Opinion Poll by Sentio, 23–26 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 25.3% | 23.4–27.4% | 22.9–28.0% | 22.4–28.5% | 21.5–29.5% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 21.4% | 19.6–23.4% | 19.1–23.9% | 18.7–24.4% | 17.9–25.4% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.2% | 19.4–23.1% | 18.9–23.7% | 18.5–24.2% | 17.6–25.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.9–11.6% | 8.5–12.1% | 8.2–12.5% | 7.7–13.2% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.7–9.3% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.1% | 4.2–7.4% | 3.8–8.0% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.7–5.7% | 3.5–6.0% | 3.3–6.3% | 3.0–6.8% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–3.9% | 1.4–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 95 | 86–100 | 85–101 | 83–105 | 80–108 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 78 | 74–85 | 71–88 | 69–89 | 66–92 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 79 | 71–86 | 69–87 | 68–89 | 65–93 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 38 | 34–41 | 32–44 | 32–45 | 29–49 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 25 | 21–30 | 20–31 | 20–32 | 18–34 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 20 | 17–25 | 17–26 | 16–27 | 0–29 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–23 | 0–25 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 84 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 85 | 3% | 96% | |
| 86 | 3% | 93% | |
| 87 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 89 | 7% | 87% | |
| 90 | 5% | 80% | |
| 91 | 4% | 75% | |
| 92 | 2% | 71% | |
| 93 | 2% | 69% | |
| 94 | 7% | 68% | |
| 95 | 35% | 61% | Median |
| 96 | 4% | 26% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 22% | |
| 98 | 2% | 21% | |
| 99 | 6% | 19% | |
| 100 | 7% | 13% | Last Result |
| 101 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 105 | 2% | 3% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 2% | 95% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 74 | 21% | 92% | |
| 75 | 11% | 71% | |
| 76 | 3% | 60% | |
| 77 | 3% | 57% | |
| 78 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 79 | 6% | 47% | |
| 80 | 4% | 41% | |
| 81 | 5% | 37% | |
| 82 | 4% | 32% | |
| 83 | 15% | 28% | |
| 84 | 2% | 13% | |
| 85 | 3% | 11% | |
| 86 | 3% | 8% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 69 | 2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 71 | 4% | 94% | |
| 72 | 1.5% | 89% | |
| 73 | 3% | 88% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 75 | 10% | 84% | |
| 76 | 21% | 75% | |
| 77 | 2% | 53% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 52% | |
| 79 | 21% | 50% | Median |
| 80 | 4% | 30% | |
| 81 | 3% | 26% | |
| 82 | 4% | 22% | |
| 83 | 4% | 18% | |
| 84 | 2% | 15% | |
| 85 | 3% | 13% | |
| 86 | 3% | 10% | |
| 87 | 3% | 7% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 3% | 93% | |
| 34 | 3% | 90% | |
| 35 | 5% | 87% | |
| 36 | 12% | 82% | |
| 37 | 4% | 70% | |
| 38 | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 39 | 27% | 45% | |
| 40 | 2% | 18% | |
| 41 | 8% | 16% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 20 | 8% | 98% | |
| 21 | 5% | 90% | |
| 22 | 9% | 85% | |
| 23 | 4% | 77% | |
| 24 | 22% | 72% | |
| 25 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 26 | 26% | 47% | |
| 27 | 4% | 21% | |
| 28 | 3% | 17% | |
| 29 | 4% | 15% | |
| 30 | 6% | 11% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 5% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 16 | 2% | 98% | |
| 17 | 8% | 96% | |
| 18 | 18% | 88% | |
| 19 | 7% | 70% | |
| 20 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 42% | |
| 22 | 14% | 34% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 20% | |
| 24 | 5% | 19% | |
| 25 | 7% | 13% | |
| 26 | 2% | 6% | |
| 27 | 2% | 5% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 86% | |
| 2 | 0% | 86% | |
| 3 | 0% | 86% | |
| 4 | 0% | 86% | |
| 5 | 0% | 86% | |
| 6 | 0% | 86% | |
| 7 | 0% | 86% | |
| 8 | 0% | 86% | |
| 9 | 0% | 86% | |
| 10 | 0% | 86% | |
| 11 | 0% | 86% | |
| 12 | 0% | 86% | |
| 13 | 0% | 86% | |
| 14 | 0% | 86% | |
| 15 | 23% | 86% | |
| 16 | 24% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 3% | 39% | |
| 18 | 8% | 35% | |
| 19 | 10% | 27% | |
| 20 | 11% | 18% | |
| 21 | 3% | 6% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 196 | 99.9% | 190–206 | 188–209 | 184–210 | 179–215 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 176 | 57% | 170–187 | 169–189 | 165–191 | 159–197 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 171 | 23% | 165–180 | 162–182 | 160–185 | 153–189 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 172 | 42% | 162–179 | 160–180 | 157–184 | 150–190 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 155 | 0.8% | 150–166 | 147–168 | 144–169 | 139–175 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 148 | 0% | 136–155 | 136–157 | 132–159 | 124–164 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 135 | 0% | 125–141 | 121–144 | 120–146 | 111–150 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 133 | 0% | 123–138 | 120–141 | 118–143 | 115–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 125 | 0% | 116–132 | 113–135 | 113–138 | 106–142 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 125 | 0% | 116–132 | 113–135 | 112–138 | 106–141 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 110 | 0% | 100–115 | 95–118 | 94–119 | 85–125 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 104 | 0% | 98–112 | 91–113 | 91–115 | 89–121 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 104 | 0% | 97–112 | 91–113 | 91–115 | 88–119 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 187 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 189 | 2% | 95% | |
| 190 | 7% | 92% | |
| 191 | 2% | 85% | |
| 192 | 2% | 83% | |
| 193 | 7% | 82% | |
| 194 | 4% | 75% | |
| 195 | 20% | 71% | |
| 196 | 3% | 51% | |
| 197 | 2% | 48% | |
| 198 | 7% | 46% | |
| 199 | 2% | 39% | Median |
| 200 | 19% | 37% | |
| 201 | 4% | 18% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 204 | 2% | 13% | |
| 205 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 206 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 207 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 208 | 4% | 9% | |
| 209 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 210 | 2% | 4% | |
| 211 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 212 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 215 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 169 | 4% | 95% | |
| 170 | 6% | 92% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 172 | 5% | 85% | |
| 173 | 20% | 80% | |
| 174 | 3% | 60% | |
| 175 | 2% | 57% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 55% | |
| 177 | 18% | 50% | Median |
| 178 | 1.2% | 32% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 31% | |
| 180 | 1.3% | 30% | |
| 181 | 5% | 28% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 183 | 4% | 22% | |
| 184 | 3% | 19% | |
| 185 | 3% | 16% | |
| 186 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 187 | 4% | 12% | |
| 188 | 2% | 8% | |
| 189 | 2% | 6% | |
| 190 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 162 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 165 | 3% | 92% | |
| 166 | 4% | 89% | |
| 167 | 2% | 85% | |
| 168 | 4% | 83% | |
| 169 | 11% | 79% | |
| 170 | 5% | 68% | Last Result |
| 171 | 16% | 63% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 47% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 46% | |
| 174 | 23% | 45% | Median |
| 175 | 0.3% | 23% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 23% | |
| 177 | 2% | 16% | |
| 178 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 179 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 180 | 3% | 12% | |
| 181 | 2% | 9% | |
| 182 | 2% | 7% | |
| 183 | 2% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 159 | 2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 2% | 95% | |
| 161 | 2% | 94% | |
| 162 | 4% | 91% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 164 | 3% | 86% | |
| 165 | 3% | 83% | |
| 166 | 4% | 81% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 77% | |
| 168 | 5% | 76% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 71% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 70% | |
| 171 | 1.2% | 69% | |
| 172 | 18% | 68% | |
| 173 | 5% | 49% | |
| 174 | 2% | 44% | Median |
| 175 | 3% | 42% | Majority |
| 176 | 20% | 40% | |
| 177 | 5% | 20% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 179 | 6% | 14% | |
| 180 | 4% | 8% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 147 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 150 | 7% | 93% | |
| 151 | 6% | 87% | |
| 152 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 153 | 25% | 79% | |
| 154 | 1.3% | 54% | |
| 155 | 5% | 52% | |
| 156 | 3% | 47% | |
| 157 | 1.2% | 44% | Median |
| 158 | 0.9% | 43% | |
| 159 | 16% | 42% | |
| 160 | 3% | 26% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 23% | |
| 162 | 4% | 22% | |
| 163 | 2% | 18% | |
| 164 | 3% | 17% | |
| 165 | 2% | 14% | |
| 166 | 3% | 11% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 168 | 3% | 8% | |
| 169 | 3% | 5% | |
| 170 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 136 | 5% | 95% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 138 | 4% | 89% | |
| 139 | 2% | 86% | |
| 140 | 3% | 83% | |
| 141 | 4% | 81% | |
| 142 | 3% | 77% | |
| 143 | 2% | 74% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 72% | Last Result |
| 145 | 2% | 71% | |
| 146 | 8% | 68% | |
| 147 | 2% | 60% | |
| 148 | 16% | 58% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 43% | Median |
| 150 | 20% | 42% | |
| 151 | 6% | 22% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 155 | 6% | 13% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 157 | 4% | 7% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 121 | 4% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 123 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 125 | 4% | 91% | |
| 126 | 3% | 88% | |
| 127 | 1.5% | 85% | |
| 128 | 4% | 83% | |
| 129 | 3% | 79% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 76% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 74% | |
| 132 | 2% | 73% | |
| 133 | 4% | 71% | |
| 134 | 16% | 67% | |
| 135 | 2% | 51% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 49% | Median |
| 137 | 24% | 48% | |
| 138 | 10% | 24% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 140 | 4% | 14% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 143 | 2% | 8% | |
| 144 | 2% | 5% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 118 | 2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 121 | 2% | 95% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 123 | 2% | 92% | |
| 124 | 3% | 89% | |
| 125 | 2% | 87% | |
| 126 | 4% | 85% | |
| 127 | 5% | 80% | |
| 128 | 4% | 75% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.9% | 71% | |
| 130 | 3% | 70% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 67% | |
| 132 | 2% | 66% | |
| 133 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 134 | 19% | 50% | |
| 135 | 7% | 30% | |
| 136 | 9% | 24% | |
| 137 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 138 | 5% | 13% | |
| 139 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 113 | 4% | 98% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 116 | 6% | 93% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 118 | 17% | 86% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 69% | |
| 120 | 2% | 68% | |
| 121 | 2% | 66% | |
| 122 | 2% | 64% | |
| 123 | 8% | 62% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 54% | Median |
| 125 | 22% | 53% | |
| 126 | 2% | 31% | |
| 127 | 3% | 29% | |
| 128 | 7% | 25% | |
| 129 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 130 | 2% | 17% | |
| 131 | 4% | 16% | |
| 132 | 3% | 11% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 134 | 2% | 7% | |
| 135 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 139 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 113 | 5% | 97% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 116 | 6% | 92% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 118 | 17% | 85% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 68% | |
| 120 | 2% | 67% | |
| 121 | 2% | 65% | |
| 122 | 2% | 63% | |
| 123 | 8% | 61% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.9% | 53% | Median |
| 125 | 22% | 52% | |
| 126 | 2% | 30% | |
| 127 | 3% | 28% | |
| 128 | 7% | 25% | |
| 129 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 130 | 2% | 17% | |
| 131 | 4% | 15% | |
| 132 | 3% | 11% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 134 | 2% | 7% | |
| 135 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 139 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 97% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 98 | 2% | 94% | |
| 99 | 2% | 92% | |
| 100 | 2% | 90% | |
| 101 | 2% | 88% | |
| 102 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 103 | 2% | 84% | |
| 104 | 1.2% | 82% | |
| 105 | 5% | 81% | |
| 106 | 4% | 76% | |
| 107 | 2% | 73% | |
| 108 | 4% | 71% | |
| 109 | 4% | 67% | |
| 110 | 14% | 62% | |
| 111 | 24% | 48% | Median |
| 112 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 113 | 1.1% | 23% | |
| 114 | 8% | 22% | |
| 115 | 6% | 14% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 118 | 4% | 7% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 98 | 6% | 90% | |
| 99 | 11% | 85% | |
| 100 | 16% | 74% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 58% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 57% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 56% | |
| 104 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 105 | 23% | 49% | |
| 106 | 6% | 26% | |
| 107 | 3% | 20% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 17% | |
| 109 | 2% | 16% | |
| 110 | 2% | 15% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 112 | 2% | 11% | |
| 113 | 5% | 9% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 91 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 98 | 6% | 89% | |
| 99 | 11% | 84% | |
| 100 | 16% | 73% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 57% | Last Result |
| 102 | 1.1% | 56% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 55% | |
| 104 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 105 | 23% | 48% | |
| 106 | 6% | 25% | |
| 107 | 3% | 19% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 109 | 2% | 15% | |
| 110 | 2% | 14% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 112 | 2% | 11% | |
| 113 | 5% | 9% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sentio
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 23–26 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 789
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.48%