Opinion Poll by Sifo, 1–11 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 27.2% 26.6–27.9% 26.4–28.0% 26.2–28.2% 25.9–28.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 22.9% 22.3–23.5% 22.1–23.7% 22.0–23.9% 21.7–24.2%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.4% 17.8–19.0% 17.7–19.1% 17.5–19.3% 17.3–19.6%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 9.7% 9.3–10.2% 9.2–10.3% 9.1–10.4% 8.9–10.6%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.8% 8.4–9.2% 8.3–9.4% 8.2–9.5% 8.0–9.7%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 4.4% 4.1–4.7% 4.0–4.8% 3.9–4.9% 3.8–5.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.2% 3.9–4.5% 3.8–4.6% 3.8–4.7% 3.6–4.8%
Liberalerna 5.5% 2.9% 2.7–3.2% 2.6–3.2% 2.5–3.3% 2.4–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 100 97–104 96–105 96–107 95–108
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 84 82–87 81–88 80–89 79–91
Sverigedemokraterna 62 67 65–70 65–72 64–72 63–74
Vänsterpartiet 28 35 34–37 34–38 33–39 33–40
Centerpartiet 31 32 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Kristdemokraterna 22 16 15–17 15–17 15–18 0–19
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 15 0–16 0–17 0–17 0–18
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 1.2% 99.7%  
96 7% 98.5%  
97 6% 91%  
98 13% 85%  
99 14% 72%  
100 23% 59% Last Result, Median
101 13% 36%  
102 6% 23%  
103 6% 18%  
104 6% 12%  
105 2% 6%  
106 1.1% 4%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.2% 0.6%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.7% 99.8%  
80 2% 99.2%  
81 6% 97%  
82 12% 91%  
83 10% 79%  
84 28% 69% Median
85 14% 42%  
86 9% 28%  
87 10% 18%  
88 5% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100% Last Result
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 3% 99.3%  
65 9% 96%  
66 15% 87%  
67 22% 72% Median
68 14% 50%  
69 17% 36%  
70 11% 19%  
71 3% 8%  
72 4% 6%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.5% 100%  
33 3% 99.5%  
34 12% 96%  
35 35% 84% Median
36 24% 49%  
37 16% 25%  
38 5% 9%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9%  
30 6% 99.2%  
31 19% 93% Last Result
32 33% 74% Median
33 20% 40%  
34 14% 21%  
35 5% 7%  
36 0.9% 1.3%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 13% 98%  
16 59% 85% Median
17 22% 26%  
18 3% 4%  
19 1.0% 1.0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0% Last Result

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 0% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 0% 83%  
8 0% 83%  
9 0% 83%  
10 0% 83%  
11 0% 83%  
12 0% 83%  
13 0% 83%  
14 0% 83%  
15 42% 83% Median
16 34% 41% Last Result
17 6% 7%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 216 100% 212–225 212–226 211–227 210–230
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 184 100% 181–191 180–192 179–194 178–196
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 182 94% 175–185 174–186 173–187 171–193
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 167 6% 164–174 163–175 162–176 156–178
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 151 0% 149–157 148–159 146–160 146–163
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 150 0% 141–152 140–153 139–155 137–160
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 146 0% 138–149 137–151 136–152 134–155
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 135 0% 133–141 132–142 131–143 130–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 132 0% 129–138 128–138 127–139 119–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 132 0% 129–138 128–138 127–139 119–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 116 0% 113–121 113–122 112–123 111–126
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 116 0% 113–121 113–122 112–123 111–126
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 115 0% 104–117 103–118 102–119 100–122

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0.1% 100%  
209 0.2% 99.9%  
210 0.6% 99.7%  
211 3% 99.2%  
212 8% 97%  
213 11% 89%  
214 9% 78%  
215 15% 69%  
216 18% 54% Median
217 12% 36%  
218 3% 24%  
219 2% 21%  
220 0.4% 19%  
221 0.6% 19%  
222 2% 18%  
223 2% 16%  
224 2% 14%  
225 6% 12%  
226 3% 6%  
227 1.2% 3%  
228 0.5% 2%  
229 0.5% 1.1%  
230 0.2% 0.6%  
231 0% 0.5%  
232 0% 0.4%  
233 0% 0.4%  
234 0.1% 0.4%  
235 0.1% 0.3%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0.1% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100% Majority
176 0.1% 100%  
177 0.2% 99.9%  
178 1.4% 99.7%  
179 3% 98%  
180 4% 95%  
181 10% 91%  
182 17% 81%  
183 10% 64%  
184 19% 54% Median
185 8% 35%  
186 7% 27%  
187 3% 21%  
188 1.5% 18%  
189 2% 17%  
190 2% 15%  
191 7% 13%  
192 2% 6%  
193 0.9% 4%  
194 2% 3%  
195 0.7% 1.4%  
196 0.2% 0.7%  
197 0% 0.5%  
198 0% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0.1% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0.1% 100%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0.7% 99.8%  
172 0.9% 99.1%  
173 2% 98%  
174 2% 96%  
175 7% 94% Majority
176 2% 87%  
177 1.3% 85%  
178 2% 84%  
179 2% 82%  
180 13% 80%  
181 11% 66%  
182 29% 56% Median
183 5% 27%  
184 11% 22%  
185 4% 10%  
186 4% 7%  
187 0.8% 3%  
188 0.3% 2%  
189 0.1% 2%  
190 0.2% 2%  
191 0.2% 2%  
192 1.0% 2%  
193 0.2% 0.6%  
194 0.2% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0.1% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
155 0.2% 99.8%  
156 0.2% 99.6%  
157 1.0% 99.4%  
158 0.2% 98%  
159 0.2% 98%  
160 0.1% 98%  
161 0.3% 98%  
162 0.8% 98%  
163 4% 97%  
164 4% 93%  
165 11% 90%  
166 5% 78%  
167 29% 73% Median
168 11% 44%  
169 13% 34%  
170 2% 20%  
171 2% 18%  
172 1.3% 16%  
173 2% 15%  
174 7% 13%  
175 2% 6% Majority
176 2% 4%  
177 0.9% 2%  
178 0.7% 0.9%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0.1% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0.1% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 2% 99.7%  
147 2% 97%  
148 5% 95%  
149 11% 90%  
150 6% 79%  
151 26% 73% Median
152 10% 47%  
153 11% 37%  
154 7% 26%  
155 2% 19%  
156 3% 17%  
157 8% 15%  
158 1.2% 6%  
159 2% 5%  
160 2% 3%  
161 0.5% 1.3%  
162 0.3% 0.8%  
163 0.2% 0.5%  
164 0.2% 0.3%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.2% 100%  
137 0.4% 99.8%  
138 0.6% 99.3%  
139 2% 98.8%  
140 2% 96%  
141 6% 94%  
142 2% 89%  
143 1.5% 86%  
144 0.8% 85% Last Result
145 0.8% 84%  
146 1.3% 83%  
147 4% 82%  
148 10% 78%  
149 13% 68%  
150 22% 55% Median
151 14% 32%  
152 10% 18%  
153 3% 8%  
154 2% 5%  
155 0.6% 3%  
156 0.2% 2%  
157 0.4% 2%  
158 0.4% 1.4%  
159 0.5% 1.1%  
160 0.3% 0.6%  
161 0.2% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.6% 99.8%  
135 1.1% 99.2%  
136 2% 98%  
137 3% 96%  
138 5% 93%  
139 3% 88%  
140 0.9% 85%  
141 0.8% 84%  
142 0.8% 84%  
143 4% 83%  
144 5% 79%  
145 12% 74%  
146 17% 63%  
147 18% 45% Median
148 9% 27%  
149 8% 18%  
150 4% 10%  
151 2% 5%  
152 1.2% 3%  
153 0.8% 2%  
154 0.4% 1.1%  
155 0.2% 0.6%  
156 0.2% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0.2% 99.9%  
130 1.1% 99.7%  
131 2% 98.7%  
132 6% 96%  
133 14% 90%  
134 12% 76%  
135 24% 63% Median
136 12% 39%  
137 6% 27%  
138 3% 22%  
139 3% 19%  
140 3% 16%  
141 6% 13%  
142 3% 7%  
143 2% 4%  
144 1.0% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.0%  
146 0.1% 0.6%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.3% 99.7%  
120 0.5% 99.4%  
121 0.2% 98.9%  
122 0.1% 98.6%  
123 0.4% 98.5%  
124 0.1% 98%  
125 0.2% 98%  
126 0.3% 98%  
127 0.7% 98%  
128 2% 97%  
129 8% 94%  
130 10% 87%  
131 12% 77%  
132 22% 65% Median
133 12% 43%  
134 10% 32%  
135 5% 22%  
136 3% 17%  
137 2% 13%  
138 8% 11%  
139 1.3% 4%  
140 1.4% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.0%  
142 0.5% 0.7%  
143 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
144 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.3% 99.7%  
120 0.5% 99.4%  
121 0.2% 98.9%  
122 0.1% 98.6%  
123 0.4% 98.5% Last Result
124 0.1% 98%  
125 0.2% 98%  
126 0.3% 98%  
127 0.7% 98%  
128 2% 97%  
129 8% 94%  
130 10% 87%  
131 12% 77%  
132 22% 65% Median
133 12% 43%  
134 10% 32%  
135 5% 22%  
136 3% 17%  
137 2% 13%  
138 8% 11%  
139 1.3% 4%  
140 1.4% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.0%  
142 0.5% 0.7%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.2% 100%  
111 0.7% 99.7%  
112 3% 99.0%  
113 9% 96%  
114 7% 87%  
115 10% 79%  
116 24% 69% Median
117 13% 45%  
118 9% 33%  
119 8% 24%  
120 3% 16%  
121 7% 13% Last Result
122 2% 6%  
123 2% 4%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.1%  
126 0.3% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100% Last Result
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0.2% 100%  
111 0.7% 99.7%  
112 3% 99.0%  
113 9% 96%  
114 7% 87%  
115 10% 79%  
116 24% 69% Median
117 13% 45%  
118 9% 33%  
119 8% 24%  
120 3% 16%  
121 7% 13%  
122 2% 6%  
123 2% 4%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.1%  
126 0.3% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.2% 100%  
100 0.3% 99.7%  
101 0.6% 99.5%  
102 2% 98.9%  
103 4% 97%  
104 5% 93%  
105 1.4% 88%  
106 0.8% 86%  
107 2% 86%  
108 0.2% 84%  
109 0.3% 83%  
110 0.7% 83%  
111 3% 82%  
112 6% 79%  
113 11% 73%  
114 12% 63%  
115 25% 51% Median
116 9% 26% Last Result
117 11% 17%  
118 3% 6%  
119 2% 3%  
120 0.8% 2%  
121 0.4% 0.9%  
122 0.2% 0.5%  
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations