Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 5 April–2 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.6% | 26.6–28.6% | 26.4–28.8% | 26.2–29.1% | 25.7–29.5% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 23.0% | 22.1–23.9% | 21.8–24.1% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.2–24.8% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.1% | 17.3–19.0% | 17.1–19.2% | 16.9–19.4% | 16.6–19.8% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.9–10.2% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.6–10.5% | 8.3–10.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.9–9.1% | 7.7–9.2% | 7.6–9.4% | 7.3–9.7% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.9–5.8% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.4–6.3% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.6–3.3% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 102 | 97–107 | 96–107 | 96–109 | 94–110 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 84 | 80–89 | 80–91 | 79–91 | 77–93 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 67 | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–72 | 61–74 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 35 | 33–38 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 30–40 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 31 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 27–36 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–18 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 96 | 4% | 98% | |
| 97 | 6% | 94% | |
| 98 | 4% | 88% | |
| 99 | 7% | 84% | |
| 100 | 17% | 77% | Last Result |
| 101 | 6% | 60% | |
| 102 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 103 | 15% | 48% | |
| 104 | 10% | 32% | |
| 105 | 5% | 22% | |
| 106 | 4% | 17% | |
| 107 | 8% | 12% | |
| 108 | 2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 2% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98% | |
| 80 | 7% | 96% | |
| 81 | 9% | 89% | |
| 82 | 9% | 81% | |
| 83 | 13% | 72% | |
| 84 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 85 | 10% | 48% | |
| 86 | 9% | 38% | |
| 87 | 8% | 29% | |
| 88 | 8% | 21% | |
| 89 | 5% | 14% | |
| 90 | 3% | 8% | |
| 91 | 3% | 5% | |
| 92 | 2% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 6% | 96% | |
| 64 | 10% | 90% | |
| 65 | 13% | 80% | |
| 66 | 12% | 68% | |
| 67 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 68 | 15% | 40% | |
| 69 | 8% | 25% | |
| 70 | 7% | 17% | |
| 71 | 4% | 10% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 5% | 98% | |
| 33 | 10% | 93% | |
| 34 | 17% | 83% | |
| 35 | 23% | 66% | Median |
| 36 | 20% | 43% | |
| 37 | 13% | 24% | |
| 38 | 6% | 10% | |
| 39 | 3% | 5% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 7% | 98% | |
| 29 | 12% | 91% | |
| 30 | 18% | 79% | |
| 31 | 19% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 32 | 20% | 42% | |
| 33 | 11% | 22% | |
| 34 | 7% | 10% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 21% | 96% | |
| 19 | 22% | 75% | |
| 20 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 21 | 18% | 30% | |
| 22 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 62% | |
| 2 | 0% | 62% | |
| 3 | 0% | 62% | |
| 4 | 0% | 62% | |
| 5 | 0% | 62% | |
| 6 | 0% | 62% | |
| 7 | 0% | 62% | |
| 8 | 0% | 62% | |
| 9 | 0% | 62% | |
| 10 | 0% | 62% | |
| 11 | 0% | 62% | |
| 12 | 0% | 62% | |
| 13 | 0% | 62% | |
| 14 | 0% | 62% | |
| 15 | 39% | 62% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 23% | Last Result |
| 17 | 6% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 216 | 100% | 211–226 | 210–227 | 209–228 | 207–230 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 185 | 99.9% | 180–194 | 179–195 | 178–196 | 177–199 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 178 | 72% | 170–184 | 170–185 | 169–186 | 166–187 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 171 | 28% | 165–179 | 164–179 | 163–180 | 162–183 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 151 | 0% | 146–159 | 145–159 | 144–160 | 143–163 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 148 | 0% | 139–153 | 137–154 | 136–155 | 134–157 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 144 | 0% | 135–149 | 133–151 | 133–151 | 130–153 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 136 | 0% | 132–143 | 131–144 | 130–146 | 128–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 135 | 0% | 130–141 | 129–143 | 128–144 | 126–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 135 | 0% | 130–141 | 129–143 | 128–144 | 126–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 115 | 0% | 111–122 | 110–123 | 109–124 | 108–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 115 | 0% | 111–122 | 110–123 | 109–124 | 108–126 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 113 | 0% | 104–119 | 101–119 | 101–120 | 98–122 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 208 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 209 | 2% | 98% | |
| 210 | 3% | 96% | |
| 211 | 8% | 93% | |
| 212 | 7% | 85% | |
| 213 | 7% | 77% | |
| 214 | 7% | 71% | |
| 215 | 10% | 64% | |
| 216 | 9% | 54% | |
| 217 | 3% | 45% | Median |
| 218 | 3% | 42% | |
| 219 | 3% | 40% | |
| 220 | 3% | 37% | |
| 221 | 3% | 34% | |
| 222 | 4% | 31% | |
| 223 | 5% | 27% | |
| 224 | 4% | 22% | |
| 225 | 5% | 18% | |
| 226 | 6% | 13% | |
| 227 | 3% | 7% | |
| 228 | 2% | 4% | |
| 229 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 231 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 177 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 178 | 2% | 98% | |
| 179 | 3% | 96% | |
| 180 | 4% | 93% | |
| 181 | 9% | 89% | |
| 182 | 4% | 80% | |
| 183 | 11% | 76% | |
| 184 | 9% | 65% | |
| 185 | 7% | 57% | |
| 186 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 187 | 5% | 44% | |
| 188 | 4% | 39% | |
| 189 | 2% | 35% | |
| 190 | 4% | 33% | |
| 191 | 5% | 28% | |
| 192 | 5% | 24% | |
| 193 | 7% | 18% | |
| 194 | 3% | 12% | |
| 195 | 4% | 8% | |
| 196 | 2% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 169 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 170 | 8% | 97% | |
| 171 | 6% | 89% | |
| 172 | 4% | 84% | |
| 173 | 4% | 79% | |
| 174 | 3% | 75% | |
| 175 | 2% | 72% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 70% | |
| 177 | 5% | 66% | |
| 178 | 12% | 61% | |
| 179 | 12% | 49% | |
| 180 | 8% | 37% | |
| 181 | 3% | 29% | |
| 182 | 4% | 26% | |
| 183 | 7% | 22% | Median |
| 184 | 6% | 15% | |
| 185 | 5% | 9% | |
| 186 | 3% | 4% | |
| 187 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 3% | 98% | |
| 164 | 5% | 96% | |
| 165 | 6% | 91% | |
| 166 | 7% | 85% | |
| 167 | 4% | 78% | |
| 168 | 3% | 74% | |
| 169 | 8% | 71% | |
| 170 | 12% | 63% | |
| 171 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 172 | 5% | 39% | |
| 173 | 4% | 34% | |
| 174 | 2% | 30% | |
| 175 | 3% | 28% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 25% | |
| 177 | 4% | 21% | |
| 178 | 6% | 16% | |
| 179 | 8% | 11% | |
| 180 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 98% | |
| 145 | 3% | 96% | |
| 146 | 11% | 93% | |
| 147 | 3% | 82% | |
| 148 | 6% | 79% | |
| 149 | 10% | 73% | |
| 150 | 12% | 63% | |
| 151 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 152 | 13% | 49% | |
| 153 | 6% | 36% | |
| 154 | 2% | 30% | |
| 155 | 2% | 28% | |
| 156 | 8% | 25% | |
| 157 | 4% | 17% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 159 | 9% | 13% | |
| 160 | 2% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 136 | 2% | 98% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 138 | 4% | 95% | |
| 139 | 3% | 91% | |
| 140 | 4% | 88% | |
| 141 | 5% | 83% | |
| 142 | 6% | 78% | |
| 143 | 4% | 73% | |
| 144 | 4% | 68% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 65% | |
| 146 | 5% | 62% | |
| 147 | 5% | 57% | |
| 148 | 5% | 52% | |
| 149 | 8% | 48% | |
| 150 | 6% | 40% | |
| 151 | 14% | 34% | |
| 152 | 6% | 20% | Median |
| 153 | 7% | 14% | |
| 154 | 2% | 7% | |
| 155 | 3% | 5% | |
| 156 | 2% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 132 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 133 | 3% | 98% | |
| 134 | 3% | 94% | |
| 135 | 5% | 91% | |
| 136 | 4% | 86% | |
| 137 | 6% | 82% | |
| 138 | 5% | 77% | |
| 139 | 2% | 71% | |
| 140 | 5% | 69% | |
| 141 | 4% | 64% | |
| 142 | 3% | 61% | |
| 143 | 7% | 57% | |
| 144 | 6% | 51% | |
| 145 | 9% | 45% | |
| 146 | 7% | 36% | |
| 147 | 11% | 29% | |
| 148 | 5% | 18% | Median |
| 149 | 3% | 13% | |
| 150 | 3% | 9% | |
| 151 | 5% | 6% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 129 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 131 | 4% | 97% | |
| 132 | 8% | 93% | |
| 133 | 4% | 86% | |
| 134 | 8% | 82% | |
| 135 | 8% | 74% | |
| 136 | 16% | 66% | |
| 137 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 138 | 8% | 42% | |
| 139 | 4% | 34% | |
| 140 | 6% | 29% | |
| 141 | 7% | 23% | |
| 142 | 6% | 17% | |
| 143 | 4% | 11% | |
| 144 | 3% | 7% | |
| 145 | 2% | 4% | |
| 146 | 2% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 3% | 97% | |
| 130 | 5% | 94% | |
| 131 | 7% | 89% | |
| 132 | 10% | 82% | |
| 133 | 13% | 72% | |
| 134 | 9% | 59% | |
| 135 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 136 | 8% | 45% | |
| 137 | 5% | 37% | |
| 138 | 4% | 31% | |
| 139 | 6% | 27% | |
| 140 | 6% | 21% | |
| 141 | 6% | 15% | |
| 142 | 4% | 9% | |
| 143 | 1.5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 144 | 2% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 3% | 97% | |
| 130 | 5% | 94% | |
| 131 | 7% | 89% | |
| 132 | 10% | 82% | |
| 133 | 13% | 72% | |
| 134 | 9% | 59% | |
| 135 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 136 | 8% | 45% | |
| 137 | 5% | 37% | |
| 138 | 4% | 31% | |
| 139 | 6% | 27% | |
| 140 | 6% | 21% | |
| 141 | 6% | 15% | |
| 142 | 4% | 9% | |
| 143 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 144 | 2% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 110 | 3% | 96% | |
| 111 | 9% | 93% | |
| 112 | 7% | 84% | |
| 113 | 10% | 77% | |
| 114 | 9% | 67% | |
| 115 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 116 | 8% | 47% | |
| 117 | 7% | 39% | |
| 118 | 6% | 32% | |
| 119 | 7% | 25% | |
| 120 | 5% | 18% | |
| 121 | 3% | 14% | Last Result |
| 122 | 5% | 11% | |
| 123 | 2% | 5% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 110 | 3% | 96% | |
| 111 | 9% | 93% | |
| 112 | 7% | 84% | |
| 113 | 10% | 77% | |
| 114 | 9% | 67% | |
| 115 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 116 | 8% | 47% | |
| 117 | 7% | 39% | |
| 118 | 6% | 32% | |
| 119 | 7% | 25% | |
| 120 | 5% | 18% | |
| 121 | 3% | 14% | |
| 122 | 5% | 11% | |
| 123 | 2% | 5% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 101 | 3% | 98% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 103 | 3% | 94% | |
| 104 | 10% | 90% | |
| 105 | 3% | 80% | |
| 106 | 4% | 78% | |
| 107 | 8% | 74% | |
| 108 | 2% | 66% | |
| 109 | 2% | 64% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 62% | |
| 111 | 2% | 61% | |
| 112 | 6% | 59% | |
| 113 | 4% | 53% | |
| 114 | 7% | 49% | |
| 115 | 11% | 42% | |
| 116 | 9% | 31% | Last Result |
| 117 | 5% | 22% | Median |
| 118 | 8% | 18% | |
| 119 | 5% | 10% | |
| 120 | 3% | 5% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 5 April–2 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 3654
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.84%