Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 10–23 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.0% | 24.6–27.5% | 24.2–27.9% | 23.9–28.3% | 23.2–29.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.0% | 17.8–20.3% | 17.4–20.7% | 17.1–21.0% | 16.5–21.7% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.0% | 17.8–20.3% | 17.4–20.7% | 17.1–21.0% | 16.5–21.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.2–11.0% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.2–11.0% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 92 | 87–97 | 85–99 | 84–100 | 82–103 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 67 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 60–74 | 58–77 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 67 | 63–72 | 61–73 | 60–74 | 58–77 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 32 | 28–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 | 25–39 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 31 | 29–35 | 27–36 | 26–36 | 26–39 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 25 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 21–30 | 19–31 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 17 | 16–20 | 14–22 | 0–22 | 0–22 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 18 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–22 | 0–23 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 96% | |
| 86 | 4% | 94% | |
| 87 | 4% | 91% | |
| 88 | 4% | 86% | |
| 89 | 10% | 82% | |
| 90 | 11% | 71% | |
| 91 | 6% | 61% | |
| 92 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 93 | 11% | 45% | |
| 94 | 8% | 34% | |
| 95 | 9% | 26% | |
| 96 | 5% | 17% | |
| 97 | 3% | 12% | |
| 98 | 3% | 9% | |
| 99 | 2% | 6% | |
| 100 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 101 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 6% | 94% | |
| 63 | 8% | 88% | |
| 64 | 11% | 80% | |
| 65 | 8% | 69% | |
| 66 | 12% | 62% | |
| 67 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 43% | |
| 69 | 7% | 33% | |
| 70 | 8% | 26% | Last Result |
| 71 | 4% | 17% | |
| 72 | 7% | 13% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 91% | |
| 64 | 11% | 86% | |
| 65 | 7% | 74% | |
| 66 | 13% | 67% | |
| 67 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 68 | 11% | 48% | |
| 69 | 12% | 37% | |
| 70 | 9% | 25% | |
| 71 | 5% | 15% | |
| 72 | 3% | 10% | |
| 73 | 2% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98% | |
| 28 | 8% | 97% | |
| 29 | 7% | 88% | |
| 30 | 13% | 81% | |
| 31 | 13% | 68% | Last Result |
| 32 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 38% | |
| 34 | 9% | 24% | |
| 35 | 7% | 15% | |
| 36 | 5% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 4% | 97% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 29 | 4% | 93% | |
| 30 | 21% | 89% | |
| 31 | 26% | 68% | Median |
| 32 | 8% | 42% | |
| 33 | 3% | 34% | |
| 34 | 12% | 31% | |
| 35 | 13% | 19% | |
| 36 | 4% | 7% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 4% | 98% | |
| 22 | 9% | 93% | Last Result |
| 23 | 12% | 84% | |
| 24 | 15% | 73% | |
| 25 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 26 | 14% | 38% | |
| 27 | 10% | 23% | |
| 28 | 7% | 13% | |
| 29 | 3% | 6% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 0% | 95% | |
| 8 | 0% | 95% | |
| 9 | 0% | 95% | |
| 10 | 0% | 95% | |
| 11 | 0% | 95% | |
| 12 | 0% | 95% | |
| 13 | 0% | 95% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 16 | 26% | 94% | |
| 17 | 22% | 68% | Median |
| 18 | 0% | 46% | |
| 19 | 34% | 46% | |
| 20 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 22 | 6% | 7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98% | |
| 15 | 6% | 95% | |
| 16 | 14% | 89% | Last Result |
| 17 | 22% | 75% | |
| 18 | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 19 | 17% | 37% | |
| 20 | 10% | 20% | |
| 21 | 6% | 10% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 191 | 100% | 184–197 | 182–199 | 181–202 | 179–207 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 191 | 99.6% | 184–196 | 182–198 | 180–199 | 175–202 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 158 | 0.4% | 153–165 | 151–167 | 150–169 | 147–174 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 159 | 0.3% | 152–165 | 151–167 | 150–169 | 147–174 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 159 | 0% | 152–164 | 149–166 | 147–167 | 142–170 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 141 | 0% | 135–147 | 133–149 | 131–151 | 126–155 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 141 | 0% | 134–147 | 132–149 | 130–150 | 124–153 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 134 | 0% | 128–140 | 127–142 | 126–144 | 122–148 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 124 | 0% | 118–129 | 117–132 | 115–134 | 113–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 123 | 0% | 118–130 | 116–132 | 115–133 | 113–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 116 | 0% | 110–122 | 107–124 | 104–125 | 98–128 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 110 | 0% | 104–115 | 102–117 | 99–118 | 92–121 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 98 | 0% | 94–104 | 91–106 | 91–107 | 88–110 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 182 | 2% | 97% | |
| 183 | 3% | 94% | |
| 184 | 3% | 92% | |
| 185 | 4% | 89% | |
| 186 | 4% | 86% | |
| 187 | 8% | 81% | |
| 188 | 6% | 73% | |
| 189 | 11% | 68% | |
| 190 | 6% | 57% | |
| 191 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 192 | 9% | 41% | |
| 193 | 9% | 32% | |
| 194 | 4% | 23% | |
| 195 | 5% | 19% | |
| 196 | 3% | 14% | |
| 197 | 3% | 11% | |
| 198 | 2% | 8% | |
| 199 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 201 | 0.9% | 4% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 181 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 182 | 2% | 95% | |
| 183 | 3% | 93% | |
| 184 | 3% | 90% | |
| 185 | 3% | 87% | |
| 186 | 4% | 84% | |
| 187 | 5% | 80% | |
| 188 | 9% | 74% | |
| 189 | 10% | 66% | |
| 190 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 191 | 10% | 50% | |
| 192 | 8% | 40% | |
| 193 | 7% | 32% | |
| 194 | 8% | 25% | |
| 195 | 4% | 17% | Last Result |
| 196 | 4% | 13% | |
| 197 | 3% | 8% | |
| 198 | 2% | 5% | |
| 199 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 151 | 2% | 97% | |
| 152 | 3% | 95% | |
| 153 | 4% | 92% | |
| 154 | 4% | 87% | Last Result |
| 155 | 8% | 83% | |
| 156 | 7% | 75% | |
| 157 | 8% | 68% | |
| 158 | 10% | 60% | |
| 159 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 160 | 10% | 45% | |
| 161 | 9% | 34% | |
| 162 | 5% | 26% | |
| 163 | 4% | 20% | |
| 164 | 3% | 16% | |
| 165 | 3% | 13% | |
| 166 | 3% | 10% | |
| 167 | 2% | 7% | |
| 168 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 150 | 2% | 98% | |
| 151 | 2% | 95% | |
| 152 | 5% | 93% | |
| 153 | 3% | 88% | |
| 154 | 4% | 85% | |
| 155 | 5% | 81% | |
| 156 | 6% | 76% | |
| 157 | 9% | 70% | |
| 158 | 8% | 61% | |
| 159 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 160 | 6% | 39% | |
| 161 | 6% | 33% | |
| 162 | 6% | 27% | |
| 163 | 4% | 21% | |
| 164 | 6% | 18% | |
| 165 | 3% | 12% | |
| 166 | 3% | 9% | |
| 167 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 149 | 2% | 96% | |
| 150 | 2% | 94% | |
| 151 | 2% | 93% | |
| 152 | 3% | 91% | |
| 153 | 4% | 88% | |
| 154 | 6% | 84% | |
| 155 | 3% | 78% | |
| 156 | 8% | 75% | |
| 157 | 6% | 67% | |
| 158 | 8% | 61% | |
| 159 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 160 | 8% | 44% | |
| 161 | 9% | 35% | |
| 162 | 6% | 26% | |
| 163 | 6% | 20% | |
| 164 | 6% | 15% | |
| 165 | 3% | 9% | |
| 166 | 2% | 6% | |
| 167 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 132 | 2% | 97% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 134 | 4% | 95% | |
| 135 | 3% | 91% | |
| 136 | 4% | 89% | |
| 137 | 5% | 84% | |
| 138 | 4% | 79% | |
| 139 | 10% | 75% | |
| 140 | 9% | 64% | |
| 141 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 142 | 12% | 48% | |
| 143 | 6% | 36% | |
| 144 | 5% | 30% | Last Result |
| 145 | 6% | 25% | |
| 146 | 5% | 19% | |
| 147 | 5% | 14% | |
| 148 | 3% | 9% | |
| 149 | 2% | 6% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 133 | 2% | 95% | |
| 134 | 4% | 93% | |
| 135 | 2% | 89% | |
| 136 | 6% | 87% | |
| 137 | 4% | 81% | |
| 138 | 7% | 77% | |
| 139 | 11% | 70% | |
| 140 | 7% | 59% | |
| 141 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 142 | 8% | 45% | |
| 143 | 12% | 37% | Last Result |
| 144 | 4% | 26% | |
| 145 | 5% | 22% | |
| 146 | 6% | 17% | |
| 147 | 3% | 11% | |
| 148 | 2% | 9% | |
| 149 | 3% | 7% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 125 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 127 | 3% | 97% | |
| 128 | 6% | 94% | |
| 129 | 6% | 88% | |
| 130 | 6% | 82% | |
| 131 | 4% | 76% | |
| 132 | 10% | 72% | Last Result |
| 133 | 10% | 62% | |
| 134 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 135 | 6% | 42% | |
| 136 | 10% | 36% | |
| 137 | 5% | 27% | |
| 138 | 4% | 22% | |
| 139 | 7% | 18% | |
| 140 | 2% | 11% | |
| 141 | 3% | 9% | |
| 142 | 2% | 6% | |
| 143 | 2% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 115 | 2% | 98% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 117 | 4% | 95% | |
| 118 | 4% | 91% | |
| 119 | 3% | 88% | |
| 120 | 7% | 84% | |
| 121 | 10% | 77% | |
| 122 | 8% | 67% | |
| 123 | 6% | 59% | Median |
| 124 | 11% | 53% | |
| 125 | 10% | 42% | |
| 126 | 6% | 32% | |
| 127 | 7% | 25% | |
| 128 | 4% | 18% | Last Result |
| 129 | 5% | 14% | |
| 130 | 2% | 9% | |
| 131 | 2% | 7% | |
| 132 | 2% | 5% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 134 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 115 | 2% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 96% | |
| 117 | 3% | 94% | |
| 118 | 5% | 91% | |
| 119 | 5% | 87% | |
| 120 | 6% | 82% | |
| 121 | 6% | 76% | |
| 122 | 12% | 69% | |
| 123 | 9% | 57% | Last Result |
| 124 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 125 | 6% | 38% | |
| 126 | 8% | 32% | |
| 127 | 7% | 24% | |
| 128 | 3% | 17% | |
| 129 | 3% | 14% | |
| 130 | 3% | 11% | |
| 131 | 2% | 7% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 133 | 2% | 4% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 108 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 110 | 4% | 92% | |
| 111 | 5% | 88% | |
| 112 | 3% | 83% | |
| 113 | 11% | 79% | |
| 114 | 6% | 68% | |
| 115 | 5% | 62% | |
| 116 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 117 | 7% | 44% | |
| 118 | 7% | 36% | |
| 119 | 8% | 29% | |
| 120 | 3% | 21% | |
| 121 | 5% | 18% | Last Result |
| 122 | 7% | 14% | |
| 123 | 2% | 7% | |
| 124 | 2% | 5% | |
| 125 | 2% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 102 | 2% | 95% | |
| 103 | 2% | 93% | |
| 104 | 4% | 91% | |
| 105 | 8% | 87% | |
| 106 | 6% | 80% | |
| 107 | 7% | 74% | |
| 108 | 6% | 66% | |
| 109 | 9% | 61% | |
| 110 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 111 | 12% | 45% | |
| 112 | 9% | 33% | |
| 113 | 7% | 23% | |
| 114 | 3% | 17% | |
| 115 | 4% | 13% | |
| 116 | 4% | 9% | Last Result |
| 117 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 91 | 3% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 95% | |
| 93 | 2% | 92% | |
| 94 | 6% | 91% | |
| 95 | 8% | 85% | |
| 96 | 9% | 78% | |
| 97 | 13% | 68% | |
| 98 | 5% | 55% | |
| 99 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 100 | 11% | 43% | |
| 101 | 6% | 33% | Last Result |
| 102 | 8% | 27% | |
| 103 | 7% | 18% | |
| 104 | 2% | 11% | |
| 105 | 3% | 9% | |
| 106 | 3% | 6% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 10–23 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1537
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.83%