Opinion Poll by SKOP, 19–23 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.1% | 25.4–29.0% | 24.9–29.5% | 24.5–30.0% | 23.7–30.9% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.8% | 20.2–23.5% | 19.8–24.1% | 19.4–24.5% | 18.6–25.3% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.4% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.5–21.6% | 17.1–22.0% | 16.4–22.8% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.7% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 103 | 96–111 | 94–113 | 92–116 | 89–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 83 | 76–90 | 74–92 | 73–94 | 69–97 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 74 | 68–80 | 66–82 | 64–85 | 62–88 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 45 | 41–51 | 39–53 | 38–54 | 36–57 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 33 | 29–38 | 27–39 | 27–41 | 25–43 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–17 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 91 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 94 | 2% | 95% | |
| 95 | 3% | 93% | |
| 96 | 2% | 90% | |
| 97 | 2% | 88% | |
| 98 | 8% | 85% | |
| 99 | 4% | 77% | |
| 100 | 9% | 73% | Last Result |
| 101 | 5% | 64% | |
| 102 | 7% | 59% | |
| 103 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 104 | 5% | 47% | |
| 105 | 6% | 42% | |
| 106 | 3% | 36% | |
| 107 | 7% | 34% | |
| 108 | 4% | 26% | |
| 109 | 6% | 22% | |
| 110 | 6% | 16% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 112 | 4% | 9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 114 | 2% | 5% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 2% | 96% | |
| 75 | 3% | 94% | |
| 76 | 3% | 91% | |
| 77 | 5% | 88% | |
| 78 | 4% | 83% | |
| 79 | 4% | 79% | |
| 80 | 7% | 75% | |
| 81 | 5% | 69% | |
| 82 | 6% | 64% | |
| 83 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 84 | 8% | 47% | |
| 85 | 5% | 40% | |
| 86 | 7% | 34% | |
| 87 | 8% | 27% | |
| 88 | 3% | 18% | |
| 89 | 3% | 15% | |
| 90 | 4% | 13% | |
| 91 | 2% | 9% | |
| 92 | 2% | 7% | |
| 93 | 2% | 5% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 2% | 95% | |
| 67 | 3% | 93% | |
| 68 | 4% | 91% | |
| 69 | 4% | 87% | |
| 70 | 7% | 83% | |
| 71 | 6% | 76% | |
| 72 | 7% | 70% | |
| 73 | 8% | 63% | |
| 74 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 75 | 7% | 50% | |
| 76 | 6% | 42% | |
| 77 | 8% | 36% | |
| 78 | 8% | 28% | |
| 79 | 5% | 20% | |
| 80 | 6% | 15% | |
| 81 | 2% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 7% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 2% | 97% | |
| 40 | 3% | 94% | |
| 41 | 5% | 92% | |
| 42 | 9% | 87% | |
| 43 | 8% | 78% | |
| 44 | 10% | 70% | |
| 45 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 46 | 8% | 49% | |
| 47 | 9% | 41% | |
| 48 | 7% | 32% | |
| 49 | 7% | 25% | |
| 50 | 5% | 18% | |
| 51 | 6% | 13% | |
| 52 | 2% | 8% | |
| 53 | 2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 4% | 98% | |
| 28 | 2% | 95% | |
| 29 | 5% | 93% | |
| 30 | 12% | 88% | |
| 31 | 5% | 76% | Last Result |
| 32 | 12% | 71% | |
| 33 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 34 | 6% | 43% | |
| 35 | 11% | 37% | |
| 36 | 5% | 26% | |
| 37 | 8% | 21% | |
| 38 | 5% | 13% | |
| 39 | 3% | 7% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 32% | |
| 3 | 0% | 32% | |
| 4 | 0% | 32% | |
| 5 | 0% | 32% | |
| 6 | 0% | 32% | |
| 7 | 0% | 32% | |
| 8 | 0% | 32% | |
| 9 | 0% | 32% | |
| 10 | 0% | 32% | |
| 11 | 0% | 32% | |
| 12 | 0% | 32% | |
| 13 | 0% | 32% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 32% | |
| 15 | 5% | 32% | |
| 16 | 13% | 27% | Last Result |
| 17 | 8% | 14% | |
| 18 | 4% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0% | 20% | |
| 6 | 0% | 20% | |
| 7 | 0% | 20% | |
| 8 | 0% | 20% | |
| 9 | 0% | 20% | |
| 10 | 0% | 20% | |
| 11 | 0% | 20% | |
| 12 | 0% | 20% | |
| 13 | 0% | 20% | |
| 14 | 0% | 20% | |
| 15 | 5% | 19% | |
| 16 | 6% | 14% | |
| 17 | 5% | 8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 4% | |
| 15 | 2% | 4% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 220 | 100% | 209–230 | 206–233 | 203–235 | 198–239 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 188 | 96% | 179–198 | 175–201 | 173–202 | 168–208 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 187 | 94% | 176–196 | 173–199 | 171–201 | 166–205 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 161 | 4% | 151–170 | 148–174 | 147–176 | 141–181 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 157 | 0.8% | 148–167 | 145–169 | 142–170 | 137–175 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 154 | 0.5% | 145–164 | 142–168 | 139–170 | 135–175 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 149 | 0% | 140–158 | 138–160 | 135–164 | 131–167 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 143 | 0% | 132–153 | 130–156 | 127–159 | 123–164 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 120 | 0% | 110–131 | 108–134 | 107–137 | 102–141 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 119 | 0% | 110–130 | 108–133 | 107–135 | 102–141 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 117 | 0% | 109–126 | 107–128 | 104–131 | 100–135 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 116 | 0% | 108–125 | 106–127 | 104–129 | 100–133 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 109 | 0% | 99–119 | 97–122 | 94–124 | 91–128 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 192 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 202 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 204 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 205 | 2% | 97% | |
| 206 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 207 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 208 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 209 | 2% | 92% | |
| 210 | 6% | 90% | |
| 211 | 2% | 84% | |
| 212 | 2% | 82% | |
| 213 | 2% | 80% | |
| 214 | 6% | 78% | |
| 215 | 7% | 73% | |
| 216 | 4% | 65% | |
| 217 | 2% | 61% | |
| 218 | 4% | 59% | |
| 219 | 4% | 55% | Median |
| 220 | 4% | 52% | |
| 221 | 3% | 48% | |
| 222 | 5% | 44% | |
| 223 | 3% | 39% | |
| 224 | 5% | 36% | |
| 225 | 2% | 30% | |
| 226 | 2% | 29% | |
| 227 | 3% | 27% | |
| 228 | 9% | 24% | |
| 229 | 3% | 16% | |
| 230 | 3% | 13% | |
| 231 | 2% | 10% | |
| 232 | 3% | 8% | |
| 233 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 234 | 2% | 5% | |
| 235 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 236 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 238 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 239 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 240 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 173 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 96% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 177 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 178 | 2% | 93% | |
| 179 | 3% | 91% | |
| 180 | 5% | 88% | |
| 181 | 3% | 84% | Median |
| 182 | 5% | 81% | |
| 183 | 2% | 75% | |
| 184 | 2% | 74% | |
| 185 | 4% | 71% | |
| 186 | 5% | 67% | |
| 187 | 10% | 62% | |
| 188 | 5% | 53% | |
| 189 | 5% | 48% | |
| 190 | 4% | 43% | |
| 191 | 2% | 39% | |
| 192 | 3% | 37% | |
| 193 | 5% | 34% | |
| 194 | 6% | 29% | |
| 195 | 7% | 23% | Last Result |
| 196 | 3% | 16% | |
| 197 | 2% | 13% | |
| 198 | 2% | 11% | |
| 199 | 2% | 9% | |
| 200 | 2% | 8% | |
| 201 | 2% | 6% | |
| 202 | 2% | 4% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 172 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 173 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 175 | 3% | 94% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 91% | |
| 177 | 3% | 89% | |
| 178 | 2% | 86% | |
| 179 | 2% | 84% | |
| 180 | 5% | 82% | |
| 181 | 4% | 77% | |
| 182 | 6% | 73% | |
| 183 | 3% | 67% | |
| 184 | 2% | 64% | |
| 185 | 4% | 62% | |
| 186 | 6% | 58% | Median |
| 187 | 7% | 51% | |
| 188 | 3% | 44% | |
| 189 | 4% | 41% | |
| 190 | 7% | 36% | |
| 191 | 2% | 30% | |
| 192 | 2% | 28% | |
| 193 | 5% | 25% | |
| 194 | 3% | 20% | |
| 195 | 5% | 18% | |
| 196 | 3% | 12% | |
| 197 | 2% | 10% | |
| 198 | 2% | 7% | |
| 199 | 2% | 6% | |
| 200 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 147 | 2% | 98% | |
| 148 | 2% | 96% | |
| 149 | 2% | 94% | |
| 150 | 2% | 92% | |
| 151 | 2% | 91% | |
| 152 | 2% | 89% | |
| 153 | 3% | 87% | |
| 154 | 7% | 84% | Last Result |
| 155 | 6% | 77% | |
| 156 | 5% | 71% | |
| 157 | 3% | 66% | Median |
| 158 | 2% | 63% | |
| 159 | 4% | 61% | |
| 160 | 5% | 57% | |
| 161 | 5% | 52% | |
| 162 | 10% | 47% | |
| 163 | 5% | 38% | |
| 164 | 4% | 33% | |
| 165 | 2% | 29% | |
| 166 | 2% | 26% | |
| 167 | 5% | 25% | |
| 168 | 3% | 19% | |
| 169 | 5% | 16% | |
| 170 | 3% | 12% | |
| 171 | 2% | 9% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 4% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 177 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 142 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 147 | 3% | 94% | |
| 148 | 2% | 91% | |
| 149 | 3% | 88% | |
| 150 | 3% | 85% | |
| 151 | 2% | 83% | |
| 152 | 3% | 81% | |
| 153 | 6% | 78% | |
| 154 | 8% | 72% | |
| 155 | 7% | 64% | |
| 156 | 6% | 57% | |
| 157 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 158 | 2% | 49% | |
| 159 | 5% | 47% | |
| 160 | 5% | 42% | |
| 161 | 5% | 37% | |
| 162 | 9% | 32% | |
| 163 | 5% | 23% | |
| 164 | 3% | 18% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 167 | 5% | 13% | |
| 168 | 2% | 8% | |
| 169 | 3% | 6% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 141 | 2% | 97% | |
| 142 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 143 | 2% | 94% | |
| 144 | 2% | 92% | Last Result |
| 145 | 4% | 90% | |
| 146 | 3% | 86% | |
| 147 | 2% | 83% | |
| 148 | 4% | 81% | Median |
| 149 | 2% | 77% | |
| 150 | 5% | 75% | |
| 151 | 4% | 70% | |
| 152 | 4% | 66% | |
| 153 | 7% | 62% | |
| 154 | 7% | 55% | |
| 155 | 4% | 48% | |
| 156 | 4% | 44% | |
| 157 | 4% | 40% | |
| 158 | 5% | 36% | |
| 159 | 6% | 31% | |
| 160 | 5% | 26% | |
| 161 | 2% | 20% | |
| 162 | 3% | 19% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 164 | 5% | 14% | |
| 165 | 2% | 9% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 168 | 2% | 5% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 138 | 3% | 95% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 140 | 3% | 91% | |
| 141 | 2% | 88% | |
| 142 | 4% | 86% | |
| 143 | 3% | 82% | |
| 144 | 7% | 79% | |
| 145 | 4% | 72% | |
| 146 | 6% | 68% | |
| 147 | 5% | 62% | |
| 148 | 6% | 57% | Median |
| 149 | 3% | 51% | |
| 150 | 5% | 48% | |
| 151 | 4% | 43% | |
| 152 | 4% | 39% | |
| 153 | 7% | 35% | |
| 154 | 6% | 28% | |
| 155 | 3% | 22% | |
| 156 | 3% | 19% | |
| 157 | 2% | 15% | |
| 158 | 3% | 13% | |
| 159 | 3% | 10% | |
| 160 | 2% | 7% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 162 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 130 | 2% | 96% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 132 | 3% | 93% | |
| 133 | 2% | 90% | |
| 134 | 2% | 87% | |
| 135 | 4% | 85% | |
| 136 | 3% | 81% | Median |
| 137 | 7% | 78% | |
| 138 | 3% | 71% | |
| 139 | 3% | 69% | |
| 140 | 5% | 65% | |
| 141 | 3% | 61% | |
| 142 | 5% | 58% | |
| 143 | 7% | 53% | |
| 144 | 4% | 46% | |
| 145 | 5% | 42% | |
| 146 | 4% | 37% | |
| 147 | 5% | 33% | |
| 148 | 6% | 28% | |
| 149 | 4% | 22% | |
| 150 | 2% | 18% | |
| 151 | 3% | 16% | |
| 152 | 2% | 13% | |
| 153 | 2% | 10% | |
| 154 | 2% | 8% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 156 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 97% | |
| 109 | 2% | 95% | |
| 110 | 4% | 93% | |
| 111 | 2% | 89% | |
| 112 | 3% | 87% | |
| 113 | 4% | 84% | |
| 114 | 3% | 80% | |
| 115 | 4% | 78% | |
| 116 | 8% | 73% | Median |
| 117 | 3% | 66% | |
| 118 | 4% | 62% | |
| 119 | 7% | 58% | |
| 120 | 7% | 51% | |
| 121 | 3% | 44% | |
| 122 | 4% | 41% | |
| 123 | 3% | 37% | |
| 124 | 7% | 34% | |
| 125 | 3% | 27% | |
| 126 | 3% | 24% | |
| 127 | 6% | 22% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 129 | 2% | 15% | |
| 130 | 2% | 13% | |
| 131 | 3% | 11% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 134 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 96% | |
| 109 | 2% | 93% | |
| 110 | 4% | 92% | |
| 111 | 2% | 88% | |
| 112 | 4% | 86% | |
| 113 | 4% | 82% | |
| 114 | 3% | 78% | |
| 115 | 5% | 76% | |
| 116 | 8% | 71% | Median |
| 117 | 4% | 63% | |
| 118 | 5% | 60% | |
| 119 | 7% | 55% | |
| 120 | 8% | 49% | |
| 121 | 3% | 41% | |
| 122 | 4% | 38% | |
| 123 | 3% | 35% | Last Result |
| 124 | 6% | 32% | |
| 125 | 3% | 25% | |
| 126 | 3% | 22% | |
| 127 | 5% | 19% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 129 | 2% | 13% | |
| 130 | 2% | 11% | |
| 131 | 2% | 9% | |
| 132 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 106 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 107 | 2% | 95% | |
| 108 | 3% | 93% | |
| 109 | 3% | 90% | |
| 110 | 5% | 88% | |
| 111 | 4% | 82% | |
| 112 | 4% | 78% | |
| 113 | 5% | 74% | |
| 114 | 4% | 69% | |
| 115 | 5% | 65% | |
| 116 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 117 | 4% | 52% | |
| 118 | 6% | 48% | |
| 119 | 7% | 42% | |
| 120 | 7% | 35% | |
| 121 | 3% | 28% | Last Result |
| 122 | 4% | 25% | |
| 123 | 3% | 21% | |
| 124 | 6% | 18% | |
| 125 | 2% | 13% | |
| 126 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 127 | 4% | 9% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 129 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 106 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 107 | 3% | 95% | |
| 108 | 3% | 92% | |
| 109 | 3% | 89% | |
| 110 | 5% | 86% | |
| 111 | 4% | 81% | |
| 112 | 5% | 76% | |
| 113 | 5% | 72% | |
| 114 | 4% | 67% | |
| 115 | 6% | 63% | |
| 116 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 117 | 4% | 49% | |
| 118 | 6% | 45% | |
| 119 | 7% | 39% | |
| 120 | 7% | 32% | |
| 121 | 3% | 25% | |
| 122 | 3% | 22% | |
| 123 | 3% | 19% | |
| 124 | 5% | 16% | |
| 125 | 2% | 10% | |
| 126 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 127 | 3% | 7% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 129 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 97 | 2% | 95% | |
| 98 | 2% | 93% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 100 | 5% | 90% | |
| 101 | 2% | 84% | |
| 102 | 6% | 83% | |
| 103 | 3% | 77% | Median |
| 104 | 5% | 74% | |
| 105 | 5% | 69% | |
| 106 | 3% | 63% | |
| 107 | 6% | 61% | |
| 108 | 3% | 55% | |
| 109 | 7% | 51% | |
| 110 | 6% | 45% | |
| 111 | 3% | 39% | |
| 112 | 5% | 36% | |
| 113 | 3% | 31% | |
| 114 | 4% | 28% | |
| 115 | 4% | 24% | |
| 116 | 3% | 20% | Last Result |
| 117 | 5% | 17% | |
| 118 | 2% | 12% | |
| 119 | 3% | 11% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SKOP
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–23 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1013
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.06%