Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 25 May–21 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 30.6% 29.6–31.6% 29.4–31.8% 29.1–32.1% 28.7–32.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 20.7% 19.9–21.6% 19.6–21.8% 19.4–22.0% 19.1–22.5%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.4% 17.6–19.2% 17.4–19.5% 17.2–19.7% 16.8–20.1%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 9.4% 8.8–10.0% 8.6–10.2% 8.5–10.4% 8.2–10.7%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 7.8% 7.3–8.4% 7.1–8.6% 7.0–8.7% 6.7–9.0%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 5.7% 5.2–6.2% 5.1–6.4% 5.0–6.5% 4.8–6.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 3.4% 3.0–3.8% 3.0–3.9% 2.9–4.0% 2.7–4.3%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.0% 2.7–3.4% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 116 112–119 111–120 110–121 107–122
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 78 75–81 73–82 73–83 71–84
Sverigedemokraterna 62 69 66–72 65–73 64–74 63–75
Vänsterpartiet 28 35 33–38 32–38 32–39 31–40
Centerpartiet 31 29 27–31 27–32 26–33 25–34
Kristdemokraterna 22 21 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 0 0 0 0–15 0–16
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.8%  
108 0.7% 99.4%  
109 0.9% 98.7%  
110 3% 98%  
111 3% 95%  
112 4% 92%  
113 12% 89%  
114 12% 76%  
115 8% 64%  
116 23% 57% Median
117 8% 34%  
118 9% 26%  
119 12% 17%  
120 2% 5%  
121 2% 3%  
122 1.0% 1.3%  
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
71 0.6% 99.8%  
72 1.0% 99.1%  
73 3% 98%  
74 4% 95%  
75 8% 90%  
76 12% 82%  
77 17% 70%  
78 14% 53% Median
79 15% 39%  
80 10% 25%  
81 7% 15%  
82 5% 8%  
83 1.5% 3%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.6% 99.7%  
64 3% 99.1%  
65 3% 97%  
66 6% 94%  
67 9% 88%  
68 21% 79%  
69 14% 59% Median
70 13% 45%  
71 18% 32%  
72 7% 14%  
73 4% 7%  
74 1.4% 3%  
75 1.4% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 100%  
31 1.1% 99.7%  
32 4% 98.6%  
33 9% 94%  
34 19% 86%  
35 22% 66% Median
36 17% 44%  
37 16% 27%  
38 7% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.8% 1.1%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 9% 97%  
28 22% 87%  
29 20% 66% Median
30 24% 46%  
31 12% 22% Last Result
32 7% 10%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 6% 98%  
20 21% 92%  
21 28% 71% Median
22 24% 43% Last Result
23 12% 19%  
24 6% 7%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 0% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 0% 3%  
14 0% 3%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 223 100% 219–226 217–228 215–229 211–230
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 194 100% 189–197 188–198 186–199 182–201
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 181 98% 177–185 176–186 175–187 173–192
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 168 2% 164–172 163–173 162–174 157–176
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 151 0% 148–155 146–157 145–159 144–163
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 151 0% 147–155 146–155 144–157 141–158
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 147 0% 143–151 142–152 141–153 137–155
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 145 0% 142–149 141–151 139–153 137–158
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 129 0% 125–132 124–133 122–134 121–136
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 129 0% 125–132 124–133 122–134 121–136
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 116 0% 113–119 111–121 110–124 108–129
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 107 0% 103–111 102–112 102–113 100–114
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 107 0% 103–111 102–112 102–113 100–114

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.2% 99.8%  
211 0.8% 99.6%  
212 0.2% 98.7%  
213 0.3% 98.6%  
214 0.6% 98%  
215 0.5% 98%  
216 1.0% 97%  
217 2% 96%  
218 3% 94%  
219 4% 91%  
220 5% 87%  
221 13% 82%  
222 16% 69%  
223 14% 53% Median
224 14% 40%  
225 9% 26%  
226 8% 17%  
227 3% 9%  
228 3% 6%  
229 2% 3%  
230 0.8% 1.1%  
231 0.2% 0.3%  
232 0.1% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100% Majority
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.3% 99.8%  
183 0.5% 99.4%  
184 0.5% 98.9%  
185 0.4% 98%  
186 0.8% 98%  
187 1.4% 97%  
188 2% 96%  
189 6% 93%  
190 5% 88%  
191 8% 82%  
192 10% 75%  
193 14% 65%  
194 11% 50% Median
195 13% 39%  
196 12% 26%  
197 6% 14%  
198 3% 8%  
199 3% 5%  
200 0.9% 2%  
201 0.7% 0.9%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0.1% 100%  
172 0.3% 99.8%  
173 0.4% 99.6%  
174 1.0% 99.1%  
175 2% 98% Majority
176 4% 96%  
177 9% 92%  
178 6% 84%  
179 16% 78%  
180 12% 62% Median
181 13% 50%  
182 11% 37%  
183 5% 26%  
184 9% 20%  
185 5% 11%  
186 2% 6%  
187 1.5% 4%  
188 0.7% 2%  
189 0.7% 2%  
190 0.2% 1.1%  
191 0.3% 0.9%  
192 0.4% 0.6%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 100%  
157 0.4% 99.8%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.2% 99.1%  
160 0.7% 98.9%  
161 0.7% 98%  
162 1.5% 98%  
163 2% 96%  
164 5% 94%  
165 9% 89%  
166 5% 80%  
167 11% 74%  
168 13% 63% Median
169 12% 50%  
170 16% 38%  
171 6% 22%  
172 9% 16%  
173 4% 8%  
174 2% 4%  
175 1.0% 2% Majority
176 0.4% 0.9%  
177 0.3% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.3% 99.8%  
144 0.7% 99.5% Last Result
145 2% 98.8%  
146 2% 97%  
147 4% 95%  
148 7% 91%  
149 11% 83%  
150 13% 72%  
151 13% 59% Median
152 13% 46%  
153 10% 33%  
154 8% 23%  
155 7% 15%  
156 2% 8%  
157 2% 6%  
158 0.7% 4%  
159 0.6% 3%  
160 0.9% 2%  
161 0.5% 1.4%  
162 0.2% 0.9%  
163 0.5% 0.7%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.3% 99.8%  
142 0.3% 99.4%  
143 0.5% 99.1%  
144 1.1% 98.6%  
145 2% 97%  
146 3% 95%  
147 4% 92%  
148 8% 88%  
149 11% 80%  
150 13% 69%  
151 13% 56% Median
152 13% 42%  
153 10% 30%  
154 8% 20%  
155 7% 12%  
156 2% 5%  
157 2% 3%  
158 0.5% 0.9%  
159 0.3% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.4% 99.8%  
138 0.7% 99.4%  
139 0.5% 98.7%  
140 0.7% 98%  
141 2% 98%  
142 3% 95%  
143 5% 92%  
144 6% 87%  
145 9% 81%  
146 13% 72%  
147 15% 59% Median
148 12% 44%  
149 12% 31%  
150 6% 19%  
151 6% 13%  
152 4% 7%  
153 2% 3%  
154 0.6% 1.3%  
155 0.5% 0.7%  
156 0.2% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.4% 99.8%  
138 0.7% 99.4%  
139 1.2% 98.7%  
140 2% 97%  
141 4% 95%  
142 8% 91%  
143 10% 83%  
144 16% 73%  
145 14% 57% Median
146 11% 44%  
147 12% 33%  
148 5% 21%  
149 7% 16%  
150 3% 9%  
151 2% 6%  
152 1.4% 4%  
153 0.7% 3%  
154 0.7% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.5%  
156 0.2% 1.1%  
157 0.2% 0.8%  
158 0.5% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.7% 99.5%  
122 2% 98.8%  
123 1.3% 97%  
124 5% 96%  
125 6% 91%  
126 11% 84%  
127 8% 73%  
128 15% 65% Median
129 17% 50%  
130 11% 34%  
131 7% 23%  
132 9% 16%  
133 4% 8%  
134 2% 4%  
135 0.9% 2%  
136 0.8% 1.1%  
137 0.2% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.7% 99.5%  
122 2% 98.8%  
123 1.3% 97% Last Result
124 5% 96%  
125 6% 91%  
126 11% 84%  
127 8% 73%  
128 15% 65% Median
129 17% 50%  
130 11% 34%  
131 7% 23%  
132 9% 16%  
133 4% 7%  
134 2% 4%  
135 0.9% 2%  
136 0.8% 1.0%  
137 0.2% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.2% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.6% 99.5%  
110 3% 98.8%  
111 2% 96%  
112 3% 94%  
113 12% 91%  
114 11% 79%  
115 8% 68%  
116 23% 60% Last Result, Median
117 8% 37%  
118 9% 29%  
119 12% 20%  
120 2% 9%  
121 2% 7%  
122 1.1% 5%  
123 0.5% 3%  
124 0.4% 3%  
125 0.2% 2%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.5%  
128 0.3% 1.0%  
129 0.5% 0.6%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 1.0% 99.6%  
101 0.9% 98.6%  
102 3% 98%  
103 6% 95%  
104 5% 89%  
105 10% 84%  
106 17% 74%  
107 10% 56% Median
108 15% 46%  
109 12% 31%  
110 8% 19%  
111 6% 11%  
112 3% 6%  
113 2% 3%  
114 0.5% 1.0%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.2% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 1.1% 99.6%  
101 0.9% 98.6% Last Result
102 3% 98%  
103 6% 95%  
104 5% 89%  
105 10% 84%  
106 17% 74%  
107 10% 56% Median
108 15% 46%  
109 12% 31%  
110 8% 19%  
111 6% 11%  
112 3% 6%  
113 2% 3%  
114 0.5% 0.9%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.2% 0.2%  
117 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations