Opinion Poll by Sifo, 2–12 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 25.8% 25.2–26.4% 25.0–26.6% 24.9–26.7% 24.6–27.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 20.2% 19.6–20.7% 19.5–20.9% 19.4–21.0% 19.1–21.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 18.9% 18.4–19.4% 18.2–19.6% 18.1–19.7% 17.8–20.0%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.6% 8.2–9.0% 8.1–9.1% 8.0–9.2% 7.8–9.4%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.5% 8.1–8.9% 8.0–9.0% 7.9–9.1% 7.8–9.3%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 7.3% 7.0–7.7% 6.9–7.8% 6.8–7.9% 6.6–8.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 5.1% 4.8–5.4% 4.7–5.5% 4.6–5.6% 4.5–5.7%
Liberalerna 5.5% 4.2% 3.9–4.5% 3.9–4.6% 3.8–4.6% 3.7–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 92 90–95 89–96 88–97 87–98
Sverigedemokraterna 62 72 70–74 69–75 69–76 68–77
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 67 65–70 65–71 64–71 63–73
Centerpartiet 31 31 29–32 29–33 29–33 28–34
Vänsterpartiet 28 31 29–32 29–32 28–33 28–34
Kristdemokraterna 22 26 25–27 24–28 24–28 24–29
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Liberalerna 20 15 0–16 0–16 0–16 0–17

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.7% 99.9%  
88 3% 99.2%  
89 5% 96%  
90 21% 91%  
91 15% 70%  
92 20% 55% Median
93 14% 35%  
94 7% 20%  
95 6% 13%  
96 3% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.2% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 100%  
68 2% 99.8%  
69 6% 98%  
70 17% 92%  
71 25% 75%  
72 19% 50% Median
73 15% 31%  
74 8% 16%  
75 4% 8%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.7% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.9% 99.9%  
64 2% 99.0%  
65 18% 97%  
66 17% 79%  
67 21% 62% Median
68 13% 41%  
69 17% 28%  
70 5% 10% Last Result
71 4% 6%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.7% 0.8%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 11% 98%  
30 30% 87%  
31 31% 57% Last Result, Median
32 19% 26%  
33 6% 7%  
34 1.0% 1.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 4% 99.7% Last Result
29 13% 96%  
30 33% 83%  
31 31% 50% Median
32 15% 19%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.7% 0.7%  
35 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0.5% 100%  
24 7% 99.5%  
25 29% 92%  
26 45% 64% Median
27 13% 19%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100% Last Result
17 21% 98%  
18 44% 77% Median
19 22% 33%  
20 9% 10%  
21 1.1% 1.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 0% 85%  
2 0% 85%  
3 0% 85%  
4 0% 85%  
5 0% 85%  
6 0% 85%  
7 0% 85%  
8 0% 85%  
9 0% 85%  
10 0% 85%  
11 0% 85%  
12 0% 85%  
13 0% 85%  
14 17% 85%  
15 45% 68% Median
16 20% 22%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 189 100% 186–196 186–198 185–199 184–201
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 185 99.4% 179–187 177–188 177–188 174–189
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 164 0.6% 162–170 161–172 161–172 160–175
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 159 0% 156–165 155–166 154–167 154–169
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 154 0% 147–158 146–158 145–158 143–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 140 0% 138–145 137–147 136–148 135–150
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 139 0% 136–143 135–145 135–146 134–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 138 0% 129–140 128–141 126–141 125–143
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 123 0% 121–128 120–130 119–130 119–132
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 123 0% 120–126 119–128 118–129 117–131
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 110 0% 107–114 107–115 106–116 105–118
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 112 0% 103–115 101–115 100–115 98–117
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 98 0% 95–101 94–103 94–104 93–105

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0.2% 100%  
184 0.8% 99.7%  
185 2% 98.9%  
186 7% 96%  
187 9% 90%  
188 20% 80%  
189 20% 60%  
190 14% 40% Median
191 5% 26%  
192 4% 21%  
193 2% 17%  
194 1.3% 15%  
195 1.4% 14%  
196 3% 13%  
197 2% 9%  
198 4% 7%  
199 0.9% 3%  
200 1.3% 2%  
201 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
202 0.1% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0.1% 100%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.4% 99.8%  
175 0.5% 99.4% Majority
176 1.1% 98.9%  
177 3% 98%  
178 4% 95%  
179 3% 91%  
180 2% 87%  
181 2% 85%  
182 2% 83%  
183 7% 81%  
184 20% 74%  
185 11% 54%  
186 22% 43%  
187 13% 20% Median
188 6% 8%  
189 2% 2%  
190 0.2% 0.2%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0.2% 100%  
160 2% 99.8%  
161 6% 98%  
162 13% 92%  
163 22% 80%  
164 11% 57%  
165 20% 46% Median
166 7% 26%  
167 2% 19%  
168 2% 17%  
169 2% 15%  
170 3% 13%  
171 4% 9%  
172 3% 5%  
173 1.1% 2%  
174 0.5% 1.1%  
175 0.4% 0.6% Majority
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0.1% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0.1% 100%  
153 0.4% 99.9%  
154 3% 99.5%  
155 4% 97%  
156 8% 93%  
157 11% 86%  
158 24% 75%  
159 21% 50% Median
160 9% 29%  
161 3% 21%  
162 2% 18%  
163 2% 15%  
164 2% 13%  
165 6% 11%  
166 2% 5%  
167 2% 3%  
168 0.6% 1.3%  
169 0.3% 0.6%  
170 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.2% 99.9%  
143 0.6% 99.7%  
144 1.1% 99.1%  
145 2% 98%  
146 4% 96%  
147 4% 92%  
148 1.2% 88%  
149 2% 86%  
150 0.7% 85%  
151 2% 84%  
152 3% 83%  
153 15% 79%  
154 15% 65%  
155 20% 50%  
156 12% 30% Median
157 6% 18%  
158 9% 11%  
159 2% 2%  
160 0.4% 0.5%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0.2% 100%  
135 0.6% 99.8%  
136 2% 99.1%  
137 3% 97%  
138 22% 95%  
139 12% 73%  
140 15% 61%  
141 15% 45% Median
142 13% 30%  
143 2% 17%  
144 2% 15% Last Result
145 5% 13%  
146 2% 9%  
147 4% 7%  
148 2% 3%  
149 0.6% 1.2%  
150 0.4% 0.5%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0.4% 100%  
134 2% 99.5%  
135 7% 98%  
136 10% 91%  
137 15% 81%  
138 14% 66%  
139 14% 52% Median
140 16% 38%  
141 6% 22%  
142 2% 16%  
143 4% 14%  
144 3% 10%  
145 4% 7%  
146 2% 3%  
147 1.2% 2%  
148 0.4% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.2% 100%  
125 2% 99.8%  
126 0.9% 98%  
127 1.5% 97%  
128 4% 96%  
129 2% 92%  
130 4% 90%  
131 1.0% 86%  
132 0.7% 85%  
133 0.5% 85%  
134 3% 84%  
135 3% 82%  
136 12% 78%  
137 14% 66%  
138 18% 52%  
139 13% 35% Median
140 14% 21%  
141 5% 7%  
142 1.3% 2%  
143 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.3% 99.9%  
119 2% 99.7%  
120 5% 97%  
121 8% 92%  
122 18% 84%  
123 19% 66% Last Result
124 14% 47% Median
125 13% 33%  
126 5% 20%  
127 3% 15%  
128 4% 12%  
129 2% 8%  
130 4% 5%  
131 1.0% 2%  
132 0.6% 0.8%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.1% 100%  
117 1.1% 99.8%  
118 2% 98.7%  
119 3% 97%  
120 21% 94%  
121 14% 73%  
122 9% 59%  
123 27% 50% Median
124 6% 23%  
125 3% 16%  
126 4% 13%  
127 3% 9%  
128 2% 7% Last Result
129 3% 4%  
130 0.4% 0.9%  
131 0.4% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.2% 100%  
105 0.5% 99.8%  
106 2% 99.3%  
107 8% 97%  
108 18% 89%  
109 20% 71%  
110 8% 51% Median
111 21% 43%  
112 5% 22%  
113 6% 17%  
114 3% 11%  
115 3% 7%  
116 2% 4% Last Result
117 0.8% 2%  
118 0.6% 0.8%  
119 0.2% 0.2%  
120 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.4% 99.9%  
99 2% 99.5%  
100 1.3% 98%  
101 3% 96%  
102 3% 93%  
103 2% 90%  
104 3% 88%  
105 0.5% 85%  
106 0.2% 85%  
107 0.1% 85%  
108 0.9% 84%  
109 3% 84%  
110 12% 81%  
111 11% 68%  
112 17% 58%  
113 17% 41% Median
114 8% 24%  
115 13% 16%  
116 2% 2%  
117 0.6% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.2%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.2% 100%  
93 0.9% 99.8%  
94 4% 98.9%  
95 7% 95%  
96 16% 88%  
97 21% 72%  
98 15% 51% Median
99 10% 36%  
100 12% 26%  
101 5% 14% Last Result
102 4% 9%  
103 3% 6%  
104 3% 3%  
105 0.5% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations