Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 23–28 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 23.4% | 22.3–24.6% | 21.9–25.0% | 21.7–25.3% | 21.1–25.8% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 22.1% | 21.0–23.3% | 20.7–23.6% | 20.4–23.9% | 19.9–24.5% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.2% | 17.2–19.3% | 16.9–19.6% | 16.6–19.9% | 16.1–20.4% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.5–12.2% | 10.2–12.5% | 10.0–12.7% | 9.6–13.2% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.8–11.5% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.4–12.0% | 9.0–12.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1–7.5% | 6.0–7.8% | 5.8–8.0% | 5.5–8.3% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.0% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 89 | 84–93 | 82–93 | 81–94 | 78–96 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 83 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 76–90 | 74–92 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 68 | 64–73 | 63–74 | 62–75 | 60–77 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 42 | 39–45 | 38–47 | 37–48 | 36–50 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 39 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 | 33–46 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 26 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 22–30 | 21–31 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98% | |
| 82 | 2% | 96% | |
| 83 | 2% | 94% | |
| 84 | 5% | 92% | |
| 85 | 3% | 87% | |
| 86 | 6% | 84% | |
| 87 | 5% | 78% | |
| 88 | 13% | 73% | |
| 89 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 90 | 14% | 48% | |
| 91 | 13% | 34% | |
| 92 | 10% | 22% | |
| 93 | 7% | 12% | |
| 94 | 3% | 5% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98% | |
| 77 | 4% | 97% | |
| 78 | 5% | 92% | |
| 79 | 5% | 88% | |
| 80 | 7% | 83% | |
| 81 | 7% | 77% | |
| 82 | 19% | 70% | |
| 83 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 84 | 10% | 42% | |
| 85 | 12% | 32% | |
| 86 | 6% | 21% | |
| 87 | 3% | 15% | |
| 88 | 6% | 12% | |
| 89 | 3% | 6% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 96% | |
| 64 | 4% | 93% | |
| 65 | 9% | 89% | |
| 66 | 9% | 80% | |
| 67 | 16% | 71% | |
| 68 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 69 | 15% | 47% | |
| 70 | 6% | 31% | |
| 71 | 8% | 25% | |
| 72 | 5% | 16% | |
| 73 | 4% | 12% | |
| 74 | 4% | 7% | |
| 75 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 5% | 97% | |
| 39 | 10% | 93% | |
| 40 | 12% | 83% | |
| 41 | 15% | 71% | |
| 42 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 43 | 16% | 36% | |
| 44 | 7% | 19% | |
| 45 | 4% | 13% | |
| 46 | 2% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 95% | |
| 37 | 8% | 90% | |
| 38 | 14% | 82% | |
| 39 | 19% | 68% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 49% | |
| 41 | 14% | 35% | |
| 42 | 8% | 21% | |
| 43 | 7% | 13% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 6% | 98% | Last Result |
| 23 | 11% | 92% | |
| 24 | 11% | 82% | |
| 25 | 16% | 71% | |
| 26 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 27 | 14% | 33% | |
| 28 | 11% | 18% | |
| 29 | 4% | 8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 7% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 15 | 5% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 212 | 100% | 204–217 | 202–218 | 200–220 | 196–221 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 177 | 73% | 171–182 | 169–184 | 166–185 | 163–188 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 172 | 27% | 167–178 | 165–180 | 164–183 | 161–186 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 173 | 29% | 165–176 | 163–178 | 161–179 | 157–181 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 151 | 0% | 145–157 | 144–158 | 142–159 | 139–162 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 149 | 0% | 143–155 | 142–157 | 141–159 | 137–163 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 148 | 0% | 142–154 | 141–155 | 139–156 | 136–159 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 130 | 0% | 125–137 | 123–140 | 122–142 | 119–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 132 | 0% | 126–137 | 124–140 | 123–141 | 120–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 131 | 0% | 125–135 | 123–137 | 122–139 | 119–141 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 123 | 0% | 118–129 | 116–132 | 115–134 | 113–138 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 122 | 0% | 117–128 | 116–129 | 114–130 | 112–132 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 90 | 0% | 84–94 | 82–99 | 81–101 | 78–104 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 199 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 201 | 0.9% | 97% | Last Result |
| 202 | 2% | 97% | |
| 203 | 2% | 94% | |
| 204 | 3% | 92% | |
| 205 | 2% | 90% | |
| 206 | 3% | 88% | |
| 207 | 4% | 84% | |
| 208 | 6% | 80% | |
| 209 | 7% | 74% | |
| 210 | 4% | 67% | |
| 211 | 4% | 62% | Median |
| 212 | 11% | 59% | |
| 213 | 17% | 48% | |
| 214 | 4% | 30% | |
| 215 | 4% | 26% | |
| 216 | 12% | 23% | |
| 217 | 5% | 10% | |
| 218 | 2% | 6% | |
| 219 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 220 | 2% | 3% | |
| 221 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 169 | 3% | 95% | |
| 170 | 2% | 92% | |
| 171 | 3% | 90% | |
| 172 | 5% | 88% | |
| 173 | 6% | 83% | |
| 174 | 4% | 77% | |
| 175 | 11% | 73% | Majority |
| 176 | 9% | 62% | |
| 177 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 178 | 7% | 46% | |
| 179 | 13% | 39% | |
| 180 | 3% | 26% | |
| 181 | 9% | 23% | |
| 182 | 6% | 14% | |
| 183 | 2% | 8% | |
| 184 | 2% | 6% | |
| 185 | 2% | 4% | |
| 186 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 2% | 96% | |
| 166 | 2% | 94% | |
| 167 | 6% | 92% | |
| 168 | 9% | 86% | |
| 169 | 3% | 77% | |
| 170 | 13% | 74% | Median |
| 171 | 7% | 61% | |
| 172 | 7% | 54% | |
| 173 | 9% | 47% | |
| 174 | 11% | 38% | |
| 175 | 4% | 27% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 23% | |
| 177 | 5% | 17% | |
| 178 | 3% | 12% | |
| 179 | 2% | 10% | |
| 180 | 3% | 8% | |
| 181 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 163 | 2% | 97% | |
| 164 | 3% | 95% | |
| 165 | 4% | 92% | |
| 166 | 4% | 88% | |
| 167 | 3% | 84% | |
| 168 | 3% | 81% | |
| 169 | 5% | 78% | |
| 170 | 7% | 73% | Last Result |
| 171 | 6% | 66% | |
| 172 | 9% | 60% | Median |
| 173 | 9% | 51% | |
| 174 | 12% | 42% | |
| 175 | 11% | 29% | Majority |
| 176 | 9% | 18% | |
| 177 | 3% | 9% | |
| 178 | 3% | 7% | |
| 179 | 2% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 142 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 143 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 144 | 3% | 95% | |
| 145 | 4% | 93% | |
| 146 | 3% | 89% | |
| 147 | 4% | 86% | |
| 148 | 6% | 82% | |
| 149 | 13% | 76% | |
| 150 | 4% | 62% | |
| 151 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 152 | 4% | 44% | |
| 153 | 11% | 40% | |
| 154 | 7% | 30% | |
| 155 | 6% | 23% | |
| 156 | 6% | 17% | |
| 157 | 5% | 11% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 159 | 2% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 141 | 2% | 98% | |
| 142 | 4% | 96% | |
| 143 | 5% | 92% | Last Result |
| 144 | 4% | 87% | |
| 145 | 4% | 83% | |
| 146 | 6% | 79% | |
| 147 | 10% | 73% | |
| 148 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 149 | 8% | 51% | |
| 150 | 6% | 44% | |
| 151 | 6% | 38% | |
| 152 | 6% | 31% | |
| 153 | 7% | 25% | |
| 154 | 6% | 18% | |
| 155 | 3% | 12% | |
| 156 | 2% | 9% | |
| 157 | 2% | 6% | |
| 158 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 140 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 141 | 2% | 96% | |
| 142 | 5% | 94% | |
| 143 | 6% | 89% | |
| 144 | 5% | 83% | |
| 145 | 5% | 78% | |
| 146 | 7% | 73% | |
| 147 | 10% | 67% | |
| 148 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 149 | 8% | 45% | |
| 150 | 6% | 37% | |
| 151 | 6% | 31% | |
| 152 | 6% | 25% | |
| 153 | 7% | 19% | |
| 154 | 6% | 12% | |
| 155 | 3% | 6% | |
| 156 | 2% | 4% | |
| 157 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 96% | |
| 124 | 2% | 94% | |
| 125 | 5% | 91% | |
| 126 | 3% | 86% | |
| 127 | 11% | 83% | |
| 128 | 9% | 71% | Median |
| 129 | 9% | 63% | |
| 130 | 6% | 54% | |
| 131 | 15% | 48% | |
| 132 | 8% | 33% | |
| 133 | 3% | 26% | |
| 134 | 6% | 22% | |
| 135 | 2% | 16% | |
| 136 | 3% | 14% | |
| 137 | 2% | 11% | |
| 138 | 2% | 9% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 140 | 2% | 6% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 124 | 3% | 97% | |
| 125 | 2% | 94% | |
| 126 | 4% | 92% | |
| 127 | 5% | 88% | |
| 128 | 7% | 83% | |
| 129 | 8% | 77% | |
| 130 | 10% | 69% | |
| 131 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 132 | 9% | 50% | |
| 133 | 9% | 41% | |
| 134 | 4% | 31% | |
| 135 | 12% | 28% | |
| 136 | 3% | 15% | |
| 137 | 3% | 12% | |
| 138 | 3% | 10% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 140 | 2% | 5% | |
| 141 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 121 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 97% | |
| 124 | 3% | 95% | |
| 125 | 3% | 91% | |
| 126 | 5% | 88% | |
| 127 | 5% | 83% | |
| 128 | 7% | 78% | Last Result |
| 129 | 8% | 71% | |
| 130 | 10% | 63% | |
| 131 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 132 | 10% | 44% | |
| 133 | 9% | 35% | |
| 134 | 4% | 25% | |
| 135 | 12% | 22% | |
| 136 | 3% | 10% | |
| 137 | 2% | 7% | |
| 138 | 2% | 5% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 140 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 116 | 3% | 97% | |
| 117 | 3% | 94% | |
| 118 | 3% | 91% | |
| 119 | 4% | 88% | |
| 120 | 7% | 84% | |
| 121 | 14% | 77% | Last Result |
| 122 | 9% | 64% | Median |
| 123 | 10% | 55% | |
| 124 | 8% | 45% | |
| 125 | 5% | 37% | |
| 126 | 7% | 32% | |
| 127 | 6% | 25% | |
| 128 | 7% | 19% | |
| 129 | 3% | 12% | |
| 130 | 2% | 9% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 134 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 135 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 115 | 2% | 97% | |
| 116 | 3% | 95% | |
| 117 | 3% | 92% | |
| 118 | 4% | 89% | |
| 119 | 5% | 84% | |
| 120 | 8% | 80% | |
| 121 | 14% | 72% | |
| 122 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 123 | 10% | 48% | |
| 124 | 8% | 38% | |
| 125 | 5% | 30% | |
| 126 | 7% | 25% | |
| 127 | 6% | 19% | |
| 128 | 7% | 13% | |
| 129 | 2% | 6% | |
| 130 | 2% | 4% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98% | |
| 82 | 2% | 96% | |
| 83 | 2% | 95% | |
| 84 | 3% | 93% | |
| 85 | 3% | 90% | |
| 86 | 5% | 87% | |
| 87 | 4% | 82% | |
| 88 | 13% | 78% | |
| 89 | 12% | 65% | Median |
| 90 | 13% | 54% | |
| 91 | 13% | 40% | |
| 92 | 10% | 28% | |
| 93 | 7% | 18% | |
| 94 | 3% | 11% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 23–28 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2148
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.67%