Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 8–14 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 24.7% | 23.5–26.0% | 23.2–26.3% | 22.9–26.6% | 22.4–27.2% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 22.6% | 21.5–23.8% | 21.2–24.1% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.3–25.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.3% | 18.2–20.4% | 17.9–20.7% | 17.6–21.0% | 17.1–21.6% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.3–11.0% | 9.1–11.2% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.5–11.9% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.7% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 91 | 86–96 | 85–97 | 84–99 | 81–101 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 83 | 79–88 | 77–90 | 76–91 | 75–94 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 72 | 67–76 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–81 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 38 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 33–43 | 31–44 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 29 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–36 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 25 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 20–28 | 19–30 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 84 | 3% | 98% | |
| 85 | 3% | 95% | |
| 86 | 6% | 92% | |
| 87 | 9% | 86% | |
| 88 | 8% | 77% | |
| 89 | 6% | 69% | |
| 90 | 11% | 62% | |
| 91 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 92 | 9% | 44% | |
| 93 | 8% | 36% | |
| 94 | 6% | 28% | |
| 95 | 8% | 22% | |
| 96 | 4% | 13% | |
| 97 | 4% | 9% | |
| 98 | 2% | 5% | |
| 99 | 2% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 97% | |
| 78 | 4% | 95% | |
| 79 | 6% | 91% | |
| 80 | 9% | 85% | |
| 81 | 8% | 76% | |
| 82 | 8% | 68% | |
| 83 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 84 | 10% | 46% | |
| 85 | 10% | 37% | |
| 86 | 5% | 27% | |
| 87 | 7% | 21% | |
| 88 | 7% | 15% | |
| 89 | 2% | 7% | |
| 90 | 2% | 5% | |
| 91 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 5% | 93% | |
| 68 | 5% | 89% | |
| 69 | 8% | 84% | |
| 70 | 10% | 76% | Last Result |
| 71 | 8% | 66% | |
| 72 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 73 | 15% | 40% | |
| 74 | 7% | 25% | |
| 75 | 7% | 18% | |
| 76 | 6% | 11% | |
| 77 | 2% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 32 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98% | |
| 34 | 7% | 94% | |
| 35 | 8% | 87% | |
| 36 | 14% | 80% | |
| 37 | 12% | 65% | |
| 38 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 39 | 14% | 34% | |
| 40 | 10% | 20% | |
| 41 | 5% | 11% | |
| 42 | 3% | 6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 6% | 93% | |
| 28 | 15% | 87% | Last Result |
| 29 | 23% | 72% | Median |
| 30 | 18% | 50% | |
| 31 | 13% | 32% | |
| 32 | 10% | 19% | |
| 33 | 5% | 10% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 21 | 4% | 97% | |
| 22 | 9% | 93% | Last Result |
| 23 | 13% | 84% | |
| 24 | 16% | 71% | |
| 25 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 26 | 13% | 32% | |
| 27 | 12% | 18% | |
| 28 | 5% | 7% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 69% | |
| 2 | 0% | 69% | |
| 3 | 0% | 69% | |
| 4 | 0% | 69% | |
| 5 | 0% | 69% | |
| 6 | 0% | 69% | |
| 7 | 0% | 69% | |
| 8 | 0% | 69% | |
| 9 | 0% | 69% | |
| 10 | 0% | 69% | |
| 11 | 0% | 69% | |
| 12 | 0% | 69% | |
| 13 | 0% | 69% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 69% | |
| 15 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 19% | 41% | Last Result |
| 17 | 11% | 21% | |
| 18 | 7% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 199 | 100% | 193–208 | 192–210 | 190–212 | 187–215 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 180 | 82% | 173–186 | 171–189 | 170–190 | 166–193 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 169 | 18% | 163–176 | 160–178 | 159–179 | 156–183 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 162 | 1.3% | 156–170 | 154–172 | 153–174 | 150–177 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 155 | 0% | 149–161 | 147–163 | 145–165 | 143–169 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 140 | 0% | 132–147 | 130–149 | 128–151 | 125–155 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 134 | 0% | 128–139 | 126–141 | 125–143 | 122–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 134 | 0% | 127–139 | 126–141 | 124–143 | 121–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 132 | 0% | 123–139 | 122–140 | 120–142 | 117–144 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 120 | 0% | 115–127 | 114–128 | 112–130 | 110–133 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 110 | 0% | 104–114 | 102–116 | 101–118 | 99–122 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 110 | 0% | 104–114 | 102–116 | 101–117 | 98–121 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 103 | 0% | 93–110 | 92–111 | 90–113 | 87–115 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 189 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 190 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 191 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 192 | 3% | 96% | |
| 193 | 4% | 92% | |
| 194 | 5% | 88% | |
| 195 | 6% | 83% | |
| 196 | 5% | 77% | |
| 197 | 11% | 72% | |
| 198 | 5% | 61% | |
| 199 | 7% | 56% | |
| 200 | 5% | 50% | |
| 201 | 8% | 45% | Last Result, Median |
| 202 | 4% | 37% | |
| 203 | 5% | 33% | |
| 204 | 7% | 28% | |
| 205 | 2% | 22% | |
| 206 | 2% | 19% | |
| 207 | 7% | 18% | |
| 208 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 209 | 2% | 9% | |
| 210 | 3% | 8% | |
| 211 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 212 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 213 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 170 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 171 | 2% | 96% | |
| 172 | 2% | 94% | |
| 173 | 3% | 91% | |
| 174 | 7% | 88% | |
| 175 | 4% | 82% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 78% | |
| 177 | 5% | 71% | |
| 178 | 10% | 66% | |
| 179 | 6% | 56% | |
| 180 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 181 | 3% | 36% | |
| 182 | 3% | 33% | |
| 183 | 5% | 31% | |
| 184 | 5% | 26% | |
| 185 | 6% | 21% | |
| 186 | 7% | 15% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 188 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 189 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 190 | 2% | 4% | |
| 191 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 159 | 2% | 98% | |
| 160 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 162 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 163 | 7% | 92% | |
| 164 | 6% | 85% | |
| 165 | 5% | 79% | |
| 166 | 5% | 74% | |
| 167 | 3% | 69% | |
| 168 | 3% | 67% | |
| 169 | 14% | 64% | |
| 170 | 6% | 50% | |
| 171 | 10% | 44% | |
| 172 | 5% | 34% | |
| 173 | 7% | 29% | Median |
| 174 | 4% | 22% | |
| 175 | 7% | 18% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 12% | |
| 177 | 2% | 9% | |
| 178 | 2% | 6% | |
| 179 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 154 | 2% | 97% | |
| 155 | 3% | 95% | |
| 156 | 5% | 92% | |
| 157 | 4% | 87% | |
| 158 | 4% | 84% | |
| 159 | 10% | 80% | |
| 160 | 6% | 70% | |
| 161 | 8% | 64% | |
| 162 | 7% | 56% | |
| 163 | 9% | 49% | Median |
| 164 | 9% | 41% | |
| 165 | 5% | 32% | |
| 166 | 4% | 26% | |
| 167 | 4% | 23% | |
| 168 | 5% | 19% | |
| 169 | 3% | 14% | |
| 170 | 3% | 11% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 8% | |
| 172 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 173 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 145 | 1.5% | 98.5% | |
| 146 | 2% | 97% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 148 | 4% | 94% | |
| 149 | 3% | 90% | |
| 150 | 4% | 87% | |
| 151 | 4% | 83% | |
| 152 | 5% | 78% | |
| 153 | 11% | 73% | |
| 154 | 4% | 63% | |
| 155 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 156 | 10% | 44% | |
| 157 | 5% | 34% | |
| 158 | 9% | 29% | |
| 159 | 3% | 20% | |
| 160 | 7% | 17% | |
| 161 | 2% | 10% | |
| 162 | 2% | 8% | |
| 163 | 2% | 6% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 130 | 2% | 96% | |
| 131 | 2% | 94% | |
| 132 | 6% | 92% | |
| 133 | 2% | 86% | |
| 134 | 7% | 85% | |
| 135 | 3% | 78% | |
| 136 | 4% | 75% | |
| 137 | 4% | 71% | |
| 138 | 4% | 67% | |
| 139 | 7% | 62% | |
| 140 | 10% | 55% | |
| 141 | 5% | 45% | |
| 142 | 5% | 40% | |
| 143 | 9% | 35% | |
| 144 | 5% | 26% | Median |
| 145 | 5% | 21% | |
| 146 | 5% | 16% | |
| 147 | 3% | 11% | |
| 148 | 3% | 9% | |
| 149 | 2% | 6% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 124 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 126 | 2% | 96% | |
| 127 | 3% | 94% | |
| 128 | 3% | 91% | |
| 129 | 5% | 87% | |
| 130 | 6% | 83% | |
| 131 | 7% | 77% | |
| 132 | 6% | 70% | |
| 133 | 6% | 64% | |
| 134 | 8% | 58% | |
| 135 | 10% | 50% | Median |
| 136 | 10% | 40% | |
| 137 | 6% | 30% | |
| 138 | 9% | 24% | |
| 139 | 5% | 15% | |
| 140 | 3% | 10% | |
| 141 | 3% | 7% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 124 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 125 | 2% | 97% | |
| 126 | 2% | 95% | |
| 127 | 4% | 93% | |
| 128 | 3% | 90% | |
| 129 | 5% | 86% | |
| 130 | 6% | 81% | |
| 131 | 7% | 76% | |
| 132 | 6% | 68% | |
| 133 | 6% | 62% | |
| 134 | 8% | 57% | |
| 135 | 10% | 48% | Median |
| 136 | 9% | 38% | |
| 137 | 6% | 29% | |
| 138 | 9% | 22% | |
| 139 | 5% | 14% | |
| 140 | 3% | 9% | |
| 141 | 3% | 6% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 123 | 5% | 94% | |
| 124 | 2% | 89% | |
| 125 | 6% | 88% | |
| 126 | 3% | 81% | |
| 127 | 4% | 78% | |
| 128 | 3% | 74% | |
| 129 | 4% | 71% | |
| 130 | 4% | 67% | |
| 131 | 10% | 63% | |
| 132 | 4% | 52% | |
| 133 | 8% | 48% | |
| 134 | 5% | 39% | |
| 135 | 8% | 35% | Median |
| 136 | 5% | 27% | |
| 137 | 5% | 21% | |
| 138 | 4% | 16% | |
| 139 | 5% | 12% | |
| 140 | 3% | 8% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 142 | 2% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 112 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 113 | 2% | 97% | |
| 114 | 5% | 96% | |
| 115 | 3% | 91% | |
| 116 | 11% | 88% | |
| 117 | 4% | 76% | |
| 118 | 10% | 72% | |
| 119 | 6% | 62% | |
| 120 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 121 | 7% | 48% | |
| 122 | 6% | 41% | |
| 123 | 8% | 36% | |
| 124 | 5% | 27% | |
| 125 | 7% | 22% | |
| 126 | 3% | 15% | |
| 127 | 5% | 12% | |
| 128 | 2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 129 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 130 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 102 | 3% | 97% | |
| 103 | 3% | 94% | |
| 104 | 5% | 91% | |
| 105 | 4% | 87% | |
| 106 | 7% | 83% | |
| 107 | 8% | 76% | |
| 108 | 6% | 68% | |
| 109 | 10% | 62% | |
| 110 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 111 | 9% | 40% | |
| 112 | 11% | 32% | |
| 113 | 8% | 21% | |
| 114 | 4% | 13% | |
| 115 | 2% | 10% | |
| 116 | 3% | 8% | |
| 117 | 2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 102 | 3% | 97% | |
| 103 | 3% | 94% | |
| 104 | 5% | 90% | |
| 105 | 4% | 86% | |
| 106 | 7% | 82% | |
| 107 | 8% | 75% | |
| 108 | 6% | 67% | |
| 109 | 10% | 61% | |
| 110 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 111 | 9% | 38% | |
| 112 | 11% | 30% | |
| 113 | 8% | 19% | |
| 114 | 4% | 12% | |
| 115 | 2% | 8% | |
| 116 | 3% | 6% | |
| 117 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 90 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 92 | 4% | 96% | |
| 93 | 4% | 92% | |
| 94 | 4% | 88% | |
| 95 | 6% | 85% | |
| 96 | 3% | 79% | |
| 97 | 4% | 76% | |
| 98 | 2% | 72% | |
| 99 | 2% | 70% | |
| 100 | 5% | 68% | |
| 101 | 4% | 64% | |
| 102 | 10% | 60% | |
| 103 | 6% | 50% | |
| 104 | 6% | 45% | |
| 105 | 8% | 39% | |
| 106 | 7% | 31% | Median |
| 107 | 5% | 24% | |
| 108 | 5% | 20% | |
| 109 | 3% | 15% | |
| 110 | 3% | 11% | |
| 111 | 3% | 8% | |
| 112 | 2% | 4% | |
| 113 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 8–14 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2132
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.78%