Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 9 November–6 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 28.0% | 27.1–29.0% | 26.8–29.2% | 26.6–29.5% | 26.2–29.9% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.7% | 20.9–22.6% | 20.6–22.8% | 20.4–23.0% | 20.0–23.5% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.5% | 17.7–19.3% | 17.5–19.6% | 17.3–19.8% | 16.9–20.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.1–10.3% | 8.9–10.5% | 8.8–10.7% | 8.5–11.0% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7–8.8% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.4–9.1% | 7.1–9.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0–5.9% | 4.8–6.1% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.5–6.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7–4.5% | 3.6–4.7% | 3.5–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.4–3.1% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 104 | 100–108 | 99–109 | 98–110 | 96–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 80 | 76–84 | 76–86 | 75–86 | 74–89 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 68 | 66–72 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 62–76 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 36 | 34–39 | 33–39 | 33–40 | 31–41 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–18 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 98 | 2% | 98% | |
| 99 | 4% | 95% | |
| 100 | 9% | 92% | Last Result |
| 101 | 13% | 83% | |
| 102 | 10% | 70% | |
| 103 | 9% | 61% | |
| 104 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 105 | 10% | 42% | |
| 106 | 9% | 31% | |
| 107 | 9% | 22% | |
| 108 | 4% | 13% | |
| 109 | 5% | 9% | |
| 110 | 3% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 76 | 6% | 96% | |
| 77 | 7% | 89% | |
| 78 | 12% | 82% | |
| 79 | 10% | 70% | |
| 80 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 81 | 8% | 42% | |
| 82 | 10% | 34% | |
| 83 | 6% | 24% | |
| 84 | 10% | 19% | |
| 85 | 3% | 9% | |
| 86 | 3% | 6% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 65 | 5% | 96% | |
| 66 | 17% | 91% | |
| 67 | 12% | 74% | |
| 68 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 69 | 18% | 46% | |
| 70 | 7% | 28% | |
| 71 | 6% | 21% | |
| 72 | 9% | 15% | |
| 73 | 3% | 6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 33 | 7% | 98% | |
| 34 | 21% | 91% | |
| 35 | 9% | 70% | |
| 36 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 37 | 22% | 41% | |
| 38 | 6% | 18% | |
| 39 | 9% | 12% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 9% | 96% | |
| 29 | 21% | 87% | |
| 30 | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 31 | 16% | 44% | Last Result |
| 32 | 14% | 28% | |
| 33 | 9% | 14% | |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 11% | 96% | |
| 19 | 15% | 85% | |
| 20 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 21 | 31% | 46% | |
| 22 | 11% | 15% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 36% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 64% | |
| 2 | 0% | 64% | |
| 3 | 0% | 64% | |
| 4 | 0% | 64% | |
| 5 | 0% | 64% | |
| 6 | 0% | 64% | |
| 7 | 0% | 64% | |
| 8 | 0% | 64% | |
| 9 | 0% | 64% | |
| 10 | 0% | 64% | |
| 11 | 0% | 64% | |
| 12 | 0% | 64% | |
| 13 | 0% | 64% | |
| 14 | 0% | 64% | |
| 15 | 33% | 64% | Median |
| 16 | 21% | 31% | Last Result |
| 17 | 8% | 9% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 212 | 100% | 208–223 | 207–224 | 206–225 | 204–227 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 183 | 99.1% | 179–191 | 177–193 | 176–194 | 174–196 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 180 | 84% | 173–186 | 173–187 | 171–188 | 169–190 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 169 | 16% | 163–176 | 162–176 | 161–178 | 159–180 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 151 | 0% | 142–156 | 141–157 | 140–158 | 138–160 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 148 | 0% | 143–155 | 142–156 | 142–157 | 140–160 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 145 | 0% | 137–150 | 135–151 | 134–152 | 132–154 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 140 | 0% | 135–145 | 133–146 | 132–148 | 131–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 130 | 0% | 125–137 | 125–138 | 124–139 | 123–141 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 130 | 0% | 125–137 | 125–138 | 124–139 | 123–141 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 116 | 0% | 105–121 | 104–121 | 103–122 | 101–124 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 110 | 0% | 106–116 | 105–117 | 105–118 | 103–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 110 | 0% | 106–116 | 105–117 | 105–118 | 103–120 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 206 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 207 | 2% | 96% | |
| 208 | 4% | 94% | |
| 209 | 7% | 90% | |
| 210 | 15% | 83% | |
| 211 | 13% | 67% | |
| 212 | 6% | 55% | |
| 213 | 5% | 49% | |
| 214 | 2% | 44% | Median |
| 215 | 4% | 42% | |
| 216 | 2% | 38% | |
| 217 | 2% | 36% | |
| 218 | 2% | 34% | |
| 219 | 2% | 32% | |
| 220 | 4% | 30% | |
| 221 | 11% | 26% | |
| 222 | 4% | 15% | |
| 223 | 4% | 11% | |
| 224 | 5% | 7% | |
| 225 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 226 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 177 | 4% | 97% | |
| 178 | 3% | 93% | |
| 179 | 7% | 90% | |
| 180 | 8% | 83% | |
| 181 | 15% | 75% | |
| 182 | 7% | 60% | |
| 183 | 8% | 53% | |
| 184 | 3% | 45% | Median |
| 185 | 4% | 42% | |
| 186 | 3% | 37% | |
| 187 | 7% | 34% | |
| 188 | 2% | 27% | |
| 189 | 6% | 25% | |
| 190 | 5% | 19% | |
| 191 | 6% | 14% | |
| 192 | 3% | 8% | |
| 193 | 2% | 5% | |
| 194 | 2% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 171 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 172 | 2% | 97% | |
| 173 | 6% | 95% | |
| 174 | 6% | 89% | |
| 175 | 5% | 84% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 79% | |
| 177 | 5% | 76% | |
| 178 | 9% | 71% | |
| 179 | 5% | 62% | |
| 180 | 7% | 57% | |
| 181 | 7% | 50% | |
| 182 | 9% | 42% | |
| 183 | 7% | 33% | |
| 184 | 7% | 27% | |
| 185 | 5% | 20% | Median |
| 186 | 8% | 15% | |
| 187 | 4% | 7% | |
| 188 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 162 | 4% | 97% | |
| 163 | 8% | 93% | |
| 164 | 5% | 85% | |
| 165 | 7% | 80% | |
| 166 | 7% | 73% | |
| 167 | 9% | 67% | |
| 168 | 7% | 58% | Median |
| 169 | 7% | 50% | |
| 170 | 5% | 43% | |
| 171 | 9% | 38% | |
| 172 | 5% | 29% | |
| 173 | 3% | 24% | |
| 174 | 5% | 21% | |
| 175 | 6% | 16% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 11% | |
| 177 | 2% | 5% | |
| 178 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 140 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 141 | 6% | 97% | |
| 142 | 3% | 91% | |
| 143 | 6% | 87% | |
| 144 | 6% | 81% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 75% | |
| 146 | 5% | 72% | |
| 147 | 2% | 67% | |
| 148 | 3% | 65% | |
| 149 | 3% | 62% | |
| 150 | 7% | 58% | |
| 151 | 6% | 51% | |
| 152 | 6% | 45% | |
| 153 | 11% | 39% | |
| 154 | 6% | 27% | |
| 155 | 7% | 22% | Median |
| 156 | 6% | 15% | |
| 157 | 5% | 9% | |
| 158 | 2% | 4% | |
| 159 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 142 | 4% | 98% | |
| 143 | 5% | 94% | |
| 144 | 5% | 89% | |
| 145 | 9% | 84% | |
| 146 | 12% | 75% | |
| 147 | 6% | 63% | |
| 148 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 149 | 7% | 47% | |
| 150 | 8% | 41% | |
| 151 | 6% | 33% | |
| 152 | 6% | 28% | |
| 153 | 4% | 22% | |
| 154 | 5% | 18% | |
| 155 | 4% | 13% | |
| 156 | 5% | 9% | |
| 157 | 2% | 4% | |
| 158 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 134 | 2% | 98% | |
| 135 | 2% | 97% | |
| 136 | 3% | 95% | |
| 137 | 4% | 91% | |
| 138 | 4% | 87% | |
| 139 | 7% | 83% | |
| 140 | 4% | 76% | |
| 141 | 4% | 72% | |
| 142 | 4% | 67% | |
| 143 | 4% | 64% | |
| 144 | 5% | 59% | |
| 145 | 9% | 54% | |
| 146 | 8% | 45% | |
| 147 | 7% | 37% | |
| 148 | 7% | 30% | |
| 149 | 8% | 24% | Median |
| 150 | 6% | 15% | |
| 151 | 4% | 9% | |
| 152 | 2% | 5% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 133 | 2% | 97% | |
| 134 | 4% | 95% | |
| 135 | 6% | 90% | |
| 136 | 7% | 84% | |
| 137 | 7% | 77% | |
| 138 | 12% | 70% | |
| 139 | 8% | 58% | |
| 140 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 141 | 13% | 43% | |
| 142 | 4% | 31% | |
| 143 | 8% | 26% | |
| 144 | 6% | 19% | |
| 145 | 4% | 12% | |
| 146 | 4% | 9% | |
| 147 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 148 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 125 | 6% | 96% | |
| 126 | 4% | 90% | |
| 127 | 9% | 85% | |
| 128 | 9% | 76% | |
| 129 | 8% | 68% | |
| 130 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 131 | 9% | 49% | |
| 132 | 4% | 39% | |
| 133 | 5% | 35% | |
| 134 | 6% | 30% | |
| 135 | 5% | 24% | |
| 136 | 8% | 18% | |
| 137 | 2% | 10% | |
| 138 | 5% | 8% | |
| 139 | 2% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 124 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 125 | 6% | 96% | |
| 126 | 4% | 90% | |
| 127 | 9% | 85% | |
| 128 | 9% | 76% | |
| 129 | 8% | 68% | |
| 130 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 131 | 9% | 49% | |
| 132 | 4% | 39% | |
| 133 | 5% | 35% | |
| 134 | 6% | 30% | |
| 135 | 5% | 24% | |
| 136 | 8% | 18% | |
| 137 | 2% | 10% | |
| 138 | 5% | 8% | |
| 139 | 2% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 104 | 2% | 97% | |
| 105 | 6% | 94% | |
| 106 | 5% | 88% | |
| 107 | 8% | 84% | |
| 108 | 3% | 76% | |
| 109 | 4% | 73% | |
| 110 | 3% | 68% | |
| 111 | 1.5% | 66% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 64% | |
| 113 | 2% | 63% | |
| 114 | 3% | 61% | |
| 115 | 6% | 58% | |
| 116 | 13% | 52% | Last Result |
| 117 | 7% | 39% | |
| 118 | 7% | 32% | |
| 119 | 8% | 25% | Median |
| 120 | 6% | 17% | |
| 121 | 6% | 11% | |
| 122 | 3% | 5% | |
| 123 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 105 | 4% | 98% | |
| 106 | 5% | 94% | |
| 107 | 10% | 89% | |
| 108 | 10% | 79% | |
| 109 | 13% | 68% | |
| 110 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 111 | 7% | 46% | |
| 112 | 6% | 39% | |
| 113 | 6% | 32% | |
| 114 | 5% | 26% | |
| 115 | 6% | 21% | |
| 116 | 8% | 16% | |
| 117 | 3% | 7% | |
| 118 | 2% | 4% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 105 | 4% | 98% | |
| 106 | 5% | 94% | |
| 107 | 10% | 89% | |
| 108 | 10% | 79% | |
| 109 | 13% | 68% | |
| 110 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 111 | 7% | 46% | |
| 112 | 6% | 39% | |
| 113 | 6% | 32% | |
| 114 | 5% | 26% | |
| 115 | 6% | 21% | |
| 116 | 8% | 16% | |
| 117 | 3% | 7% | |
| 118 | 2% | 4% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 9 November–6 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 3813
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.75%