Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 8 November–5 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.3% | 28.4–30.2% | 28.2–30.5% | 27.9–30.7% | 27.5–31.1% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.2% | 20.4–22.0% | 20.2–22.3% | 20.0–22.5% | 19.6–22.8% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.0% | 18.2–19.8% | 18.0–20.0% | 17.8–20.2% | 17.5–20.6% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.5–10.7% | 9.4–10.9% | 9.2–11.1% | 9.0–11.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0–8.0% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.7–8.3% | 6.5–8.6% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.3–5.2% | 4.2–5.3% | 4.1–5.4% | 3.9–5.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.4–4.1% | 3.3–4.2% | 3.2–4.3% | 3.0–4.5% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.6–3.3% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 111 | 107–114 | 105–116 | 103–116 | 102–118 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 80 | 77–83 | 76–84 | 75–85 | 73–87 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 72 | 68–75 | 67–76 | 67–77 | 64–78 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 38 | 36–41 | 35–41 | 35–42 | 33–43 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 28 | 26–31 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 0–21 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 2% | 96% | |
| 106 | 4% | 94% | |
| 107 | 5% | 90% | |
| 108 | 7% | 85% | |
| 109 | 5% | 78% | |
| 110 | 19% | 74% | |
| 111 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 112 | 16% | 36% | |
| 113 | 7% | 20% | |
| 114 | 4% | 13% | |
| 115 | 3% | 10% | |
| 116 | 4% | 6% | |
| 117 | 2% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 4% | 95% | |
| 77 | 8% | 91% | |
| 78 | 11% | 84% | |
| 79 | 15% | 73% | |
| 80 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 81 | 11% | 42% | |
| 82 | 16% | 31% | |
| 83 | 5% | 15% | |
| 84 | 5% | 10% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 8% | 90% | |
| 70 | 9% | 81% | |
| 71 | 9% | 72% | |
| 72 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 73 | 18% | 41% | |
| 74 | 12% | 23% | |
| 75 | 5% | 10% | |
| 76 | 2% | 5% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 5% | 98% | |
| 36 | 10% | 93% | |
| 37 | 19% | 83% | |
| 38 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 39 | 20% | 44% | |
| 40 | 13% | 24% | |
| 41 | 8% | 11% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 8% | 96% | |
| 27 | 15% | 87% | |
| 28 | 26% | 73% | Median |
| 29 | 23% | 47% | |
| 30 | 12% | 24% | |
| 31 | 8% | 11% | Last Result |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 16 | 15% | 97% | |
| 17 | 19% | 82% | |
| 18 | 36% | 63% | Median |
| 19 | 18% | 27% | |
| 20 | 7% | 9% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0% | 15% | |
| 6 | 0% | 15% | |
| 7 | 0% | 15% | |
| 8 | 0% | 15% | |
| 9 | 0% | 15% | |
| 10 | 0% | 15% | |
| 11 | 0% | 15% | |
| 12 | 0% | 15% | |
| 13 | 0% | 15% | |
| 14 | 0% | 15% | |
| 15 | 11% | 15% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 220 | 100% | 212–224 | 210–225 | 208–226 | 206–231 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 191 | 100% | 185–195 | 183–196 | 181–197 | 178–201 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 179 | 93% | 175–185 | 174–187 | 173–189 | 171–192 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 170 | 7% | 164–174 | 162–175 | 160–176 | 157–178 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 150 | 0% | 147–158 | 146–160 | 145–161 | 143–164 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 152 | 0% | 147–156 | 145–157 | 144–158 | 141–160 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 149 | 0% | 144–153 | 142–154 | 140–156 | 138–158 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 140 | 0% | 137–148 | 135–150 | 134–152 | 133–154 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 126 | 0% | 121–130 | 120–131 | 118–132 | 114–134 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 126 | 0% | 121–130 | 120–131 | 118–132 | 114–134 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 112 | 0% | 109–121 | 107–123 | 106–124 | 105–127 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 109 | 0% | 104–112 | 103–113 | 101–114 | 100–116 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 109 | 0% | 104–112 | 103–113 | 101–114 | 100–116 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 207 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 208 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 209 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 210 | 2% | 96% | |
| 211 | 2% | 94% | |
| 212 | 2% | 91% | |
| 213 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 214 | 3% | 88% | |
| 215 | 2% | 85% | |
| 216 | 3% | 83% | |
| 217 | 8% | 80% | |
| 218 | 6% | 72% | |
| 219 | 11% | 66% | Median |
| 220 | 17% | 56% | |
| 221 | 9% | 38% | |
| 222 | 14% | 30% | |
| 223 | 5% | 16% | |
| 224 | 6% | 11% | |
| 225 | 2% | 5% | |
| 226 | 2% | 3% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 228 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 182 | 2% | 97% | |
| 183 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 184 | 3% | 94% | |
| 185 | 2% | 91% | |
| 186 | 4% | 89% | |
| 187 | 3% | 85% | |
| 188 | 5% | 82% | |
| 189 | 7% | 77% | |
| 190 | 10% | 69% | |
| 191 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 192 | 12% | 44% | |
| 193 | 12% | 32% | |
| 194 | 7% | 20% | |
| 195 | 3% | 12% | |
| 196 | 5% | 9% | |
| 197 | 2% | 4% | |
| 198 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 173 | 2% | 98% | |
| 174 | 3% | 96% | |
| 175 | 6% | 93% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 87% | |
| 177 | 13% | 82% | Median |
| 178 | 14% | 68% | |
| 179 | 10% | 54% | |
| 180 | 10% | 43% | |
| 181 | 11% | 34% | |
| 182 | 4% | 23% | |
| 183 | 4% | 19% | |
| 184 | 2% | 15% | |
| 185 | 4% | 13% | |
| 186 | 2% | 9% | |
| 187 | 2% | 6% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 189 | 2% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 160 | 2% | 98% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 162 | 2% | 95% | |
| 163 | 2% | 94% | |
| 164 | 4% | 91% | |
| 165 | 2% | 87% | |
| 166 | 4% | 85% | |
| 167 | 4% | 81% | |
| 168 | 11% | 77% | |
| 169 | 10% | 66% | |
| 170 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 171 | 14% | 46% | |
| 172 | 13% | 32% | |
| 173 | 6% | 18% | |
| 174 | 6% | 13% | |
| 175 | 3% | 7% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 4% | |
| 177 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 145 | 2% | 98% | |
| 146 | 5% | 96% | |
| 147 | 8% | 91% | |
| 148 | 10% | 83% | |
| 149 | 15% | 73% | Median |
| 150 | 10% | 58% | |
| 151 | 13% | 49% | |
| 152 | 9% | 36% | |
| 153 | 6% | 27% | |
| 154 | 4% | 22% | |
| 155 | 2% | 18% | |
| 156 | 3% | 15% | |
| 157 | 2% | 13% | |
| 158 | 2% | 11% | |
| 159 | 3% | 9% | |
| 160 | 2% | 6% | |
| 161 | 2% | 4% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 98% | |
| 145 | 2% | 96% | |
| 146 | 2% | 93% | |
| 147 | 4% | 91% | |
| 148 | 5% | 87% | |
| 149 | 6% | 82% | |
| 150 | 5% | 76% | |
| 151 | 11% | 71% | |
| 152 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 153 | 14% | 48% | |
| 154 | 15% | 34% | |
| 155 | 6% | 19% | |
| 156 | 5% | 13% | |
| 157 | 4% | 8% | |
| 158 | 3% | 4% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 140 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 142 | 2% | 96% | |
| 143 | 2% | 94% | |
| 144 | 4% | 92% | |
| 145 | 4% | 88% | |
| 146 | 6% | 84% | |
| 147 | 8% | 77% | |
| 148 | 11% | 69% | |
| 149 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 150 | 10% | 43% | |
| 151 | 13% | 34% | |
| 152 | 8% | 21% | |
| 153 | 5% | 12% | |
| 154 | 3% | 7% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 156 | 2% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 135 | 2% | 97% | |
| 136 | 3% | 95% | |
| 137 | 4% | 92% | |
| 138 | 12% | 87% | |
| 139 | 10% | 75% | Median |
| 140 | 18% | 65% | |
| 141 | 14% | 47% | |
| 142 | 5% | 33% | |
| 143 | 5% | 29% | |
| 144 | 6% | 24% | |
| 145 | 2% | 18% | |
| 146 | 2% | 16% | |
| 147 | 1.5% | 14% | |
| 148 | 2% | 12% | |
| 149 | 2% | 10% | |
| 150 | 3% | 8% | |
| 151 | 2% | 5% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 119 | 2% | 97% | |
| 120 | 2% | 95% | |
| 121 | 4% | 93% | |
| 122 | 4% | 89% | |
| 123 | 6% | 86% | |
| 124 | 6% | 80% | |
| 125 | 15% | 74% | |
| 126 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 127 | 10% | 48% | |
| 128 | 11% | 39% | |
| 129 | 14% | 27% | |
| 130 | 6% | 13% | |
| 131 | 3% | 7% | |
| 132 | 3% | 4% | |
| 133 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 119 | 2% | 97% | |
| 120 | 2% | 95% | |
| 121 | 4% | 93% | |
| 122 | 4% | 89% | |
| 123 | 6% | 86% | Last Result |
| 124 | 6% | 80% | |
| 125 | 15% | 74% | |
| 126 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 127 | 10% | 48% | |
| 128 | 11% | 39% | |
| 129 | 14% | 27% | |
| 130 | 6% | 13% | |
| 131 | 3% | 7% | |
| 132 | 3% | 4% | |
| 133 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 96% | |
| 108 | 4% | 94% | |
| 109 | 3% | 90% | |
| 110 | 18% | 87% | |
| 111 | 18% | 69% | Median |
| 112 | 16% | 51% | |
| 113 | 7% | 35% | |
| 114 | 4% | 28% | |
| 115 | 3% | 25% | |
| 116 | 4% | 21% | Last Result |
| 117 | 2% | 17% | |
| 118 | 2% | 15% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 121 | 2% | 11% | |
| 122 | 2% | 10% | |
| 123 | 4% | 8% | |
| 124 | 2% | 4% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 2% | 97% | |
| 103 | 3% | 96% | |
| 104 | 6% | 93% | |
| 105 | 5% | 87% | |
| 106 | 7% | 83% | |
| 107 | 12% | 76% | |
| 108 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 52% | |
| 110 | 11% | 39% | |
| 111 | 15% | 28% | |
| 112 | 6% | 14% | |
| 113 | 3% | 7% | |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 2% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 102 | 2% | 97% | |
| 103 | 3% | 96% | |
| 104 | 6% | 93% | |
| 105 | 5% | 87% | |
| 106 | 7% | 83% | |
| 107 | 12% | 76% | |
| 108 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 109 | 12% | 52% | |
| 110 | 11% | 39% | |
| 111 | 15% | 28% | |
| 112 | 6% | 14% | |
| 113 | 3% | 7% | |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 8 November–5 December 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 4233
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.81%