Opinion Poll by Sifo, 2–12 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 24.6% 24.0–25.3% 23.9–25.4% 23.7–25.6% 23.4–25.9%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 24.4% 23.8–25.0% 23.6–25.2% 23.5–25.4% 23.2–25.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 17.2% 16.7–17.8% 16.5–17.9% 16.4–18.0% 16.2–18.3%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 9.7% 9.3–10.2% 9.2–10.3% 9.1–10.4% 8.9–10.6%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.0% 7.6–8.4% 7.5–8.5% 7.4–8.6% 7.3–8.8%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 6.0% 5.7–6.4% 5.6–6.5% 5.5–6.5% 5.3–6.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.7% 4.4–5.0% 4.3–5.1% 4.3–5.2% 4.1–5.3%
Liberalerna 5.5% 4.0% 3.7–4.3% 3.7–4.4% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 88 85–93 84–93 84–93 83–95
Sverigedemokraterna 62 88 85–91 84–92 83–93 82–94
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 62 59–64 59–66 58–66 57–67
Vänsterpartiet 28 35 33–37 33–37 33–37 32–39
Centerpartiet 31 29 27–30 27–31 27–31 26–32
Kristdemokraterna 22 22 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–24
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 17 16–18 15–18 15–19 15–19
Liberalerna 20 14 0–15 0–16 0–16 0–16

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.7% 99.8%  
84 6% 99.1%  
85 6% 93%  
86 17% 88%  
87 9% 71%  
88 14% 62% Median
89 11% 48%  
90 11% 37%  
91 7% 26%  
92 6% 19%  
93 11% 13%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0.7% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.6% 99.8%  
83 2% 99.2%  
84 4% 97%  
85 9% 93%  
86 17% 84%  
87 8% 66%  
88 18% 58% Median
89 15% 40%  
90 7% 25%  
91 11% 18%  
92 3% 7%  
93 3% 4%  
94 0.9% 1.1%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 4% 99.4%  
59 6% 95%  
60 13% 89%  
61 18% 76%  
62 18% 58% Median
63 18% 39%  
64 12% 21%  
65 4% 9%  
66 4% 5%  
67 1.1% 1.2%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.4% 100%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 8% 98%  
34 21% 89%  
35 28% 68% Median
36 29% 40%  
37 9% 11%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 9% 98%  
28 27% 88%  
29 35% 62% Median
30 18% 26%  
31 7% 8% Last Result
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 3% 100%  
20 10% 97%  
21 35% 88%  
22 31% 52% Last Result, Median
23 15% 22%  
24 6% 6%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 5% 99.8%  
16 26% 95% Last Result
17 43% 69% Median
18 21% 25%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0% 55%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0% 55%  
7 0% 55%  
8 0% 55%  
9 0% 55%  
10 0% 55%  
11 0% 55%  
12 0% 55%  
13 0% 55%  
14 22% 55% Median
15 27% 32%  
16 6% 6%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 178 90% 174–185 173–186 173–187 171–188
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 178 71% 172–182 171–183 170–184 169–185
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 171 29% 167–177 166–178 165–179 164–180
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 150 0% 145–155 144–156 144–157 142–158
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 150 0% 146–156 145–156 144–157 143–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 144 0% 136–148 135–149 134–150 133–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 140 0% 136–146 135–146 135–147 133–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 123 0% 119–129 118–129 118–129 117–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 122 0% 114–126 112–127 112–128 111–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 112 0% 108–116 108–117 107–118 106–119
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 105 0% 102–110 101–110 101–111 99–112
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 101 0% 92–105 91–106 90–107 89–108
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 91 0% 87–94 87–95 86–96 85–97

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0.1% 100%  
171 0.4% 99.9%  
172 2% 99.4%  
173 3% 98%  
174 5% 95%  
175 15% 90% Majority
176 13% 75%  
177 9% 62%  
178 4% 53%  
179 3% 49% Median
180 2% 46%  
181 7% 44%  
182 5% 37%  
183 6% 32%  
184 8% 26%  
185 12% 18%  
186 3% 7%  
187 3% 4%  
188 1.1% 1.3%  
189 0.2% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0.1% 100%  
168 0.2% 99.9%  
169 1.1% 99.8%  
170 2% 98.7%  
171 6% 97%  
172 4% 90%  
173 7% 87%  
174 8% 79%  
175 8% 71% Majority
176 5% 63%  
177 4% 58%  
178 7% 53%  
179 5% 46%  
180 10% 41%  
181 13% 31%  
182 9% 18%  
183 4% 9% Median
184 3% 4%  
185 1.0% 1.5%  
186 0.3% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0.1% 100%  
163 0.3% 99.9%  
164 1.0% 99.5%  
165 3% 98.5%  
166 4% 96%  
167 9% 91%  
168 13% 82%  
169 10% 69%  
170 5% 59%  
171 7% 54%  
172 4% 47% Median
173 5% 42%  
174 8% 37%  
175 8% 29% Majority
176 7% 21%  
177 4% 13%  
178 6% 10%  
179 2% 3%  
180 1.1% 1.3%  
181 0.2% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.4% 99.9%  
143 1.4% 99.5%  
144 3% 98%  
145 6% 95%  
146 8% 89%  
147 13% 81%  
148 11% 68%  
149 6% 56%  
150 7% 51% Median
151 5% 44%  
152 13% 38%  
153 5% 25%  
154 6% 20%  
155 7% 14%  
156 4% 6%  
157 2% 3%  
158 0.7% 0.9%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.2% 100%  
143 0.8% 99.8%  
144 1.5% 99.0%  
145 5% 97%  
146 9% 92%  
147 13% 84%  
148 10% 70%  
149 9% 61%  
150 4% 51% Median
151 6% 47%  
152 6% 41%  
153 4% 35%  
154 9% 30%  
155 7% 21%  
156 9% 14%  
157 3% 5%  
158 1.1% 2%  
159 0.8% 1.0%  
160 0.2% 0.2%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.9% 99.9%  
134 2% 99.0%  
135 6% 97%  
136 3% 91%  
137 8% 88%  
138 6% 80%  
139 10% 73%  
140 5% 63%  
141 3% 58%  
142 2% 55%  
143 3% 54%  
144 8% 51%  
145 7% 43%  
146 13% 37%  
147 10% 24%  
148 8% 14% Median
149 4% 7%  
150 2% 3%  
151 0.6% 0.9%  
152 0.3% 0.3%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.3% 100%  
133 0.4% 99.6%  
134 1.2% 99.3%  
135 5% 98%  
136 6% 93%  
137 11% 87%  
138 13% 75%  
139 10% 62%  
140 5% 53% Median
141 8% 47%  
142 5% 40%  
143 6% 35%  
144 7% 29% Last Result
145 8% 22%  
146 10% 15%  
147 3% 4%  
148 0.7% 1.3%  
149 0.5% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.4% 100%  
117 0.6% 99.5%  
118 4% 99.0%  
119 5% 95%  
120 6% 89%  
121 17% 83%  
122 10% 66%  
123 7% 56% Median
124 10% 49%  
125 6% 39%  
126 7% 33%  
127 7% 25%  
128 6% 18% Last Result
129 10% 13%  
130 1.3% 2%  
131 0.5% 1.0%  
132 0.5% 0.5%  
133 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.2% 100%  
111 0.8% 99.8%  
112 5% 99.0%  
113 4% 94%  
114 10% 90%  
115 9% 81%  
116 8% 72%  
117 6% 64%  
118 2% 58%  
119 1.1% 56%  
120 0.7% 55%  
121 0.9% 54%  
122 6% 53%  
123 5% 47%  
124 5% 42%  
125 11% 36%  
126 16% 25%  
127 4% 9% Median
128 2% 4%  
129 2% 2%  
130 0.4% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.8% 99.8%  
107 3% 99.0%  
108 9% 96%  
109 5% 87%  
110 11% 83%  
111 10% 72%  
112 17% 61%  
113 7% 45% Median
114 12% 38%  
115 9% 27%  
116 8% 18%  
117 6% 10%  
118 2% 4%  
119 1.0% 2%  
120 0.4% 0.5%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.8%  
100 1.4% 99.4%  
101 8% 98%  
102 9% 90%  
103 14% 81%  
104 9% 67%  
105 12% 58% Median
106 8% 46%  
107 7% 38%  
108 9% 31%  
109 6% 22%  
110 11% 15%  
111 3% 5%  
112 0.9% 1.4%  
113 0.4% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.7% 99.9%  
90 3% 99.2%  
91 5% 96%  
92 11% 90%  
93 11% 79%  
94 6% 68%  
95 5% 62%  
96 2% 58%  
97 0.5% 56%  
98 0.4% 55%  
99 0.6% 55%  
100 2% 54%  
101 5% 52%  
102 5% 48%  
103 11% 43%  
104 12% 32%  
105 14% 21% Median
106 3% 7%  
107 3% 3%  
108 0.5% 0.8%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.9% 99.8%  
86 2% 99.0%  
87 8% 97%  
88 8% 89%  
89 14% 81%  
90 12% 66%  
91 15% 54% Median
92 14% 40%  
93 12% 26%  
94 6% 14%  
95 5% 8%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.5% 0.9%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations