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.8% 3.5–4.1% 3.4–4.2% 3.4–4.3% 3.2–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 98 94–101 93–102 92–102 91–103
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 70 67–72 66–73 65–73 64–75
Sverigedemokraterna 62 66 64–69 63–70 62–70 61–71
Centerpartiet 31 32 30–34 30–34 29–35 29–36
Vänsterpartiet 28 32 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–35
Kristdemokraterna 22 31 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–34
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 18 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–20
Liberalerna 20 0 0–15 0–15 0–15 0–16

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.3% 99.9%  
91 1.0% 99.6%  
92 3% 98.6%  
93 2% 96%  
94 8% 93%  
95 9% 85%  
96 11% 76%  
97 12% 65%  
98 17% 53% Median
99 11% 36%  
100 10% 26% Last Result
101 10% 16%  
102 3% 5%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 1.4% 99.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 8% 94%  
68 12% 85%  
69 20% 73%  
70 16% 53% Last Result, Median
71 16% 37%  
72 12% 21%  
73 6% 8%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.6%  
62 2% 98.8% Last Result
63 6% 97%  
64 11% 91%  
65 17% 80%  
66 13% 63% Median
67 17% 50%  
68 14% 33%  
69 12% 19%  
70 5% 7%  
71 1.0% 1.3%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.6%  
30 10% 96%  
31 19% 87% Last Result
32 35% 67% Median
33 19% 33%  
34 9% 14%  
35 4% 4%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
29 4% 99.3%  
30 12% 95%  
31 24% 83%  
32 26% 59% Median
33 18% 33%  
34 12% 15%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 6% 99.1%  
29 12% 93%  
30 23% 81%  
31 32% 58% Median
32 17% 26%  
33 7% 9%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.8% 100%  
16 8% 99.1% Last Result
17 27% 92%  
18 36% 64% Median
19 21% 28%  
20 7% 7%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 0% 20%  
4 0% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 0% 20%  
7 0% 20%  
8 0% 20%  
9 0% 20%  
10 0% 20%  
11 0% 20%  
12 0% 20%  
13 0% 20%  
14 9% 20%  
15 10% 11%  
16 0.9% 0.9%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 200 100% 192–204 191–205 190–205 188–207
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 182 99.8% 178–188 177–190 177–190 175–192
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 167 0.3% 161–172 160–172 159–173 158–174
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 167 0.2% 161–171 159–172 159–172 157–174
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 150 0% 146–157 145–158 145–159 143–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 148 0% 142–151 140–152 140–153 138–154
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 134 0% 131–143 131–145 130–145 128–147
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 136 0% 131–140 130–141 129–141 128–143
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 132 0% 128–136 127–137 125–138 123–139
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 130 0% 125–133 123–134 123–135 121–136
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 116 0% 111–119 110–120 109–121 108–121
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 103 0% 100–113 99–114 99–116 98–116
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 102 0% 98–105 97–106 96–107 94–107

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0.1% 100%  
187 0.2% 99.9%  
188 0.3% 99.8%  
189 0.6% 99.5%  
190 2% 98.9%  
191 3% 97%  
192 4% 94%  
193 5% 90%  
194 2% 85%  
195 1.0% 83%  
196 2% 82%  
197 4% 79%  
198 10% 75%  
199 14% 65%  
200 9% 51% Median
201 9% 42% Last Result
202 11% 34%  
203 8% 23%  
204 9% 15%  
205 4% 6%  
206 2% 2%  
207 0.4% 0.5%  
208 0.1% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.4% 99.8% Majority
176 2% 99.4%  
177 6% 98%  
178 5% 92%  
179 11% 87%  
180 8% 76% Median
181 16% 67%  
182 12% 52%  
183 11% 39%  
184 5% 29%  
185 4% 24%  
186 6% 20%  
187 3% 14%  
188 3% 11%  
189 2% 8%  
190 3% 5%  
191 1.4% 2%  
192 0.5% 0.7%  
193 0.2% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.2% 99.9%  
157 0.2% 99.7%  
158 1.1% 99.5%  
159 2% 98%  
160 2% 96%  
161 5% 94%  
162 4% 89%  
163 3% 85%  
164 2% 82%  
165 6% 80%  
166 9% 74%  
167 18% 65%  
168 8% 47% Median
169 7% 39%  
170 12% 32% Last Result
171 7% 20%  
172 9% 13%  
173 3% 5%  
174 0.9% 1.2%  
175 0.3% 0.3% Majority
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0.2% 99.9%  
157 0.5% 99.7%  
158 1.4% 99.3%  
159 3% 98%  
160 2% 95%  
161 3% 92%  
162 3% 89%  
163 6% 86%  
164 4% 80%  
165 5% 76%  
166 11% 71%  
167 12% 61% Median
168 16% 48%  
169 8% 33%  
170 11% 24%  
171 5% 13%  
172 6% 8%  
173 2% 2%  
174 0.4% 0.6%  
175 0.1% 0.2% Majority
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.1% 100%  
143 1.2% 99.9%  
144 0.8% 98.7%  
145 4% 98%  
146 10% 94%  
147 7% 85%  
148 19% 78% Median
149 9% 59%  
150 12% 50%  
151 8% 38%  
152 5% 29%  
153 4% 24%  
154 2% 20%  
155 3% 18%  
156 3% 15%  
157 4% 12%  
158 4% 8%  
159 1.4% 4%  
160 1.3% 2%  
161 0.4% 1.0%  
162 0.3% 0.5%  
163 0.2% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0.2% 99.9%  
138 0.4% 99.7%  
139 2% 99.3%  
140 3% 98%  
141 4% 95%  
142 3% 91%  
143 3% 88%  
144 4% 85% Last Result
145 7% 81%  
146 8% 74%  
147 14% 66%  
148 10% 52% Median
149 11% 41%  
150 14% 31%  
151 10% 17%  
152 3% 7%  
153 3% 5%  
154 1.0% 1.2%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0.2% 100%  
128 0.8% 99.8%  
129 0.7% 99.0%  
130 3% 98%  
131 8% 96%  
132 19% 88%  
133 13% 69% Median
134 12% 56%  
135 9% 44%  
136 6% 35%  
137 6% 28%  
138 3% 23%  
139 2% 20%  
140 1.3% 18%  
141 4% 17%  
142 2% 13%  
143 3% 11% Last Result
144 2% 7%  
145 3% 5%  
146 2% 2%  
147 0.5% 0.8%  
148 0.2% 0.2%  
149 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.8%  
128 0.9% 99.6%  
129 2% 98.7%  
130 3% 97%  
131 5% 94%  
132 4% 89% Last Result
133 5% 85%  
134 10% 80%  
135 9% 71%  
136 12% 62% Median
137 14% 49%  
138 13% 35%  
139 7% 22%  
140 8% 15%  
141 6% 8%  
142 1.2% 2%  
143 0.3% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0.1% 100%  
123 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
124 0.4% 99.4%  
125 2% 98.9%  
126 2% 97%  
127 5% 95%  
128 4% 91%  
129 2% 87%  
130 6% 85%  
131 10% 79%  
132 20% 69%  
133 13% 49% Median
134 12% 36%  
135 9% 24%  
136 6% 15%  
137 5% 9%  
138 2% 3%  
139 0.3% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0.4% 99.9%  
121 0.4% 99.6%  
122 0.8% 99.2%  
123 5% 98%  
124 3% 94%  
125 4% 90%  
126 3% 86%  
127 9% 83%  
128 13% 75% Last Result
129 10% 61%  
130 7% 51% Median
131 10% 44%  
132 18% 33%  
133 10% 16%  
134 2% 5%  
135 1.3% 3%  
136 2% 2%  
137 0.2% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 2% 99.7%  
109 1.4% 98%  
110 2% 96%  
111 6% 94%  
112 5% 88%  
113 11% 84%  
114 5% 73%  
115 17% 68%  
116 15% 51% Last Result, Median
117 8% 36%  
118 15% 28%  
119 4% 13%  
120 6% 9%  
121 3% 3%  
122 0.3% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.3% 99.9%  
98 0.9% 99.6%  
99 4% 98.7%  
100 6% 95%  
101 16% 89%  
102 16% 73% Median
103 7% 56%  
104 17% 49%  
105 7% 33%  
106 3% 26%  
107 3% 23%  
108 0.6% 20%  
109 0.5% 20%  
110 2% 19%  
111 4% 17%  
112 0.7% 14%  
113 4% 13%  
114 5% 9%  
115 0.8% 4%  
116 2% 3%  
117 0.2% 0.5%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.2% 100%  
94 0.4% 99.8%  
95 0.7% 99.4%  
96 3% 98.6%  
97 4% 96%  
98 3% 92%  
99 10% 90%  
100 8% 80%  
101 18% 72% Last Result
102 17% 54% Median
103 7% 37%  
104 17% 30%  
105 7% 13%  
106 3% 6%  
107 3% 3%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.2% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations