Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 3 May–6 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.1% | 25.3–26.9% | 25.1–27.1% | 24.9–27.3% | 24.5–27.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 22.6% | 21.8–23.4% | 21.6–23.6% | 21.4–23.8% | 21.1–24.2% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.2% | 18.5–20.0% | 18.3–20.2% | 18.1–20.3% | 17.8–20.7% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.1–10.2% | 8.9–10.3% | 8.8–10.5% | 8.6–10.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.9–10.0% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.6–10.3% | 8.4–10.5% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.9–5.7% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9–4.6% | 3.7–4.7% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.5–5.0% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.3% | 2.0–2.6% | 2.0–2.7% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 95 | 92–100 | 91–101 | 90–102 | 89–103 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 82 | 79–86 | 79–87 | 78–88 | 76–90 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 70 | 67–73 | 66–74 | 66–75 | 65–77 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 35 | 33–37 | 33–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 34 | 32–36 | 32–37 | 31–37 | 30–39 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–18 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 91 | 4% | 97% | |
| 92 | 7% | 92% | |
| 93 | 14% | 85% | |
| 94 | 13% | 72% | |
| 95 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 96 | 11% | 45% | |
| 97 | 9% | 34% | |
| 98 | 7% | 25% | |
| 99 | 7% | 18% | |
| 100 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 101 | 3% | 6% | |
| 102 | 2% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 78 | 2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 7% | 96% | |
| 80 | 11% | 89% | |
| 81 | 17% | 78% | |
| 82 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 83 | 11% | 44% | |
| 84 | 11% | 34% | |
| 85 | 8% | 22% | |
| 86 | 5% | 14% | |
| 87 | 5% | 8% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 4% | 98% | |
| 67 | 10% | 94% | |
| 68 | 12% | 83% | |
| 69 | 13% | 72% | |
| 70 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 42% | |
| 72 | 14% | 29% | |
| 73 | 6% | 16% | |
| 74 | 5% | 10% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 12% | 96% | |
| 34 | 20% | 84% | |
| 35 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 42% | |
| 37 | 13% | 21% | |
| 38 | 5% | 7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 32 | 8% | 96% | |
| 33 | 20% | 88% | |
| 34 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 35 | 19% | 40% | |
| 36 | 13% | 21% | |
| 37 | 6% | 9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 16% | 95% | |
| 19 | 32% | 80% | Median |
| 20 | 27% | 48% | |
| 21 | 15% | 20% | |
| 22 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 23 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 77% | |
| 2 | 0% | 77% | |
| 3 | 0% | 77% | |
| 4 | 0% | 77% | |
| 5 | 0% | 77% | |
| 6 | 0% | 77% | |
| 7 | 0% | 77% | |
| 8 | 0% | 77% | |
| 9 | 0% | 77% | |
| 10 | 0% | 77% | |
| 11 | 0% | 77% | |
| 12 | 0% | 77% | |
| 13 | 0% | 77% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 77% | |
| 15 | 39% | 76% | Median |
| 16 | 26% | 37% | Last Result |
| 17 | 9% | 11% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 211 | 100% | 208–220 | 206–222 | 205–222 | 204–225 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 177 | 84% | 173–186 | 172–186 | 171–187 | 170–190 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 178 | 76% | 170–182 | 170–182 | 167–183 | 166–185 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 171 | 24% | 167–179 | 167–179 | 166–182 | 164–183 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 152 | 0% | 148–159 | 147–160 | 147–161 | 145–164 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 144 | 0% | 136–147 | 134–149 | 132–149 | 130–151 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 143 | 0% | 134–147 | 133–148 | 131–148 | 130–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 136 | 0% | 132–141 | 131–142 | 130–144 | 129–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 136 | 0% | 132–141 | 131–142 | 130–144 | 129–146 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 130 | 0% | 126–136 | 126–137 | 125–139 | 123–140 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 116 | 0% | 113–121 | 112–123 | 111–124 | 110–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 116 | 0% | 113–121 | 112–123 | 111–124 | 110–126 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 109 | 0% | 99–113 | 97–114 | 96–114 | 94–116 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 205 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 206 | 3% | 97% | |
| 207 | 3% | 94% | |
| 208 | 11% | 90% | |
| 209 | 15% | 79% | |
| 210 | 10% | 64% | |
| 211 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 212 | 14% | 49% | |
| 213 | 7% | 34% | |
| 214 | 3% | 28% | |
| 215 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 216 | 1.2% | 23% | |
| 217 | 2% | 22% | |
| 218 | 5% | 20% | |
| 219 | 2% | 15% | |
| 220 | 4% | 13% | |
| 221 | 3% | 9% | |
| 222 | 4% | 6% | |
| 223 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 172 | 2% | 96% | |
| 173 | 6% | 94% | |
| 174 | 5% | 89% | |
| 175 | 16% | 84% | Majority |
| 176 | 11% | 68% | |
| 177 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 178 | 13% | 44% | |
| 179 | 2% | 31% | |
| 180 | 4% | 28% | |
| 181 | 3% | 24% | |
| 182 | 2% | 21% | |
| 183 | 2% | 19% | |
| 184 | 5% | 17% | |
| 185 | 2% | 12% | |
| 186 | 7% | 10% | |
| 187 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 170 | 8% | 95% | |
| 171 | 3% | 87% | |
| 172 | 4% | 85% | |
| 173 | 2% | 81% | |
| 174 | 4% | 79% | |
| 175 | 6% | 76% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 70% | |
| 177 | 14% | 64% | |
| 178 | 6% | 50% | |
| 179 | 16% | 44% | Median |
| 180 | 9% | 29% | |
| 181 | 10% | 20% | |
| 182 | 5% | 10% | |
| 183 | 3% | 5% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 166 | 3% | 98% | |
| 167 | 5% | 95% | |
| 168 | 10% | 90% | |
| 169 | 9% | 80% | |
| 170 | 16% | 71% | |
| 171 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 172 | 14% | 50% | |
| 173 | 5% | 36% | |
| 174 | 6% | 30% | |
| 175 | 4% | 24% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 21% | |
| 177 | 4% | 19% | |
| 178 | 3% | 15% | |
| 179 | 8% | 13% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 147 | 5% | 98% | |
| 148 | 5% | 93% | |
| 149 | 11% | 88% | |
| 150 | 9% | 77% | |
| 151 | 12% | 68% | |
| 152 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 153 | 11% | 45% | |
| 154 | 7% | 34% | |
| 155 | 4% | 26% | |
| 156 | 5% | 22% | |
| 157 | 3% | 18% | |
| 158 | 5% | 15% | |
| 159 | 4% | 10% | |
| 160 | 2% | 6% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 133 | 2% | 97% | |
| 134 | 3% | 96% | |
| 135 | 2% | 93% | |
| 136 | 8% | 91% | |
| 137 | 2% | 83% | |
| 138 | 2% | 81% | |
| 139 | 3% | 80% | |
| 140 | 2% | 76% | |
| 141 | 4% | 74% | |
| 142 | 8% | 70% | |
| 143 | 6% | 62% | |
| 144 | 15% | 56% | Last Result |
| 145 | 10% | 41% | Median |
| 146 | 12% | 31% | |
| 147 | 9% | 19% | |
| 148 | 4% | 9% | |
| 149 | 3% | 6% | |
| 150 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 132 | 2% | 97% | |
| 133 | 4% | 95% | |
| 134 | 4% | 91% | |
| 135 | 4% | 87% | |
| 136 | 2% | 83% | |
| 137 | 4% | 82% | |
| 138 | 1.5% | 78% | |
| 139 | 2% | 77% | |
| 140 | 2% | 75% | |
| 141 | 8% | 72% | |
| 142 | 10% | 65% | |
| 143 | 12% | 54% | |
| 144 | 8% | 43% | Median |
| 145 | 16% | 34% | |
| 146 | 6% | 19% | |
| 147 | 6% | 13% | |
| 148 | 4% | 7% | |
| 149 | 2% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 131 | 4% | 97% | |
| 132 | 6% | 93% | |
| 133 | 11% | 87% | |
| 134 | 9% | 76% | |
| 135 | 13% | 67% | Median |
| 136 | 13% | 54% | |
| 137 | 7% | 41% | |
| 138 | 8% | 34% | |
| 139 | 8% | 26% | |
| 140 | 5% | 19% | |
| 141 | 6% | 14% | |
| 142 | 3% | 8% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 144 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 131 | 4% | 97% | |
| 132 | 6% | 93% | |
| 133 | 11% | 87% | |
| 134 | 9% | 76% | |
| 135 | 13% | 67% | Median |
| 136 | 13% | 54% | |
| 137 | 7% | 41% | |
| 138 | 8% | 34% | |
| 139 | 8% | 26% | |
| 140 | 5% | 19% | |
| 141 | 6% | 14% | |
| 142 | 3% | 8% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 125 | 3% | 98% | |
| 126 | 6% | 95% | |
| 127 | 8% | 89% | |
| 128 | 11% | 81% | Last Result |
| 129 | 14% | 70% | |
| 130 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 131 | 10% | 45% | |
| 132 | 8% | 35% | |
| 133 | 4% | 27% | |
| 134 | 5% | 23% | |
| 135 | 3% | 17% | |
| 136 | 8% | 14% | |
| 137 | 2% | 6% | |
| 138 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 139 | 2% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 112 | 2% | 97% | |
| 113 | 9% | 95% | |
| 114 | 13% | 85% | |
| 115 | 10% | 72% | |
| 116 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 117 | 12% | 49% | |
| 118 | 8% | 37% | |
| 119 | 8% | 30% | |
| 120 | 9% | 21% | |
| 121 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 122 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 112 | 2% | 97% | |
| 113 | 9% | 95% | |
| 114 | 13% | 85% | |
| 115 | 10% | 72% | |
| 116 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 117 | 12% | 49% | |
| 118 | 8% | 37% | |
| 119 | 8% | 30% | |
| 120 | 9% | 21% | |
| 121 | 5% | 12% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 97 | 2% | 97% | |
| 98 | 3% | 95% | |
| 99 | 5% | 92% | |
| 100 | 4% | 87% | |
| 101 | 3% | 83% | |
| 102 | 2% | 80% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 78% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 77% | |
| 105 | 2% | 76% | |
| 106 | 2% | 74% | |
| 107 | 6% | 73% | |
| 108 | 10% | 66% | |
| 109 | 12% | 56% | |
| 110 | 13% | 44% | Median |
| 111 | 11% | 31% | |
| 112 | 9% | 21% | |
| 113 | 6% | 12% | |
| 114 | 4% | 5% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 3 May–6 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 4925
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.08%