Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 21–27 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 25.4% | 24.3–26.6% | 24.0–26.9% | 23.7–27.2% | 23.2–27.8% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.7% | 20.7–22.8% | 20.4–23.2% | 20.1–23.4% | 19.6–24.0% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 21.3% | 20.3–22.4% | 20.0–22.7% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.2–23.5% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 11.5% | 10.7–12.3% | 10.4–12.6% | 10.2–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.2–8.6% | 7.0–8.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.0% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 94 | 91–99 | 89–100 | 88–101 | 85–105 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 81 | 77–86 | 75–87 | 75–88 | 73–90 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 80 | 76–84 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 72–88 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 43 | 40–46 | 39–47 | 38–48 | 37–50 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 29 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 0–23 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–14 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 3% | 97% | |
| 90 | 4% | 94% | |
| 91 | 5% | 90% | |
| 92 | 4% | 85% | |
| 93 | 14% | 81% | |
| 94 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 95 | 13% | 49% | |
| 96 | 4% | 36% | |
| 97 | 6% | 32% | |
| 98 | 7% | 26% | |
| 99 | 9% | 18% | |
| 100 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 101 | 2% | 4% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 2% | 95% | |
| 77 | 8% | 93% | |
| 78 | 4% | 85% | |
| 79 | 14% | 81% | |
| 80 | 6% | 67% | |
| 81 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 82 | 11% | 44% | |
| 83 | 8% | 33% | |
| 84 | 8% | 25% | |
| 85 | 5% | 17% | |
| 86 | 4% | 12% | |
| 87 | 4% | 8% | |
| 88 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 74 | 3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 4% | 95% | |
| 76 | 6% | 90% | |
| 77 | 7% | 84% | |
| 78 | 9% | 77% | |
| 79 | 16% | 68% | |
| 80 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 81 | 10% | 43% | |
| 82 | 11% | 33% | |
| 83 | 11% | 22% | |
| 84 | 4% | 12% | |
| 85 | 3% | 7% | |
| 86 | 3% | 4% | |
| 87 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 10% | 92% | |
| 41 | 7% | 82% | |
| 42 | 22% | 75% | |
| 43 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 44 | 9% | 40% | |
| 45 | 17% | 32% | |
| 46 | 6% | 14% | |
| 47 | 5% | 8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 14% | 94% | |
| 28 | 8% | 80% | |
| 29 | 22% | 72% | Median |
| 30 | 18% | 50% | |
| 31 | 16% | 32% | Last Result |
| 32 | 8% | 16% | |
| 33 | 6% | 9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 16 | 6% | 98% | |
| 17 | 13% | 92% | |
| 18 | 27% | 80% | |
| 19 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 33% | |
| 21 | 14% | 18% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 23 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 12% | |
| 8 | 0% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0% | 12% | |
| 10 | 0% | 12% | |
| 11 | 0% | 12% | |
| 12 | 0% | 12% | |
| 13 | 0% | 12% | |
| 14 | 2% | 12% | |
| 15 | 7% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 206 | 100% | 199–211 | 197–213 | 195–214 | 192–219 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 180 | 89% | 174–185 | 172–187 | 170–188 | 166–190 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 176 | 65% | 170–182 | 168–183 | 167–185 | 164–189 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 169 | 11% | 164–175 | 162–177 | 161–179 | 159–183 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 161 | 0.2% | 156–167 | 154–168 | 153–169 | 149–172 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 139 | 0% | 134–146 | 133–149 | 132–151 | 129–153 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 138 | 0% | 132–143 | 131–145 | 130–146 | 127–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 129 | 0% | 124–134 | 122–136 | 120–137 | 116–139 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 129 | 0% | 124–134 | 122–136 | 120–137 | 116–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 125 | 0% | 121–133 | 120–135 | 118–136 | 116–141 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 111 | 0% | 106–116 | 104–117 | 103–118 | 101–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 111 | 0% | 106–116 | 104–117 | 103–118 | 101–120 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 95 | 0% | 92–105 | 90–107 | 89–109 | 88–111 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 189 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 195 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 196 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 197 | 2% | 96% | |
| 198 | 2% | 94% | |
| 199 | 4% | 92% | |
| 200 | 2% | 88% | |
| 201 | 3% | 86% | Last Result |
| 202 | 3% | 82% | |
| 203 | 5% | 79% | |
| 204 | 13% | 74% | Median |
| 205 | 6% | 61% | |
| 206 | 14% | 56% | |
| 207 | 5% | 42% | |
| 208 | 8% | 36% | |
| 209 | 7% | 28% | |
| 210 | 7% | 21% | |
| 211 | 6% | 14% | |
| 212 | 3% | 8% | |
| 213 | 2% | 5% | |
| 214 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 215 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 216 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 217 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 171 | 2% | 97% | |
| 172 | 2% | 95% | |
| 173 | 2% | 94% | |
| 174 | 3% | 92% | |
| 175 | 4% | 89% | Majority |
| 176 | 8% | 84% | |
| 177 | 6% | 76% | |
| 178 | 8% | 70% | |
| 179 | 6% | 62% | |
| 180 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 181 | 12% | 47% | |
| 182 | 8% | 36% | |
| 183 | 7% | 27% | |
| 184 | 8% | 20% | |
| 185 | 3% | 13% | |
| 186 | 4% | 10% | |
| 187 | 4% | 6% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 168 | 2% | 97% | |
| 169 | 2% | 95% | |
| 170 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 171 | 4% | 88% | |
| 172 | 3% | 85% | |
| 173 | 6% | 82% | |
| 174 | 10% | 75% | |
| 175 | 12% | 65% | Median, Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 53% | |
| 177 | 6% | 43% | |
| 178 | 5% | 36% | |
| 179 | 7% | 31% | |
| 180 | 5% | 25% | |
| 181 | 7% | 19% | |
| 182 | 5% | 12% | |
| 183 | 2% | 7% | |
| 184 | 2% | 5% | |
| 185 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 162 | 4% | 97% | |
| 163 | 4% | 94% | |
| 164 | 3% | 90% | |
| 165 | 8% | 87% | |
| 166 | 7% | 80% | Median |
| 167 | 8% | 73% | |
| 168 | 12% | 64% | |
| 169 | 9% | 53% | |
| 170 | 6% | 44% | |
| 171 | 8% | 38% | |
| 172 | 6% | 30% | |
| 173 | 8% | 24% | |
| 174 | 4% | 16% | |
| 175 | 3% | 11% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 8% | |
| 177 | 2% | 6% | |
| 178 | 2% | 5% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 153 | 2% | 98% | |
| 154 | 2% | 95% | |
| 155 | 3% | 93% | |
| 156 | 3% | 90% | |
| 157 | 6% | 87% | |
| 158 | 10% | 81% | |
| 159 | 4% | 71% | |
| 160 | 12% | 67% | |
| 161 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 162 | 5% | 45% | |
| 163 | 11% | 41% | |
| 164 | 10% | 29% | |
| 165 | 5% | 20% | |
| 166 | 4% | 15% | |
| 167 | 5% | 11% | |
| 168 | 3% | 6% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 3% | 96% | |
| 134 | 3% | 93% | |
| 135 | 6% | 90% | |
| 136 | 10% | 84% | |
| 137 | 10% | 74% | Median |
| 138 | 10% | 65% | |
| 139 | 7% | 55% | |
| 140 | 12% | 48% | |
| 141 | 5% | 36% | |
| 142 | 7% | 32% | |
| 143 | 4% | 24% | |
| 144 | 5% | 21% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 16% | |
| 146 | 2% | 11% | |
| 147 | 2% | 9% | |
| 148 | 2% | 7% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 151 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 131 | 4% | 96% | |
| 132 | 3% | 92% | |
| 133 | 5% | 90% | |
| 134 | 4% | 85% | |
| 135 | 6% | 81% | |
| 136 | 11% | 75% | |
| 137 | 10% | 64% | Median |
| 138 | 10% | 53% | |
| 139 | 7% | 43% | |
| 140 | 12% | 36% | |
| 141 | 5% | 25% | |
| 142 | 7% | 20% | |
| 143 | 3% | 13% | |
| 144 | 4% | 10% | |
| 145 | 2% | 5% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | |
| 124 | 3% | 92% | |
| 125 | 7% | 89% | |
| 126 | 7% | 82% | |
| 127 | 3% | 75% | |
| 128 | 8% | 71% | |
| 129 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 130 | 8% | 50% | |
| 131 | 10% | 42% | |
| 132 | 6% | 32% | |
| 133 | 11% | 26% | |
| 134 | 7% | 15% | |
| 135 | 3% | 8% | |
| 136 | 3% | 5% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 124 | 3% | 92% | |
| 125 | 7% | 89% | |
| 126 | 7% | 82% | |
| 127 | 3% | 75% | |
| 128 | 8% | 71% | |
| 129 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 130 | 8% | 50% | |
| 131 | 10% | 42% | |
| 132 | 6% | 32% | |
| 133 | 11% | 26% | |
| 134 | 7% | 15% | |
| 135 | 3% | 8% | |
| 136 | 3% | 5% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 119 | 2% | 97% | |
| 120 | 4% | 96% | |
| 121 | 4% | 92% | |
| 122 | 5% | 88% | |
| 123 | 12% | 82% | Median |
| 124 | 9% | 71% | |
| 125 | 12% | 61% | |
| 126 | 6% | 50% | |
| 127 | 10% | 44% | |
| 128 | 8% | 34% | |
| 129 | 4% | 26% | |
| 130 | 4% | 21% | |
| 131 | 3% | 17% | |
| 132 | 2% | 14% | |
| 133 | 2% | 12% | |
| 134 | 4% | 10% | |
| 135 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 136 | 2% | 5% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 3% | 94% | |
| 106 | 5% | 91% | |
| 107 | 5% | 86% | |
| 108 | 8% | 81% | |
| 109 | 8% | 73% | |
| 110 | 10% | 65% | Median |
| 111 | 13% | 55% | |
| 112 | 10% | 41% | |
| 113 | 8% | 32% | |
| 114 | 6% | 24% | |
| 115 | 7% | 18% | |
| 116 | 5% | 11% | |
| 117 | 2% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 1.0% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 3% | 94% | |
| 106 | 5% | 91% | |
| 107 | 5% | 86% | |
| 108 | 8% | 81% | |
| 109 | 8% | 73% | |
| 110 | 10% | 65% | Median |
| 111 | 13% | 55% | |
| 112 | 10% | 41% | |
| 113 | 8% | 32% | |
| 114 | 6% | 24% | |
| 115 | 7% | 18% | |
| 116 | 5% | 11% | |
| 117 | 2% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 2% | 96% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 3% | 93% | |
| 93 | 14% | 89% | |
| 94 | 16% | 76% | Median |
| 95 | 12% | 60% | |
| 96 | 4% | 48% | |
| 97 | 6% | 44% | |
| 98 | 7% | 38% | |
| 99 | 9% | 30% | |
| 100 | 6% | 22% | |
| 101 | 2% | 16% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 104 | 2% | 12% | |
| 105 | 4% | 10% | |
| 106 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 21–27 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2408
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.79%