Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 18 November–15 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 24.0% | 23.2–24.9% | 22.9–25.1% | 22.7–25.4% | 22.3–25.8% |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 23.7% | 22.9–24.6% | 22.6–24.8% | 22.4–25.1% | 22.0–25.5% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 17.9% | 17.1–18.7% | 16.9–18.9% | 16.7–19.1% | 16.4–19.5% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.3–10.5% | 9.1–10.7% | 9.0–10.9% | 8.7–11.2% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.8–8.9% | 7.6–9.1% | 7.5–9.2% | 7.2–9.5% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7–6.7% | 5.6–6.9% | 5.5–7.0% | 5.3–7.3% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6–5.5% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.2–6.0% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.2–3.9% | 3.0–4.0% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.8–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 88 | 85–91 | 84–92 | 83–93 | 81–94 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 87 | 84–90 | 83–91 | 82–92 | 79–93 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 66 | 63–68 | 62–69 | 61–70 | 59–72 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 36 | 34–38 | 33–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 19–27 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 3% | 98% | |
| 84 | 4% | 96% | |
| 85 | 10% | 92% | |
| 86 | 12% | 82% | |
| 87 | 16% | 70% | |
| 88 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 89 | 15% | 39% | |
| 90 | 14% | 24% | |
| 91 | 4% | 10% | |
| 92 | 3% | 6% | |
| 93 | 2% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 82 | 3% | 98% | |
| 83 | 4% | 95% | |
| 84 | 5% | 91% | |
| 85 | 13% | 85% | |
| 86 | 16% | 72% | |
| 87 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 88 | 12% | 39% | |
| 89 | 13% | 27% | |
| 90 | 6% | 14% | |
| 91 | 4% | 7% | |
| 92 | 2% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 5% | 91% | |
| 64 | 11% | 86% | |
| 65 | 14% | 75% | |
| 66 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 67 | 24% | 44% | |
| 68 | 13% | 20% | |
| 69 | 4% | 7% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 71 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 34 | 13% | 94% | |
| 35 | 13% | 82% | |
| 36 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 37 | 29% | 50% | |
| 38 | 12% | 21% | |
| 39 | 6% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 28 | 7% | 97% | |
| 29 | 17% | 89% | |
| 30 | 23% | 72% | Median |
| 31 | 21% | 50% | Last Result |
| 32 | 18% | 29% | |
| 33 | 8% | 11% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 11% | 96% | |
| 22 | 26% | 84% | Last Result |
| 23 | 29% | 58% | Median |
| 24 | 21% | 29% | |
| 25 | 6% | 9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 17 | 21% | 94% | |
| 18 | 28% | 74% | Median |
| 19 | 26% | 46% | |
| 20 | 15% | 20% | |
| 21 | 4% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 4% | |
| 14 | 2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 184 | 98% | 179–187 | 177–188 | 175–189 | 172–190 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 177 | 76% | 173–180 | 171–181 | 170–182 | 167–184 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 172 | 24% | 169–176 | 168–178 | 167–179 | 165–182 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 154 | 0% | 150–157 | 149–158 | 147–159 | 144–161 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 153 | 0% | 149–156 | 147–157 | 146–158 | 142–160 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 142 | 0% | 138–145 | 136–146 | 134–147 | 132–149 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 136 | 0% | 133–140 | 132–142 | 131–144 | 129–148 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 120 | 0% | 116–123 | 115–125 | 114–129 | 112–132 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 123 | 0% | 119–127 | 118–128 | 117–128 | 114–130 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 120 | 0% | 115–122 | 114–123 | 113–124 | 111–126 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 105 | 0% | 102–108 | 101–109 | 99–111 | 97–112 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 97 | 0% | 93–100 | 92–102 | 92–107 | 90–110 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 97 | 0% | 93–99 | 92–100 | 91–101 | 88–103 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 98% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 177 | 2% | 97% | |
| 178 | 3% | 95% | |
| 179 | 4% | 92% | |
| 180 | 8% | 88% | |
| 181 | 9% | 80% | |
| 182 | 7% | 71% | |
| 183 | 11% | 65% | Median |
| 184 | 15% | 54% | |
| 185 | 16% | 39% | |
| 186 | 10% | 23% | |
| 187 | 6% | 12% | |
| 188 | 4% | 7% | |
| 189 | 2% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 170 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 171 | 2% | 96% | |
| 172 | 4% | 95% | |
| 173 | 5% | 91% | |
| 174 | 10% | 86% | |
| 175 | 15% | 76% | Majority |
| 176 | 11% | 62% | |
| 177 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 178 | 17% | 38% | |
| 179 | 8% | 21% | |
| 180 | 7% | 13% | |
| 181 | 3% | 6% | |
| 182 | 2% | 4% | |
| 183 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 168 | 3% | 96% | |
| 169 | 7% | 94% | |
| 170 | 8% | 87% | |
| 171 | 17% | 79% | Median |
| 172 | 12% | 62% | |
| 173 | 11% | 50% | |
| 174 | 15% | 38% | |
| 175 | 10% | 24% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 14% | |
| 177 | 4% | 9% | |
| 178 | 2% | 5% | |
| 179 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 147 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 148 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 149 | 4% | 96% | |
| 150 | 5% | 92% | |
| 151 | 7% | 87% | |
| 152 | 17% | 79% | |
| 153 | 9% | 63% | |
| 154 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 155 | 19% | 41% | |
| 156 | 5% | 21% | |
| 157 | 8% | 16% | |
| 158 | 4% | 8% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 160 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 147 | 2% | 96% | |
| 148 | 2% | 94% | |
| 149 | 5% | 92% | |
| 150 | 5% | 86% | |
| 151 | 13% | 82% | |
| 152 | 10% | 69% | |
| 153 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 154 | 12% | 41% | |
| 155 | 14% | 28% | |
| 156 | 6% | 15% | |
| 157 | 5% | 8% | |
| 158 | 2% | 4% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 134 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 135 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 136 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 137 | 3% | 95% | |
| 138 | 5% | 92% | |
| 139 | 9% | 87% | |
| 140 | 8% | 77% | |
| 141 | 12% | 69% | Median |
| 142 | 24% | 57% | |
| 143 | 10% | 33% | |
| 144 | 9% | 23% | Last Result |
| 145 | 8% | 14% | |
| 146 | 3% | 7% | |
| 147 | 2% | 4% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 3% | 98% | |
| 132 | 3% | 96% | |
| 133 | 7% | 92% | |
| 134 | 13% | 85% | |
| 135 | 15% | 72% | Median |
| 136 | 9% | 57% | |
| 137 | 17% | 48% | |
| 138 | 9% | 30% | |
| 139 | 8% | 21% | |
| 140 | 5% | 13% | |
| 141 | 3% | 8% | |
| 142 | 2% | 5% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 114 | 2% | 98% | |
| 115 | 5% | 96% | |
| 116 | 8% | 91% | |
| 117 | 10% | 84% | |
| 118 | 7% | 73% | |
| 119 | 6% | 66% | Median |
| 120 | 18% | 60% | |
| 121 | 20% | 42% | |
| 122 | 12% | 22% | |
| 123 | 2% | 10% | |
| 124 | 2% | 8% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 126 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 117 | 2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 2% | 96% | |
| 119 | 6% | 94% | |
| 120 | 6% | 88% | |
| 121 | 8% | 83% | |
| 122 | 10% | 75% | |
| 123 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 124 | 15% | 45% | |
| 125 | 10% | 30% | |
| 126 | 10% | 20% | |
| 127 | 5% | 10% | |
| 128 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 129 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 112 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 113 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 114 | 2% | 96% | |
| 115 | 5% | 94% | |
| 116 | 9% | 89% | |
| 117 | 11% | 80% | |
| 118 | 7% | 70% | |
| 119 | 7% | 62% | Median |
| 120 | 18% | 56% | |
| 121 | 20% | 38% | |
| 122 | 12% | 18% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 99 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 100 | 2% | 97% | |
| 101 | 2% | 95% | |
| 102 | 11% | 93% | |
| 103 | 4% | 83% | |
| 104 | 11% | 78% | |
| 105 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 106 | 7% | 40% | |
| 107 | 10% | 33% | |
| 108 | 15% | 23% | |
| 109 | 4% | 8% | |
| 110 | 2% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 112 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 92 | 5% | 98% | |
| 93 | 13% | 93% | |
| 94 | 7% | 80% | |
| 95 | 3% | 73% | |
| 96 | 6% | 70% | Median |
| 97 | 16% | 64% | |
| 98 | 22% | 48% | |
| 99 | 15% | 26% | |
| 100 | 3% | 10% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 92 | 6% | 97% | |
| 93 | 14% | 91% | |
| 94 | 8% | 77% | |
| 95 | 3% | 69% | |
| 96 | 6% | 66% | Median |
| 97 | 16% | 60% | |
| 98 | 23% | 44% | |
| 99 | 15% | 21% | |
| 100 | 3% | 6% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 18 November–15 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3994
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.53%