Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 22–28 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 25.5% | 24.2–26.7% | 23.9–27.1% | 23.6–27.4% | 23.0–28.0% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 21.0% | 19.9–22.2% | 19.5–22.5% | 19.3–22.8% | 18.7–23.4% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.3% | 17.2–19.4% | 16.9–19.7% | 16.6–20.0% | 16.1–20.6% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.6–10.3% | 8.4–10.5% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.8–11.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.0–8.9% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.4–9.6% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.9% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.9% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 93 | 88–99 | 86–101 | 85–104 | 82–105 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 77 | 71–83 | 71–84 | 70–85 | 67–88 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 67 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 60–74 | 58–76 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 34 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–40 | 28–42 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 29 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 25–34 | 23–36 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 24–33 | 23–35 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 15 | 0–17 | 0–19 | 0–19 | 0–19 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98% | |
| 86 | 3% | 96% | |
| 87 | 3% | 93% | |
| 88 | 4% | 90% | |
| 89 | 10% | 86% | |
| 90 | 6% | 76% | |
| 91 | 8% | 70% | |
| 92 | 9% | 62% | |
| 93 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 94 | 9% | 45% | |
| 95 | 11% | 36% | |
| 96 | 5% | 25% | |
| 97 | 5% | 20% | |
| 98 | 5% | 16% | |
| 99 | 2% | 11% | |
| 100 | 2% | 9% | Last Result |
| 101 | 3% | 7% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 104 | 2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 6% | 96% | |
| 72 | 6% | 90% | |
| 73 | 5% | 84% | |
| 74 | 6% | 78% | |
| 75 | 6% | 73% | |
| 76 | 12% | 66% | |
| 77 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 78 | 12% | 44% | |
| 79 | 9% | 33% | |
| 80 | 5% | 24% | |
| 81 | 5% | 19% | |
| 82 | 3% | 14% | |
| 83 | 6% | 11% | |
| 84 | 2% | 5% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 3% | 93% | |
| 63 | 4% | 90% | |
| 64 | 9% | 86% | |
| 65 | 15% | 77% | |
| 66 | 9% | 62% | |
| 67 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 68 | 8% | 40% | |
| 69 | 6% | 31% | |
| 70 | 7% | 25% | Last Result |
| 71 | 8% | 18% | |
| 72 | 3% | 10% | |
| 73 | 4% | 7% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 30 | 4% | 96% | |
| 31 | 5% | 93% | Last Result |
| 32 | 12% | 88% | |
| 33 | 16% | 75% | |
| 34 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 46% | |
| 36 | 12% | 32% | |
| 37 | 7% | 20% | |
| 38 | 6% | 13% | |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 9% | 94% | |
| 27 | 11% | 85% | |
| 28 | 17% | 74% | Last Result |
| 29 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 40% | |
| 31 | 11% | 25% | |
| 32 | 6% | 13% | |
| 33 | 3% | 8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 25 | 7% | 95% | |
| 26 | 9% | 88% | |
| 27 | 16% | 79% | |
| 28 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 29 | 17% | 46% | |
| 30 | 13% | 28% | |
| 31 | 7% | 15% | |
| 32 | 4% | 8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 4% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 0% | 58% | |
| 3 | 0% | 58% | |
| 4 | 0% | 58% | |
| 5 | 0% | 58% | |
| 6 | 0% | 58% | |
| 7 | 0% | 58% | |
| 8 | 0% | 58% | |
| 9 | 0% | 58% | |
| 10 | 0% | 58% | |
| 11 | 0% | 58% | |
| 12 | 0% | 58% | |
| 13 | 0% | 58% | |
| 14 | 8% | 58% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 51% | Median |
| 16 | 25% | 50% | |
| 17 | 17% | 25% | |
| 18 | 2% | 7% | |
| 19 | 5% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 68% | |
| 2 | 0% | 68% | |
| 3 | 0% | 68% | |
| 4 | 0% | 68% | |
| 5 | 0% | 68% | |
| 6 | 0% | 68% | |
| 7 | 0% | 68% | |
| 8 | 0% | 68% | |
| 9 | 0% | 68% | |
| 10 | 0% | 68% | |
| 11 | 0% | 68% | |
| 12 | 0% | 68% | |
| 13 | 0% | 68% | |
| 14 | 2% | 68% | |
| 15 | 26% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 41% | Last Result |
| 17 | 17% | 26% | |
| 18 | 6% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 194 | 100% | 186–204 | 183–207 | 182–210 | 179–213 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 176 | 65% | 168–185 | 166–188 | 164–189 | 160–192 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 173 | 35% | 164–181 | 161–183 | 160–185 | 157–189 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 160 | 2% | 152–168 | 150–171 | 149–174 | 146–176 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 147 | 0% | 138–157 | 136–160 | 134–162 | 129–163 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 144 | 0% | 136–151 | 134–154 | 133–155 | 130–160 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 139 | 0% | 130–148 | 129–150 | 126–152 | 123–156 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 134 | 0% | 124–141 | 121–143 | 120–145 | 116–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 129 | 0% | 123–136 | 120–138 | 119–141 | 117–144 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 122 | 0% | 116–129 | 114–131 | 112–133 | 110–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 111 | 0% | 101–120 | 99–122 | 98–123 | 95–126 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 105 | 0% | 94–112 | 91–114 | 91–115 | 88–118 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 101 | 0% | 95–108 | 93–109 | 92–111 | 90–113 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 181 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 183 | 2% | 96% | |
| 184 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 185 | 4% | 94% | |
| 186 | 4% | 90% | |
| 187 | 8% | 86% | |
| 188 | 4% | 77% | |
| 189 | 2% | 74% | |
| 190 | 5% | 72% | |
| 191 | 3% | 67% | |
| 192 | 4% | 64% | |
| 193 | 6% | 60% | |
| 194 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 195 | 3% | 46% | |
| 196 | 11% | 43% | |
| 197 | 2% | 32% | |
| 198 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 199 | 5% | 29% | |
| 200 | 4% | 25% | |
| 201 | 6% | 20% | Last Result |
| 202 | 2% | 15% | |
| 203 | 2% | 12% | |
| 204 | 2% | 10% | |
| 205 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 206 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 207 | 2% | 7% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 210 | 3% | 4% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 166 | 3% | 96% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 168 | 3% | 93% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 170 | 4% | 88% | |
| 171 | 2% | 84% | |
| 172 | 5% | 82% | |
| 173 | 4% | 77% | |
| 174 | 7% | 73% | |
| 175 | 6% | 65% | Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 59% | |
| 177 | 5% | 49% | |
| 178 | 3% | 44% | |
| 179 | 6% | 41% | |
| 180 | 4% | 35% | |
| 181 | 7% | 31% | |
| 182 | 4% | 24% | |
| 183 | 5% | 20% | |
| 184 | 3% | 15% | |
| 185 | 2% | 12% | |
| 186 | 2% | 10% | Median |
| 187 | 2% | 8% | |
| 188 | 2% | 5% | |
| 189 | 2% | 4% | |
| 190 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 160 | 2% | 98% | |
| 161 | 2% | 96% | |
| 162 | 2% | 95% | |
| 163 | 2% | 92% | |
| 164 | 2% | 90% | |
| 165 | 3% | 88% | |
| 166 | 5% | 85% | |
| 167 | 4% | 80% | |
| 168 | 7% | 76% | |
| 169 | 4% | 69% | |
| 170 | 6% | 65% | |
| 171 | 3% | 59% | |
| 172 | 5% | 56% | Median |
| 173 | 10% | 51% | |
| 174 | 6% | 41% | |
| 175 | 7% | 35% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 27% | |
| 177 | 5% | 23% | |
| 178 | 2% | 18% | |
| 179 | 4% | 16% | |
| 180 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 181 | 3% | 11% | |
| 182 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 183 | 3% | 7% | |
| 184 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 148 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 149 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 150 | 2% | 96% | |
| 151 | 2% | 95% | |
| 152 | 3% | 93% | |
| 153 | 2% | 90% | |
| 154 | 8% | 87% | |
| 155 | 5% | 79% | |
| 156 | 6% | 74% | |
| 157 | 4% | 68% | |
| 158 | 8% | 64% | |
| 159 | 5% | 55% | |
| 160 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 161 | 6% | 42% | |
| 162 | 5% | 36% | |
| 163 | 3% | 31% | |
| 164 | 5% | 28% | |
| 165 | 3% | 23% | |
| 166 | 2% | 19% | |
| 167 | 5% | 17% | |
| 168 | 2% | 12% | |
| 169 | 2% | 10% | |
| 170 | 1.5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 6% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 175 | 1.4% | 2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 136 | 2% | 97% | |
| 137 | 2% | 94% | |
| 138 | 2% | 92% | |
| 139 | 4% | 90% | |
| 140 | 2% | 86% | |
| 141 | 2% | 84% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 82% | |
| 143 | 2% | 81% | |
| 144 | 8% | 79% | |
| 145 | 9% | 71% | |
| 146 | 10% | 62% | |
| 147 | 6% | 52% | |
| 148 | 3% | 45% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 42% | |
| 150 | 1.3% | 41% | |
| 151 | 3% | 40% | |
| 152 | 3% | 37% | |
| 153 | 11% | 34% | |
| 154 | 6% | 23% | |
| 155 | 5% | 16% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 157 | 0.8% | 10% | Median |
| 158 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 159 | 2% | 8% | |
| 160 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 161 | 2% | 5% | |
| 162 | 2% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 133 | 2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 2% | 96% | |
| 135 | 2% | 94% | |
| 136 | 3% | 92% | |
| 137 | 4% | 89% | |
| 138 | 3% | 85% | |
| 139 | 4% | 82% | |
| 140 | 7% | 78% | |
| 141 | 4% | 71% | |
| 142 | 6% | 67% | |
| 143 | 4% | 61% | |
| 144 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 145 | 8% | 45% | |
| 146 | 6% | 37% | |
| 147 | 7% | 32% | |
| 148 | 4% | 25% | |
| 149 | 4% | 20% | |
| 150 | 5% | 16% | |
| 151 | 3% | 11% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 154 | 2% | 5% | |
| 155 | 2% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 126 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 129 | 5% | 95% | |
| 130 | 4% | 90% | |
| 131 | 2% | 86% | |
| 132 | 2% | 84% | |
| 133 | 5% | 82% | |
| 134 | 4% | 77% | |
| 135 | 2% | 72% | |
| 136 | 8% | 70% | |
| 137 | 3% | 62% | |
| 138 | 6% | 58% | |
| 139 | 5% | 52% | |
| 140 | 3% | 47% | |
| 141 | 4% | 44% | |
| 142 | 7% | 40% | |
| 143 | 6% | 33% | Last Result |
| 144 | 4% | 27% | Median |
| 145 | 6% | 24% | |
| 146 | 4% | 18% | |
| 147 | 3% | 13% | |
| 148 | 2% | 11% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 150 | 3% | 7% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 152 | 2% | 4% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98% | |
| 121 | 3% | 95% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 123 | 2% | 92% | |
| 124 | 2% | 90% | |
| 125 | 7% | 88% | |
| 126 | 2% | 82% | |
| 127 | 2% | 80% | |
| 128 | 3% | 77% | |
| 129 | 3% | 75% | |
| 130 | 4% | 71% | |
| 131 | 4% | 68% | |
| 132 | 7% | 63% | |
| 133 | 4% | 56% | |
| 134 | 6% | 52% | |
| 135 | 7% | 46% | |
| 136 | 3% | 39% | |
| 137 | 9% | 36% | Median |
| 138 | 4% | 26% | |
| 139 | 4% | 23% | |
| 140 | 4% | 18% | |
| 141 | 6% | 15% | |
| 142 | 2% | 9% | |
| 143 | 2% | 6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 145 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 120 | 3% | 97% | |
| 121 | 2% | 95% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 123 | 2% | 91% | Last Result |
| 124 | 6% | 88% | |
| 125 | 5% | 83% | |
| 126 | 8% | 77% | |
| 127 | 7% | 69% | |
| 128 | 7% | 62% | |
| 129 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 130 | 6% | 46% | |
| 131 | 7% | 40% | |
| 132 | 3% | 34% | |
| 133 | 6% | 31% | |
| 134 | 5% | 25% | |
| 135 | 3% | 20% | |
| 136 | 7% | 16% | |
| 137 | 2% | 9% | |
| 138 | 3% | 7% | |
| 139 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 112 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 113 | 2% | 97% | |
| 114 | 2% | 95% | |
| 115 | 3% | 93% | |
| 116 | 5% | 91% | |
| 117 | 9% | 86% | |
| 118 | 4% | 76% | |
| 119 | 5% | 73% | |
| 120 | 9% | 68% | |
| 121 | 7% | 59% | |
| 122 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 123 | 5% | 44% | |
| 124 | 5% | 39% | |
| 125 | 10% | 34% | |
| 126 | 5% | 23% | |
| 127 | 5% | 18% | |
| 128 | 2% | 14% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 12% | |
| 130 | 3% | 9% | |
| 131 | 2% | 7% | |
| 132 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 133 | 2% | 4% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 98 | 3% | 98% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 100 | 3% | 95% | |
| 101 | 4% | 92% | |
| 102 | 2% | 88% | |
| 103 | 4% | 86% | |
| 104 | 3% | 82% | |
| 105 | 3% | 78% | |
| 106 | 7% | 75% | |
| 107 | 3% | 68% | |
| 108 | 5% | 66% | |
| 109 | 4% | 61% | |
| 110 | 3% | 56% | |
| 111 | 4% | 54% | |
| 112 | 5% | 49% | |
| 113 | 3% | 44% | |
| 114 | 8% | 40% | |
| 115 | 4% | 32% | |
| 116 | 6% | 28% | Median |
| 117 | 4% | 23% | |
| 118 | 2% | 18% | |
| 119 | 6% | 16% | |
| 120 | 2% | 11% | |
| 121 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 122 | 3% | 6% | |
| 123 | 2% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 91 | 3% | 98% | |
| 92 | 2% | 94% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 94 | 4% | 92% | |
| 95 | 4% | 88% | |
| 96 | 2% | 84% | |
| 97 | 3% | 82% | |
| 98 | 3% | 79% | |
| 99 | 2% | 76% | |
| 100 | 2% | 74% | |
| 101 | 6% | 73% | |
| 102 | 2% | 67% | |
| 103 | 2% | 65% | |
| 104 | 9% | 62% | |
| 105 | 7% | 54% | |
| 106 | 3% | 47% | |
| 107 | 10% | 44% | |
| 108 | 6% | 34% | Median |
| 109 | 4% | 28% | |
| 110 | 5% | 24% | |
| 111 | 8% | 19% | |
| 112 | 3% | 10% | |
| 113 | 2% | 7% | |
| 114 | 2% | 5% | |
| 115 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 93 | 2% | 97% | |
| 94 | 2% | 95% | |
| 95 | 3% | 93% | |
| 96 | 5% | 89% | |
| 97 | 5% | 85% | |
| 98 | 10% | 79% | |
| 99 | 9% | 69% | |
| 100 | 5% | 60% | |
| 101 | 8% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 102 | 7% | 47% | |
| 103 | 7% | 40% | |
| 104 | 7% | 33% | |
| 105 | 5% | 26% | |
| 106 | 8% | 21% | |
| 107 | 2% | 13% | |
| 108 | 4% | 10% | |
| 109 | 3% | 6% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 22–28 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2015
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.79%