Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 12 October–8 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.4% | 25.5–27.3% | 25.2–27.6% | 25.0–27.8% | 24.6–28.3% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 22.0% | 21.1–22.9% | 20.9–23.1% | 20.7–23.4% | 20.3–23.8% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.4% | 18.6–20.3% | 18.4–20.5% | 18.2–20.7% | 17.8–21.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.0–11.3% | 9.8–11.5% | 9.6–11.6% | 9.4–11.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.0–9.2% | 7.9–9.4% | 7.7–9.5% | 7.5–9.8% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.6–5.5% | 4.4–5.6% | 4.3–5.7% | 4.1–6.0% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5–4.4% | 3.4–4.5% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.2–4.8% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.4–3.1% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 99 | 94–103 | 92–104 | 92–105 | 90–107 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 82 | 78–86 | 77–87 | 76–89 | 74–89 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 72 | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 65–79 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 40 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 35–45 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 29–36 | 27–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–18 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 92 | 4% | 98% | |
| 93 | 3% | 94% | |
| 94 | 5% | 91% | |
| 95 | 8% | 87% | |
| 96 | 7% | 79% | |
| 97 | 9% | 73% | |
| 98 | 14% | 64% | |
| 99 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 100 | 11% | 41% | Last Result |
| 101 | 13% | 30% | |
| 102 | 6% | 17% | |
| 103 | 4% | 11% | |
| 104 | 3% | 7% | |
| 105 | 2% | 4% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98% | |
| 77 | 4% | 96% | |
| 78 | 6% | 92% | |
| 79 | 10% | 86% | |
| 80 | 10% | 76% | |
| 81 | 13% | 66% | |
| 82 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 83 | 11% | 45% | |
| 84 | 14% | 34% | |
| 85 | 10% | 20% | |
| 86 | 5% | 11% | |
| 87 | 2% | 6% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 7% | 92% | |
| 70 | 10% | 85% | |
| 71 | 10% | 75% | |
| 72 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 73 | 11% | 50% | |
| 74 | 16% | 39% | |
| 75 | 5% | 23% | |
| 76 | 13% | 18% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 5% | 97% | |
| 37 | 9% | 92% | |
| 38 | 14% | 83% | |
| 39 | 14% | 69% | |
| 40 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 41 | 19% | 37% | |
| 42 | 10% | 17% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 7% | 98% | |
| 30 | 11% | 91% | |
| 31 | 14% | 80% | Last Result |
| 32 | 28% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 18% | 37% | |
| 34 | 9% | 19% | |
| 35 | 6% | 10% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 16% | 95% | |
| 18 | 25% | 79% | |
| 19 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 19% | 29% | |
| 21 | 8% | 10% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 37% | |
| 4 | 0% | 37% | |
| 5 | 0% | 37% | |
| 6 | 0% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0% | 37% | |
| 8 | 0% | 37% | |
| 9 | 0% | 37% | |
| 10 | 0% | 37% | |
| 11 | 0% | 37% | |
| 12 | 0% | 37% | |
| 13 | 0% | 37% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 37% | |
| 15 | 21% | 37% | |
| 16 | 12% | 15% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 214 | 100% | 205–219 | 203–220 | 202–221 | 200–223 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 181 | 83% | 174–186 | 172–188 | 171–188 | 169–190 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 175 | 55% | 170–183 | 169–184 | 168–185 | 166–187 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 174 | 45% | 166–179 | 165–180 | 164–181 | 162–183 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 155 | 0% | 148–160 | 147–161 | 146–162 | 144–164 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 142 | 0% | 138–152 | 136–153 | 135–154 | 133–156 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 135 | 0% | 130–144 | 129–145 | 128–146 | 126–149 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 138 | 0% | 132–143 | 130–145 | 130–145 | 128–148 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 133 | 0% | 127–138 | 126–139 | 125–139 | 123–143 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 133 | 0% | 127–138 | 126–139 | 125–139 | 123–143 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 114 | 0% | 109–118 | 108–120 | 107–121 | 105–123 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 114 | 0% | 109–118 | 108–120 | 107–121 | 105–123 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 102 | 0% | 98–112 | 96–114 | 96–115 | 94–117 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 198 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 201 | 1.1% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 202 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 203 | 3% | 97% | |
| 204 | 4% | 95% | |
| 205 | 5% | 90% | |
| 206 | 5% | 86% | |
| 207 | 5% | 80% | |
| 208 | 5% | 76% | |
| 209 | 3% | 70% | |
| 210 | 4% | 67% | |
| 211 | 3% | 63% | |
| 212 | 3% | 61% | |
| 213 | 3% | 57% | Median |
| 214 | 11% | 54% | |
| 215 | 8% | 43% | |
| 216 | 9% | 35% | |
| 217 | 6% | 26% | |
| 218 | 10% | 20% | |
| 219 | 4% | 10% | |
| 220 | 3% | 7% | |
| 221 | 2% | 3% | |
| 222 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 98% | |
| 172 | 3% | 97% | |
| 173 | 2% | 94% | |
| 174 | 9% | 91% | |
| 175 | 3% | 83% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 80% | |
| 177 | 5% | 74% | |
| 178 | 5% | 69% | |
| 179 | 4% | 64% | |
| 180 | 5% | 60% | |
| 181 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 182 | 10% | 48% | |
| 183 | 6% | 38% | |
| 184 | 9% | 32% | |
| 185 | 7% | 23% | |
| 186 | 8% | 16% | |
| 187 | 2% | 8% | |
| 188 | 4% | 6% | |
| 189 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 168 | 3% | 98% | |
| 169 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 170 | 7% | 94% | |
| 171 | 9% | 87% | Median |
| 172 | 6% | 78% | |
| 173 | 4% | 72% | |
| 174 | 13% | 68% | |
| 175 | 9% | 55% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 46% | |
| 177 | 6% | 42% | |
| 178 | 7% | 36% | |
| 179 | 2% | 29% | |
| 180 | 6% | 27% | |
| 181 | 6% | 21% | |
| 182 | 3% | 14% | |
| 183 | 1.5% | 11% | |
| 184 | 6% | 10% | |
| 185 | 2% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 165 | 6% | 97% | |
| 166 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 167 | 3% | 89% | |
| 168 | 6% | 86% | |
| 169 | 6% | 79% | |
| 170 | 2% | 73% | |
| 171 | 7% | 71% | |
| 172 | 6% | 64% | |
| 173 | 4% | 58% | Median |
| 174 | 9% | 54% | |
| 175 | 13% | 45% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 32% | |
| 177 | 6% | 28% | |
| 178 | 9% | 22% | |
| 179 | 7% | 13% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 181 | 3% | 5% | |
| 182 | 2% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 145 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 146 | 3% | 98% | |
| 147 | 2% | 95% | |
| 148 | 5% | 93% | |
| 149 | 4% | 88% | |
| 150 | 6% | 83% | |
| 151 | 6% | 77% | |
| 152 | 5% | 71% | |
| 153 | 6% | 66% | |
| 154 | 5% | 59% | Median |
| 155 | 9% | 54% | |
| 156 | 8% | 46% | |
| 157 | 11% | 38% | |
| 158 | 7% | 27% | |
| 159 | 5% | 20% | |
| 160 | 8% | 15% | |
| 161 | 3% | 7% | |
| 162 | 2% | 4% | |
| 163 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 136 | 3% | 97% | |
| 137 | 2% | 94% | |
| 138 | 8% | 92% | |
| 139 | 9% | 83% | Median |
| 140 | 6% | 75% | |
| 141 | 6% | 69% | |
| 142 | 13% | 63% | |
| 143 | 4% | 50% | |
| 144 | 5% | 46% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 41% | |
| 146 | 4% | 36% | |
| 147 | 3% | 32% | |
| 148 | 5% | 29% | |
| 149 | 5% | 24% | |
| 150 | 5% | 19% | |
| 151 | 4% | 14% | |
| 152 | 4% | 10% | |
| 153 | 3% | 6% | |
| 154 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 3% | 96% | |
| 130 | 6% | 93% | |
| 131 | 8% | 87% | Median |
| 132 | 10% | 79% | |
| 133 | 7% | 69% | |
| 134 | 9% | 61% | |
| 135 | 5% | 52% | |
| 136 | 5% | 47% | |
| 137 | 4% | 42% | |
| 138 | 3% | 38% | |
| 139 | 3% | 35% | |
| 140 | 5% | 32% | |
| 141 | 4% | 27% | |
| 142 | 5% | 23% | |
| 143 | 3% | 18% | |
| 144 | 7% | 15% | |
| 145 | 3% | 8% | |
| 146 | 2% | 5% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 130 | 3% | 98% | |
| 131 | 2% | 95% | |
| 132 | 4% | 93% | |
| 133 | 6% | 89% | |
| 134 | 4% | 83% | |
| 135 | 7% | 79% | |
| 136 | 7% | 72% | |
| 137 | 5% | 65% | |
| 138 | 11% | 59% | |
| 139 | 10% | 49% | Median |
| 140 | 7% | 39% | |
| 141 | 6% | 32% | |
| 142 | 13% | 26% | |
| 143 | 4% | 13% | |
| 144 | 4% | 10% | |
| 145 | 4% | 5% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 126 | 4% | 97% | |
| 127 | 4% | 92% | |
| 128 | 6% | 88% | |
| 129 | 6% | 82% | |
| 130 | 6% | 76% | |
| 131 | 7% | 70% | |
| 132 | 6% | 63% | |
| 133 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 134 | 9% | 45% | |
| 135 | 15% | 36% | |
| 136 | 6% | 22% | |
| 137 | 5% | 16% | |
| 138 | 3% | 11% | |
| 139 | 5% | 7% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 126 | 4% | 97% | |
| 127 | 4% | 92% | |
| 128 | 6% | 88% | |
| 129 | 6% | 82% | |
| 130 | 6% | 76% | |
| 131 | 7% | 70% | |
| 132 | 6% | 63% | |
| 133 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 134 | 9% | 45% | |
| 135 | 15% | 36% | |
| 136 | 6% | 22% | |
| 137 | 5% | 16% | |
| 138 | 3% | 11% | |
| 139 | 5% | 7% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 107 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 108 | 4% | 96% | |
| 109 | 5% | 91% | |
| 110 | 6% | 86% | |
| 111 | 7% | 80% | |
| 112 | 7% | 73% | |
| 113 | 8% | 66% | |
| 114 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 115 | 8% | 46% | |
| 116 | 14% | 38% | |
| 117 | 10% | 25% | |
| 118 | 5% | 15% | |
| 119 | 3% | 10% | |
| 120 | 3% | 6% | |
| 121 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 107 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 108 | 4% | 96% | |
| 109 | 5% | 91% | |
| 110 | 6% | 86% | |
| 111 | 7% | 80% | |
| 112 | 7% | 73% | |
| 113 | 8% | 66% | |
| 114 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 115 | 8% | 46% | |
| 116 | 14% | 38% | |
| 117 | 10% | 25% | |
| 118 | 5% | 15% | |
| 119 | 3% | 10% | |
| 120 | 3% | 6% | |
| 121 | 2% | 4% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 96 | 3% | 98% | |
| 97 | 3% | 95% | |
| 98 | 10% | 92% | |
| 99 | 6% | 82% | Median |
| 100 | 10% | 76% | |
| 101 | 12% | 66% | |
| 102 | 6% | 54% | |
| 103 | 4% | 48% | |
| 104 | 3% | 44% | |
| 105 | 2% | 40% | |
| 106 | 2% | 38% | |
| 107 | 2% | 36% | |
| 108 | 4% | 34% | |
| 109 | 2% | 30% | |
| 110 | 5% | 28% | |
| 111 | 5% | 22% | |
| 112 | 7% | 17% | |
| 113 | 4% | 10% | |
| 114 | 2% | 6% | |
| 115 | 2% | 4% | |
| 116 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 12 October–8 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 3783
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.53%