Opinion Poll by Demoskop, 24 September–1 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 23.1% | 21.8–24.5% | 21.4–24.9% | 21.1–25.3% | 20.5–25.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 22.9% | 21.6–24.3% | 21.2–24.7% | 20.9–25.0% | 20.3–25.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.5% | 18.3–20.8% | 17.9–21.2% | 17.6–21.5% | 17.0–22.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8–9.6% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.3–10.1% | 6.9–10.5% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5–9.2% | 7.2–9.5% | 7.0–9.7% | 6.7–10.2% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9–7.5% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.5–7.9% | 5.2–8.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 84 | 79–89 | 77–91 | 76–93 | 74–96 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 83 | 78–89 | 77–90 | 75–92 | 73–94 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 71 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 63–79 | 61–81 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 31 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 | 25–39 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–35 | 26–36 | 24–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 24 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 19–30 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 | 0–24 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–19 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 77 | 3% | 97% | |
| 78 | 4% | 95% | |
| 79 | 3% | 90% | |
| 80 | 7% | 87% | |
| 81 | 5% | 80% | |
| 82 | 10% | 75% | |
| 83 | 7% | 65% | |
| 84 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 85 | 9% | 47% | |
| 86 | 10% | 38% | |
| 87 | 10% | 28% | |
| 88 | 3% | 18% | |
| 89 | 6% | 15% | |
| 90 | 2% | 9% | |
| 91 | 4% | 8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 4% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 4% | 95% | |
| 78 | 6% | 91% | |
| 79 | 6% | 85% | |
| 80 | 6% | 79% | |
| 81 | 11% | 73% | |
| 82 | 10% | 63% | |
| 83 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 84 | 10% | 45% | |
| 85 | 9% | 36% | |
| 86 | 8% | 26% | |
| 87 | 3% | 18% | |
| 88 | 5% | 15% | |
| 89 | 4% | 10% | |
| 90 | 2% | 6% | |
| 91 | 2% | 5% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 5% | 95% | |
| 66 | 5% | 90% | |
| 67 | 7% | 85% | |
| 68 | 7% | 78% | |
| 69 | 9% | 71% | |
| 70 | 8% | 62% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 72 | 8% | 43% | |
| 73 | 13% | 35% | |
| 74 | 6% | 22% | |
| 75 | 5% | 16% | |
| 76 | 4% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 8% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 3% | 97% | |
| 28 | 8% | 94% | Last Result |
| 29 | 9% | 86% | |
| 30 | 13% | 77% | |
| 31 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 44% | |
| 33 | 10% | 31% | |
| 34 | 7% | 21% | |
| 35 | 6% | 13% | |
| 36 | 4% | 7% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 5% | 98% | |
| 27 | 10% | 93% | |
| 28 | 8% | 83% | |
| 29 | 17% | 75% | |
| 30 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 44% | Last Result |
| 32 | 10% | 29% | |
| 33 | 9% | 19% | |
| 34 | 5% | 10% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98% | |
| 21 | 6% | 96% | |
| 22 | 12% | 89% | Last Result |
| 23 | 15% | 77% | |
| 24 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 25 | 14% | 47% | |
| 26 | 16% | 32% | |
| 27 | 8% | 17% | |
| 28 | 5% | 9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 15 | 6% | 98% | |
| 16 | 12% | 92% | Last Result |
| 17 | 17% | 80% | |
| 18 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 19 | 17% | 45% | |
| 20 | 13% | 27% | |
| 21 | 8% | 15% | |
| 22 | 5% | 7% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 45% | |
| 2 | 0% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0% | 45% | |
| 4 | 0% | 45% | |
| 5 | 0% | 45% | |
| 6 | 0% | 45% | |
| 7 | 0% | 45% | |
| 8 | 0% | 45% | |
| 9 | 0% | 45% | |
| 10 | 0% | 45% | |
| 11 | 0% | 45% | |
| 12 | 0% | 45% | |
| 13 | 0% | 45% | |
| 14 | 3% | 45% | |
| 15 | 21% | 42% | |
| 16 | 13% | 22% | |
| 17 | 6% | 9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 185 | 96% | 177–193 | 175–195 | 174–197 | 170–201 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 178 | 69% | 170–186 | 168–188 | 167–190 | 164–194 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 171 | 31% | 163–179 | 161–181 | 159–182 | 155–185 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 155 | 0% | 148–162 | 146–164 | 144–166 | 141–170 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 154 | 0% | 146–161 | 145–163 | 143–165 | 141–169 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 139 | 0% | 131–148 | 129–150 | 127–151 | 122–155 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 134 | 0% | 126–140 | 125–142 | 123–144 | 118–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 132 | 0% | 125–140 | 122–142 | 120–144 | 117–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 125 | 0% | 119–132 | 117–133 | 116–136 | 113–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 115 | 0% | 109–122 | 108–124 | 106–125 | 103–128 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 108 | 0% | 100–117 | 98–119 | 97–120 | 94–124 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 103 | 0% | 96–108 | 95–110 | 92–112 | 85–114 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 101 | 0% | 95–107 | 94–109 | 93–111 | 90–113 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 174 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 175 | 1.4% | 96% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 95% | |
| 177 | 4% | 93% | |
| 178 | 5% | 89% | |
| 179 | 3% | 84% | |
| 180 | 5% | 81% | |
| 181 | 4% | 76% | |
| 182 | 8% | 71% | |
| 183 | 6% | 64% | |
| 184 | 3% | 57% | |
| 185 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 186 | 5% | 46% | |
| 187 | 3% | 40% | |
| 188 | 7% | 37% | |
| 189 | 4% | 29% | |
| 190 | 4% | 25% | |
| 191 | 2% | 21% | |
| 192 | 4% | 19% | |
| 193 | 6% | 15% | |
| 194 | 2% | 9% | |
| 195 | 3% | 7% | |
| 196 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 197 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 168 | 3% | 97% | |
| 169 | 2% | 94% | |
| 170 | 2% | 92% | |
| 171 | 5% | 90% | |
| 172 | 7% | 85% | |
| 173 | 4% | 78% | |
| 174 | 5% | 74% | |
| 175 | 6% | 69% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 64% | |
| 177 | 6% | 60% | |
| 178 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 179 | 6% | 49% | |
| 180 | 5% | 43% | |
| 181 | 7% | 38% | |
| 182 | 5% | 31% | |
| 183 | 5% | 27% | |
| 184 | 8% | 21% | |
| 185 | 3% | 14% | |
| 186 | 2% | 11% | |
| 187 | 3% | 8% | |
| 188 | 2% | 6% | |
| 189 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 160 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 161 | 2% | 96% | |
| 162 | 3% | 94% | |
| 163 | 2% | 92% | Median |
| 164 | 3% | 89% | |
| 165 | 8% | 86% | |
| 166 | 5% | 79% | |
| 167 | 5% | 73% | |
| 168 | 7% | 69% | |
| 169 | 5% | 62% | |
| 170 | 6% | 57% | |
| 171 | 5% | 51% | |
| 172 | 6% | 46% | |
| 173 | 4% | 40% | |
| 174 | 6% | 36% | |
| 175 | 5% | 31% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 26% | |
| 177 | 7% | 22% | |
| 178 | 5% | 15% | |
| 179 | 2% | 10% | |
| 180 | 2% | 8% | |
| 181 | 3% | 6% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 98.5% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 146 | 2% | 96% | |
| 147 | 4% | 94% | |
| 148 | 3% | 90% | |
| 149 | 7% | 88% | |
| 150 | 3% | 81% | |
| 151 | 6% | 77% | |
| 152 | 8% | 71% | |
| 153 | 6% | 63% | |
| 154 | 3% | 57% | |
| 155 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 156 | 8% | 47% | |
| 157 | 4% | 39% | |
| 158 | 7% | 36% | |
| 159 | 8% | 29% | |
| 160 | 4% | 21% | |
| 161 | 2% | 17% | |
| 162 | 6% | 15% | |
| 163 | 2% | 9% | |
| 164 | 2% | 7% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 143 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 3% | 95% | |
| 146 | 2% | 92% | |
| 147 | 4% | 90% | |
| 148 | 4% | 85% | |
| 149 | 6% | 81% | |
| 150 | 7% | 75% | |
| 151 | 3% | 68% | |
| 152 | 7% | 65% | |
| 153 | 6% | 58% | |
| 154 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 155 | 6% | 47% | |
| 156 | 8% | 41% | |
| 157 | 5% | 33% | |
| 158 | 9% | 27% | |
| 159 | 2% | 19% | |
| 160 | 5% | 17% | |
| 161 | 3% | 12% | |
| 162 | 2% | 8% | |
| 163 | 2% | 7% | |
| 164 | 2% | 5% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 129 | 2% | 96% | |
| 130 | 3% | 95% | |
| 131 | 2% | 92% | |
| 132 | 2% | 89% | Median |
| 133 | 4% | 87% | |
| 134 | 10% | 83% | |
| 135 | 7% | 72% | |
| 136 | 3% | 66% | |
| 137 | 6% | 63% | |
| 138 | 5% | 57% | |
| 139 | 3% | 52% | |
| 140 | 4% | 49% | |
| 141 | 4% | 45% | |
| 142 | 5% | 41% | |
| 143 | 3% | 36% | |
| 144 | 4% | 33% | |
| 145 | 6% | 29% | |
| 146 | 5% | 23% | |
| 147 | 6% | 18% | |
| 148 | 3% | 12% | |
| 149 | 2% | 9% | |
| 150 | 3% | 6% | |
| 151 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 124 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 125 | 2% | 95% | |
| 126 | 4% | 94% | |
| 127 | 3% | 90% | |
| 128 | 4% | 87% | |
| 129 | 4% | 83% | |
| 130 | 6% | 79% | |
| 131 | 5% | 72% | |
| 132 | 9% | 68% | |
| 133 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 134 | 6% | 51% | |
| 135 | 7% | 44% | |
| 136 | 9% | 38% | |
| 137 | 5% | 29% | |
| 138 | 8% | 25% | |
| 139 | 5% | 17% | |
| 140 | 2% | 12% | |
| 141 | 4% | 10% | |
| 142 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 143 | 2% | 5% | |
| 144 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 145 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 119 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 121 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | |
| 124 | 2% | 93% | |
| 125 | 5% | 91% | Median |
| 126 | 5% | 86% | |
| 127 | 5% | 81% | |
| 128 | 9% | 77% | |
| 129 | 5% | 67% | |
| 130 | 5% | 62% | |
| 131 | 5% | 57% | |
| 132 | 5% | 53% | |
| 133 | 4% | 47% | |
| 134 | 2% | 44% | |
| 135 | 8% | 42% | |
| 136 | 5% | 34% | |
| 137 | 2% | 30% | |
| 138 | 6% | 27% | |
| 139 | 7% | 21% | |
| 140 | 5% | 14% | |
| 141 | 2% | 9% | |
| 142 | 3% | 7% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 4% | Last Result |
| 144 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 98% | |
| 117 | 2% | 95% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 119 | 4% | 92% | |
| 120 | 7% | 88% | |
| 121 | 5% | 81% | |
| 122 | 5% | 76% | |
| 123 | 6% | 71% | Last Result |
| 124 | 9% | 65% | |
| 125 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 126 | 6% | 47% | |
| 127 | 6% | 41% | |
| 128 | 10% | 35% | |
| 129 | 5% | 25% | |
| 130 | 4% | 20% | |
| 131 | 4% | 15% | |
| 132 | 4% | 11% | |
| 133 | 2% | 7% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 97% | |
| 108 | 2% | 95% | |
| 109 | 5% | 93% | |
| 110 | 3% | 88% | |
| 111 | 6% | 85% | |
| 112 | 5% | 79% | |
| 113 | 7% | 74% | |
| 114 | 7% | 67% | |
| 115 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 116 | 6% | 50% | |
| 117 | 12% | 44% | |
| 118 | 6% | 32% | |
| 119 | 4% | 26% | |
| 120 | 6% | 22% | |
| 121 | 5% | 15% | |
| 122 | 3% | 11% | |
| 123 | 2% | 8% | |
| 124 | 3% | 6% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 126 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98% | |
| 98 | 2% | 96% | |
| 99 | 3% | 94% | |
| 100 | 5% | 90% | |
| 101 | 3% | 85% | Median |
| 102 | 9% | 82% | |
| 103 | 4% | 73% | |
| 104 | 4% | 69% | |
| 105 | 5% | 65% | |
| 106 | 4% | 60% | |
| 107 | 3% | 55% | |
| 108 | 4% | 52% | |
| 109 | 3% | 48% | |
| 110 | 4% | 45% | |
| 111 | 5% | 41% | |
| 112 | 6% | 36% | |
| 113 | 5% | 29% | |
| 114 | 5% | 24% | |
| 115 | 4% | 19% | |
| 116 | 5% | 15% | |
| 117 | 2% | 10% | |
| 118 | 2% | 8% | |
| 119 | 2% | 6% | |
| 120 | 2% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 2% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 94 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 95 | 4% | 95% | |
| 96 | 3% | 92% | |
| 97 | 5% | 89% | |
| 98 | 4% | 84% | |
| 99 | 6% | 80% | |
| 100 | 6% | 73% | |
| 101 | 10% | 67% | |
| 102 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 103 | 8% | 50% | |
| 104 | 9% | 42% | |
| 105 | 10% | 32% | |
| 106 | 8% | 23% | |
| 107 | 3% | 15% | |
| 108 | 2% | 12% | |
| 109 | 4% | 10% | |
| 110 | 2% | 6% | |
| 111 | 2% | 4% | |
| 112 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 96% | |
| 95 | 3% | 92% | |
| 96 | 6% | 89% | |
| 97 | 6% | 83% | |
| 98 | 8% | 77% | |
| 99 | 10% | 69% | |
| 100 | 7% | 59% | |
| 101 | 7% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 102 | 11% | 45% | |
| 103 | 7% | 34% | |
| 104 | 5% | 28% | |
| 105 | 5% | 22% | |
| 106 | 5% | 17% | |
| 107 | 3% | 12% | |
| 108 | 3% | 9% | |
| 109 | 2% | 6% | |
| 110 | 2% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24 September–1 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1617
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.01%