Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 3–23 August 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 28.3% | 27.4–29.3% | 27.1–29.5% | 26.9–29.8% | 26.5–30.2% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.2% | 20.3–22.1% | 20.1–22.3% | 19.9–22.5% | 19.5–22.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.4% | 18.6–20.3% | 18.4–20.5% | 18.2–20.7% | 17.8–21.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.7–9.9% | 8.6–10.1% | 8.4–10.3% | 8.1–10.6% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1–8.2% | 6.9–8.4% | 6.8–8.5% | 6.6–8.8% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3–6.3% | 5.2–6.5% | 5.1–6.6% | 4.9–6.9% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.4–4.3% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.1–4.7% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.6–3.3% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 106 | 102–111 | 100–112 | 99–113 | 98–114 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 80 | 76–83 | 74–84 | 73–85 | 72–87 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 73 | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–79 | 65–80 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 35 | 33–38 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 28 | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 100 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 101 | 3% | 94% | |
| 102 | 6% | 92% | |
| 103 | 8% | 86% | |
| 104 | 7% | 77% | |
| 105 | 11% | 70% | |
| 106 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 107 | 10% | 48% | |
| 108 | 11% | 38% | |
| 109 | 6% | 26% | |
| 110 | 10% | 20% | |
| 111 | 4% | 10% | |
| 112 | 4% | 7% | |
| 113 | 2% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 5% | 95% | |
| 76 | 5% | 90% | |
| 77 | 9% | 85% | |
| 78 | 14% | 76% | |
| 79 | 11% | 61% | |
| 80 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 81 | 12% | 37% | |
| 82 | 13% | 25% | |
| 83 | 5% | 12% | |
| 84 | 3% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 4% | 97% | |
| 69 | 6% | 93% | |
| 70 | 8% | 88% | |
| 71 | 10% | 80% | |
| 72 | 15% | 70% | |
| 73 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 44% | |
| 75 | 9% | 31% | |
| 76 | 10% | 22% | |
| 77 | 5% | 12% | |
| 78 | 4% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 5% | 96% | |
| 33 | 12% | 91% | |
| 34 | 17% | 79% | |
| 35 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 43% | |
| 37 | 11% | 22% | |
| 38 | 9% | 12% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 9% | 97% | |
| 27 | 14% | 88% | |
| 28 | 25% | 74% | Median |
| 29 | 20% | 50% | |
| 30 | 20% | 30% | |
| 31 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 32 | 5% | 7% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 20 | 12% | 95% | |
| 21 | 27% | 84% | |
| 22 | 22% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 20% | 34% | |
| 24 | 9% | 14% | |
| 25 | 4% | 5% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 31% | |
| 2 | 0% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0% | 31% | |
| 4 | 0% | 31% | |
| 5 | 0% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0% | 31% | |
| 7 | 0% | 31% | |
| 8 | 0% | 31% | |
| 9 | 0% | 31% | |
| 10 | 0% | 31% | |
| 11 | 0% | 31% | |
| 12 | 0% | 31% | |
| 13 | 0% | 31% | |
| 14 | 0% | 31% | |
| 15 | 22% | 31% | |
| 16 | 7% | 9% | Last Result |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 216 | 100% | 207–220 | 205–221 | 204–223 | 202–224 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 187 | 99.0% | 179–191 | 177–192 | 176–194 | 174–196 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 174 | 44% | 169–181 | 168–183 | 167–184 | 165–186 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 175 | 56% | 168–180 | 166–181 | 165–182 | 163–184 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 153 | 0% | 146–158 | 144–159 | 144–160 | 142–162 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 145 | 0% | 140–154 | 139–155 | 138–156 | 136–159 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 138 | 0% | 134–147 | 132–149 | 131–150 | 129–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 142 | 0% | 136–147 | 135–148 | 133–148 | 131–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 130 | 0% | 125–134 | 123–136 | 122–137 | 120–139 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 130 | 0% | 125–134 | 123–136 | 122–137 | 120–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 110 | 0% | 105–120 | 104–121 | 102–122 | 101–124 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 108 | 0% | 104–112 | 102–113 | 101–115 | 99–117 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 108 | 0% | 104–112 | 102–113 | 101–115 | 99–116 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 204 | 1.4% | 98.5% | |
| 205 | 3% | 97% | |
| 206 | 4% | 95% | |
| 207 | 5% | 91% | |
| 208 | 3% | 86% | |
| 209 | 6% | 83% | |
| 210 | 2% | 77% | |
| 211 | 4% | 74% | |
| 212 | 7% | 71% | |
| 213 | 3% | 64% | |
| 214 | 4% | 61% | Median |
| 215 | 5% | 57% | |
| 216 | 11% | 52% | |
| 217 | 12% | 41% | |
| 218 | 9% | 29% | |
| 219 | 7% | 20% | |
| 220 | 7% | 14% | |
| 221 | 2% | 7% | |
| 222 | 2% | 4% | |
| 223 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 224 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 177 | 3% | 97% | |
| 178 | 3% | 94% | |
| 179 | 3% | 91% | |
| 180 | 5% | 88% | |
| 181 | 5% | 82% | |
| 182 | 3% | 78% | |
| 183 | 6% | 75% | |
| 184 | 6% | 69% | |
| 185 | 5% | 63% | |
| 186 | 6% | 58% | Median |
| 187 | 12% | 52% | |
| 188 | 9% | 40% | |
| 189 | 11% | 32% | |
| 190 | 8% | 20% | |
| 191 | 5% | 12% | |
| 192 | 3% | 8% | |
| 193 | 2% | 5% | |
| 194 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 168 | 3% | 95% | |
| 169 | 4% | 92% | Median |
| 170 | 7% | 89% | |
| 171 | 9% | 81% | |
| 172 | 7% | 73% | |
| 173 | 10% | 66% | |
| 174 | 12% | 56% | |
| 175 | 4% | 44% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 40% | |
| 177 | 6% | 34% | |
| 178 | 4% | 28% | |
| 179 | 7% | 24% | |
| 180 | 5% | 18% | |
| 181 | 3% | 13% | |
| 182 | 2% | 10% | |
| 183 | 4% | 8% | |
| 184 | 2% | 4% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 165 | 2% | 98% | |
| 166 | 4% | 96% | |
| 167 | 2% | 92% | |
| 168 | 3% | 90% | |
| 169 | 5% | 87% | |
| 170 | 7% | 82% | |
| 171 | 4% | 76% | |
| 172 | 6% | 72% | |
| 173 | 6% | 66% | |
| 174 | 4% | 60% | |
| 175 | 12% | 56% | Median, Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 44% | |
| 177 | 7% | 34% | |
| 178 | 9% | 27% | |
| 179 | 7% | 19% | |
| 180 | 4% | 11% | |
| 181 | 3% | 8% | |
| 182 | 3% | 5% | |
| 183 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 144 | 3% | 98% | |
| 145 | 3% | 95% | |
| 146 | 5% | 92% | |
| 147 | 3% | 88% | |
| 148 | 3% | 85% | |
| 149 | 8% | 82% | |
| 150 | 4% | 74% | |
| 151 | 8% | 70% | |
| 152 | 8% | 61% | |
| 153 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 154 | 8% | 44% | |
| 155 | 15% | 36% | |
| 156 | 5% | 21% | |
| 157 | 4% | 17% | |
| 158 | 7% | 13% | |
| 159 | 3% | 6% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 2% | 98% | |
| 139 | 3% | 97% | |
| 140 | 6% | 93% | |
| 141 | 5% | 87% | Median |
| 142 | 9% | 82% | |
| 143 | 8% | 73% | |
| 144 | 9% | 65% | Last Result |
| 145 | 9% | 56% | |
| 146 | 5% | 46% | |
| 147 | 5% | 41% | |
| 148 | 6% | 37% | |
| 149 | 3% | 31% | |
| 150 | 3% | 28% | |
| 151 | 6% | 24% | |
| 152 | 4% | 18% | |
| 153 | 3% | 14% | |
| 154 | 4% | 11% | |
| 155 | 3% | 7% | |
| 156 | 2% | 4% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 131 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 132 | 4% | 97% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 134 | 6% | 92% | Median |
| 135 | 12% | 85% | |
| 136 | 4% | 73% | |
| 137 | 12% | 70% | |
| 138 | 11% | 57% | |
| 139 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 140 | 7% | 45% | |
| 141 | 5% | 38% | |
| 142 | 1.4% | 32% | |
| 143 | 4% | 31% | |
| 144 | 5% | 27% | |
| 145 | 2% | 22% | |
| 146 | 6% | 20% | |
| 147 | 6% | 14% | |
| 148 | 2% | 8% | |
| 149 | 3% | 7% | |
| 150 | 2% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 2% | 97% | |
| 135 | 4% | 95% | |
| 136 | 7% | 91% | |
| 137 | 4% | 84% | |
| 138 | 4% | 80% | |
| 139 | 8% | 76% | |
| 140 | 9% | 68% | |
| 141 | 6% | 59% | Median |
| 142 | 10% | 53% | |
| 143 | 9% | 43% | |
| 144 | 9% | 34% | |
| 145 | 9% | 25% | |
| 146 | 5% | 15% | |
| 147 | 4% | 11% | |
| 148 | 5% | 7% | |
| 149 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 123 | 3% | 97% | |
| 124 | 4% | 94% | |
| 125 | 3% | 90% | |
| 126 | 6% | 87% | |
| 127 | 9% | 81% | |
| 128 | 9% | 72% | |
| 129 | 10% | 62% | |
| 130 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 131 | 10% | 46% | |
| 132 | 8% | 36% | |
| 133 | 10% | 28% | |
| 134 | 9% | 19% | |
| 135 | 3% | 10% | |
| 136 | 3% | 7% | |
| 137 | 2% | 4% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 123 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 124 | 4% | 94% | |
| 125 | 3% | 90% | |
| 126 | 6% | 87% | |
| 127 | 9% | 81% | |
| 128 | 9% | 72% | |
| 129 | 10% | 62% | |
| 130 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 131 | 10% | 46% | |
| 132 | 8% | 36% | |
| 133 | 10% | 28% | |
| 134 | 9% | 19% | |
| 135 | 3% | 10% | |
| 136 | 3% | 7% | |
| 137 | 2% | 4% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 103 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 104 | 4% | 96% | |
| 105 | 7% | 92% | |
| 106 | 9% | 85% | Median |
| 107 | 9% | 76% | |
| 108 | 11% | 67% | |
| 109 | 6% | 57% | |
| 110 | 10% | 51% | |
| 111 | 4% | 41% | |
| 112 | 4% | 38% | |
| 113 | 2% | 34% | |
| 114 | 2% | 32% | |
| 115 | 2% | 29% | |
| 116 | 2% | 27% | Last Result |
| 117 | 4% | 25% | |
| 118 | 7% | 21% | |
| 119 | 4% | 14% | |
| 120 | 3% | 10% | |
| 121 | 3% | 7% | |
| 122 | 2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 102 | 4% | 97% | |
| 103 | 3% | 93% | |
| 104 | 8% | 90% | |
| 105 | 5% | 83% | |
| 106 | 11% | 77% | |
| 107 | 12% | 66% | |
| 108 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 109 | 7% | 45% | |
| 110 | 14% | 38% | |
| 111 | 8% | 24% | |
| 112 | 8% | 16% | |
| 113 | 4% | 8% | |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 102 | 4% | 97% | |
| 103 | 3% | 93% | |
| 104 | 8% | 90% | |
| 105 | 5% | 83% | |
| 106 | 11% | 77% | |
| 107 | 12% | 66% | |
| 108 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 109 | 7% | 45% | |
| 110 | 14% | 38% | |
| 111 | 8% | 24% | |
| 112 | 8% | 16% | |
| 113 | 4% | 8% | |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 3–23 August 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 3804
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.20%