Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 5–11 November 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.0% | 25.8–28.2% | 25.5–28.5% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.7–29.4% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 23.6% | 22.5–24.8% | 22.2–25.1% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.4–25.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.7% | 17.7–19.8% | 17.4–20.1% | 17.2–20.3% | 16.7–20.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.0–10.5% | 8.7–10.8% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.2–11.4% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.4–8.9% | 7.2–9.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.7–9.6% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.0–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.6–3.8% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 101 | 96–106 | 95–107 | 94–109 | 92–111 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 89 | 84–93 | 83–94 | 82–96 | 80–97 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 71 | 66–75 | 65–75 | 64–76 | 62–78 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 37 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 32–41 | 31–43 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 96% | |
| 96 | 5% | 94% | |
| 97 | 8% | 89% | |
| 98 | 7% | 81% | |
| 99 | 5% | 74% | |
| 100 | 14% | 68% | Last Result |
| 101 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 102 | 10% | 41% | |
| 103 | 9% | 32% | |
| 104 | 5% | 23% | |
| 105 | 5% | 18% | |
| 106 | 5% | 13% | |
| 107 | 3% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 83 | 4% | 96% | |
| 84 | 5% | 93% | |
| 85 | 6% | 88% | |
| 86 | 7% | 82% | |
| 87 | 11% | 75% | |
| 88 | 13% | 64% | |
| 89 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 90 | 17% | 45% | |
| 91 | 7% | 28% | |
| 92 | 8% | 21% | |
| 93 | 6% | 13% | |
| 94 | 3% | 8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 4% | |
| 96 | 2% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 96% | |
| 66 | 4% | 92% | |
| 67 | 7% | 88% | |
| 68 | 8% | 82% | |
| 69 | 8% | 74% | |
| 70 | 10% | 66% | |
| 71 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 72 | 8% | 41% | |
| 73 | 10% | 33% | |
| 74 | 12% | 23% | |
| 75 | 6% | 11% | |
| 76 | 3% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 32 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 33 | 6% | 97% | |
| 34 | 9% | 90% | |
| 35 | 11% | 82% | |
| 36 | 16% | 71% | |
| 37 | 21% | 55% | Median |
| 38 | 12% | 34% | |
| 39 | 8% | 22% | |
| 40 | 8% | 14% | |
| 41 | 3% | 6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 6% | 96% | |
| 28 | 13% | 91% | Last Result |
| 29 | 12% | 78% | |
| 30 | 15% | 66% | |
| 31 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 32 | 11% | 35% | |
| 33 | 14% | 24% | |
| 34 | 7% | 10% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98% | |
| 18 | 10% | 92% | |
| 19 | 21% | 82% | |
| 20 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 41% | |
| 22 | 12% | 22% | Last Result |
| 23 | 7% | 10% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 7% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 227 | 100% | 221–232 | 217–234 | 215–235 | 212–237 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 189 | 99.8% | 185–196 | 181–198 | 180–199 | 177–200 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 180 | 86% | 173–185 | 171–186 | 169–187 | 165–189 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 169 | 14% | 164–176 | 163–178 | 162–180 | 160–184 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 159 | 0% | 154–165 | 152–166 | 150–167 | 147–169 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 146 | 0% | 140–151 | 138–153 | 137–154 | 133–158 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 146 | 0% | 140–150 | 138–152 | 137–153 | 133–156 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 139 | 0% | 134–145 | 133–148 | 131–150 | 129–154 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 132 | 0% | 128–139 | 126–141 | 126–143 | 123–147 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 131 | 0% | 127–137 | 125–139 | 124–140 | 121–142 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 126 | 0% | 120–130 | 119–132 | 118–134 | 115–139 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 126 | 0% | 120–130 | 119–131 | 117–133 | 114–135 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 101 | 0% | 97–108 | 96–111 | 95–113 | 93–118 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 208 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 214 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 215 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 216 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 217 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 218 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 220 | 2% | 93% | |
| 221 | 3% | 91% | |
| 222 | 4% | 88% | |
| 223 | 9% | 84% | |
| 224 | 12% | 75% | |
| 225 | 6% | 63% | |
| 226 | 7% | 57% | |
| 227 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 228 | 6% | 43% | |
| 229 | 12% | 37% | |
| 230 | 9% | 25% | |
| 231 | 4% | 17% | |
| 232 | 4% | 13% | |
| 233 | 3% | 9% | |
| 234 | 2% | 7% | |
| 235 | 2% | 4% | |
| 236 | 2% | 2% | |
| 237 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 180 | 2% | 98% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 184 | 2% | 94% | |
| 185 | 6% | 92% | |
| 186 | 8% | 86% | |
| 187 | 15% | 78% | |
| 188 | 9% | 63% | |
| 189 | 6% | 54% | |
| 190 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 191 | 6% | 44% | |
| 192 | 10% | 38% | |
| 193 | 11% | 28% | |
| 194 | 5% | 17% | |
| 195 | 2% | 13% | |
| 196 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 197 | 2% | 9% | |
| 198 | 3% | 7% | |
| 199 | 2% | 4% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 171 | 2% | 96% | |
| 172 | 2% | 94% | |
| 173 | 3% | 92% | |
| 174 | 3% | 90% | |
| 175 | 3% | 86% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 83% | |
| 177 | 6% | 76% | |
| 178 | 8% | 70% | |
| 179 | 10% | 62% | |
| 180 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 181 | 6% | 42% | |
| 182 | 9% | 36% | |
| 183 | 6% | 27% | |
| 184 | 10% | 20% | |
| 185 | 3% | 10% | |
| 186 | 3% | 7% | |
| 187 | 2% | 4% | |
| 188 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 162 | 2% | 98% | |
| 163 | 3% | 96% | |
| 164 | 3% | 93% | |
| 165 | 10% | 90% | |
| 166 | 6% | 80% | |
| 167 | 9% | 73% | |
| 168 | 6% | 64% | |
| 169 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 170 | 10% | 48% | |
| 171 | 8% | 38% | |
| 172 | 6% | 30% | |
| 173 | 7% | 24% | |
| 174 | 3% | 17% | |
| 175 | 3% | 14% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 10% | |
| 177 | 2% | 8% | |
| 178 | 2% | 6% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 152 | 2% | 96% | |
| 153 | 2% | 94% | |
| 154 | 4% | 91% | |
| 155 | 5% | 88% | |
| 156 | 8% | 82% | |
| 157 | 8% | 74% | |
| 158 | 9% | 67% | |
| 159 | 9% | 58% | |
| 160 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 161 | 11% | 44% | |
| 162 | 6% | 33% | |
| 163 | 10% | 27% | |
| 164 | 6% | 17% | |
| 165 | 6% | 11% | |
| 166 | 2% | 5% | |
| 167 | 2% | 4% | |
| 168 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 138 | 2% | 97% | |
| 139 | 2% | 95% | |
| 140 | 5% | 93% | |
| 141 | 3% | 88% | |
| 142 | 5% | 85% | |
| 143 | 7% | 80% | Last Result |
| 144 | 8% | 73% | |
| 145 | 9% | 65% | |
| 146 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 147 | 9% | 45% | |
| 148 | 13% | 36% | |
| 149 | 8% | 23% | |
| 150 | 4% | 15% | |
| 151 | 3% | 11% | |
| 152 | 2% | 7% | |
| 153 | 2% | 5% | |
| 154 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 138 | 2% | 96% | |
| 139 | 2% | 94% | |
| 140 | 5% | 92% | |
| 141 | 4% | 87% | |
| 142 | 5% | 84% | |
| 143 | 7% | 78% | |
| 144 | 8% | 71% | |
| 145 | 9% | 63% | |
| 146 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 147 | 9% | 44% | |
| 148 | 13% | 34% | |
| 149 | 8% | 21% | |
| 150 | 4% | 14% | |
| 151 | 3% | 9% | |
| 152 | 2% | 6% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 154 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 131 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 133 | 5% | 95% | |
| 134 | 7% | 91% | |
| 135 | 9% | 84% | |
| 136 | 8% | 75% | |
| 137 | 5% | 67% | |
| 138 | 9% | 62% | Median |
| 139 | 13% | 53% | |
| 140 | 10% | 41% | |
| 141 | 5% | 31% | |
| 142 | 6% | 26% | |
| 143 | 4% | 20% | |
| 144 | 5% | 16% | |
| 145 | 3% | 12% | |
| 146 | 2% | 9% | |
| 147 | 2% | 7% | |
| 148 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 149 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 125 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 126 | 3% | 98% | |
| 127 | 4% | 95% | |
| 128 | 9% | 91% | |
| 129 | 7% | 82% | |
| 130 | 12% | 75% | |
| 131 | 11% | 63% | |
| 132 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 133 | 8% | 44% | |
| 134 | 8% | 36% | |
| 135 | 5% | 28% | |
| 136 | 4% | 23% | |
| 137 | 4% | 19% | |
| 138 | 5% | 15% | |
| 139 | 2% | 11% | |
| 140 | 3% | 9% | |
| 141 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 142 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 145 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 124 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 125 | 2% | 96% | |
| 126 | 3% | 94% | |
| 127 | 5% | 91% | |
| 128 | 9% | 86% | Last Result |
| 129 | 8% | 77% | |
| 130 | 12% | 69% | |
| 131 | 11% | 57% | |
| 132 | 9% | 46% | Median |
| 133 | 8% | 37% | |
| 134 | 8% | 29% | |
| 135 | 5% | 22% | |
| 136 | 4% | 17% | |
| 137 | 3% | 13% | |
| 138 | 4% | 9% | |
| 139 | 2% | 5% | |
| 140 | 2% | 3% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 117 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 118 | 2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 4% | 96% | |
| 120 | 4% | 92% | |
| 121 | 5% | 89% | Last Result |
| 122 | 4% | 84% | |
| 123 | 8% | 80% | |
| 124 | 6% | 72% | |
| 125 | 8% | 66% | |
| 126 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 127 | 17% | 45% | |
| 128 | 7% | 28% | |
| 129 | 7% | 21% | |
| 130 | 4% | 14% | |
| 131 | 3% | 9% | |
| 132 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 133 | 2% | 5% | |
| 134 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 2% | 97% | |
| 119 | 4% | 95% | |
| 120 | 4% | 92% | |
| 121 | 5% | 88% | |
| 122 | 4% | 83% | |
| 123 | 8% | 79% | |
| 124 | 6% | 71% | |
| 125 | 9% | 65% | |
| 126 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 127 | 17% | 43% | |
| 128 | 7% | 26% | |
| 129 | 7% | 19% | |
| 130 | 4% | 12% | |
| 131 | 3% | 8% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 133 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 134 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 5% | 97% | |
| 97 | 7% | 92% | |
| 98 | 7% | 85% | |
| 99 | 5% | 79% | |
| 100 | 14% | 73% | |
| 101 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 102 | 10% | 48% | |
| 103 | 9% | 38% | |
| 104 | 5% | 29% | |
| 105 | 5% | 24% | |
| 106 | 5% | 19% | |
| 107 | 3% | 15% | |
| 108 | 3% | 11% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 110 | 2% | 7% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 112 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 5–11 November 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2359
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.39%