Opinion Poll by Demoskop, 27 August–3 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 24.1% | 22.8–25.6% | 22.4–26.0% | 22.1–26.3% | 21.5–27.0% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 21.5% | 20.3–22.9% | 19.9–23.3% | 19.6–23.6% | 19.0–24.3% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.5% | 18.3–20.8% | 17.9–21.2% | 17.6–21.5% | 17.1–22.1% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.6–9.4% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.2–9.9% | 6.8–10.4% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6–9.4% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.2–9.9% | 6.8–10.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.1–8.3% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.7–6.5% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.4% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.8% | 3.4–6.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 86 | 82–91 | 80–92 | 79–93 | 78–96 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 77 | 72–82 | 71–83 | 70–85 | 68–87 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 70 | 65–74 | 64–76 | 63–77 | 61–80 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 26–35 | 24–37 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 30 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–28 | 18–29 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 0–21 | 0–22 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 17 | 14–19 | 0–20 | 0–20 | 0–22 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 96% | |
| 81 | 3% | 94% | |
| 82 | 6% | 92% | |
| 83 | 12% | 86% | |
| 84 | 10% | 74% | |
| 85 | 6% | 64% | |
| 86 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 87 | 16% | 45% | |
| 88 | 9% | 29% | |
| 89 | 5% | 20% | |
| 90 | 6% | 16% | |
| 91 | 5% | 10% | |
| 92 | 2% | 5% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 96% | |
| 72 | 5% | 93% | |
| 73 | 6% | 88% | |
| 74 | 10% | 82% | |
| 75 | 11% | 72% | |
| 76 | 10% | 61% | |
| 77 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 38% | |
| 79 | 8% | 30% | |
| 80 | 6% | 22% | |
| 81 | 5% | 16% | |
| 82 | 4% | 11% | |
| 83 | 2% | 7% | |
| 84 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 85 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 3% | 96% | |
| 65 | 6% | 92% | |
| 66 | 6% | 86% | |
| 67 | 8% | 81% | |
| 68 | 9% | 73% | |
| 69 | 12% | 64% | |
| 70 | 12% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 11% | 40% | |
| 72 | 10% | 29% | |
| 73 | 7% | 19% | |
| 74 | 4% | 12% | |
| 75 | 3% | 8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 5% | 98% | |
| 27 | 7% | 93% | |
| 28 | 11% | 86% | |
| 29 | 15% | 75% | |
| 30 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 45% | Last Result |
| 32 | 13% | 32% | |
| 33 | 10% | 19% | |
| 34 | 5% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 6% | 94% | |
| 28 | 12% | 88% | Last Result |
| 29 | 15% | 75% | |
| 30 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 43% | |
| 32 | 10% | 29% | |
| 33 | 8% | 18% | |
| 34 | 6% | 11% | |
| 35 | 3% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 20 | 5% | 97% | |
| 21 | 10% | 91% | |
| 22 | 17% | 82% | Last Result |
| 23 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 24 | 13% | 45% | |
| 25 | 16% | 33% | |
| 26 | 8% | 17% | |
| 27 | 5% | 9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 0% | 97% | |
| 9 | 0% | 97% | |
| 10 | 0% | 97% | |
| 11 | 0% | 97% | |
| 12 | 0% | 97% | |
| 13 | 0% | 97% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 15 | 8% | 96% | |
| 16 | 14% | 88% | Last Result |
| 17 | 24% | 74% | |
| 18 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 19 | 14% | 28% | |
| 20 | 8% | 13% | |
| 21 | 4% | 6% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 0% | 92% | |
| 8 | 0% | 92% | |
| 9 | 0% | 92% | |
| 10 | 0% | 92% | |
| 11 | 0% | 92% | |
| 12 | 0% | 92% | |
| 13 | 0% | 92% | |
| 14 | 4% | 92% | |
| 15 | 15% | 88% | |
| 16 | 21% | 74% | |
| 17 | 21% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 31% | |
| 19 | 9% | 16% | |
| 20 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 185 | 99.1% | 179–192 | 178–194 | 176–198 | 174–203 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 180 | 86% | 173–184 | 170–186 | 168–187 | 164–190 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 169 | 14% | 165–176 | 163–179 | 162–181 | 159–185 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 156 | 0.1% | 150–162 | 148–164 | 146–166 | 144–170 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 146 | 0% | 141–152 | 140–155 | 138–157 | 136–160 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 150 | 0% | 142–155 | 139–156 | 136–157 | 132–160 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 139 | 0% | 133–144 | 130–146 | 127–147 | 123–150 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 133 | 0% | 129–137 | 128–139 | 126–141 | 120–144 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 123 | 0% | 117–129 | 117–131 | 115–133 | 113–137 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 116 | 0% | 111–121 | 110–123 | 109–125 | 107–128 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 116 | 0% | 109–121 | 105–123 | 103–124 | 99–126 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 103 | 0% | 99–108 | 98–109 | 95–110 | 89–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 100 | 0% | 95–105 | 93–107 | 92–109 | 90–111 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 177 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 178 | 2% | 96% | |
| 179 | 4% | 94% | |
| 180 | 4% | 90% | |
| 181 | 5% | 86% | |
| 182 | 5% | 81% | |
| 183 | 8% | 76% | |
| 184 | 8% | 68% | |
| 185 | 11% | 60% | |
| 186 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 187 | 8% | 43% | |
| 188 | 8% | 35% | |
| 189 | 7% | 27% | |
| 190 | 5% | 20% | |
| 191 | 5% | 15% | |
| 192 | 2% | 11% | |
| 193 | 2% | 9% | |
| 194 | 2% | 7% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 168 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 169 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 171 | 3% | 95% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 173 | 2% | 91% | |
| 174 | 3% | 89% | |
| 175 | 6% | 86% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 81% | |
| 177 | 7% | 78% | |
| 178 | 5% | 71% | |
| 179 | 12% | 65% | |
| 180 | 12% | 54% | |
| 181 | 9% | 42% | Median |
| 182 | 11% | 32% | |
| 183 | 3% | 22% | |
| 184 | 9% | 18% | |
| 185 | 3% | 10% | |
| 186 | 3% | 6% | |
| 187 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 188 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 161 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 163 | 3% | 97% | |
| 164 | 3% | 94% | |
| 165 | 9% | 90% | |
| 166 | 3% | 82% | |
| 167 | 11% | 78% | |
| 168 | 9% | 68% | |
| 169 | 12% | 58% | |
| 170 | 12% | 46% | Median |
| 171 | 5% | 35% | |
| 172 | 7% | 29% | |
| 173 | 3% | 22% | |
| 174 | 6% | 19% | |
| 175 | 3% | 14% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 11% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 178 | 3% | 8% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 148 | 2% | 96% | |
| 149 | 3% | 94% | |
| 150 | 3% | 91% | |
| 151 | 8% | 88% | |
| 152 | 9% | 80% | |
| 153 | 6% | 71% | |
| 154 | 7% | 65% | |
| 155 | 6% | 58% | |
| 156 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 157 | 14% | 45% | |
| 158 | 4% | 30% | |
| 159 | 10% | 26% | |
| 160 | 4% | 16% | |
| 161 | 2% | 13% | |
| 162 | 4% | 11% | |
| 163 | 2% | 7% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 167 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 138 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 139 | 2% | 97% | |
| 140 | 4% | 95% | |
| 141 | 5% | 91% | |
| 142 | 6% | 86% | |
| 143 | 6% | 80% | |
| 144 | 9% | 74% | |
| 145 | 11% | 65% | |
| 146 | 9% | 55% | |
| 147 | 10% | 46% | Median |
| 148 | 7% | 35% | |
| 149 | 7% | 29% | |
| 150 | 5% | 22% | |
| 151 | 6% | 17% | |
| 152 | 2% | 11% | |
| 153 | 2% | 9% | |
| 154 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 155 | 2% | 5% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 138 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 141 | 2% | 93% | |
| 142 | 2% | 91% | |
| 143 | 3% | 89% | |
| 144 | 3% | 87% | |
| 145 | 4% | 83% | |
| 146 | 4% | 80% | |
| 147 | 7% | 75% | |
| 148 | 8% | 69% | |
| 149 | 9% | 60% | |
| 150 | 8% | 52% | |
| 151 | 12% | 44% | Median |
| 152 | 5% | 32% | |
| 153 | 11% | 27% | |
| 154 | 4% | 16% | |
| 155 | 4% | 11% | |
| 156 | 3% | 8% | |
| 157 | 2% | 4% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 126 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 129 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 130 | 2% | 96% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 132 | 2% | 93% | |
| 133 | 3% | 91% | |
| 134 | 3% | 88% | |
| 135 | 4% | 85% | |
| 136 | 7% | 81% | |
| 137 | 7% | 74% | |
| 138 | 10% | 67% | |
| 139 | 10% | 57% | |
| 140 | 10% | 47% | Median |
| 141 | 9% | 38% | |
| 142 | 8% | 29% | |
| 143 | 5% | 21% | Last Result |
| 144 | 5% | 15% | |
| 145 | 3% | 10% | |
| 146 | 2% | 7% | |
| 147 | 2% | 4% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 127 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 128 | 3% | 96% | |
| 129 | 4% | 93% | |
| 130 | 6% | 89% | |
| 131 | 8% | 83% | |
| 132 | 13% | 75% | |
| 133 | 14% | 61% | |
| 134 | 11% | 48% | Median |
| 135 | 10% | 37% | |
| 136 | 10% | 26% | |
| 137 | 7% | 17% | |
| 138 | 4% | 10% | |
| 139 | 2% | 6% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 115 | 2% | 98% | |
| 116 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 117 | 6% | 95% | |
| 118 | 3% | 89% | |
| 119 | 5% | 86% | |
| 120 | 7% | 81% | |
| 121 | 10% | 74% | |
| 122 | 6% | 64% | |
| 123 | 12% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 124 | 8% | 46% | |
| 125 | 11% | 38% | |
| 126 | 6% | 27% | |
| 127 | 4% | 20% | |
| 128 | 3% | 16% | |
| 129 | 5% | 13% | |
| 130 | 3% | 8% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 110 | 3% | 97% | |
| 111 | 5% | 94% | |
| 112 | 3% | 90% | |
| 113 | 12% | 86% | |
| 114 | 7% | 75% | |
| 115 | 12% | 68% | |
| 116 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 117 | 7% | 44% | |
| 118 | 15% | 37% | |
| 119 | 4% | 22% | |
| 120 | 8% | 18% | |
| 121 | 3% | 11% | |
| 122 | 2% | 8% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | |
| 124 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 108 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 109 | 3% | 92% | |
| 110 | 3% | 89% | |
| 111 | 4% | 86% | |
| 112 | 3% | 82% | |
| 113 | 4% | 79% | |
| 114 | 5% | 75% | |
| 115 | 12% | 70% | |
| 116 | 11% | 58% | |
| 117 | 18% | 47% | Median |
| 118 | 7% | 29% | |
| 119 | 6% | 22% | |
| 120 | 4% | 16% | |
| 121 | 3% | 12% | Last Result |
| 122 | 2% | 8% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 98 | 3% | 95% | |
| 99 | 7% | 92% | |
| 100 | 5% | 86% | |
| 101 | 9% | 81% | |
| 102 | 9% | 72% | |
| 103 | 13% | 63% | |
| 104 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 105 | 16% | 36% | |
| 106 | 5% | 21% | |
| 107 | 5% | 16% | |
| 108 | 5% | 10% | |
| 109 | 2% | 5% | |
| 110 | 2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 3% | 96% | |
| 94 | 3% | 93% | |
| 95 | 5% | 91% | |
| 96 | 5% | 86% | |
| 97 | 8% | 80% | |
| 98 | 9% | 72% | |
| 99 | 6% | 63% | |
| 100 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 101 | 14% | 45% | Last Result |
| 102 | 7% | 31% | |
| 103 | 9% | 24% | |
| 104 | 3% | 15% | |
| 105 | 4% | 12% | |
| 106 | 2% | 8% | |
| 107 | 2% | 6% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 110 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27 August–3 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1611
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.84%