Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 27 January–16 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 23.9% | 22.9–24.9% | 22.6–25.2% | 22.4–25.4% | 22.0–25.9% |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 23.2% | 22.3–24.2% | 22.0–24.5% | 21.7–24.7% | 21.3–25.2% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.0% | 17.1–18.9% | 16.9–19.2% | 16.7–19.4% | 16.3–19.9% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.9% | 10.2–11.7% | 10.0–11.9% | 9.9–12.1% | 9.5–12.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5–8.8% | 7.3–9.0% | 7.2–9.1% | 6.9–9.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4–6.5% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.1–6.8% | 4.9–7.1% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.0–5.0% | 3.9–5.2% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.5–4.4% | 3.4–4.5% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.1–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 86 | 82–91 | 81–93 | 80–94 | 78–96 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 84 | 80–88 | 79–90 | 78–91 | 76–95 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 66 | 61–69 | 61–71 | 59–71 | 58–74 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 39 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 35–46 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 25–35 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 21 | 20–24 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 15–18 | 0–19 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 81 | 3% | 97% | |
| 82 | 5% | 94% | |
| 83 | 7% | 88% | |
| 84 | 9% | 81% | |
| 85 | 10% | 71% | |
| 86 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 87 | 9% | 48% | |
| 88 | 7% | 39% | |
| 89 | 7% | 31% | |
| 90 | 12% | 25% | |
| 91 | 5% | 12% | |
| 92 | 3% | 8% | |
| 93 | 2% | 5% | |
| 94 | 2% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 78 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 97% | |
| 80 | 5% | 94% | |
| 81 | 11% | 89% | |
| 82 | 6% | 79% | |
| 83 | 12% | 73% | |
| 84 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 85 | 16% | 47% | |
| 86 | 11% | 32% | |
| 87 | 6% | 20% | |
| 88 | 6% | 14% | |
| 89 | 2% | 8% | |
| 90 | 2% | 6% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 97% | |
| 61 | 7% | 96% | |
| 62 | 9% | 89% | |
| 63 | 7% | 80% | |
| 64 | 7% | 73% | |
| 65 | 13% | 66% | |
| 66 | 20% | 53% | Median |
| 67 | 10% | 32% | |
| 68 | 7% | 23% | |
| 69 | 8% | 15% | |
| 70 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 5% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98% | |
| 37 | 8% | 94% | |
| 38 | 14% | 86% | |
| 39 | 26% | 72% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 46% | |
| 41 | 12% | 29% | |
| 42 | 8% | 17% | |
| 43 | 5% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 27 | 7% | 94% | |
| 28 | 17% | 87% | |
| 29 | 20% | 70% | |
| 30 | 21% | 50% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 30% | Last Result |
| 32 | 7% | 15% | |
| 33 | 6% | 8% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 7% | 98% | |
| 20 | 24% | 91% | |
| 21 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 22 | 24% | 49% | Last Result |
| 23 | 14% | 25% | |
| 24 | 6% | 11% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 0% | 93% | |
| 8 | 0% | 93% | |
| 9 | 0% | 93% | |
| 10 | 0% | 93% | |
| 11 | 0% | 93% | |
| 12 | 0% | 93% | |
| 13 | 0% | 93% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 15 | 18% | 92% | |
| 16 | 30% | 74% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 24% | 44% | |
| 18 | 14% | 20% | |
| 19 | 6% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 45% | |
| 2 | 0% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0% | 45% | |
| 4 | 0% | 45% | |
| 5 | 0% | 45% | |
| 6 | 0% | 45% | |
| 7 | 0% | 45% | |
| 8 | 0% | 45% | |
| 9 | 0% | 45% | |
| 10 | 0% | 45% | |
| 11 | 0% | 45% | |
| 12 | 0% | 45% | |
| 13 | 0% | 45% | |
| 14 | 12% | 45% | |
| 15 | 21% | 33% | |
| 16 | 10% | 12% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 179 | 80% | 173–186 | 171–188 | 170–190 | 167–196 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 176 | 55% | 169–183 | 167–184 | 165–185 | 160–187 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 173 | 45% | 166–180 | 165–182 | 164–184 | 162–189 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 152 | 0% | 146–159 | 144–160 | 143–161 | 141–166 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 150 | 0% | 144–155 | 143–157 | 141–159 | 138–165 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 140 | 0% | 133–145 | 130–147 | 127–148 | 124–150 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 135 | 0% | 129–144 | 127–145 | 124–146 | 118–148 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 122 | 0% | 116–131 | 114–133 | 113–135 | 111–137 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 124 | 0% | 119–129 | 117–131 | 116–132 | 114–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 117 | 0% | 110–121 | 109–123 | 109–124 | 106–128 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 101 | 0% | 94–110 | 92–112 | 91–113 | 90–115 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 100 | 0% | 95–105 | 90–106 | 86–108 | 83–109 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 95 | 0% | 89–100 | 89–101 | 88–102 | 86–105 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 169 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 170 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 171 | 2% | 96% | |
| 172 | 2% | 94% | |
| 173 | 8% | 92% | |
| 174 | 5% | 85% | |
| 175 | 6% | 80% | Majority |
| 176 | 9% | 74% | |
| 177 | 6% | 66% | |
| 178 | 6% | 59% | |
| 179 | 4% | 53% | |
| 180 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 181 | 12% | 44% | |
| 182 | 5% | 32% | |
| 183 | 7% | 27% | |
| 184 | 6% | 21% | |
| 185 | 4% | 15% | |
| 186 | 4% | 11% | |
| 187 | 2% | 7% | |
| 188 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 189 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 166 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 167 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 168 | 4% | 95% | |
| 169 | 5% | 91% | Median |
| 170 | 6% | 86% | |
| 171 | 8% | 80% | |
| 172 | 6% | 72% | |
| 173 | 4% | 66% | |
| 174 | 8% | 62% | |
| 175 | 4% | 55% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 51% | |
| 177 | 4% | 45% | |
| 178 | 7% | 40% | |
| 179 | 4% | 33% | |
| 180 | 11% | 29% | |
| 181 | 2% | 18% | |
| 182 | 4% | 16% | |
| 183 | 6% | 12% | |
| 184 | 3% | 6% | |
| 185 | 2% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 3% | 97% | |
| 166 | 6% | 94% | |
| 167 | 4% | 88% | |
| 168 | 2% | 84% | |
| 169 | 11% | 82% | |
| 170 | 4% | 71% | |
| 171 | 7% | 67% | |
| 172 | 4% | 60% | |
| 173 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 174 | 4% | 49% | |
| 175 | 8% | 45% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 38% | |
| 177 | 6% | 34% | |
| 178 | 8% | 28% | |
| 179 | 6% | 20% | |
| 180 | 5% | 14% | |
| 181 | 4% | 9% | |
| 182 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 183 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 143 | 2% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 96% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 146 | 7% | 94% | |
| 147 | 5% | 86% | |
| 148 | 6% | 81% | |
| 149 | 10% | 75% | |
| 150 | 6% | 64% | |
| 151 | 5% | 58% | |
| 152 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 153 | 8% | 46% | |
| 154 | 6% | 38% | |
| 155 | 4% | 32% | |
| 156 | 9% | 27% | |
| 157 | 4% | 19% | |
| 158 | 4% | 15% | |
| 159 | 4% | 11% | |
| 160 | 3% | 6% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 141 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 142 | 2% | 97% | |
| 143 | 3% | 95% | |
| 144 | 6% | 92% | |
| 145 | 6% | 86% | |
| 146 | 5% | 80% | |
| 147 | 9% | 75% | |
| 148 | 10% | 66% | |
| 149 | 4% | 56% | |
| 150 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 151 | 12% | 46% | |
| 152 | 5% | 33% | |
| 153 | 10% | 29% | |
| 154 | 4% | 19% | |
| 155 | 5% | 15% | |
| 156 | 3% | 9% | |
| 157 | 2% | 6% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 127 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 132 | 2% | 93% | |
| 133 | 3% | 92% | |
| 134 | 2% | 89% | |
| 135 | 10% | 87% | |
| 136 | 3% | 76% | |
| 137 | 6% | 74% | |
| 138 | 9% | 68% | |
| 139 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 140 | 11% | 52% | |
| 141 | 9% | 40% | |
| 142 | 5% | 31% | |
| 143 | 5% | 26% | |
| 144 | 5% | 20% | Last Result |
| 145 | 6% | 15% | |
| 146 | 3% | 9% | |
| 147 | 3% | 6% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 127 | 2% | 96% | |
| 128 | 2% | 94% | |
| 129 | 6% | 92% | |
| 130 | 7% | 86% | Median |
| 131 | 9% | 80% | |
| 132 | 6% | 71% | |
| 133 | 5% | 65% | |
| 134 | 6% | 60% | |
| 135 | 5% | 54% | |
| 136 | 3% | 49% | |
| 137 | 4% | 45% | |
| 138 | 2% | 42% | |
| 139 | 5% | 39% | |
| 140 | 4% | 34% | |
| 141 | 5% | 30% | |
| 142 | 8% | 26% | |
| 143 | 4% | 18% | |
| 144 | 7% | 14% | |
| 145 | 3% | 7% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 114 | 4% | 97% | |
| 115 | 2% | 93% | |
| 116 | 3% | 91% | |
| 117 | 4% | 88% | Median |
| 118 | 13% | 84% | |
| 119 | 5% | 71% | |
| 120 | 4% | 66% | |
| 121 | 9% | 63% | |
| 122 | 4% | 54% | |
| 123 | 3% | 50% | |
| 124 | 8% | 47% | |
| 125 | 2% | 38% | |
| 126 | 4% | 37% | |
| 127 | 3% | 33% | |
| 128 | 7% | 30% | |
| 129 | 5% | 22% | |
| 130 | 5% | 17% | |
| 131 | 5% | 13% | |
| 132 | 2% | 8% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 134 | 2% | 4% | |
| 135 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 117 | 2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 4% | 95% | |
| 119 | 7% | 91% | |
| 120 | 8% | 84% | |
| 121 | 4% | 76% | |
| 122 | 11% | 72% | |
| 123 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 124 | 8% | 51% | |
| 125 | 12% | 44% | |
| 126 | 6% | 32% | |
| 127 | 6% | 26% | |
| 128 | 7% | 20% | Last Result |
| 129 | 4% | 12% | |
| 130 | 2% | 8% | |
| 131 | 2% | 6% | |
| 132 | 2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 109 | 5% | 98% | |
| 110 | 4% | 93% | |
| 111 | 3% | 89% | |
| 112 | 4% | 86% | |
| 113 | 8% | 82% | |
| 114 | 10% | 74% | |
| 115 | 5% | 65% | |
| 116 | 10% | 60% | |
| 117 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 118 | 13% | 44% | |
| 119 | 6% | 31% | |
| 120 | 5% | 24% | |
| 121 | 9% | 19% | |
| 122 | 4% | 10% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 124 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 125 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 92 | 3% | 97% | |
| 93 | 3% | 95% | |
| 94 | 3% | 92% | |
| 95 | 6% | 88% | |
| 96 | 10% | 83% | Median |
| 97 | 6% | 73% | |
| 98 | 5% | 66% | |
| 99 | 7% | 61% | |
| 100 | 4% | 54% | |
| 101 | 2% | 50% | |
| 102 | 3% | 48% | |
| 103 | 4% | 45% | |
| 104 | 6% | 41% | |
| 105 | 2% | 35% | |
| 106 | 5% | 34% | |
| 107 | 3% | 29% | |
| 108 | 6% | 26% | |
| 109 | 8% | 20% | |
| 110 | 3% | 12% | |
| 111 | 3% | 9% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 2% | 4% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 86 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 90 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 93 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 94 | 2% | 92% | |
| 95 | 2% | 90% | |
| 96 | 5% | 88% | |
| 97 | 10% | 84% | |
| 98 | 6% | 74% | |
| 99 | 8% | 67% | |
| 100 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 101 | 18% | 48% | |
| 102 | 5% | 30% | |
| 103 | 5% | 25% | |
| 104 | 9% | 20% | |
| 105 | 5% | 11% | |
| 106 | 2% | 6% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 89 | 7% | 97% | |
| 90 | 3% | 90% | |
| 91 | 6% | 87% | |
| 92 | 6% | 81% | |
| 93 | 9% | 75% | |
| 94 | 10% | 66% | |
| 95 | 10% | 56% | |
| 96 | 13% | 46% | Median |
| 97 | 8% | 33% | |
| 98 | 7% | 25% | |
| 99 | 8% | 18% | |
| 100 | 4% | 10% | |
| 101 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 102 | 2% | 4% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 27 January–16 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 3098
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.59%