Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 5–25 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.3% | 25.2–27.4% | 24.9–27.8% | 24.7–28.0% | 24.2–28.6% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.5% | 17.6–19.5% | 17.3–19.8% | 17.1–20.0% | 16.6–20.5% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.4% | 17.4–19.4% | 17.2–19.7% | 16.9–19.9% | 16.5–20.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.7–10.2% | 8.5–10.4% | 8.3–10.6% | 8.0–11.0% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.3–9.7% | 8.1–10.0% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.6–10.5% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6–7.9% | 6.4–8.1% | 6.3–8.3% | 6.0–8.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1–6.2% | 4.9–6.4% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.2–4.2% | 3.1–4.3% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 96 | 92–100 | 90–102 | 89–103 | 87–105 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 68 | 64–72 | 63–73 | 62–74 | 60–76 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 67 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 62–73 | 59–75 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 34 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–40 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 33 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 29–38 | 28–39 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 26 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 23–30 | 22–32 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 20 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 91 | 4% | 95% | |
| 92 | 6% | 91% | |
| 93 | 5% | 85% | |
| 94 | 12% | 79% | |
| 95 | 12% | 67% | |
| 96 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 97 | 15% | 49% | |
| 98 | 10% | 34% | |
| 99 | 5% | 24% | |
| 100 | 9% | 19% | Last Result |
| 101 | 3% | 10% | |
| 102 | 2% | 7% | |
| 103 | 3% | 4% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 9% | 92% | |
| 65 | 7% | 83% | |
| 66 | 15% | 75% | |
| 67 | 9% | 60% | |
| 68 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 69 | 9% | 40% | |
| 70 | 11% | 31% | Last Result |
| 71 | 6% | 20% | |
| 72 | 8% | 13% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 94% | |
| 64 | 6% | 89% | |
| 65 | 8% | 83% | |
| 66 | 13% | 75% | |
| 67 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 68 | 14% | 50% | |
| 69 | 14% | 36% | |
| 70 | 7% | 22% | |
| 71 | 9% | 15% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 32 | 9% | 92% | |
| 33 | 17% | 83% | |
| 34 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 35 | 16% | 50% | |
| 36 | 16% | 34% | |
| 37 | 9% | 17% | |
| 38 | 5% | 9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 8% | 94% | |
| 31 | 12% | 85% | |
| 32 | 16% | 74% | |
| 33 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 34 | 15% | 40% | |
| 35 | 12% | 25% | |
| 36 | 7% | 13% | |
| 37 | 4% | 6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 23 | 4% | 98% | |
| 24 | 8% | 95% | |
| 25 | 17% | 87% | |
| 26 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 27 | 17% | 46% | |
| 28 | 15% | 29% | |
| 29 | 5% | 15% | |
| 30 | 7% | 9% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 17 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 6% | 97% | |
| 19 | 19% | 91% | |
| 20 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 21 | 14% | 48% | |
| 22 | 21% | 34% | |
| 23 | 9% | 13% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0% | 22% | |
| 4 | 0% | 22% | |
| 5 | 0% | 22% | |
| 6 | 0% | 22% | |
| 7 | 0% | 22% | |
| 8 | 0% | 22% | |
| 9 | 0% | 22% | |
| 10 | 0% | 22% | |
| 11 | 0% | 22% | |
| 12 | 0% | 22% | |
| 13 | 0% | 22% | |
| 14 | 5% | 22% | |
| 15 | 12% | 17% | |
| 16 | 4% | 5% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 199 | 100% | 192–205 | 189–206 | 187–207 | 185–209 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 187 | 100% | 182–194 | 181–196 | 180–197 | 177–199 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 164 | 0.5% | 158–170 | 156–171 | 154–172 | 152–175 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 162 | 0% | 155–167 | 153–168 | 152–169 | 150–172 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 154 | 0% | 148–162 | 147–164 | 146–165 | 144–167 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 150 | 0% | 144–155 | 141–157 | 140–157 | 138–160 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 131 | 0% | 126–140 | 124–142 | 123–144 | 122–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 135 | 0% | 129–141 | 128–142 | 126–143 | 123–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 129 | 0% | 124–134 | 122–136 | 121–137 | 118–139 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 129 | 0% | 123–134 | 121–135 | 120–137 | 118–138 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 117 | 0% | 112–122 | 110–123 | 108–124 | 107–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 105 | 0% | 99–115 | 98–116 | 97–118 | 96–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 102 | 0% | 97–107 | 96–108 | 95–109 | 92–111 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 186 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 187 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 188 | 2% | 97% | |
| 189 | 2% | 95% | |
| 190 | 2% | 94% | |
| 191 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 192 | 2% | 91% | |
| 193 | 5% | 88% | |
| 194 | 8% | 84% | |
| 195 | 3% | 75% | |
| 196 | 5% | 72% | |
| 197 | 8% | 67% | |
| 198 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 199 | 9% | 52% | |
| 200 | 7% | 43% | |
| 201 | 9% | 36% | Last Result |
| 202 | 6% | 27% | |
| 203 | 2% | 21% | |
| 204 | 8% | 19% | |
| 205 | 6% | 11% | |
| 206 | 2% | 5% | |
| 207 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 208 | 2% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 180 | 3% | 98% | |
| 181 | 4% | 95% | |
| 182 | 5% | 92% | |
| 183 | 7% | 87% | Median |
| 184 | 7% | 80% | |
| 185 | 7% | 73% | |
| 186 | 10% | 66% | |
| 187 | 8% | 56% | |
| 188 | 11% | 48% | |
| 189 | 8% | 37% | |
| 190 | 6% | 29% | |
| 191 | 4% | 23% | |
| 192 | 5% | 19% | |
| 193 | 3% | 14% | |
| 194 | 2% | 11% | |
| 195 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 196 | 3% | 7% | |
| 197 | 2% | 4% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 154 | 2% | 98% | |
| 155 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 156 | 2% | 95% | |
| 157 | 3% | 93% | |
| 158 | 5% | 91% | |
| 159 | 3% | 85% | |
| 160 | 5% | 82% | |
| 161 | 6% | 77% | |
| 162 | 8% | 71% | |
| 163 | 11% | 64% | |
| 164 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 165 | 8% | 46% | |
| 166 | 7% | 37% | |
| 167 | 10% | 30% | |
| 168 | 4% | 20% | |
| 169 | 4% | 16% | |
| 170 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 171 | 4% | 8% | |
| 172 | 2% | 4% | |
| 173 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 152 | 2% | 98% | |
| 153 | 3% | 96% | |
| 154 | 2% | 93% | Last Result |
| 155 | 2% | 92% | |
| 156 | 3% | 89% | |
| 157 | 5% | 86% | |
| 158 | 4% | 81% | |
| 159 | 6% | 77% | |
| 160 | 8% | 71% | |
| 161 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 162 | 8% | 52% | |
| 163 | 10% | 44% | |
| 164 | 7% | 34% | |
| 165 | 7% | 27% | |
| 166 | 7% | 20% | |
| 167 | 5% | 13% | |
| 168 | 4% | 8% | |
| 169 | 3% | 5% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 146 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 147 | 2% | 97% | |
| 148 | 5% | 95% | |
| 149 | 5% | 90% | |
| 150 | 5% | 84% | Median |
| 151 | 7% | 79% | |
| 152 | 8% | 71% | |
| 153 | 7% | 63% | |
| 154 | 10% | 56% | |
| 155 | 9% | 46% | |
| 156 | 7% | 37% | |
| 157 | 3% | 29% | |
| 158 | 5% | 26% | |
| 159 | 5% | 21% | |
| 160 | 3% | 16% | |
| 161 | 3% | 14% | |
| 162 | 3% | 11% | |
| 163 | 2% | 8% | |
| 164 | 3% | 5% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 140 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 142 | 2% | 95% | |
| 143 | 3% | 93% | |
| 144 | 3% | 90% | Last Result |
| 145 | 2% | 87% | |
| 146 | 8% | 85% | |
| 147 | 5% | 77% | |
| 148 | 6% | 72% | |
| 149 | 11% | 66% | Median |
| 150 | 10% | 56% | |
| 151 | 12% | 46% | |
| 152 | 12% | 34% | |
| 153 | 4% | 23% | |
| 154 | 6% | 19% | |
| 155 | 4% | 13% | |
| 156 | 2% | 9% | |
| 157 | 4% | 7% | |
| 158 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 123 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 124 | 3% | 97% | |
| 125 | 3% | 94% | |
| 126 | 3% | 92% | |
| 127 | 11% | 89% | |
| 128 | 9% | 78% | Median |
| 129 | 5% | 69% | |
| 130 | 6% | 64% | |
| 131 | 10% | 58% | |
| 132 | 8% | 48% | |
| 133 | 7% | 40% | |
| 134 | 7% | 33% | |
| 135 | 3% | 26% | |
| 136 | 3% | 23% | |
| 137 | 4% | 20% | |
| 138 | 2% | 16% | |
| 139 | 2% | 14% | |
| 140 | 3% | 11% | |
| 141 | 2% | 8% | |
| 142 | 2% | 6% | |
| 143 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 144 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 125 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 126 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 128 | 5% | 96% | |
| 129 | 2% | 92% | |
| 130 | 3% | 89% | |
| 131 | 6% | 86% | |
| 132 | 8% | 81% | Last Result |
| 133 | 6% | 72% | |
| 134 | 9% | 67% | |
| 135 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 136 | 7% | 43% | |
| 137 | 4% | 35% | |
| 138 | 12% | 32% | |
| 139 | 5% | 19% | |
| 140 | 3% | 14% | |
| 141 | 6% | 11% | |
| 142 | 3% | 5% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 121 | 3% | 98% | |
| 122 | 2% | 95% | |
| 123 | 2% | 93% | |
| 124 | 4% | 91% | |
| 125 | 4% | 87% | |
| 126 | 7% | 83% | |
| 127 | 10% | 76% | |
| 128 | 8% | 66% | Last Result |
| 129 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 130 | 12% | 48% | |
| 131 | 7% | 36% | |
| 132 | 9% | 29% | |
| 133 | 4% | 19% | |
| 134 | 7% | 16% | |
| 135 | 4% | 9% | |
| 136 | 2% | 5% | |
| 137 | 2% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 94% | |
| 123 | 3% | 92% | Last Result |
| 124 | 6% | 89% | |
| 125 | 7% | 83% | |
| 126 | 4% | 77% | |
| 127 | 12% | 73% | |
| 128 | 11% | 62% | Median |
| 129 | 7% | 51% | |
| 130 | 7% | 44% | |
| 131 | 10% | 37% | |
| 132 | 8% | 26% | |
| 133 | 6% | 19% | |
| 134 | 5% | 12% | |
| 135 | 2% | 7% | |
| 136 | 2% | 5% | |
| 137 | 2% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 110 | 2% | 96% | |
| 111 | 4% | 94% | |
| 112 | 5% | 90% | |
| 113 | 5% | 85% | |
| 114 | 6% | 80% | |
| 115 | 9% | 74% | |
| 116 | 10% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 117 | 12% | 55% | |
| 118 | 10% | 43% | |
| 119 | 12% | 34% | |
| 120 | 6% | 22% | |
| 121 | 4% | 15% | |
| 122 | 3% | 11% | |
| 123 | 4% | 8% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 3% | 98% | |
| 98 | 2% | 95% | |
| 99 | 5% | 93% | |
| 100 | 9% | 89% | |
| 101 | 7% | 80% | |
| 102 | 8% | 73% | Median |
| 103 | 6% | 65% | |
| 104 | 9% | 59% | |
| 105 | 9% | 51% | |
| 106 | 7% | 42% | |
| 107 | 7% | 35% | |
| 108 | 2% | 28% | |
| 109 | 3% | 25% | |
| 110 | 4% | 22% | |
| 111 | 2% | 18% | |
| 112 | 3% | 16% | |
| 113 | 2% | 13% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 115 | 2% | 10% | |
| 116 | 4% | 8% | |
| 117 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 119 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 4% | 96% | |
| 97 | 4% | 92% | |
| 98 | 5% | 88% | |
| 99 | 6% | 83% | |
| 100 | 10% | 76% | |
| 101 | 11% | 67% | Last Result |
| 102 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 103 | 6% | 46% | |
| 104 | 10% | 40% | |
| 105 | 9% | 30% | |
| 106 | 7% | 20% | |
| 107 | 7% | 13% | |
| 108 | 2% | 7% | |
| 109 | 2% | 5% | |
| 110 | 2% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 5–25 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2660
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.10%