Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 2–29 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 25.9% | 25.1–26.7% | 24.9–27.0% | 24.7–27.2% | 24.3–27.6% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 22.0% | 21.2–22.8% | 21.0–23.0% | 20.8–23.2% | 20.5–23.6% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.6% | 18.9–20.4% | 18.7–20.6% | 18.5–20.8% | 18.2–21.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 11.2% | 10.6–11.8% | 10.5–12.0% | 10.3–12.1% | 10.1–12.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.4–9.4% | 8.2–9.6% | 8.1–9.8% | 7.9–10.0% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.1–4.9% | 4.0–5.0% | 3.9–5.1% | 3.8–5.3% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0–4.8% | 3.9–4.9% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.8–2.4% | 1.8–2.5% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 94 | 91–97 | 90–99 | 89–100 | 88–103 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 79 | 78–83 | 76–84 | 75–85 | 74–87 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 71 | 68–74 | 67–75 | 67–76 | 66–78 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 41 | 39–43 | 38–44 | 38–44 | 36–46 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 32 | 30–34 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 0–19 | 0–19 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 15–17 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–19 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 4% | 97% | |
| 91 | 10% | 93% | |
| 92 | 11% | 83% | |
| 93 | 17% | 71% | |
| 94 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 95 | 15% | 37% | |
| 96 | 7% | 22% | |
| 97 | 7% | 16% | |
| 98 | 3% | 9% | |
| 99 | 2% | 6% | |
| 100 | 1.5% | 4% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 4% | 94% | |
| 78 | 31% | 90% | |
| 79 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 80 | 6% | 49% | |
| 81 | 19% | 43% | |
| 82 | 14% | 24% | |
| 83 | 2% | 11% | |
| 84 | 4% | 9% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 6% | 95% | |
| 69 | 10% | 89% | |
| 70 | 15% | 79% | |
| 71 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 72 | 19% | 46% | |
| 73 | 13% | 27% | |
| 74 | 7% | 14% | |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 5% | 98% | |
| 39 | 16% | 93% | |
| 40 | 20% | 76% | |
| 41 | 26% | 57% | Median |
| 42 | 18% | 30% | |
| 43 | 6% | 12% | |
| 44 | 4% | 6% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 9% | 98% | |
| 31 | 24% | 89% | Last Result |
| 32 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 30% | 47% | |
| 34 | 7% | 16% | |
| 35 | 6% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0% | 96% | |
| 7 | 0% | 96% | |
| 8 | 0% | 96% | |
| 9 | 0% | 96% | |
| 10 | 0% | 96% | |
| 11 | 0% | 96% | |
| 12 | 0% | 96% | |
| 13 | 0% | 96% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 15 | 17% | 96% | |
| 16 | 35% | 79% | Median |
| 17 | 26% | 44% | |
| 18 | 15% | 18% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 0% | 94% | |
| 5 | 0% | 94% | |
| 6 | 0% | 94% | |
| 7 | 0% | 94% | |
| 8 | 0% | 94% | |
| 9 | 0% | 94% | |
| 10 | 0% | 94% | |
| 11 | 0% | 94% | |
| 12 | 0% | 94% | |
| 13 | 0% | 94% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 15 | 33% | 94% | |
| 16 | 36% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 18% | 26% | |
| 18 | 6% | 8% | |
| 19 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 205 | 100% | 202–210 | 201–216 | 200–218 | 199–220 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 182 | 98% | 178–186 | 177–187 | 175–190 | 171–195 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 173 | 35% | 170–178 | 169–182 | 168–184 | 166–186 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 167 | 2% | 163–171 | 162–172 | 159–174 | 154–178 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 151 | 0% | 147–155 | 147–157 | 146–160 | 144–162 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 150 | 0% | 146–154 | 144–155 | 141–157 | 137–160 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 142 | 0% | 138–145 | 135–147 | 133–148 | 129–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 134 | 0% | 131–139 | 130–141 | 129–143 | 128–145 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 128 | 0% | 125–132 | 123–133 | 119–135 | 115–138 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 128 | 0% | 125–132 | 123–133 | 119–135 | 115–138 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 112 | 0% | 109–116 | 108–118 | 107–119 | 105–121 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 112 | 0% | 109–116 | 108–118 | 107–119 | 105–121 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 109 | 0% | 106–113 | 103–114 | 99–115 | 95–118 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 200 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 201 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 202 | 6% | 93% | |
| 203 | 8% | 87% | |
| 204 | 18% | 79% | |
| 205 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 206 | 12% | 46% | |
| 207 | 11% | 34% | |
| 208 | 8% | 24% | |
| 209 | 3% | 15% | |
| 210 | 3% | 13% | |
| 211 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 212 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 213 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 214 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 215 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 216 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 217 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 218 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 219 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 220 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 98% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 177 | 2% | 96% | |
| 178 | 5% | 93% | |
| 179 | 9% | 88% | |
| 180 | 14% | 79% | |
| 181 | 9% | 66% | |
| 182 | 9% | 56% | |
| 183 | 11% | 48% | Median |
| 184 | 17% | 36% | |
| 185 | 8% | 19% | |
| 186 | 5% | 12% | |
| 187 | 2% | 6% | |
| 188 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 189 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 168 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 169 | 5% | 97% | |
| 170 | 5% | 91% | Last Result |
| 171 | 14% | 86% | |
| 172 | 12% | 72% | |
| 173 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 174 | 8% | 43% | |
| 175 | 12% | 35% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 23% | |
| 177 | 5% | 17% | |
| 178 | 2% | 11% | |
| 179 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 181 | 2% | 7% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 162 | 2% | 95% | |
| 163 | 5% | 94% | |
| 164 | 8% | 88% | |
| 165 | 17% | 81% | |
| 166 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 167 | 9% | 52% | |
| 168 | 9% | 44% | |
| 169 | 14% | 34% | |
| 170 | 9% | 21% | |
| 171 | 5% | 12% | |
| 172 | 2% | 7% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 146 | 2% | 98% | |
| 147 | 6% | 95% | |
| 148 | 11% | 89% | |
| 149 | 12% | 79% | |
| 150 | 17% | 67% | Median |
| 151 | 13% | 50% | |
| 152 | 9% | 38% | |
| 153 | 10% | 29% | |
| 154 | 7% | 19% | |
| 155 | 3% | 12% | |
| 156 | 2% | 9% | |
| 157 | 2% | 7% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 95% | Last Result |
| 145 | 2% | 94% | |
| 146 | 3% | 92% | |
| 147 | 10% | 89% | |
| 148 | 14% | 79% | |
| 149 | 11% | 65% | |
| 150 | 11% | 55% | |
| 151 | 14% | 44% | Median |
| 152 | 11% | 30% | |
| 153 | 9% | 19% | |
| 154 | 3% | 10% | |
| 155 | 3% | 7% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 157 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 135 | 2% | 96% | |
| 136 | 2% | 95% | |
| 137 | 2% | 93% | |
| 138 | 6% | 91% | |
| 139 | 7% | 85% | |
| 140 | 15% | 79% | |
| 141 | 13% | 64% | |
| 142 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 143 | 14% | 34% | |
| 144 | 7% | 20% | |
| 145 | 4% | 13% | |
| 146 | 4% | 9% | |
| 147 | 2% | 5% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 130 | 4% | 97% | |
| 131 | 9% | 93% | |
| 132 | 7% | 85% | |
| 133 | 19% | 78% | |
| 134 | 8% | 58% | |
| 135 | 16% | 50% | Median |
| 136 | 11% | 34% | |
| 137 | 6% | 23% | |
| 138 | 7% | 17% | |
| 139 | 3% | 10% | |
| 140 | 2% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 6% | |
| 142 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | |
| 124 | 2% | 94% | |
| 125 | 11% | 91% | |
| 126 | 10% | 80% | |
| 127 | 10% | 69% | Median |
| 128 | 17% | 60% | |
| 129 | 8% | 42% | |
| 130 | 17% | 34% | |
| 131 | 5% | 18% | |
| 132 | 6% | 13% | |
| 133 | 3% | 7% | |
| 134 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 136 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 124 | 2% | 94% | |
| 125 | 11% | 91% | |
| 126 | 10% | 80% | |
| 127 | 10% | 69% | Median |
| 128 | 17% | 60% | |
| 129 | 8% | 42% | |
| 130 | 17% | 34% | |
| 131 | 5% | 18% | |
| 132 | 6% | 13% | |
| 133 | 3% | 7% | |
| 134 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 136 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 108 | 3% | 97% | |
| 109 | 13% | 93% | |
| 110 | 10% | 80% | |
| 111 | 18% | 71% | Median |
| 112 | 11% | 53% | |
| 113 | 15% | 42% | |
| 114 | 12% | 27% | |
| 115 | 3% | 15% | |
| 116 | 4% | 12% | |
| 117 | 3% | 8% | |
| 118 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 108 | 3% | 97% | |
| 109 | 13% | 93% | |
| 110 | 10% | 80% | |
| 111 | 18% | 71% | Median |
| 112 | 11% | 53% | |
| 113 | 15% | 42% | |
| 114 | 12% | 27% | |
| 115 | 3% | 15% | |
| 116 | 4% | 12% | |
| 117 | 3% | 8% | |
| 118 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 99 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 105 | 2% | 94% | |
| 106 | 3% | 92% | |
| 107 | 15% | 88% | |
| 108 | 8% | 74% | |
| 109 | 18% | 65% | |
| 110 | 16% | 47% | Median |
| 111 | 13% | 31% | |
| 112 | 8% | 18% | |
| 113 | 3% | 10% | |
| 114 | 3% | 7% | |
| 115 | 2% | 4% | |
| 116 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 2–29 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 4765
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.55%