Opinion Poll by SKOP, 14–24 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 23.3% | 21.6–25.1% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.9% |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 23.1% | 21.4–24.9% | 21.0–25.4% | 20.6–25.8% | 19.8–26.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 17.4% | 16.0–19.1% | 15.6–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.5–20.7% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.6% | 9.4–11.9% | 9.1–12.3% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.3–13.3% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.3% | 7.9–11.6% | 7.4–12.2% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.3–8.5% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 85 | 78–93 | 76–94 | 75–97 | 71–101 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 85 | 77–92 | 76–94 | 74–96 | 72–99 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 64 | 58–70 | 56–72 | 55–74 | 52–77 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 39 | 35–44 | 33–46 | 32–47 | 30–49 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 35 | 31–40 | 30–42 | 29–43 | 27–45 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 25 | 21–29 | 20–30 | 19–31 | 18–33 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 78 | 5% | 93% | |
| 79 | 5% | 89% | |
| 80 | 5% | 84% | |
| 81 | 4% | 79% | |
| 82 | 4% | 76% | |
| 83 | 7% | 72% | |
| 84 | 8% | 64% | |
| 85 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 86 | 8% | 49% | |
| 87 | 6% | 41% | |
| 88 | 5% | 35% | |
| 89 | 7% | 29% | |
| 90 | 3% | 22% | |
| 91 | 3% | 20% | |
| 92 | 3% | 16% | |
| 93 | 6% | 14% | |
| 94 | 3% | 8% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 75 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 77 | 4% | 94% | |
| 78 | 3% | 89% | |
| 79 | 4% | 86% | |
| 80 | 4% | 82% | |
| 81 | 6% | 78% | |
| 82 | 6% | 72% | |
| 83 | 7% | 65% | |
| 84 | 8% | 58% | |
| 85 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 86 | 6% | 44% | |
| 87 | 7% | 38% | |
| 88 | 5% | 31% | |
| 89 | 7% | 26% | |
| 90 | 4% | 19% | |
| 91 | 3% | 15% | |
| 92 | 3% | 12% | |
| 93 | 3% | 9% | |
| 94 | 2% | 6% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 56 | 2% | 97% | |
| 57 | 3% | 95% | |
| 58 | 6% | 92% | |
| 59 | 5% | 85% | |
| 60 | 5% | 80% | |
| 61 | 7% | 76% | |
| 62 | 8% | 69% | |
| 63 | 6% | 60% | |
| 64 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 65 | 7% | 46% | |
| 66 | 9% | 40% | |
| 67 | 5% | 31% | |
| 68 | 6% | 26% | |
| 69 | 6% | 20% | |
| 70 | 3% | 13% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 10% | |
| 72 | 2% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 3% | 97% | |
| 34 | 3% | 94% | |
| 35 | 7% | 91% | |
| 36 | 9% | 83% | |
| 37 | 11% | 74% | |
| 38 | 8% | 64% | |
| 39 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 44% | |
| 41 | 9% | 33% | |
| 42 | 5% | 24% | |
| 43 | 7% | 19% | |
| 44 | 4% | 12% | |
| 45 | 2% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 4% | 97% | |
| 31 | 6% | 93% | Last Result |
| 32 | 7% | 88% | |
| 33 | 12% | 80% | |
| 34 | 14% | 68% | |
| 35 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 36 | 10% | 45% | |
| 37 | 6% | 35% | |
| 38 | 10% | 29% | |
| 39 | 6% | 19% | |
| 40 | 5% | 13% | |
| 41 | 2% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 20 | 5% | 97% | |
| 21 | 7% | 92% | |
| 22 | 7% | 86% | Last Result |
| 23 | 10% | 79% | |
| 24 | 12% | 69% | |
| 25 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 26 | 11% | 42% | |
| 27 | 12% | 31% | |
| 28 | 8% | 19% | |
| 29 | 4% | 11% | |
| 30 | 3% | 7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 56% | |
| 2 | 0% | 56% | |
| 3 | 0% | 56% | |
| 4 | 0% | 56% | |
| 5 | 0% | 56% | |
| 6 | 0% | 56% | |
| 7 | 0% | 56% | |
| 8 | 0% | 56% | |
| 9 | 0% | 56% | |
| 10 | 0% | 56% | |
| 11 | 0% | 56% | |
| 12 | 0% | 56% | |
| 13 | 0% | 56% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 56% | |
| 15 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 40% | Last Result |
| 17 | 10% | 25% | |
| 18 | 7% | 14% | |
| 19 | 4% | 7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 37% | |
| 4 | 0% | 37% | |
| 5 | 0% | 37% | |
| 6 | 0% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0% | 37% | |
| 8 | 0% | 37% | |
| 9 | 0% | 37% | |
| 10 | 0% | 37% | |
| 11 | 0% | 37% | |
| 12 | 0% | 37% | |
| 13 | 0% | 37% | |
| 14 | 3% | 37% | |
| 15 | 13% | 35% | |
| 16 | 10% | 22% | |
| 17 | 5% | 11% | |
| 18 | 3% | 6% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 185 | 89% | 174–196 | 169–199 | 169–200 | 165–206 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 175 | 53% | 163–185 | 161–188 | 159–190 | 154–193 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 174 | 47% | 164–186 | 161–188 | 159–190 | 156–195 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 149 | 0% | 139–158 | 136–162 | 135–165 | 131–167 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 150 | 0% | 139–161 | 137–162 | 135–164 | 132–169 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 136 | 0% | 123–148 | 120–150 | 119–152 | 114–155 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 134 | 0% | 122–144 | 119–146 | 118–149 | 113–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 130 | 0% | 120–141 | 118–144 | 115–146 | 112–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 124 | 0% | 116–134 | 114–136 | 112–138 | 108–142 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 123 | 0% | 114–133 | 113–134 | 112–137 | 107–140 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 105 | 0% | 96–116 | 93–119 | 91–121 | 88–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 99 | 0% | 92–107 | 90–110 | 89–111 | 85–115 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 94 | 0% | 83–104 | 80–107 | 79–108 | 75–112 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 169 | 3% | 98% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 173 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 174 | 2% | 91% | |
| 175 | 4% | 89% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 86% | |
| 177 | 5% | 83% | |
| 178 | 6% | 79% | |
| 179 | 4% | 73% | |
| 180 | 3% | 69% | |
| 181 | 3% | 65% | |
| 182 | 4% | 62% | |
| 183 | 4% | 58% | |
| 184 | 3% | 54% | Median |
| 185 | 6% | 51% | |
| 186 | 4% | 45% | |
| 187 | 4% | 41% | |
| 188 | 9% | 37% | |
| 189 | 4% | 28% | |
| 190 | 2% | 23% | |
| 191 | 4% | 21% | |
| 192 | 2% | 17% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 194 | 2% | 14% | |
| 195 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 196 | 3% | 11% | |
| 197 | 2% | 8% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 199 | 2% | 5% | |
| 200 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 206 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 161 | 5% | 96% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 164 | 2% | 89% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 166 | 3% | 86% | |
| 167 | 4% | 83% | |
| 168 | 3% | 79% | |
| 169 | 3% | 76% | |
| 170 | 3% | 72% | |
| 171 | 3% | 69% | |
| 172 | 4% | 66% | |
| 173 | 5% | 62% | |
| 174 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 175 | 6% | 53% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 46% | |
| 177 | 7% | 42% | |
| 178 | 4% | 35% | |
| 179 | 5% | 31% | |
| 180 | 2% | 27% | |
| 181 | 5% | 24% | |
| 182 | 3% | 19% | |
| 183 | 2% | 16% | |
| 184 | 2% | 15% | |
| 185 | 4% | 13% | |
| 186 | 2% | 9% | |
| 187 | 2% | 7% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 190 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 162 | 2% | 95% | |
| 163 | 2% | 93% | |
| 164 | 4% | 91% | |
| 165 | 2% | 87% | |
| 166 | 2% | 85% | |
| 167 | 3% | 84% | |
| 168 | 5% | 81% | |
| 169 | 2% | 76% | |
| 170 | 5% | 73% | |
| 171 | 4% | 69% | |
| 172 | 7% | 65% | |
| 173 | 5% | 58% | |
| 174 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 175 | 4% | 47% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 43% | |
| 177 | 4% | 38% | |
| 178 | 3% | 34% | |
| 179 | 3% | 31% | |
| 180 | 3% | 28% | |
| 181 | 3% | 24% | |
| 182 | 4% | 21% | |
| 183 | 3% | 17% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 185 | 2% | 13% | |
| 186 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 187 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 188 | 5% | 9% | |
| 189 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 135 | 2% | 98% | |
| 136 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 137 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 138 | 2% | 93% | |
| 139 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 140 | 3% | 90% | |
| 141 | 3% | 87% | |
| 142 | 4% | 84% | |
| 143 | 3% | 80% | |
| 144 | 7% | 77% | |
| 145 | 4% | 70% | |
| 146 | 4% | 66% | |
| 147 | 6% | 62% | |
| 148 | 6% | 56% | |
| 149 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 150 | 3% | 45% | |
| 151 | 6% | 42% | |
| 152 | 5% | 36% | |
| 153 | 4% | 31% | |
| 154 | 4% | 27% | |
| 155 | 5% | 23% | |
| 156 | 3% | 18% | |
| 157 | 2% | 15% | |
| 158 | 3% | 13% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 160 | 2% | 9% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 162 | 2% | 6% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 165 | 2% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 136 | 2% | 97% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 139 | 4% | 93% | |
| 140 | 2% | 90% | |
| 141 | 2% | 88% | |
| 142 | 3% | 86% | |
| 143 | 6% | 83% | |
| 144 | 4% | 77% | |
| 145 | 5% | 73% | |
| 146 | 3% | 69% | |
| 147 | 5% | 66% | |
| 148 | 6% | 61% | |
| 149 | 4% | 55% | Median |
| 150 | 6% | 51% | |
| 151 | 7% | 45% | |
| 152 | 6% | 39% | |
| 153 | 4% | 33% | |
| 154 | 3% | 29% | |
| 155 | 3% | 25% | |
| 156 | 3% | 22% | |
| 157 | 2% | 19% | |
| 158 | 3% | 17% | |
| 159 | 2% | 14% | |
| 160 | 2% | 12% | |
| 161 | 5% | 10% | |
| 162 | 2% | 5% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 120 | 3% | 97% | |
| 121 | 2% | 94% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 123 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 124 | 3% | 90% | |
| 125 | 2% | 87% | |
| 126 | 2% | 85% | |
| 127 | 5% | 82% | |
| 128 | 2% | 77% | |
| 129 | 0.8% | 75% | |
| 130 | 3% | 74% | |
| 131 | 4% | 71% | |
| 132 | 4% | 66% | |
| 133 | 3% | 62% | |
| 134 | 4% | 59% | |
| 135 | 3% | 54% | Median |
| 136 | 4% | 52% | |
| 137 | 6% | 47% | |
| 138 | 4% | 41% | |
| 139 | 4% | 37% | |
| 140 | 4% | 33% | |
| 141 | 2% | 29% | |
| 142 | 7% | 28% | |
| 143 | 2% | 21% | |
| 144 | 2% | 18% | |
| 145 | 2% | 17% | |
| 146 | 2% | 14% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 148 | 2% | 11% | |
| 149 | 4% | 9% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 151 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 152 | 2% | 4% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 118 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 119 | 2% | 96% | |
| 120 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 121 | 3% | 93% | |
| 122 | 2% | 91% | |
| 123 | 3% | 89% | |
| 124 | 2% | 86% | |
| 125 | 2% | 84% | |
| 126 | 3% | 82% | |
| 127 | 3% | 79% | |
| 128 | 6% | 76% | |
| 129 | 3% | 71% | |
| 130 | 5% | 67% | |
| 131 | 4% | 62% | |
| 132 | 5% | 58% | |
| 133 | 3% | 54% | |
| 134 | 5% | 50% | |
| 135 | 6% | 45% | |
| 136 | 5% | 39% | |
| 137 | 4% | 34% | |
| 138 | 3% | 29% | |
| 139 | 4% | 26% | Median |
| 140 | 3% | 22% | |
| 141 | 2% | 19% | |
| 142 | 3% | 17% | |
| 143 | 3% | 14% | |
| 144 | 4% | 10% | Last Result |
| 145 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 116 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 118 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 119 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 120 | 3% | 93% | |
| 121 | 4% | 90% | |
| 122 | 2% | 86% | |
| 123 | 4% | 84% | |
| 124 | 4% | 80% | Median |
| 125 | 3% | 76% | |
| 126 | 3% | 73% | |
| 127 | 5% | 70% | |
| 128 | 7% | 64% | |
| 129 | 5% | 58% | |
| 130 | 3% | 52% | |
| 131 | 5% | 49% | |
| 132 | 6% | 45% | |
| 133 | 4% | 38% | |
| 134 | 6% | 35% | |
| 135 | 2% | 29% | |
| 136 | 6% | 27% | |
| 137 | 3% | 21% | |
| 138 | 2% | 19% | |
| 139 | 2% | 17% | |
| 140 | 3% | 14% | |
| 141 | 2% | 11% | |
| 142 | 2% | 9% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 145 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 114 | 3% | 96% | |
| 115 | 2% | 93% | |
| 116 | 3% | 91% | |
| 117 | 4% | 87% | |
| 118 | 3% | 83% | |
| 119 | 3% | 81% | |
| 120 | 7% | 77% | |
| 121 | 5% | 70% | |
| 122 | 5% | 65% | |
| 123 | 6% | 60% | Last Result |
| 124 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 125 | 5% | 49% | |
| 126 | 4% | 44% | |
| 127 | 6% | 40% | |
| 128 | 8% | 34% | |
| 129 | 4% | 26% | |
| 130 | 3% | 22% | |
| 131 | 5% | 19% | |
| 132 | 2% | 14% | |
| 133 | 2% | 12% | |
| 134 | 4% | 10% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 136 | 2% | 6% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 112 | 2% | 98% | |
| 113 | 2% | 96% | |
| 114 | 4% | 94% | |
| 115 | 2% | 90% | |
| 116 | 3% | 88% | |
| 117 | 3% | 86% | |
| 118 | 4% | 83% | |
| 119 | 6% | 79% | |
| 120 | 5% | 73% | |
| 121 | 5% | 67% | |
| 122 | 7% | 62% | |
| 123 | 6% | 56% | |
| 124 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 125 | 4% | 45% | |
| 126 | 5% | 41% | |
| 127 | 4% | 37% | |
| 128 | 10% | 33% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 23% | |
| 130 | 2% | 20% | |
| 131 | 4% | 18% | |
| 132 | 3% | 14% | |
| 133 | 2% | 11% | |
| 134 | 3% | 8% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 136 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 95 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 96 | 5% | 92% | |
| 97 | 3% | 87% | |
| 98 | 4% | 84% | |
| 99 | 6% | 80% | Median |
| 100 | 2% | 74% | |
| 101 | 6% | 72% | |
| 102 | 3% | 66% | |
| 103 | 5% | 63% | |
| 104 | 4% | 58% | |
| 105 | 7% | 55% | |
| 106 | 2% | 48% | |
| 107 | 7% | 45% | |
| 108 | 4% | 39% | |
| 109 | 5% | 35% | |
| 110 | 4% | 30% | |
| 111 | 5% | 26% | |
| 112 | 2% | 21% | |
| 113 | 2% | 19% | |
| 114 | 3% | 17% | |
| 115 | 3% | 14% | |
| 116 | 2% | 11% | |
| 117 | 2% | 9% | |
| 118 | 2% | 7% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0.8% | 3% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 90 | 3% | 96% | |
| 91 | 2% | 93% | |
| 92 | 4% | 91% | |
| 93 | 4% | 88% | |
| 94 | 4% | 83% | |
| 95 | 5% | 80% | |
| 96 | 8% | 75% | |
| 97 | 5% | 67% | |
| 98 | 6% | 62% | |
| 99 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 100 | 5% | 48% | |
| 101 | 7% | 43% | Last Result |
| 102 | 4% | 35% | |
| 103 | 5% | 31% | |
| 104 | 4% | 26% | |
| 105 | 7% | 22% | |
| 106 | 2% | 15% | |
| 107 | 4% | 13% | |
| 108 | 3% | 9% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 2% | 96% | |
| 81 | 2% | 94% | |
| 82 | 2% | 93% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 84 | 3% | 89% | |
| 85 | 2% | 85% | |
| 86 | 3% | 83% | |
| 87 | 5% | 80% | |
| 88 | 3% | 75% | |
| 89 | 4% | 73% | |
| 90 | 4% | 68% | |
| 91 | 3% | 64% | |
| 92 | 4% | 62% | |
| 93 | 6% | 58% | |
| 94 | 4% | 53% | |
| 95 | 2% | 49% | |
| 96 | 5% | 47% | |
| 97 | 4% | 42% | |
| 98 | 4% | 38% | |
| 99 | 5% | 35% | |
| 100 | 8% | 29% | Median |
| 101 | 3% | 22% | |
| 102 | 3% | 19% | |
| 103 | 2% | 16% | |
| 104 | 6% | 14% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 106 | 2% | 7% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SKOP
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–24 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1009
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.57%