Opinion Poll by Sifo, 7–17 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 25.5% 24.8–26.1% 24.6–26.3% 24.5–26.4% 24.2–26.8%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 21.0% 20.4–21.6% 20.2–21.7% 20.1–21.9% 19.8–22.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 18.1% 17.5–18.7% 17.4–18.8% 17.3–19.0% 17.0–19.3%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 9.4% 9.0–9.8% 8.9–10.0% 8.8–10.1% 8.6–10.3%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.6% 8.2–9.0% 8.1–9.1% 8.0–9.2% 7.8–9.4%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 6.9% 6.5–7.2% 6.4–7.3% 6.3–7.4% 6.1–7.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 5.1% 4.8–5.5% 4.7–5.5% 4.6–5.6% 4.5–5.8%
Liberalerna 5.5% 4.0% 3.7–4.3% 3.6–4.4% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 92 89–95 88–97 87–97 86–99
Sverigedemokraterna 62 75 73–78 72–79 71–80 70–81
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 65 63–68 62–69 62–69 60–71
Vänsterpartiet 28 34 32–36 32–37 31–37 31–38
Centerpartiet 31 31 29–33 29–33 28–34 28–34
Kristdemokraterna 22 25 23–26 23–27 22–27 22–28
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 19 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Liberalerna 20 14 0–15 0–15 0–16 0–16

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.2% 100%  
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 2% 99.4%  
88 6% 97%  
89 8% 91%  
90 9% 84%  
91 19% 75%  
92 14% 56% Median
93 15% 42%  
94 10% 27%  
95 7% 17%  
96 4% 10%  
97 4% 6%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.5% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
101 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 6% 97%  
73 20% 92%  
74 10% 72%  
75 13% 61% Median
76 11% 48%  
77 20% 37%  
78 7% 17%  
79 5% 10%  
80 3% 4%  
81 1.1% 1.4%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.4%  
62 5% 98%  
63 14% 92%  
64 14% 79%  
65 24% 65% Median
66 16% 41%  
67 15% 25%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 2% Last Result
71 0.5% 0.5%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 2% 99.8%  
32 13% 97%  
33 25% 84%  
34 22% 59% Median
35 17% 38%  
36 15% 21%  
37 5% 5%  
38 0.6% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 4% 99.8%  
29 10% 96%  
30 23% 86%  
31 31% 63% Last Result, Median
32 22% 32%  
33 7% 11%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 3% 99.9% Last Result
23 11% 97%  
24 36% 86%  
25 27% 50% Median
26 16% 23%  
27 5% 6%  
28 1.0% 1.2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100% Last Result
17 14% 98%  
18 33% 85%  
19 38% 52% Median
20 10% 14%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 0% 56%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0% 56%  
7 0% 56%  
8 0% 56%  
9 0% 56%  
10 0% 56%  
11 0% 56%  
12 0% 56%  
13 0% 56%  
14 22% 56% Median
15 29% 33%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 187 100% 182–194 181–195 181–196 180–197
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 184 99.4% 179–189 177–190 176–190 174–191
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 165 0.6% 160–170 159–172 159–173 158–175
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 157 0% 152–162 151–163 151–164 149–166
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 151 0% 144–156 143–156 142–157 140–158
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 143 0% 140–150 139–151 139–151 137–153
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 140 0% 136–145 136–146 135–147 134–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 131 0% 122–134 121–136 121–137 119–138
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 126 0% 122–130 122–132 121–132 119–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 120 0% 117–125 116–126 116–127 114–129
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 110 0% 107–115 106–116 105–116 104–118
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 107 0% 97–110 96–111 95–112 94–113
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 96 0% 93–100 92–101 92–102 91–103

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0.1% 100%  
179 0.3% 99.9%  
180 2% 99.6%  
181 4% 98%  
182 6% 94%  
183 5% 88%  
184 5% 84%  
185 8% 78%  
186 8% 70%  
187 14% 62%  
188 4% 48% Median
189 4% 45%  
190 3% 41%  
191 7% 38%  
192 13% 31%  
193 5% 18%  
194 5% 12%  
195 4% 7%  
196 2% 3%  
197 1.5% 2%  
198 0.2% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0.6% 99.9%  
175 0.8% 99.4% Majority
176 2% 98.6%  
177 3% 97%  
178 3% 94%  
179 6% 91%  
180 13% 85%  
181 8% 72%  
182 7% 65%  
183 4% 58%  
184 5% 54%  
185 8% 49%  
186 8% 42%  
187 16% 34%  
188 3% 18%  
189 9% 14%  
190 4% 6% Median
191 1.1% 1.5%  
192 0.3% 0.4%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0.3% 99.9%  
158 1.1% 99.6%  
159 4% 98.5%  
160 9% 94%  
161 3% 86%  
162 16% 82%  
163 8% 66%  
164 8% 58%  
165 5% 51% Median
166 4% 46%  
167 7% 42%  
168 8% 35%  
169 13% 28%  
170 6% 15%  
171 3% 9%  
172 3% 6%  
173 2% 3%  
174 0.8% 1.4%  
175 0.6% 0.6% Majority
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0.1% 100%  
149 0.4% 99.9%  
150 1.0% 99.4%  
151 3% 98%  
152 6% 95%  
153 6% 89%  
154 8% 82%  
155 8% 74%  
156 13% 66%  
157 10% 53% Median
158 3% 44%  
159 6% 41%  
160 14% 35%  
161 8% 21%  
162 5% 14%  
163 5% 8%  
164 2% 4%  
165 1.1% 2%  
166 0.5% 0.7%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.3% 99.9%  
140 0.8% 99.7%  
141 0.9% 98.9%  
142 2% 98%  
143 4% 96%  
144 13% 92%  
145 7% 79%  
146 8% 71%  
147 3% 63%  
148 3% 60%  
149 3% 57%  
150 3% 54%  
151 6% 51%  
152 5% 45%  
153 10% 40%  
154 11% 30%  
155 8% 20%  
156 7% 11% Median
157 4% 5%  
158 0.6% 0.9%  
159 0.3% 0.3%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.2% 99.9%  
137 0.6% 99.7%  
138 1.2% 99.2%  
139 3% 98%  
140 7% 95%  
141 9% 88%  
142 15% 79%  
143 14% 64%  
144 5% 50% Last Result
145 4% 45% Median
146 5% 41%  
147 3% 36%  
148 13% 33%  
149 8% 20%  
150 7% 13%  
151 4% 6%  
152 1.4% 2%  
153 0.5% 0.6%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100% Last Result
133 0.3% 99.9%  
134 2% 99.6%  
135 2% 98%  
136 10% 96%  
137 5% 86%  
138 19% 81%  
139 7% 63%  
140 8% 56% Median
141 7% 48%  
142 6% 41%  
143 8% 35%  
144 14% 27%  
145 5% 13%  
146 4% 8%  
147 2% 4%  
148 0.9% 2%  
149 0.8% 1.0%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.7% 99.9%  
120 2% 99.2%  
121 6% 98%  
122 8% 92%  
123 4% 84%  
124 12% 80%  
125 5% 68%  
126 4% 63%  
127 2% 59%  
128 1.0% 57%  
129 1.2% 56%  
130 2% 55%  
131 7% 53%  
132 7% 46%  
133 15% 39%  
134 15% 25%  
135 4% 9% Median
136 3% 6%  
137 2% 3%  
138 0.5% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.3% 100%  
119 0.5% 99.7%  
120 1.1% 99.2%  
121 3% 98%  
122 10% 95%  
123 6% 85%  
124 21% 78%  
125 6% 57%  
126 7% 51% Median
127 6% 44%  
128 4% 38% Last Result
129 17% 34%  
130 7% 17%  
131 4% 10%  
132 4% 6%  
133 1.3% 2%  
134 0.4% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.5% 99.9%  
115 1.2% 99.4%  
116 5% 98%  
117 9% 93%  
118 10% 84%  
119 13% 74%  
120 13% 61%  
121 9% 48% Median
122 9% 39%  
123 5% 30% Last Result
124 12% 24%  
125 5% 12%  
126 4% 8%  
127 2% 3%  
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.5% 0.7%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.6% 99.8%  
105 2% 99.1%  
106 5% 97%  
107 7% 92%  
108 8% 85%  
109 19% 77%  
110 9% 58%  
111 9% 49% Median
112 15% 41%  
113 7% 26%  
114 6% 19%  
115 8% 13%  
116 3% 5% Last Result
117 1.3% 2%  
118 0.6% 0.8%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.2% 100%  
94 0.5% 99.7%  
95 3% 99.2%  
96 5% 96%  
97 10% 91%  
98 4% 82%  
99 12% 77%  
100 4% 66%  
101 3% 62%  
102 2% 60%  
103 1.2% 57%  
104 0.6% 56%  
105 0.6% 56%  
106 2% 55%  
107 7% 53%  
108 10% 47%  
109 15% 37%  
110 14% 22% Median
111 4% 8%  
112 3% 4%  
113 0.9% 1.2%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.4% 99.9%  
91 2% 99.5%  
92 4% 98%  
93 11% 94%  
94 13% 83%  
95 15% 70%  
96 15% 55% Median
97 13% 40%  
98 6% 28%  
99 12% 22%  
100 4% 10%  
101 3% 7% Last Result
102 2% 4%  
103 1.2% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations