Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 29 June–7 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 25.2% | 24.2–26.2% | 24.0–26.5% | 23.7–26.7% | 23.3–27.2% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.7% | 20.8–22.6% | 20.5–22.9% | 20.3–23.2% | 19.9–23.6% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.3% | 18.4–20.2% | 18.2–20.5% | 18.0–20.7% | 17.6–21.2% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.7–11.1% | 9.6–11.3% | 9.4–11.5% | 9.1–11.9% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.8–10.1% | 8.6–10.3% | 8.4–10.5% | 8.1–10.8% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6–6.7% | 5.4–6.8% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.3% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.1–3.9% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.7–4.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.1–3.9% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.7–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 94 | 90–99 | 89–100 | 88–101 | 86–103 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 82 | 78–86 | 76–87 | 75–88 | 73–89 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 73 | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 65–80 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 39 | 36–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 35 | 33–38 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 30–41 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 20–27 | 19–27 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 87 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 4% | 96% | |
| 90 | 6% | 92% | |
| 91 | 7% | 86% | |
| 92 | 9% | 79% | |
| 93 | 16% | 70% | |
| 94 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 95 | 8% | 42% | |
| 96 | 9% | 34% | |
| 97 | 6% | 24% | |
| 98 | 7% | 18% | |
| 99 | 5% | 11% | |
| 100 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 101 | 2% | 4% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 4% | 95% | |
| 78 | 4% | 91% | |
| 79 | 8% | 86% | |
| 80 | 11% | 78% | |
| 81 | 8% | 68% | |
| 82 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 83 | 19% | 45% | |
| 84 | 7% | 25% | |
| 85 | 9% | 19% | |
| 86 | 4% | 10% | |
| 87 | 3% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 5% | 95% | |
| 69 | 6% | 90% | |
| 70 | 7% | 84% | |
| 71 | 12% | 77% | |
| 72 | 11% | 65% | |
| 73 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 74 | 9% | 40% | |
| 75 | 17% | 31% | |
| 76 | 5% | 13% | |
| 77 | 5% | 9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 36 | 8% | 97% | |
| 37 | 12% | 89% | |
| 38 | 15% | 77% | |
| 39 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 40 | 22% | 48% | |
| 41 | 15% | 26% | |
| 42 | 6% | 11% | |
| 43 | 2% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 7% | 98% | |
| 33 | 12% | 91% | |
| 34 | 20% | 79% | |
| 35 | 24% | 59% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 35% | |
| 37 | 11% | 21% | |
| 38 | 6% | 10% | |
| 39 | 3% | 5% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 13% | 94% | |
| 22 | 16% | 81% | Last Result |
| 23 | 26% | 65% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 39% | |
| 25 | 13% | 23% | |
| 26 | 8% | 10% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 11% | |
| 5 | 0% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0% | 11% | |
| 11 | 0% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0% | 11% | |
| 13 | 0% | 11% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 15 | 8% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0% | 10% | |
| 10 | 0% | 10% | |
| 11 | 0% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0% | 10% | |
| 13 | 0% | 10% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 15 | 8% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 216 | 100% | 208–221 | 205–222 | 203–223 | 201–225 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 178 | 72% | 170–183 | 169–184 | 168–185 | 164–187 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 176 | 67% | 169–181 | 167–183 | 166–183 | 163–185 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 171 | 28% | 166–179 | 165–180 | 164–181 | 162–185 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 155 | 0% | 149–160 | 147–160 | 146–161 | 142–164 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 146 | 0% | 140–152 | 138–154 | 137–157 | 134–158 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 145 | 0% | 139–149 | 137–150 | 135–151 | 133–153 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 136 | 0% | 131–144 | 130–146 | 129–147 | 127–151 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 129 | 0% | 125–138 | 124–140 | 123–141 | 121–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 128 | 0% | 124–135 | 123–136 | 122–137 | 119–139 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 122 | 0% | 117–129 | 115–133 | 115–134 | 112–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 121 | 0% | 116–125 | 114–127 | 113–127 | 110–130 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 95 | 0% | 91–102 | 90–105 | 88–108 | 87–110 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 201 | 0.6% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 203 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 204 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 205 | 2% | 96% | |
| 206 | 2% | 94% | |
| 207 | 2% | 92% | |
| 208 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 209 | 3% | 89% | |
| 210 | 5% | 86% | |
| 211 | 3% | 81% | |
| 212 | 4% | 77% | |
| 213 | 3% | 74% | |
| 214 | 4% | 71% | |
| 215 | 6% | 66% | Median |
| 216 | 14% | 60% | |
| 217 | 14% | 46% | |
| 218 | 9% | 33% | |
| 219 | 7% | 24% | |
| 220 | 6% | 17% | |
| 221 | 5% | 11% | |
| 222 | 3% | 6% | |
| 223 | 2% | 4% | |
| 224 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 169 | 2% | 97% | |
| 170 | 5% | 95% | |
| 171 | 3% | 89% | |
| 172 | 3% | 86% | |
| 173 | 4% | 83% | |
| 174 | 7% | 79% | |
| 175 | 3% | 72% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 69% | |
| 177 | 7% | 63% | |
| 178 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 179 | 8% | 49% | |
| 180 | 6% | 42% | |
| 181 | 18% | 36% | |
| 182 | 5% | 17% | |
| 183 | 3% | 13% | |
| 184 | 6% | 10% | |
| 185 | 2% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 166 | 2% | 98% | |
| 167 | 2% | 96% | |
| 168 | 2% | 94% | |
| 169 | 2% | 92% | |
| 170 | 2% | 90% | Last Result |
| 171 | 5% | 88% | |
| 172 | 3% | 83% | |
| 173 | 8% | 80% | |
| 174 | 5% | 72% | |
| 175 | 3% | 67% | Majority |
| 176 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 177 | 12% | 49% | |
| 178 | 9% | 37% | |
| 179 | 4% | 28% | |
| 180 | 7% | 24% | |
| 181 | 9% | 17% | |
| 182 | 4% | 9% | |
| 183 | 3% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 185 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 165 | 6% | 97% | |
| 166 | 3% | 90% | |
| 167 | 5% | 87% | |
| 168 | 18% | 83% | Median |
| 169 | 6% | 64% | |
| 170 | 8% | 58% | |
| 171 | 6% | 51% | |
| 172 | 7% | 44% | |
| 173 | 7% | 37% | |
| 174 | 3% | 31% | |
| 175 | 7% | 28% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 21% | |
| 177 | 3% | 17% | |
| 178 | 3% | 14% | |
| 179 | 5% | 11% | |
| 180 | 2% | 5% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 146 | 2% | 98% | |
| 147 | 3% | 96% | |
| 148 | 2% | 93% | |
| 149 | 6% | 91% | |
| 150 | 3% | 85% | |
| 151 | 6% | 83% | |
| 152 | 8% | 76% | |
| 153 | 7% | 68% | |
| 154 | 6% | 61% | |
| 155 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 156 | 12% | 46% | |
| 157 | 8% | 35% | |
| 158 | 12% | 27% | |
| 159 | 4% | 15% | |
| 160 | 7% | 11% | |
| 161 | 2% | 4% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 137 | 3% | 98% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 139 | 2% | 94% | |
| 140 | 5% | 92% | |
| 141 | 4% | 87% | |
| 142 | 9% | 83% | |
| 143 | 5% | 74% | Last Result |
| 144 | 7% | 69% | Median |
| 145 | 6% | 62% | |
| 146 | 18% | 56% | |
| 147 | 5% | 38% | |
| 148 | 6% | 33% | |
| 149 | 11% | 27% | |
| 150 | 2% | 16% | |
| 151 | 2% | 14% | |
| 152 | 3% | 11% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 154 | 3% | 7% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 158 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 135 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 136 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 137 | 4% | 96% | |
| 138 | 2% | 92% | |
| 139 | 5% | 90% | |
| 140 | 6% | 85% | |
| 141 | 5% | 79% | |
| 142 | 10% | 74% | |
| 143 | 6% | 65% | |
| 144 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 145 | 6% | 51% | |
| 146 | 18% | 45% | |
| 147 | 5% | 28% | |
| 148 | 5% | 23% | |
| 149 | 11% | 17% | |
| 150 | 2% | 6% | |
| 151 | 2% | 4% | |
| 152 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 5% | 96% | |
| 131 | 4% | 91% | |
| 132 | 5% | 87% | |
| 133 | 13% | 82% | Median |
| 134 | 11% | 69% | |
| 135 | 8% | 58% | |
| 136 | 8% | 50% | |
| 137 | 11% | 42% | |
| 138 | 4% | 31% | |
| 139 | 4% | 28% | |
| 140 | 2% | 24% | |
| 141 | 3% | 21% | |
| 142 | 4% | 18% | |
| 143 | 3% | 15% | |
| 144 | 2% | 11% | |
| 145 | 3% | 9% | |
| 146 | 2% | 6% | |
| 147 | 2% | 4% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 123 | 2% | 98% | |
| 124 | 3% | 96% | |
| 125 | 4% | 93% | |
| 126 | 6% | 89% | |
| 127 | 9% | 83% | |
| 128 | 15% | 74% | |
| 129 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 130 | 6% | 50% | |
| 131 | 6% | 44% | |
| 132 | 6% | 38% | |
| 133 | 5% | 32% | |
| 134 | 7% | 27% | |
| 135 | 4% | 20% | |
| 136 | 3% | 16% | |
| 137 | 2% | 13% | |
| 138 | 2% | 10% | |
| 139 | 2% | 8% | |
| 140 | 4% | 7% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 145 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98% | |
| 123 | 3% | 96% | |
| 124 | 4% | 93% | |
| 125 | 7% | 89% | |
| 126 | 6% | 82% | |
| 127 | 10% | 76% | |
| 128 | 16% | 65% | Last Result |
| 129 | 9% | 49% | Median |
| 130 | 6% | 40% | |
| 131 | 6% | 34% | |
| 132 | 6% | 28% | |
| 133 | 5% | 22% | |
| 134 | 7% | 17% | |
| 135 | 4% | 11% | |
| 136 | 2% | 6% | |
| 137 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 115 | 3% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 95% | |
| 117 | 4% | 93% | |
| 118 | 5% | 89% | |
| 119 | 7% | 84% | |
| 120 | 10% | 77% | |
| 121 | 9% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 122 | 10% | 58% | |
| 123 | 14% | 49% | |
| 124 | 9% | 35% | |
| 125 | 5% | 26% | |
| 126 | 4% | 20% | |
| 127 | 4% | 17% | |
| 128 | 2% | 12% | |
| 129 | 2% | 11% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 133 | 3% | 6% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 136 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 114 | 2% | 97% | |
| 115 | 3% | 95% | |
| 116 | 3% | 92% | |
| 117 | 5% | 88% | |
| 118 | 8% | 83% | |
| 119 | 7% | 76% | |
| 120 | 10% | 68% | |
| 121 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 122 | 10% | 48% | |
| 123 | 14% | 38% | |
| 124 | 9% | 24% | |
| 125 | 5% | 15% | |
| 126 | 4% | 10% | |
| 127 | 4% | 6% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 88 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 97% | |
| 90 | 4% | 96% | |
| 91 | 6% | 92% | |
| 92 | 9% | 86% | |
| 93 | 15% | 77% | |
| 94 | 11% | 62% | Median |
| 95 | 8% | 51% | |
| 96 | 9% | 43% | |
| 97 | 6% | 34% | |
| 98 | 7% | 28% | |
| 99 | 5% | 21% | |
| 100 | 2% | 16% | |
| 101 | 3% | 14% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 104 | 2% | 9% | |
| 105 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 106 | 2% | 5% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 29 June–7 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 3267
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.61%