Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 24 August–13 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.0% | 26.0–28.0% | 25.7–28.3% | 25.5–28.6% | 25.0–29.1% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.2% | 20.3–22.2% | 20.0–22.4% | 19.8–22.7% | 19.3–23.1% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.6% | 18.7–20.5% | 18.4–20.8% | 18.2–21.0% | 17.8–21.5% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.8–10.1% | 8.6–10.3% | 8.4–10.5% | 8.1–10.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.2–8.4% | 7.0–8.6% | 6.9–8.8% | 6.6–9.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2–6.3% | 5.1–6.4% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9–4.8% | 3.7–5.0% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.4–5.3% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 99 | 96–104 | 95–106 | 93–108 | 92–109 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 78 | 74–82 | 73–83 | 73–85 | 71–87 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 72 | 69–76 | 68–78 | 67–78 | 65–81 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 35 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 29 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 94 | 2% | 97% | |
| 95 | 4% | 96% | |
| 96 | 8% | 92% | |
| 97 | 12% | 83% | |
| 98 | 9% | 71% | |
| 99 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 100 | 11% | 49% | Last Result |
| 101 | 12% | 38% | |
| 102 | 9% | 27% | |
| 103 | 5% | 18% | |
| 104 | 4% | 13% | |
| 105 | 3% | 9% | |
| 106 | 2% | 6% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 109 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 7% | 95% | |
| 75 | 8% | 88% | |
| 76 | 13% | 81% | |
| 77 | 9% | 68% | |
| 78 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 79 | 19% | 49% | |
| 80 | 9% | 30% | |
| 81 | 6% | 21% | |
| 82 | 6% | 15% | |
| 83 | 4% | 9% | |
| 84 | 2% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 7% | 93% | |
| 70 | 9% | 86% | |
| 71 | 10% | 77% | |
| 72 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 73 | 16% | 48% | |
| 74 | 9% | 32% | |
| 75 | 10% | 23% | |
| 76 | 4% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 8% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 32 | 7% | 95% | |
| 33 | 15% | 88% | |
| 34 | 17% | 73% | |
| 35 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 36 | 16% | 36% | |
| 37 | 11% | 20% | |
| 38 | 5% | 10% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 6% | 96% | |
| 27 | 9% | 90% | |
| 28 | 26% | 81% | |
| 29 | 26% | 56% | Median |
| 30 | 13% | 30% | |
| 31 | 8% | 16% | Last Result |
| 32 | 6% | 9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 9% | 96% | |
| 20 | 15% | 86% | |
| 21 | 27% | 71% | Median |
| 22 | 22% | 44% | Last Result |
| 23 | 13% | 22% | |
| 24 | 7% | 9% | |
| 25 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 83% | |
| 2 | 0% | 83% | |
| 3 | 0% | 83% | |
| 4 | 0% | 83% | |
| 5 | 0% | 83% | |
| 6 | 0% | 83% | |
| 7 | 0% | 83% | |
| 8 | 0% | 83% | |
| 9 | 0% | 83% | |
| 10 | 0% | 83% | |
| 11 | 0% | 83% | |
| 12 | 0% | 83% | |
| 13 | 0% | 83% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 15 | 22% | 83% | |
| 16 | 27% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 21% | 33% | |
| 18 | 9% | 12% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 206 | 100% | 201–214 | 200–217 | 199–219 | 196–221 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 177 | 80% | 173–185 | 171–188 | 170–190 | 168–191 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 177 | 77% | 170–183 | 168–184 | 167–184 | 163–187 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 172 | 23% | 166–179 | 165–181 | 165–182 | 162–186 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 151 | 0% | 146–157 | 144–159 | 144–161 | 141–163 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 149 | 0% | 141–154 | 138–155 | 137–156 | 133–158 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 143 | 0% | 134–148 | 132–149 | 130–150 | 128–154 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 134 | 0% | 130–140 | 129–142 | 128–144 | 125–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 128 | 0% | 123–134 | 122–136 | 122–137 | 120–141 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 128 | 0% | 123–134 | 122–136 | 121–136 | 119–140 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 114 | 0% | 104–119 | 102–120 | 100–121 | 98–123 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 107 | 0% | 103–112 | 102–114 | 101–115 | 99–119 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 107 | 0% | 102–112 | 102–113 | 101–115 | 99–118 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 198 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 199 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 200 | 4% | 97% | |
| 201 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 202 | 6% | 89% | |
| 203 | 6% | 83% | |
| 204 | 18% | 77% | |
| 205 | 6% | 58% | |
| 206 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 207 | 13% | 45% | |
| 208 | 5% | 32% | |
| 209 | 3% | 27% | |
| 210 | 5% | 24% | |
| 211 | 3% | 19% | |
| 212 | 2% | 17% | |
| 213 | 2% | 15% | |
| 214 | 5% | 13% | |
| 215 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 216 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 217 | 2% | 6% | |
| 218 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 220 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 221 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 97% | |
| 172 | 4% | 95% | |
| 173 | 3% | 90% | |
| 174 | 7% | 87% | |
| 175 | 12% | 80% | Majority |
| 176 | 14% | 68% | |
| 177 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 178 | 8% | 46% | |
| 179 | 9% | 38% | |
| 180 | 4% | 29% | |
| 181 | 4% | 24% | |
| 182 | 4% | 20% | |
| 183 | 2% | 16% | |
| 184 | 4% | 14% | |
| 185 | 2% | 10% | |
| 186 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 187 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 188 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 190 | 2% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 167 | 2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 3% | 96% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 170 | 2% | 92% | |
| 171 | 2% | 90% | |
| 172 | 2% | 87% | |
| 173 | 4% | 85% | |
| 174 | 5% | 82% | |
| 175 | 4% | 77% | Majority |
| 176 | 18% | 73% | |
| 177 | 7% | 55% | |
| 178 | 10% | 48% | |
| 179 | 9% | 38% | Median |
| 180 | 7% | 29% | |
| 181 | 6% | 22% | |
| 182 | 4% | 16% | |
| 183 | 6% | 11% | |
| 184 | 3% | 5% | |
| 185 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 164 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 165 | 3% | 98% | |
| 166 | 6% | 95% | |
| 167 | 4% | 89% | |
| 168 | 6% | 84% | |
| 169 | 7% | 78% | |
| 170 | 9% | 71% | |
| 171 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 172 | 7% | 52% | |
| 173 | 18% | 45% | |
| 174 | 4% | 27% | |
| 175 | 5% | 23% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 18% | |
| 177 | 2% | 15% | |
| 178 | 2% | 13% | |
| 179 | 2% | 10% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 181 | 3% | 7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 4% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 144 | 3% | 98% | |
| 145 | 4% | 94% | |
| 146 | 6% | 90% | |
| 147 | 7% | 84% | |
| 148 | 12% | 77% | |
| 149 | 7% | 65% | |
| 150 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 151 | 13% | 52% | |
| 152 | 12% | 40% | |
| 153 | 6% | 27% | |
| 154 | 4% | 22% | |
| 155 | 3% | 17% | |
| 156 | 4% | 14% | |
| 157 | 4% | 10% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 160 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 137 | 2% | 98% | |
| 138 | 4% | 96% | |
| 139 | 2% | 93% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 141 | 2% | 90% | |
| 142 | 2% | 88% | |
| 143 | 2% | 86% | |
| 144 | 4% | 84% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 80% | |
| 146 | 4% | 77% | |
| 147 | 8% | 73% | |
| 148 | 14% | 65% | |
| 149 | 10% | 51% | |
| 150 | 8% | 40% | Median |
| 151 | 11% | 32% | |
| 152 | 4% | 22% | |
| 153 | 8% | 18% | |
| 154 | 4% | 11% | |
| 155 | 4% | 6% | |
| 156 | 2% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 129 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 132 | 4% | 97% | |
| 133 | 2% | 93% | |
| 134 | 2% | 91% | |
| 135 | 2% | 89% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 137 | 3% | 86% | |
| 138 | 3% | 84% | |
| 139 | 3% | 81% | |
| 140 | 2% | 78% | |
| 141 | 11% | 75% | |
| 142 | 12% | 64% | |
| 143 | 7% | 52% | |
| 144 | 14% | 45% | Median |
| 145 | 7% | 31% | |
| 146 | 6% | 24% | |
| 147 | 6% | 18% | |
| 148 | 7% | 12% | |
| 149 | 3% | 6% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 95% | |
| 130 | 9% | 93% | |
| 131 | 4% | 84% | |
| 132 | 12% | 80% | |
| 133 | 14% | 69% | |
| 134 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 135 | 7% | 42% | |
| 136 | 8% | 36% | |
| 137 | 4% | 27% | |
| 138 | 7% | 23% | |
| 139 | 6% | 16% | |
| 140 | 2% | 10% | |
| 141 | 2% | 8% | |
| 142 | 2% | 6% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 144 | 2% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 121 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 122 | 5% | 98% | |
| 123 | 3% | 93% | |
| 124 | 4% | 89% | |
| 125 | 6% | 85% | |
| 126 | 8% | 78% | |
| 127 | 10% | 70% | |
| 128 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 129 | 14% | 46% | |
| 130 | 6% | 32% | |
| 131 | 4% | 26% | |
| 132 | 6% | 21% | |
| 133 | 4% | 16% | |
| 134 | 3% | 12% | |
| 135 | 3% | 9% | |
| 136 | 3% | 6% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 122 | 5% | 97% | |
| 123 | 4% | 92% | Last Result |
| 124 | 5% | 89% | |
| 125 | 7% | 84% | |
| 126 | 8% | 78% | |
| 127 | 10% | 69% | |
| 128 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 129 | 14% | 45% | |
| 130 | 6% | 31% | |
| 131 | 4% | 25% | |
| 132 | 6% | 20% | |
| 133 | 4% | 15% | |
| 134 | 3% | 11% | |
| 135 | 3% | 8% | |
| 136 | 3% | 5% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 101 | 2% | 97% | |
| 102 | 3% | 96% | |
| 103 | 2% | 93% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 105 | 2% | 90% | |
| 106 | 2% | 88% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 109 | 3% | 83% | |
| 110 | 2% | 81% | |
| 111 | 3% | 78% | |
| 112 | 5% | 76% | |
| 113 | 14% | 71% | |
| 114 | 8% | 57% | |
| 115 | 15% | 49% | Median |
| 116 | 10% | 35% | Last Result |
| 117 | 6% | 25% | |
| 118 | 8% | 19% | |
| 119 | 5% | 11% | |
| 120 | 4% | 6% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 6% | 96% | |
| 103 | 7% | 90% | |
| 104 | 5% | 83% | |
| 105 | 12% | 78% | |
| 106 | 10% | 66% | |
| 107 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 108 | 11% | 41% | |
| 109 | 7% | 30% | |
| 110 | 5% | 24% | |
| 111 | 5% | 19% | |
| 112 | 6% | 13% | |
| 113 | 2% | 8% | |
| 114 | 2% | 5% | |
| 115 | 2% | 4% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 102 | 6% | 96% | |
| 103 | 7% | 90% | |
| 104 | 5% | 83% | |
| 105 | 12% | 78% | |
| 106 | 10% | 65% | |
| 107 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 108 | 11% | 40% | |
| 109 | 7% | 29% | |
| 110 | 5% | 23% | |
| 111 | 5% | 18% | |
| 112 | 6% | 12% | |
| 113 | 2% | 7% | |
| 114 | 2% | 5% | |
| 115 | 2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 24 August–13 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 3082
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.70%