Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 1 March–4 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 27.6% 26.8–28.4% 26.6–28.7% 26.4–28.9% 26.0–29.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 22.6% 21.9–23.4% 21.6–23.6% 21.5–23.8% 21.1–24.2%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.7% 18.0–19.4% 17.8–19.6% 17.6–19.8% 17.3–20.2%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 9.5% 9.0–10.1% 8.8–10.2% 8.7–10.3% 8.5–10.6%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.4% 7.9–8.9% 7.8–9.1% 7.7–9.2% 7.4–9.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.5% 4.1–4.9% 4.1–5.0% 4.0–5.1% 3.8–5.3%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 4.2% 3.9–4.6% 3.8–4.7% 3.7–4.8% 3.5–5.0%
Liberalerna 5.5% 2.9% 2.6–3.2% 2.5–3.3% 2.5–3.4% 2.3–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 101 98–106 97–108 97–108 95–111
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 83 80–87 79–89 78–90 77–92
Sverigedemokraterna 62 69 66–72 65–73 65–74 63–76
Vänsterpartiet 28 35 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
Centerpartiet 31 31 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 0–20
Kristdemokraterna 22 15 0–17 0–17 0–18 0–18
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 1.4% 99.3%  
97 7% 98%  
98 7% 91%  
99 8% 85%  
100 8% 77% Last Result
101 20% 69% Median
102 9% 48%  
103 13% 39%  
104 7% 26%  
105 4% 18%  
106 4% 14%  
107 4% 10%  
108 4% 6%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 0.4% 1.0%  
111 0.3% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 2% 99.4%  
79 3% 97%  
80 4% 94%  
81 18% 90%  
82 10% 72%  
83 14% 62% Median
84 18% 48%  
85 6% 30%  
86 11% 24%  
87 3% 13%  
88 3% 9%  
89 3% 6%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0.5% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100% Last Result
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 2% 99.5%  
65 4% 98%  
66 12% 94%  
67 12% 83%  
68 16% 71%  
69 16% 55% Median
70 13% 39%  
71 8% 26%  
72 11% 19%  
73 3% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.9%  
32 7% 98.9%  
33 12% 92%  
34 18% 80%  
35 24% 62% Median
36 20% 37%  
37 10% 18%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 5% 99.3%  
29 10% 94%  
30 24% 84%  
31 24% 60% Last Result, Median
32 20% 36%  
33 10% 16%  
34 4% 6%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 14% 98%  
16 28% 84% Last Result
17 29% 56% Median
18 20% 27%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.7% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 0% 78%  
2 0% 78%  
3 0% 78%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 0% 78%  
7 0% 78%  
8 0% 78%  
9 0% 78%  
10 0% 78%  
11 0% 78%  
12 0% 78%  
13 0% 78%  
14 0% 78%  
15 31% 78% Median
16 31% 47%  
17 13% 16%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 215 100% 211–225 210–226 209–227 208–230
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 184 100% 180–193 179–194 179–195 177–198
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 183 98.9% 180–191 178–193 176–195 172–196
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 166 1.1% 158–169 156–171 154–173 153–177
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 153 0% 149–159 147–161 146–162 140–164
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 152 0% 148–158 147–161 146–162 144–163
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 149 0% 145–155 143–157 142–158 137–160
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 136 0% 132–143 132–144 130–145 129–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 128 0% 118–132 117–133 116–134 114–137
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 128 0% 118–132 117–133 116–134 114–137
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 118 0% 114–123 113–125 111–125 104–127
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 114 0% 110–119 110–121 109–122 107–124
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 114 0% 110–119 110–121 109–122 107–124

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0.1% 100%  
207 0.3% 99.9%  
208 0.6% 99.6%  
209 2% 99.0%  
210 5% 97%  
211 7% 92%  
212 9% 86%  
213 10% 77%  
214 11% 66%  
215 16% 55% Median
216 5% 39%  
217 5% 35%  
218 4% 29%  
219 2% 25%  
220 0.7% 24%  
221 3% 23%  
222 3% 20%  
223 3% 18%  
224 3% 15%  
225 6% 12%  
226 2% 6%  
227 2% 4%  
228 0.8% 2%  
229 0.3% 1.1%  
230 0.4% 0.8%  
231 0.1% 0.4%  
232 0% 0.3%  
233 0% 0.3%  
234 0% 0.3%  
235 0% 0.3%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0.1% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0.1% 100% Majority
176 0.2% 99.9%  
177 0.9% 99.6%  
178 1.2% 98.8%  
179 4% 98%  
180 6% 94%  
181 8% 88%  
182 11% 80%  
183 5% 69%  
184 17% 63% Median
185 11% 47%  
186 5% 35%  
187 4% 30%  
188 3% 26%  
189 2% 23%  
190 3% 21%  
191 2% 17%  
192 3% 15%  
193 4% 11%  
194 4% 7%  
195 2% 3%  
196 0.7% 2%  
197 0.5% 1.1%  
198 0.2% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.3%  
202 0% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0.2% 99.9%  
172 0.2% 99.7%  
173 0.2% 99.5%  
174 0.4% 99.3%  
175 0.3% 98.9% Majority
176 1.3% 98.6%  
177 2% 97%  
178 2% 95%  
179 4% 94%  
180 9% 90%  
181 10% 82%  
182 13% 72%  
183 10% 59%  
184 9% 49% Median
185 10% 40%  
186 5% 30%  
187 5% 25%  
188 2% 20%  
189 2% 18%  
190 2% 16%  
191 6% 14%  
192 2% 8%  
193 2% 6%  
194 2% 4%  
195 1.3% 3% Last Result
196 0.9% 1.3%  
197 0.2% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0.1% 100%  
152 0.2% 99.9%  
153 0.9% 99.6%  
154 1.3% 98.7% Last Result
155 2% 97%  
156 2% 96%  
157 2% 94%  
158 6% 92%  
159 2% 86%  
160 2% 84%  
161 2% 82%  
162 5% 80%  
163 5% 75%  
164 10% 70%  
165 9% 60%  
166 10% 51%  
167 13% 41% Median
168 10% 28%  
169 9% 18%  
170 4% 10%  
171 2% 6%  
172 2% 5%  
173 1.3% 3%  
174 0.3% 1.4%  
175 0.4% 1.1% Majority
176 0.2% 0.7%  
177 0.2% 0.5%  
178 0.2% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.8%  
140 0.2% 99.6%  
141 0.4% 99.5%  
142 0.3% 99.1%  
143 0.2% 98.8%  
144 0.2% 98.6% Last Result
145 0.7% 98%  
146 2% 98%  
147 1.2% 96%  
148 4% 95%  
149 7% 90%  
150 6% 84%  
151 15% 77%  
152 6% 62%  
153 14% 56% Median
154 8% 42%  
155 11% 34%  
156 4% 23%  
157 3% 19%  
158 3% 16%  
159 3% 13%  
160 4% 10%  
161 2% 6%  
162 2% 4%  
163 0.6% 2%  
164 1.0% 1.4%  
165 0.3% 0.4%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0.1% 100%  
144 0.4% 99.8%  
145 0.7% 99.5%  
146 3% 98.8%  
147 3% 96%  
148 6% 93%  
149 15% 87%  
150 10% 72%  
151 9% 62%  
152 9% 53% Median
153 12% 44%  
154 6% 31%  
155 3% 25%  
156 2% 22%  
157 4% 19%  
158 6% 15%  
159 2% 9%  
160 1.3% 7%  
161 2% 6%  
162 2% 4%  
163 1.3% 2%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.7%  
137 0.4% 99.5%  
138 0.3% 99.2%  
139 0.4% 98.9%  
140 0.2% 98%  
141 0.4% 98%  
142 0.8% 98%  
143 2% 97%  
144 4% 95%  
145 6% 91%  
146 6% 84%  
147 14% 79%  
148 9% 65%  
149 17% 56% Median
150 9% 39%  
151 5% 30%  
152 6% 25%  
153 4% 19%  
154 3% 15%  
155 3% 13%  
156 5% 10%  
157 2% 5%  
158 2% 4%  
159 1.0% 2%  
160 0.5% 0.7%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
129 0.4% 99.8%  
130 2% 99.4%  
131 2% 97%  
132 5% 95%  
133 8% 90%  
134 12% 81%  
135 12% 69%  
136 8% 57% Median
137 9% 49%  
138 11% 39%  
139 6% 28%  
140 4% 22%  
141 3% 17%  
142 4% 14%  
143 4% 10%  
144 2% 6%  
145 1.4% 4%  
146 1.0% 2%  
147 0.8% 1.4%  
148 0.3% 0.6%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.3% 99.9%  
114 0.7% 99.6%  
115 0.8% 98.9%  
116 2% 98%  
117 4% 96%  
118 3% 92%  
119 4% 89%  
120 2% 85%  
121 2% 83%  
122 2% 81%  
123 2% 79%  
124 2% 77%  
125 3% 75%  
126 6% 72%  
127 10% 67%  
128 13% 57%  
129 11% 44% Median
130 11% 33%  
131 10% 22%  
132 6% 12%  
133 3% 6%  
134 1.1% 3%  
135 1.1% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.1%  
137 0.4% 0.8%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.3% 99.9%  
114 0.7% 99.6%  
115 0.8% 98.9%  
116 2% 98%  
117 4% 96%  
118 3% 92%  
119 4% 89%  
120 2% 85%  
121 2% 83%  
122 2% 81%  
123 2% 79% Last Result
124 2% 77%  
125 3% 75%  
126 6% 72%  
127 10% 67%  
128 13% 57%  
129 11% 44% Median
130 11% 33%  
131 10% 22%  
132 6% 12%  
133 3% 6%  
134 1.1% 3%  
135 1.1% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.1%  
137 0.4% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.4% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.3%  
106 0.3% 99.0%  
107 0.3% 98.7%  
108 0.1% 98%  
109 0.1% 98%  
110 0.1% 98%  
111 0.7% 98%  
112 1.4% 97%  
113 5% 96%  
114 4% 91%  
115 6% 87%  
116 9% 80% Last Result
117 10% 71%  
118 15% 62% Median
119 15% 46%  
120 9% 32%  
121 6% 23%  
122 4% 17%  
123 4% 13%  
124 2% 9%  
125 5% 7%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.5% 0.9%  
128 0.2% 0.4%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.5% 99.8%  
108 1.5% 99.3%  
109 3% 98%  
110 6% 95%  
111 7% 89%  
112 13% 82%  
113 13% 69%  
114 12% 56% Median
115 9% 44%  
116 10% 35%  
117 7% 25%  
118 5% 18%  
119 5% 13%  
120 2% 9%  
121 3% 6% Last Result
122 2% 4%  
123 1.1% 2%  
124 0.3% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100% Last Result
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.5% 99.8%  
108 1.5% 99.3%  
109 3% 98%  
110 6% 95%  
111 7% 89%  
112 13% 82%  
113 13% 69%  
114 12% 56% Median
115 9% 44%  
116 10% 35%  
117 7% 25%  
118 5% 18%  
119 5% 13%  
120 2% 9%  
121 3% 6%  
122 2% 4%  
123 1.1% 2%  
124 0.3% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations