Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 20–25 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 24.0% | 22.8–25.2% | 22.5–25.6% | 22.2–25.9% | 21.7–26.5% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 22.3% | 21.1–23.5% | 20.8–23.8% | 20.5–24.1% | 20.0–24.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.1% | 18.0–20.2% | 17.7–20.5% | 17.4–20.8% | 16.9–21.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.1–10.8% | 8.9–11.1% | 8.7–11.3% | 8.3–11.7% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8–9.4% | 7.6–9.6% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.1–10.2% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.1–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.6–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 89 | 85–95 | 83–96 | 81–98 | 79–101 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 83 | 78–88 | 77–90 | 76–92 | 73–94 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 71 | 67–76 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 62–81 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 37 | 34–41 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 31–44 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 32 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 28–37 | 26–39 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 83 | 3% | 96% | |
| 84 | 3% | 93% | |
| 85 | 5% | 90% | |
| 86 | 8% | 85% | |
| 87 | 7% | 77% | |
| 88 | 13% | 70% | |
| 89 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 90 | 11% | 49% | |
| 91 | 11% | 38% | |
| 92 | 6% | 27% | |
| 93 | 5% | 21% | |
| 94 | 6% | 16% | |
| 95 | 3% | 10% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98% | |
| 77 | 3% | 96% | |
| 78 | 4% | 93% | |
| 79 | 7% | 90% | |
| 80 | 7% | 83% | |
| 81 | 10% | 75% | |
| 82 | 14% | 66% | |
| 83 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 84 | 8% | 43% | |
| 85 | 14% | 35% | |
| 86 | 5% | 22% | |
| 87 | 4% | 17% | |
| 88 | 5% | 13% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 90 | 2% | 6% | |
| 91 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 92 | 2% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 4% | 95% | |
| 67 | 6% | 90% | |
| 68 | 7% | 85% | |
| 69 | 9% | 77% | |
| 70 | 14% | 68% | Last Result |
| 71 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 72 | 11% | 44% | |
| 73 | 8% | 33% | |
| 74 | 7% | 25% | |
| 75 | 7% | 18% | |
| 76 | 4% | 11% | |
| 77 | 2% | 7% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 32 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 10% | 93% | |
| 35 | 12% | 83% | |
| 36 | 15% | 71% | |
| 37 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 38 | 9% | 41% | |
| 39 | 15% | 33% | |
| 40 | 6% | 18% | |
| 41 | 7% | 11% | |
| 42 | 2% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 29 | 10% | 92% | |
| 30 | 13% | 82% | |
| 31 | 13% | 69% | |
| 32 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 33 | 18% | 39% | |
| 34 | 9% | 22% | |
| 35 | 6% | 13% | |
| 36 | 4% | 7% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98% | |
| 20 | 10% | 95% | |
| 21 | 16% | 85% | |
| 22 | 19% | 69% | Last Result |
| 23 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 31% | |
| 25 | 8% | 15% | |
| 26 | 4% | 7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 74% | |
| 2 | 0% | 74% | |
| 3 | 0% | 74% | |
| 4 | 0% | 74% | |
| 5 | 0% | 74% | |
| 6 | 0% | 74% | |
| 7 | 0% | 74% | |
| 8 | 0% | 74% | |
| 9 | 0% | 74% | |
| 10 | 0% | 74% | |
| 11 | 0% | 74% | |
| 12 | 0% | 74% | |
| 13 | 0% | 74% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 74% | |
| 15 | 16% | 73% | |
| 16 | 26% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 17% | 30% | |
| 18 | 9% | 13% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 12% | |
| 8 | 0% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0% | 12% | |
| 10 | 0% | 12% | |
| 11 | 0% | 12% | |
| 12 | 0% | 12% | |
| 13 | 0% | 12% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 15 | 6% | 11% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 197 | 100% | 190–207 | 188–209 | 186–211 | 182–214 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 177 | 60% | 170–185 | 168–187 | 166–189 | 161–193 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 172 | 40% | 164–179 | 162–181 | 160–183 | 156–188 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 160 | 0.9% | 154–168 | 152–171 | 150–172 | 147–176 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 154 | 0% | 148–161 | 146–164 | 144–165 | 140–169 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 141 | 0% | 131–147 | 129–150 | 127–153 | 124–157 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 132 | 0% | 126–141 | 124–143 | 123–146 | 121–150 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 134 | 0% | 124–140 | 122–142 | 119–144 | 116–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 131 | 0% | 125–137 | 123–139 | 122–141 | 117–144 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 121 | 0% | 116–127 | 114–130 | 112–131 | 109–135 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 110 | 0% | 104–119 | 102–121 | 101–123 | 99–128 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 108 | 0% | 102–114 | 101–115 | 100–117 | 97–120 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 104 | 0% | 91–109 | 89–110 | 87–111 | 84–114 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 187 | 2% | 97% | |
| 188 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 189 | 2% | 94% | |
| 190 | 2% | 92% | |
| 191 | 3% | 90% | |
| 192 | 7% | 86% | |
| 193 | 9% | 80% | |
| 194 | 4% | 71% | |
| 195 | 5% | 67% | |
| 196 | 6% | 62% | |
| 197 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 198 | 4% | 48% | |
| 199 | 7% | 44% | |
| 200 | 8% | 37% | |
| 201 | 5% | 29% | Last Result |
| 202 | 3% | 24% | |
| 203 | 5% | 21% | |
| 204 | 2% | 16% | |
| 205 | 2% | 15% | |
| 206 | 2% | 12% | |
| 207 | 3% | 10% | |
| 208 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 209 | 2% | 6% | |
| 210 | 2% | 5% | |
| 211 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 212 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 167 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 169 | 2% | 95% | |
| 170 | 5% | 93% | |
| 171 | 4% | 88% | |
| 172 | 2% | 84% | |
| 173 | 9% | 82% | |
| 174 | 14% | 73% | |
| 175 | 4% | 60% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 56% | |
| 177 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 178 | 10% | 43% | |
| 179 | 6% | 32% | |
| 180 | 4% | 27% | |
| 181 | 5% | 23% | |
| 182 | 4% | 18% | |
| 183 | 2% | 15% | |
| 184 | 2% | 12% | |
| 185 | 3% | 10% | |
| 186 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 187 | 2% | 6% | |
| 188 | 2% | 4% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 161 | 2% | 97% | |
| 162 | 2% | 96% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 164 | 3% | 93% | |
| 165 | 2% | 90% | |
| 166 | 2% | 88% | |
| 167 | 4% | 85% | |
| 168 | 5% | 82% | |
| 169 | 4% | 77% | |
| 170 | 6% | 73% | |
| 171 | 10% | 68% | |
| 172 | 9% | 57% | |
| 173 | 4% | 48% | |
| 174 | 4% | 44% | Median |
| 175 | 14% | 40% | Majority |
| 176 | 9% | 27% | |
| 177 | 2% | 18% | |
| 178 | 4% | 16% | |
| 179 | 5% | 12% | |
| 180 | 2% | 7% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 182 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 183 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 152 | 2% | 96% | |
| 153 | 3% | 94% | |
| 154 | 3% | 91% | |
| 155 | 4% | 88% | |
| 156 | 7% | 84% | |
| 157 | 7% | 78% | |
| 158 | 6% | 71% | |
| 159 | 10% | 65% | |
| 160 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 161 | 10% | 49% | |
| 162 | 8% | 39% | |
| 163 | 5% | 31% | |
| 164 | 6% | 26% | |
| 165 | 2% | 20% | |
| 166 | 4% | 18% | |
| 167 | 3% | 14% | |
| 168 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 169 | 2% | 10% | |
| 170 | 2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 171 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 172 | 2% | 4% | |
| 173 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 146 | 2% | 96% | |
| 147 | 2% | 94% | |
| 148 | 5% | 92% | |
| 149 | 5% | 87% | |
| 150 | 4% | 82% | |
| 151 | 9% | 78% | |
| 152 | 9% | 70% | |
| 153 | 7% | 61% | |
| 154 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 155 | 5% | 41% | |
| 156 | 5% | 37% | |
| 157 | 8% | 32% | |
| 158 | 3% | 24% | |
| 159 | 5% | 20% | |
| 160 | 3% | 15% | |
| 161 | 3% | 12% | |
| 162 | 2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 165 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 129 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 130 | 2% | 95% | |
| 131 | 3% | 93% | |
| 132 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 133 | 2% | 88% | |
| 134 | 3% | 86% | |
| 135 | 3% | 83% | |
| 136 | 3% | 80% | |
| 137 | 4% | 77% | |
| 138 | 5% | 72% | |
| 139 | 6% | 67% | |
| 140 | 9% | 61% | |
| 141 | 6% | 53% | |
| 142 | 7% | 47% | Median |
| 143 | 8% | 39% | |
| 144 | 6% | 32% | |
| 145 | 8% | 26% | |
| 146 | 5% | 18% | |
| 147 | 4% | 13% | |
| 148 | 2% | 9% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 150 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 154 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 123 | 2% | 98% | |
| 124 | 3% | 97% | |
| 125 | 3% | 94% | |
| 126 | 3% | 91% | |
| 127 | 6% | 88% | |
| 128 | 6% | 82% | |
| 129 | 10% | 76% | |
| 130 | 6% | 66% | |
| 131 | 7% | 60% | Median |
| 132 | 7% | 53% | |
| 133 | 8% | 46% | |
| 134 | 6% | 39% | |
| 135 | 4% | 32% | |
| 136 | 5% | 28% | |
| 137 | 5% | 23% | |
| 138 | 3% | 19% | |
| 139 | 2% | 16% | |
| 140 | 3% | 13% | |
| 141 | 2% | 10% | |
| 142 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 143 | 2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 144 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 122 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 123 | 2% | 94% | |
| 124 | 4% | 92% | |
| 125 | 3% | 88% | |
| 126 | 3% | 85% | |
| 127 | 2% | 83% | |
| 128 | 3% | 80% | |
| 129 | 2% | 77% | |
| 130 | 4% | 75% | |
| 131 | 4% | 70% | |
| 132 | 5% | 66% | |
| 133 | 4% | 61% | |
| 134 | 7% | 57% | |
| 135 | 4% | 50% | |
| 136 | 10% | 45% | |
| 137 | 7% | 35% | Median |
| 138 | 6% | 28% | |
| 139 | 6% | 22% | |
| 140 | 6% | 16% | |
| 141 | 3% | 10% | |
| 142 | 3% | 7% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 145 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 124 | 4% | 94% | |
| 125 | 4% | 90% | |
| 126 | 4% | 86% | |
| 127 | 7% | 82% | |
| 128 | 7% | 75% | |
| 129 | 11% | 68% | |
| 130 | 7% | 57% | |
| 131 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 132 | 8% | 43% | |
| 133 | 8% | 36% | |
| 134 | 6% | 28% | |
| 135 | 4% | 22% | |
| 136 | 4% | 18% | |
| 137 | 5% | 13% | |
| 138 | 3% | 9% | |
| 139 | 2% | 6% | |
| 140 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 141 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 142 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 112 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 113 | 2% | 97% | |
| 114 | 2% | 96% | |
| 115 | 3% | 93% | |
| 116 | 8% | 90% | |
| 117 | 4% | 82% | |
| 118 | 4% | 78% | |
| 119 | 8% | 74% | |
| 120 | 14% | 66% | |
| 121 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 122 | 5% | 45% | |
| 123 | 9% | 41% | |
| 124 | 10% | 31% | |
| 125 | 5% | 21% | |
| 126 | 3% | 17% | |
| 127 | 4% | 13% | |
| 128 | 3% | 10% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 7% | |
| 130 | 2% | 6% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 102 | 3% | 96% | |
| 103 | 2% | 93% | |
| 104 | 3% | 90% | |
| 105 | 12% | 87% | |
| 106 | 8% | 75% | |
| 107 | 5% | 67% | |
| 108 | 5% | 62% | Median |
| 109 | 5% | 57% | |
| 110 | 6% | 52% | |
| 111 | 9% | 45% | |
| 112 | 8% | 36% | |
| 113 | 5% | 28% | |
| 114 | 6% | 24% | |
| 115 | 3% | 18% | |
| 116 | 2% | 15% | |
| 117 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 118 | 2% | 12% | |
| 119 | 2% | 10% | |
| 120 | 2% | 8% | |
| 121 | 0.9% | 5% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 101 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 102 | 4% | 93% | |
| 103 | 3% | 90% | |
| 104 | 5% | 86% | |
| 105 | 14% | 82% | |
| 106 | 8% | 67% | |
| 107 | 6% | 59% | |
| 108 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 109 | 6% | 47% | |
| 110 | 7% | 41% | |
| 111 | 9% | 34% | |
| 112 | 8% | 25% | |
| 113 | 5% | 18% | |
| 114 | 5% | 13% | |
| 115 | 3% | 8% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 117 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 89 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 90 | 2% | 94% | |
| 91 | 2% | 92% | |
| 92 | 3% | 90% | |
| 93 | 3% | 87% | |
| 94 | 3% | 84% | |
| 95 | 3% | 81% | |
| 96 | 3% | 79% | |
| 97 | 2% | 76% | |
| 98 | 2% | 74% | |
| 99 | 3% | 71% | |
| 100 | 2% | 68% | |
| 101 | 5% | 66% | |
| 102 | 7% | 61% | |
| 103 | 5% | 55% | |
| 104 | 11% | 50% | |
| 105 | 9% | 39% | Median |
| 106 | 4% | 30% | |
| 107 | 11% | 26% | |
| 108 | 4% | 15% | |
| 109 | 4% | 11% | |
| 110 | 3% | 7% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 20–25 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2097
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.64%