Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 9–21 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.0% | 25.5–28.5% | 25.1–28.9% | 24.8–29.3% | 24.1–30.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 23.0% | 21.7–24.5% | 21.3–24.9% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.3–25.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.0% | 17.7–20.3% | 17.4–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.5–21.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.3–11.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.3–11.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.0–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 99 | 94–106 | 92–108 | 90–110 | 88–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 85 | 79–91 | 78–93 | 76–95 | 74–97 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 69 | 65–75 | 63–77 | 63–78 | 60–81 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 33 | 30–37 | 29–38 | 28–39 | 27–41 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 33 | 30–37 | 29–38 | 28–39 | 27–41 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 0–23 | 0–25 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 90 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 91 | 2% | 97% | |
| 92 | 2% | 96% | |
| 93 | 3% | 94% | |
| 94 | 5% | 90% | |
| 95 | 4% | 85% | |
| 96 | 8% | 81% | |
| 97 | 9% | 72% | |
| 98 | 6% | 63% | |
| 99 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 100 | 6% | 48% | Last Result |
| 101 | 5% | 41% | |
| 102 | 8% | 36% | |
| 103 | 4% | 28% | |
| 104 | 9% | 25% | |
| 105 | 5% | 16% | |
| 106 | 3% | 11% | |
| 107 | 3% | 8% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 97% | |
| 78 | 3% | 96% | |
| 79 | 3% | 93% | |
| 80 | 8% | 90% | |
| 81 | 6% | 82% | |
| 82 | 6% | 76% | |
| 83 | 10% | 69% | |
| 84 | 5% | 60% | |
| 85 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 86 | 6% | 48% | |
| 87 | 11% | 42% | |
| 88 | 9% | 31% | |
| 89 | 6% | 23% | |
| 90 | 3% | 16% | |
| 91 | 5% | 13% | |
| 92 | 2% | 8% | |
| 93 | 2% | 6% | |
| 94 | 2% | 4% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 3% | 95% | |
| 65 | 5% | 92% | |
| 66 | 4% | 87% | |
| 67 | 12% | 82% | |
| 68 | 9% | 70% | |
| 69 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 50% | |
| 71 | 8% | 38% | |
| 72 | 8% | 30% | |
| 73 | 4% | 22% | |
| 74 | 3% | 18% | |
| 75 | 5% | 14% | |
| 76 | 3% | 9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 5% | 97% | |
| 30 | 6% | 93% | |
| 31 | 10% | 87% | Last Result |
| 32 | 10% | 77% | |
| 33 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 34 | 12% | 47% | |
| 35 | 11% | 35% | |
| 36 | 11% | 24% | |
| 37 | 5% | 13% | |
| 38 | 3% | 7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 29 | 3% | 96% | |
| 30 | 8% | 93% | |
| 31 | 10% | 86% | |
| 32 | 13% | 76% | |
| 33 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 34 | 12% | 50% | |
| 35 | 14% | 38% | |
| 36 | 8% | 24% | |
| 37 | 7% | 16% | |
| 38 | 5% | 9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 0% | 97% | |
| 9 | 0% | 97% | |
| 10 | 0% | 97% | |
| 11 | 0% | 97% | |
| 12 | 0% | 97% | |
| 13 | 0% | 97% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 15 | 3% | 97% | |
| 16 | 11% | 94% | |
| 17 | 14% | 83% | |
| 18 | 22% | 69% | Median |
| 19 | 17% | 47% | |
| 20 | 13% | 30% | |
| 21 | 8% | 17% | |
| 22 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 56% | |
| 2 | 0% | 56% | |
| 3 | 0% | 56% | |
| 4 | 0% | 56% | |
| 5 | 0% | 56% | |
| 6 | 0% | 56% | |
| 7 | 0% | 56% | |
| 8 | 0% | 56% | |
| 9 | 0% | 56% | |
| 10 | 0% | 56% | |
| 11 | 0% | 56% | |
| 12 | 0% | 56% | |
| 13 | 0% | 56% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 56% | |
| 15 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 32% | Last Result |
| 17 | 7% | 14% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 218 | 100% | 209–228 | 207–231 | 206–233 | 202–237 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 184 | 94% | 176–193 | 174–196 | 173–198 | 168–203 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 176 | 59% | 168–184 | 165–186 | 163–188 | 160–192 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 173 | 41% | 165–181 | 163–184 | 161–186 | 157–189 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 154 | 0.3% | 147–163 | 145–166 | 143–167 | 141–173 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 143 | 0% | 133–150 | 131–153 | 129–155 | 125–159 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 143 | 0% | 133–151 | 131–153 | 129–155 | 126–158 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 138 | 0% | 130–145 | 127–147 | 126–149 | 120–152 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 137 | 0% | 129–144 | 127–146 | 125–149 | 120–151 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 133 | 0% | 126–140 | 124–143 | 122–145 | 119–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 119 | 0% | 112–127 | 110–129 | 109–131 | 106–135 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 119 | 0% | 112–125 | 110–128 | 109–130 | 106–132 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 109 | 0% | 98–117 | 97–119 | 95–121 | 92–124 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 203 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 206 | 2% | 98% | |
| 207 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 208 | 2% | 94% | |
| 209 | 3% | 92% | |
| 210 | 2% | 89% | |
| 211 | 5% | 87% | |
| 212 | 9% | 82% | |
| 213 | 3% | 72% | |
| 214 | 2% | 69% | |
| 215 | 6% | 67% | |
| 216 | 6% | 61% | |
| 217 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 218 | 8% | 50% | |
| 219 | 3% | 42% | |
| 220 | 2% | 39% | |
| 221 | 4% | 37% | |
| 222 | 1.4% | 32% | |
| 223 | 5% | 31% | |
| 224 | 4% | 26% | |
| 225 | 2% | 22% | |
| 226 | 2% | 20% | |
| 227 | 2% | 18% | |
| 228 | 6% | 15% | |
| 229 | 2% | 9% | |
| 230 | 3% | 8% | |
| 231 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 232 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 233 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 234 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 235 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 236 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 173 | 2% | 98% | |
| 174 | 2% | 96% | |
| 175 | 2% | 94% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 92% | |
| 177 | 5% | 90% | |
| 178 | 3% | 85% | |
| 179 | 8% | 82% | |
| 180 | 3% | 74% | |
| 181 | 5% | 71% | |
| 182 | 5% | 66% | |
| 183 | 8% | 61% | |
| 184 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 185 | 5% | 49% | |
| 186 | 7% | 44% | |
| 187 | 4% | 37% | |
| 188 | 4% | 33% | |
| 189 | 5% | 29% | |
| 190 | 2% | 25% | |
| 191 | 3% | 23% | |
| 192 | 7% | 20% | |
| 193 | 3% | 13% | |
| 194 | 2% | 10% | |
| 195 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 196 | 3% | 7% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 198 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 165 | 2% | 96% | |
| 166 | 2% | 95% | |
| 167 | 2% | 92% | |
| 168 | 2% | 90% | |
| 169 | 5% | 89% | |
| 170 | 4% | 84% | |
| 171 | 3% | 80% | |
| 172 | 5% | 77% | |
| 173 | 9% | 72% | |
| 174 | 4% | 63% | |
| 175 | 5% | 59% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 54% | |
| 177 | 7% | 47% | |
| 178 | 5% | 40% | |
| 179 | 4% | 35% | |
| 180 | 2% | 30% | Median |
| 181 | 6% | 28% | |
| 182 | 9% | 22% | |
| 183 | 2% | 12% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 185 | 2% | 9% | |
| 186 | 3% | 7% | |
| 187 | 2% | 4% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 162 | 2% | 97% | |
| 163 | 3% | 96% | |
| 164 | 2% | 93% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 166 | 2% | 90% | |
| 167 | 9% | 88% | |
| 168 | 6% | 78% | |
| 169 | 2% | 72% | |
| 170 | 4% | 70% | |
| 171 | 5% | 65% | |
| 172 | 7% | 60% | Median |
| 173 | 7% | 53% | |
| 174 | 5% | 46% | |
| 175 | 4% | 41% | Majority |
| 176 | 9% | 37% | |
| 177 | 5% | 28% | |
| 178 | 3% | 23% | |
| 179 | 4% | 20% | |
| 180 | 5% | 16% | |
| 181 | 2% | 11% | |
| 182 | 2% | 10% | |
| 183 | 2% | 8% | |
| 184 | 2% | 5% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 143 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 145 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 146 | 3% | 95% | |
| 147 | 3% | 92% | |
| 148 | 3% | 89% | |
| 149 | 7% | 86% | |
| 150 | 4% | 78% | |
| 151 | 4% | 74% | |
| 152 | 8% | 71% | |
| 153 | 4% | 63% | |
| 154 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 155 | 5% | 50% | |
| 156 | 5% | 44% | |
| 157 | 4% | 39% | |
| 158 | 9% | 35% | |
| 159 | 5% | 26% | |
| 160 | 4% | 22% | |
| 161 | 3% | 18% | |
| 162 | 2% | 14% | |
| 163 | 3% | 12% | |
| 164 | 3% | 10% | |
| 165 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 166 | 2% | 5% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 129 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 132 | 4% | 95% | |
| 133 | 2% | 91% | |
| 134 | 2% | 89% | |
| 135 | 4% | 87% | |
| 136 | 4% | 83% | |
| 137 | 4% | 79% | |
| 138 | 2% | 75% | |
| 139 | 5% | 73% | |
| 140 | 9% | 68% | |
| 141 | 3% | 60% | |
| 142 | 3% | 57% | |
| 143 | 4% | 53% | |
| 144 | 9% | 49% | |
| 145 | 6% | 40% | |
| 146 | 5% | 35% | |
| 147 | 7% | 29% | Median |
| 148 | 6% | 22% | |
| 149 | 3% | 17% | |
| 150 | 4% | 14% | |
| 151 | 2% | 10% | |
| 152 | 2% | 8% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 155 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 129 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 131 | 2% | 95% | |
| 132 | 2% | 93% | |
| 133 | 3% | 91% | |
| 134 | 4% | 88% | |
| 135 | 3% | 85% | |
| 136 | 3% | 82% | |
| 137 | 7% | 79% | |
| 138 | 3% | 72% | |
| 139 | 6% | 68% | |
| 140 | 3% | 63% | |
| 141 | 5% | 60% | |
| 142 | 5% | 55% | |
| 143 | 9% | 51% | |
| 144 | 4% | 42% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 38% | |
| 146 | 4% | 33% | |
| 147 | 5% | 29% | Median |
| 148 | 3% | 24% | |
| 149 | 7% | 20% | |
| 150 | 3% | 13% | |
| 151 | 4% | 11% | |
| 152 | 2% | 7% | |
| 153 | 2% | 5% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 155 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 127 | 3% | 97% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 129 | 3% | 93% | |
| 130 | 3% | 90% | |
| 131 | 7% | 87% | |
| 132 | 5% | 80% | |
| 133 | 4% | 74% | |
| 134 | 4% | 71% | |
| 135 | 5% | 66% | |
| 136 | 5% | 62% | Median |
| 137 | 6% | 57% | |
| 138 | 8% | 51% | |
| 139 | 9% | 43% | |
| 140 | 5% | 34% | |
| 141 | 4% | 30% | |
| 142 | 10% | 26% | |
| 143 | 4% | 16% | Last Result |
| 144 | 2% | 12% | |
| 145 | 2% | 10% | |
| 146 | 2% | 8% | |
| 147 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 148 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 149 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 125 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 127 | 3% | 96% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 129 | 3% | 93% | |
| 130 | 4% | 89% | |
| 131 | 7% | 86% | |
| 132 | 6% | 79% | |
| 133 | 4% | 73% | |
| 134 | 5% | 69% | |
| 135 | 5% | 65% | |
| 136 | 5% | 60% | Median |
| 137 | 6% | 55% | |
| 138 | 8% | 49% | |
| 139 | 9% | 41% | |
| 140 | 4% | 32% | |
| 141 | 4% | 28% | |
| 142 | 10% | 24% | |
| 143 | 4% | 14% | |
| 144 | 2% | 10% | |
| 145 | 2% | 9% | |
| 146 | 2% | 7% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 122 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 123 | 2% | 97% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 125 | 2% | 95% | |
| 126 | 5% | 93% | |
| 127 | 5% | 88% | |
| 128 | 6% | 83% | Last Result |
| 129 | 5% | 77% | |
| 130 | 4% | 72% | |
| 131 | 6% | 68% | |
| 132 | 8% | 62% | Median |
| 133 | 5% | 53% | |
| 134 | 9% | 48% | |
| 135 | 5% | 39% | |
| 136 | 4% | 34% | |
| 137 | 9% | 30% | |
| 138 | 4% | 21% | |
| 139 | 5% | 17% | |
| 140 | 3% | 13% | |
| 141 | 3% | 10% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 143 | 2% | 5% | |
| 144 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 145 | 2% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 110 | 3% | 97% | |
| 111 | 3% | 94% | |
| 112 | 4% | 92% | |
| 113 | 9% | 87% | |
| 114 | 5% | 79% | |
| 115 | 3% | 74% | |
| 116 | 6% | 71% | |
| 117 | 3% | 65% | |
| 118 | 8% | 61% | Median |
| 119 | 5% | 54% | |
| 120 | 9% | 48% | |
| 121 | 6% | 39% | Last Result |
| 122 | 5% | 33% | |
| 123 | 3% | 27% | |
| 124 | 9% | 24% | |
| 125 | 3% | 15% | |
| 126 | 1.5% | 12% | |
| 127 | 3% | 10% | |
| 128 | 2% | 7% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 130 | 2% | 5% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 110 | 3% | 97% | |
| 111 | 3% | 94% | |
| 112 | 5% | 91% | |
| 113 | 9% | 86% | |
| 114 | 5% | 77% | |
| 115 | 4% | 73% | |
| 116 | 6% | 69% | |
| 117 | 4% | 63% | |
| 118 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 119 | 5% | 52% | |
| 120 | 10% | 46% | |
| 121 | 6% | 37% | |
| 122 | 5% | 30% | |
| 123 | 3% | 25% | |
| 124 | 9% | 22% | |
| 125 | 3% | 13% | |
| 126 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 127 | 2% | 8% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 130 | 2% | 4% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 95% | |
| 98 | 3% | 92% | |
| 99 | 2% | 90% | |
| 100 | 3% | 88% | |
| 101 | 2% | 84% | |
| 102 | 5% | 82% | |
| 103 | 3% | 77% | |
| 104 | 8% | 75% | |
| 105 | 4% | 67% | |
| 106 | 3% | 63% | |
| 107 | 3% | 60% | |
| 108 | 3% | 57% | |
| 109 | 5% | 54% | |
| 110 | 4% | 49% | |
| 111 | 9% | 46% | |
| 112 | 3% | 37% | |
| 113 | 6% | 33% | |
| 114 | 6% | 27% | Median |
| 115 | 4% | 21% | |
| 116 | 3% | 17% | Last Result |
| 117 | 5% | 15% | |
| 118 | 3% | 10% | |
| 119 | 2% | 7% | |
| 120 | 2% | 5% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 9–21 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1486
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.94%