Opinion Poll by Sifo, 1–11 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 30.0% 29.3–30.7% 29.1–30.9% 29.0–31.0% 28.7–31.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 19.5% 18.9–20.1% 18.8–20.3% 18.6–20.4% 18.4–20.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.9% 18.3–19.5% 18.2–19.7% 18.0–19.8% 17.8–20.1%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 9.6% 9.2–10.0% 9.1–10.2% 8.9–10.3% 8.7–10.5%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 7.0% 6.6–7.4% 6.5–7.5% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 6.8% 6.4–7.2% 6.3–7.3% 6.2–7.4% 6.1–7.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 3.5% 3.2–3.8% 3.2–3.9% 3.1–3.9% 3.0–4.1%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.4% 3.1–3.7% 3.1–3.8% 3.0–3.8% 2.9–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 114 111–116 111–117 110–118 108–119
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 75 72–76 71–77 71–78 69–79
Sverigedemokraterna 62 72 70–74 69–75 68–75 67–76
Vänsterpartiet 28 36 35–38 34–39 34–39 33–40
Centerpartiet 31 27 25–28 25–28 25–29 24–30
Kristdemokraterna 22 26 24–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 0 0 0 0 0–15
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.3% 99.8%  
108 0.4% 99.6%  
109 1.4% 99.2%  
110 2% 98%  
111 7% 96%  
112 13% 89%  
113 19% 76%  
114 23% 57% Median
115 14% 33%  
116 10% 19%  
117 5% 9%  
118 2% 4%  
119 1.2% 1.5%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
71 4% 98.7%  
72 18% 94%  
73 13% 77%  
74 10% 64%  
75 30% 54% Median
76 18% 24%  
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.0%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.2%  
69 6% 97%  
70 12% 92%  
71 21% 80%  
72 26% 59% Median
73 14% 34%  
74 12% 19%  
75 5% 7%  
76 1.0% 1.4%  
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.9%  
34 6% 99.2%  
35 11% 94%  
36 38% 83% Median
37 22% 44%  
38 16% 22%  
39 5% 6%  
40 1.3% 1.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.8%  
25 17% 98%  
26 27% 81%  
27 37% 54% Median
28 13% 17%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100% Last Result
23 1.3% 99.9%  
24 9% 98.6%  
25 30% 90%  
26 33% 60% Median
27 21% 27%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.9% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 0% 1.2%  
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0% 1.2%  
8 0% 1.2%  
9 0% 1.2%  
10 0% 1.2%  
11 0% 1.2%  
12 0% 1.2%  
13 0% 1.2%  
14 0% 1.2%  
15 1.1% 1.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0% 0.5%  
8 0% 0.5%  
9 0% 0.5%  
10 0% 0.5%  
11 0% 0.5%  
12 0% 0.5%  
13 0% 0.5%  
14 0% 0.5%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 215 100% 212–217 211–218 210–219 204–220
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 188 100% 185–191 184–192 183–193 179–194
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 177 90% 174–180 174–181 173–182 172–185
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 172 10% 169–175 168–175 167–176 164–177
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 150 0% 148–153 147–154 146–155 144–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 150 0% 148–153 147–154 146–155 143–156
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 146 0% 143–149 142–150 141–150 139–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 140 0% 138–143 138–144 137–146 136–150
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 127 0% 124–129 123–130 122–131 121–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 127 0% 124–129 123–130 122–131 120–132
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 114 0% 111–117 111–117 110–119 109–124
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 101 0% 98–103 97–104 97–105 95–108
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 101 0% 98–103 97–104 97–104 95–106

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0.1% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.2% 99.7%  
205 0.3% 99.5%  
206 0.4% 99.2%  
207 0.2% 98.8%  
208 0.2% 98.6%  
209 0.3% 98%  
210 1.1% 98%  
211 3% 97%  
212 9% 94%  
213 15% 85%  
214 16% 70%  
215 21% 54%  
216 17% 33% Median
217 8% 16%  
218 4% 8%  
219 3% 4%  
220 0.7% 0.9%  
221 0.2% 0.3%  
222 0.1% 0.1%  
223 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100% Majority
176 0.1% 100%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.2% 99.8%  
179 0.2% 99.6%  
180 0.2% 99.4%  
181 0.5% 99.2%  
182 0.4% 98.7%  
183 1.2% 98%  
184 2% 97%  
185 6% 95%  
186 13% 89%  
187 14% 76%  
188 18% 62%  
189 23% 44% Median
190 9% 21%  
191 7% 13%  
192 3% 6%  
193 2% 3%  
194 0.5% 0.5%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0.1% 100%  
171 0.3% 99.9%  
172 0.5% 99.6%  
173 3% 99.1%  
174 7% 96%  
175 11% 90% Majority
176 19% 78%  
177 24% 59% Median
178 11% 36%  
179 14% 25%  
180 5% 12%  
181 2% 6%  
182 2% 4%  
183 0.6% 2%  
184 0.3% 1.1%  
185 0.4% 0.8%  
186 0.3% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0.1% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0.1% 100%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.3% 99.8%  
164 0.4% 99.6%  
165 0.3% 99.2%  
166 0.6% 98.9%  
167 2% 98%  
168 2% 96%  
169 5% 94%  
170 14% 88%  
171 11% 75%  
172 24% 64%  
173 19% 41% Median
174 11% 22%  
175 7% 10% Majority
176 3% 4%  
177 0.5% 0.9%  
178 0.3% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.2% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
145 0.5% 99.5%  
146 3% 99.0%  
147 4% 96%  
148 8% 93%  
149 18% 85%  
150 20% 66% Median
151 16% 47%  
152 15% 30%  
153 8% 16%  
154 3% 8%  
155 2% 4%  
156 0.7% 2%  
157 0.2% 1.3%  
158 0.4% 1.0%  
159 0.2% 0.7%  
160 0.2% 0.4%  
161 0.2% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.2% 99.8%  
143 0.6% 99.7%  
144 0.5% 99.1%  
145 0.6% 98.6%  
146 3% 98%  
147 4% 95%  
148 8% 92%  
149 18% 84%  
150 20% 65% Median
151 16% 45%  
152 15% 29%  
153 8% 14%  
154 3% 6%  
155 2% 3%  
156 0.7% 0.8%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.4% 99.7%  
140 0.7% 99.3%  
141 1.3% 98.6%  
142 3% 97%  
143 7% 94%  
144 11% 87%  
145 12% 76%  
146 15% 64%  
147 26% 49% Median
148 11% 23%  
149 7% 12%  
150 4% 5%  
151 1.0% 1.4%  
152 0.2% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.2% 99.9%  
136 2% 99.7%  
137 3% 98%  
138 10% 95%  
139 19% 86%  
140 17% 66%  
141 21% 49% Median
142 12% 28%  
143 7% 15%  
144 4% 9%  
145 2% 5%  
146 0.6% 3%  
147 0.5% 2%  
148 0.3% 1.4%  
149 0.4% 1.1%  
150 0.3% 0.7%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.6% 99.6%  
122 2% 99.0%  
123 7% 97%  
124 7% 91%  
125 10% 84%  
126 17% 74%  
127 23% 57%  
128 19% 33% Median
129 6% 14%  
130 4% 8%  
131 2% 4%  
132 0.7% 1.4%  
133 0.2% 0.7%  
134 0% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.2% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.3% 99.7%  
121 0.7% 99.4%  
122 2% 98.7%  
123 7% 97% Last Result
124 7% 90%  
125 10% 84%  
126 17% 73%  
127 23% 56%  
128 19% 33% Median
129 6% 14%  
130 4% 8%  
131 2% 3%  
132 0.7% 0.9%  
133 0.2% 0.2%  
134 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.3% 99.9%  
109 1.1% 99.6%  
110 2% 98%  
111 6% 96%  
112 13% 90%  
113 19% 77%  
114 23% 58% Median
115 14% 34%  
116 10% 21% Last Result
117 5% 10%  
118 2% 5%  
119 1.2% 3%  
120 0.3% 1.5%  
121 0.1% 1.2%  
122 0.2% 1.1%  
123 0.2% 0.9%  
124 0.3% 0.8%  
125 0.1% 0.5%  
126 0.2% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 0.8% 99.4%  
97 4% 98.6%  
98 9% 94%  
99 13% 85%  
100 11% 72%  
101 17% 60%  
102 27% 43% Median
103 10% 16%  
104 3% 6%  
105 1.4% 3%  
106 0.7% 1.4%  
107 0.2% 0.7%  
108 0% 0.5%  
109 0% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 0.9% 99.3%  
97 4% 98%  
98 9% 94%  
99 13% 85%  
100 11% 71%  
101 17% 60% Last Result
102 27% 42% Median
103 10% 15%  
104 3% 5%  
105 1.4% 2%  
106 0.7% 0.9%  
107 0.2% 0.2%  
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations