Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 30 August–3 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.0% | 25.2–26.8% | 25.0–27.1% | 24.8–27.3% | 24.4–27.6% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 22.6% | 21.8–23.4% | 21.6–23.6% | 21.4–23.8% | 21.1–24.2% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.4% | 18.7–20.1% | 18.5–20.4% | 18.3–20.5% | 18.0–20.9% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.1–11.2% | 9.9–11.4% | 9.8–11.5% | 9.5–11.8% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.3–9.3% | 8.2–9.5% | 8.0–9.6% | 7.8–9.9% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.2–5.0% | 4.1–5.1% | 4.0–5.2% | 3.9–5.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.7–4.4% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.3–2.9% | 2.3–3.0% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 96 | 93–101 | 92–102 | 91–102 | 89–104 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 84 | 80–87 | 79–88 | 78–89 | 77–91 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 72 | 68–76 | 68–77 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 39 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 33 | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 28–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 0–20 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–17 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98% | |
| 92 | 5% | 96% | |
| 93 | 11% | 91% | |
| 94 | 9% | 80% | |
| 95 | 10% | 71% | |
| 96 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 97 | 9% | 49% | |
| 98 | 9% | 40% | |
| 99 | 15% | 31% | |
| 100 | 5% | 16% | Last Result |
| 101 | 6% | 11% | |
| 102 | 3% | 5% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 79 | 3% | 97% | |
| 80 | 8% | 94% | |
| 81 | 9% | 86% | |
| 82 | 10% | 77% | |
| 83 | 9% | 67% | |
| 84 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 85 | 22% | 46% | |
| 86 | 5% | 24% | |
| 87 | 10% | 19% | |
| 88 | 4% | 8% | |
| 89 | 3% | 5% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 68 | 7% | 97% | |
| 69 | 6% | 90% | |
| 70 | 9% | 84% | |
| 71 | 19% | 75% | |
| 72 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 73 | 7% | 40% | |
| 74 | 15% | 33% | |
| 75 | 8% | 18% | |
| 76 | 5% | 10% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 37 | 5% | 94% | |
| 38 | 17% | 89% | |
| 39 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 40 | 10% | 48% | |
| 41 | 26% | 37% | |
| 42 | 8% | 11% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 6% | 98% | |
| 31 | 22% | 92% | Last Result |
| 32 | 19% | 70% | |
| 33 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 26% | |
| 35 | 9% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 0% | 98% | |
| 15 | 6% | 98% | |
| 16 | 27% | 93% | |
| 17 | 34% | 66% | Median |
| 18 | 21% | 32% | |
| 19 | 8% | 11% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 0% | 50% | |
| 5 | 0% | 50% | |
| 6 | 0% | 50% | |
| 7 | 0% | 50% | |
| 8 | 0% | 50% | |
| 9 | 0% | 50% | |
| 10 | 0% | 50% | |
| 11 | 0% | 50% | |
| 12 | 0% | 50% | |
| 13 | 0% | 50% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 50% | |
| 15 | 36% | 50% | |
| 16 | 11% | 14% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 213 | 100% | 206–220 | 205–221 | 204–222 | 202–226 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 180 | 88% | 174–186 | 173–188 | 172–189 | 170–192 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 176 | 59% | 170–182 | 169–183 | 168–185 | 166–189 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 173 | 41% | 167–179 | 166–180 | 164–181 | 160–183 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 156 | 0% | 150–162 | 149–163 | 148–163 | 146–167 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 144 | 0% | 137–150 | 136–152 | 135–153 | 133–156 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 137 | 0% | 130–144 | 129–145 | 128–146 | 127–150 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 136 | 0% | 131–141 | 130–142 | 129–143 | 127–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 134 | 0% | 128–138 | 127–140 | 126–140 | 120–143 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 134 | 0% | 128–138 | 127–140 | 126–140 | 120–143 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 116 | 0% | 112–121 | 111–122 | 110–123 | 108–125 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 116 | 0% | 112–121 | 111–122 | 110–123 | 108–125 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 104 | 0% | 96–112 | 96–113 | 95–114 | 94–116 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 203 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 204 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 205 | 3% | 97% | |
| 206 | 5% | 94% | |
| 207 | 7% | 89% | |
| 208 | 13% | 82% | |
| 209 | 7% | 69% | |
| 210 | 4% | 62% | |
| 211 | 3% | 58% | |
| 212 | 3% | 55% | |
| 213 | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 214 | 3% | 49% | |
| 215 | 6% | 46% | |
| 216 | 5% | 40% | |
| 217 | 12% | 35% | |
| 218 | 7% | 23% | |
| 219 | 6% | 16% | |
| 220 | 4% | 10% | |
| 221 | 2% | 6% | |
| 222 | 2% | 4% | |
| 223 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 172 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 173 | 2% | 97% | |
| 174 | 6% | 94% | |
| 175 | 4% | 88% | Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 85% | |
| 177 | 13% | 75% | |
| 178 | 4% | 62% | |
| 179 | 4% | 59% | |
| 180 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 181 | 3% | 49% | |
| 182 | 6% | 45% | |
| 183 | 6% | 40% | |
| 184 | 13% | 33% | |
| 185 | 5% | 20% | |
| 186 | 6% | 14% | |
| 187 | 2% | 9% | |
| 188 | 4% | 6% | |
| 189 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 168 | 2% | 98.7% | Median |
| 169 | 4% | 97% | |
| 170 | 4% | 93% | |
| 171 | 10% | 89% | |
| 172 | 4% | 79% | |
| 173 | 12% | 75% | |
| 174 | 4% | 63% | |
| 175 | 6% | 59% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 53% | |
| 177 | 3% | 49% | |
| 178 | 9% | 45% | |
| 179 | 5% | 36% | |
| 180 | 9% | 31% | |
| 181 | 7% | 22% | |
| 182 | 5% | 14% | |
| 183 | 5% | 10% | |
| 184 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 185 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 186 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 164 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 166 | 5% | 95% | |
| 167 | 5% | 90% | |
| 168 | 7% | 86% | |
| 169 | 9% | 78% | |
| 170 | 5% | 69% | |
| 171 | 9% | 64% | |
| 172 | 3% | 55% | |
| 173 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 174 | 6% | 47% | |
| 175 | 4% | 41% | Majority |
| 176 | 12% | 37% | |
| 177 | 4% | 25% | |
| 178 | 10% | 21% | |
| 179 | 4% | 11% | |
| 180 | 4% | 7% | |
| 181 | 2% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 148 | 2% | 98% | |
| 149 | 3% | 96% | |
| 150 | 3% | 93% | |
| 151 | 7% | 90% | |
| 152 | 10% | 82% | |
| 153 | 8% | 72% | |
| 154 | 2% | 64% | |
| 155 | 9% | 62% | |
| 156 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 157 | 9% | 48% | |
| 158 | 5% | 40% | |
| 159 | 12% | 35% | |
| 160 | 7% | 23% | |
| 161 | 5% | 16% | |
| 162 | 5% | 11% | |
| 163 | 4% | 6% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 3% | 98% | Median |
| 136 | 4% | 96% | |
| 137 | 3% | 91% | |
| 138 | 9% | 88% | |
| 139 | 4% | 78% | |
| 140 | 14% | 74% | |
| 141 | 3% | 60% | |
| 142 | 4% | 57% | |
| 143 | 2% | 53% | |
| 144 | 2% | 51% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 49% | |
| 146 | 5% | 45% | |
| 147 | 9% | 41% | |
| 148 | 11% | 32% | |
| 149 | 4% | 21% | |
| 150 | 7% | 17% | |
| 151 | 4% | 9% | |
| 152 | 3% | 6% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 154 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 128 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 129 | 3% | 96% | Median |
| 130 | 7% | 92% | |
| 131 | 7% | 85% | |
| 132 | 11% | 78% | |
| 133 | 4% | 67% | |
| 134 | 6% | 63% | |
| 135 | 3% | 57% | |
| 136 | 2% | 54% | |
| 137 | 3% | 51% | |
| 138 | 3% | 49% | |
| 139 | 8% | 46% | |
| 140 | 7% | 38% | |
| 141 | 8% | 31% | |
| 142 | 7% | 23% | |
| 143 | 4% | 16% | |
| 144 | 6% | 12% | |
| 145 | 3% | 7% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 128 | 0.9% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 3% | 96% | |
| 131 | 4% | 93% | |
| 132 | 9% | 89% | |
| 133 | 11% | 80% | |
| 134 | 6% | 68% | |
| 135 | 9% | 62% | Median |
| 136 | 8% | 54% | |
| 137 | 6% | 46% | |
| 138 | 10% | 40% | |
| 139 | 5% | 30% | |
| 140 | 14% | 25% | |
| 141 | 3% | 11% | |
| 142 | 4% | 8% | |
| 143 | 2% | 3% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 126 | 2% | 98% | |
| 127 | 5% | 96% | |
| 128 | 2% | 92% | |
| 129 | 7% | 89% | |
| 130 | 9% | 83% | |
| 131 | 14% | 74% | |
| 132 | 7% | 60% | |
| 133 | 2% | 53% | |
| 134 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 135 | 14% | 42% | |
| 136 | 4% | 27% | |
| 137 | 7% | 24% | |
| 138 | 7% | 17% | |
| 139 | 4% | 10% | |
| 140 | 3% | 5% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 126 | 2% | 98% | |
| 127 | 5% | 96% | |
| 128 | 2% | 92% | |
| 129 | 7% | 89% | |
| 130 | 9% | 83% | |
| 131 | 14% | 74% | |
| 132 | 7% | 60% | |
| 133 | 2% | 53% | |
| 134 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 135 | 14% | 42% | |
| 136 | 4% | 27% | |
| 137 | 7% | 24% | |
| 138 | 7% | 17% | |
| 139 | 4% | 10% | |
| 140 | 3% | 5% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 6% | 96% | |
| 112 | 5% | 91% | |
| 113 | 8% | 86% | |
| 114 | 11% | 78% | |
| 115 | 10% | 67% | |
| 116 | 10% | 58% | |
| 117 | 7% | 48% | Median |
| 118 | 14% | 41% | |
| 119 | 5% | 27% | |
| 120 | 8% | 22% | |
| 121 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 122 | 4% | 8% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 6% | 96% | |
| 112 | 5% | 91% | |
| 113 | 8% | 86% | |
| 114 | 11% | 78% | |
| 115 | 10% | 67% | |
| 116 | 10% | 58% | |
| 117 | 7% | 48% | Median |
| 118 | 14% | 41% | |
| 119 | 5% | 27% | |
| 120 | 8% | 22% | |
| 121 | 5% | 13% | |
| 122 | 4% | 8% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 3% | 98% | |
| 96 | 6% | 95% | Median |
| 97 | 5% | 89% | |
| 98 | 6% | 84% | |
| 99 | 14% | 78% | |
| 100 | 4% | 64% | |
| 101 | 6% | 60% | |
| 102 | 3% | 55% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 51% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 50% | |
| 106 | 2% | 49% | |
| 107 | 4% | 47% | |
| 108 | 10% | 43% | |
| 109 | 9% | 33% | |
| 110 | 7% | 25% | |
| 111 | 7% | 18% | |
| 112 | 4% | 11% | |
| 113 | 4% | 7% | |
| 114 | 2% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 30 August–3 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 4922
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%