Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 29 September–6 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.7% | 25.6–27.9% | 25.3–28.2% | 25.0–28.5% | 24.5–29.1% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 22.2% | 21.2–23.3% | 20.9–23.7% | 20.6–23.9% | 20.1–24.5% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 20.9% | 19.9–22.0% | 19.6–22.3% | 19.4–22.6% | 18.9–23.1% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.8–10.3% | 8.6–10.6% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.9–9.4% | 7.7–9.6% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.2% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 100 | 96–104 | 94–105 | 93–106 | 91–109 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 83 | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–91 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 78 | 74–82 | 73–83 | 72–84 | 70–86 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 35 | 33–38 | 32–40 | 31–40 | 30–42 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 32 | 29–35 | 29–36 | 28–36 | 27–38 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 21 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 94 | 3% | 97% | |
| 95 | 4% | 94% | |
| 96 | 7% | 90% | |
| 97 | 8% | 83% | |
| 98 | 11% | 75% | |
| 99 | 8% | 64% | |
| 100 | 16% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 101 | 10% | 40% | |
| 102 | 10% | 30% | |
| 103 | 6% | 20% | |
| 104 | 8% | 15% | |
| 105 | 3% | 7% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 3% | 96% | |
| 79 | 7% | 93% | |
| 80 | 10% | 86% | |
| 81 | 8% | 75% | |
| 82 | 12% | 67% | |
| 83 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 84 | 11% | 43% | |
| 85 | 8% | 33% | |
| 86 | 13% | 25% | |
| 87 | 5% | 12% | |
| 88 | 2% | 7% | |
| 89 | 3% | 5% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 2% | 96% | |
| 74 | 4% | 94% | |
| 75 | 8% | 89% | |
| 76 | 18% | 82% | |
| 77 | 11% | 64% | |
| 78 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 79 | 7% | 39% | |
| 80 | 8% | 31% | |
| 81 | 8% | 24% | |
| 82 | 7% | 16% | |
| 83 | 4% | 9% | |
| 84 | 2% | 4% | |
| 85 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 97% | |
| 33 | 15% | 94% | |
| 34 | 12% | 79% | |
| 35 | 22% | 67% | Median |
| 36 | 13% | 45% | |
| 37 | 14% | 33% | |
| 38 | 9% | 19% | |
| 39 | 4% | 10% | |
| 40 | 5% | 6% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 29 | 7% | 96% | |
| 30 | 11% | 89% | |
| 31 | 20% | 78% | |
| 32 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 33 | 17% | 41% | |
| 34 | 12% | 24% | |
| 35 | 5% | 12% | |
| 36 | 4% | 7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 9% | 97% | |
| 19 | 16% | 88% | |
| 20 | 19% | 72% | |
| 21 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 14% | 30% | Last Result |
| 23 | 10% | 16% | |
| 24 | 4% | 6% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 219 | 100% | 213–223 | 212–224 | 211–225 | 208–227 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 183 | 98% | 178–187 | 177–188 | 175–190 | 173–192 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 182 | 96% | 176–186 | 175–188 | 174–189 | 172–191 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 167 | 4% | 163–173 | 161–174 | 160–175 | 158–177 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 161 | 0% | 156–166 | 155–167 | 154–168 | 151–171 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 139 | 0% | 134–144 | 133–145 | 131–146 | 129–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 139 | 0% | 134–144 | 133–145 | 131–146 | 129–149 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 135 | 0% | 130–140 | 129–141 | 128–142 | 126–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 131 | 0% | 127–137 | 126–138 | 125–139 | 123–142 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 131 | 0% | 127–137 | 126–138 | 125–139 | 123–142 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 119 | 0% | 114–123 | 113–124 | 111–125 | 109–127 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 119 | 0% | 114–123 | 113–124 | 111–125 | 109–127 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 100 | 0% | 96–104 | 94–105 | 93–107 | 91–110 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 209 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 210 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 211 | 3% | 98% | |
| 212 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 213 | 5% | 94% | |
| 214 | 4% | 89% | |
| 215 | 5% | 85% | |
| 216 | 7% | 80% | |
| 217 | 17% | 73% | |
| 218 | 5% | 56% | Median |
| 219 | 15% | 51% | |
| 220 | 8% | 36% | |
| 221 | 12% | 28% | |
| 222 | 3% | 16% | |
| 223 | 6% | 12% | |
| 224 | 3% | 6% | |
| 225 | 2% | 3% | |
| 226 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 98% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 97% | |
| 177 | 2% | 95% | |
| 178 | 7% | 93% | |
| 179 | 4% | 86% | |
| 180 | 9% | 82% | |
| 181 | 9% | 73% | |
| 182 | 12% | 64% | |
| 183 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 184 | 10% | 43% | |
| 185 | 6% | 33% | |
| 186 | 13% | 27% | |
| 187 | 4% | 14% | |
| 188 | 6% | 10% | |
| 189 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 174 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 175 | 3% | 96% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 94% | |
| 177 | 5% | 89% | |
| 178 | 6% | 84% | |
| 179 | 5% | 78% | |
| 180 | 7% | 74% | |
| 181 | 14% | 66% | |
| 182 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 183 | 17% | 44% | |
| 184 | 6% | 27% | |
| 185 | 8% | 21% | |
| 186 | 3% | 13% | |
| 187 | 4% | 10% | |
| 188 | 3% | 6% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 190 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 161 | 3% | 97% | |
| 162 | 4% | 94% | |
| 163 | 3% | 90% | |
| 164 | 8% | 87% | |
| 165 | 6% | 79% | |
| 166 | 17% | 73% | |
| 167 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 168 | 14% | 48% | |
| 169 | 7% | 34% | |
| 170 | 5% | 26% | |
| 171 | 6% | 22% | |
| 172 | 5% | 16% | |
| 173 | 4% | 11% | |
| 174 | 3% | 6% | |
| 175 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 155 | 6% | 96% | |
| 156 | 6% | 91% | |
| 157 | 4% | 85% | |
| 158 | 6% | 81% | |
| 159 | 9% | 75% | |
| 160 | 7% | 66% | |
| 161 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 162 | 14% | 49% | |
| 163 | 11% | 35% | |
| 164 | 9% | 24% | |
| 165 | 4% | 15% | |
| 166 | 5% | 11% | |
| 167 | 3% | 7% | |
| 168 | 2% | 4% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 133 | 4% | 96% | |
| 134 | 3% | 92% | |
| 135 | 9% | 90% | |
| 136 | 6% | 80% | |
| 137 | 8% | 74% | |
| 138 | 12% | 66% | |
| 139 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 140 | 9% | 47% | |
| 141 | 10% | 39% | |
| 142 | 13% | 29% | |
| 143 | 5% | 16% | Last Result |
| 144 | 3% | 11% | |
| 145 | 4% | 7% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 133 | 4% | 96% | |
| 134 | 3% | 92% | |
| 135 | 9% | 90% | |
| 136 | 6% | 80% | |
| 137 | 8% | 74% | |
| 138 | 12% | 66% | |
| 139 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 140 | 9% | 47% | |
| 141 | 10% | 38% | |
| 142 | 13% | 29% | |
| 143 | 5% | 16% | |
| 144 | 3% | 11% | |
| 145 | 4% | 7% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 3% | 97% | |
| 130 | 3% | 93% | |
| 131 | 4% | 90% | |
| 132 | 5% | 85% | |
| 133 | 9% | 80% | |
| 134 | 9% | 71% | |
| 135 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 136 | 11% | 48% | |
| 137 | 9% | 37% | |
| 138 | 9% | 28% | |
| 139 | 8% | 19% | |
| 140 | 4% | 11% | |
| 141 | 2% | 7% | |
| 142 | 3% | 5% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 2% | 98% | |
| 126 | 2% | 96% | |
| 127 | 4% | 94% | |
| 128 | 6% | 89% | |
| 129 | 9% | 83% | |
| 130 | 10% | 75% | |
| 131 | 15% | 64% | |
| 132 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 133 | 7% | 41% | |
| 134 | 8% | 34% | |
| 135 | 9% | 26% | |
| 136 | 6% | 17% | |
| 137 | 5% | 11% | |
| 138 | 3% | 6% | |
| 139 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 2% | 98% | |
| 126 | 2% | 96% | |
| 127 | 4% | 93% | |
| 128 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 129 | 9% | 83% | |
| 130 | 10% | 74% | |
| 131 | 15% | 64% | |
| 132 | 8% | 49% | Median |
| 133 | 7% | 41% | |
| 134 | 8% | 34% | |
| 135 | 9% | 26% | |
| 136 | 6% | 17% | |
| 137 | 5% | 11% | |
| 138 | 3% | 6% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 112 | 2% | 97% | |
| 113 | 4% | 95% | |
| 114 | 8% | 92% | |
| 115 | 6% | 84% | |
| 116 | 6% | 78% | |
| 117 | 13% | 72% | |
| 118 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 119 | 15% | 52% | |
| 120 | 7% | 37% | |
| 121 | 12% | 31% | Last Result |
| 122 | 7% | 19% | |
| 123 | 4% | 12% | |
| 124 | 4% | 8% | |
| 125 | 2% | 5% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 112 | 2% | 97% | |
| 113 | 4% | 95% | |
| 114 | 8% | 92% | |
| 115 | 6% | 84% | |
| 116 | 6% | 78% | |
| 117 | 13% | 72% | |
| 118 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 119 | 15% | 52% | |
| 120 | 7% | 37% | |
| 121 | 12% | 31% | |
| 122 | 7% | 19% | |
| 123 | 4% | 12% | |
| 124 | 4% | 8% | |
| 125 | 2% | 5% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 94 | 3% | 97% | |
| 95 | 4% | 94% | |
| 96 | 7% | 90% | |
| 97 | 8% | 84% | |
| 98 | 11% | 76% | |
| 99 | 8% | 65% | |
| 100 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 101 | 10% | 41% | |
| 102 | 10% | 31% | |
| 103 | 6% | 21% | |
| 104 | 8% | 15% | |
| 105 | 4% | 8% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 29 September–6 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2417
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.55%