Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 6–16 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 31.1% 30.3–31.9% 30.1–32.1% 29.9–32.3% 29.6–32.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 20.0% 19.3–20.7% 19.2–20.9% 19.0–21.0% 18.7–21.3%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 19.7% 19.1–20.4% 18.9–20.6% 18.7–20.7% 18.4–21.0%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 9.7% 9.2–10.2% 9.1–10.3% 9.0–10.5% 8.7–10.7%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 7.0% 6.6–7.4% 6.5–7.6% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 5.2% 4.8–5.6% 4.7–5.7% 4.7–5.8% 4.5–6.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 3.2% 2.9–3.5% 2.9–3.6% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8%
Liberalerna 5.5% 2.8% 2.5–3.1% 2.5–3.2% 2.4–3.2% 2.3–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 117 114–120 114–121 113–121 112–123
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 75 73–78 72–78 72–79 71–80
Sverigedemokraterna 62 74 71–76 71–77 70–78 70–79
Vänsterpartiet 28 36 35–38 34–39 34–39 33–40
Centerpartiet 31 26 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Kristdemokraterna 22 20 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0.3% 99.9%  
112 1.2% 99.6%  
113 2% 98%  
114 8% 96%  
115 16% 88%  
116 10% 73%  
117 14% 63% Median
118 22% 48%  
119 14% 26%  
120 7% 13%  
121 4% 6%  
122 1.3% 2%  
123 0.4% 0.6%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
71 1.4% 99.5%  
72 4% 98%  
73 11% 94%  
74 18% 83%  
75 24% 65% Median
76 20% 41%  
77 10% 21%  
78 7% 11%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.1% 1.4%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.5%  
71 7% 97%  
72 11% 90%  
73 16% 79%  
74 22% 63% Median
75 16% 41%  
76 16% 25%  
77 5% 9%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.9%  
34 6% 98.8%  
35 19% 93%  
36 24% 74% Median
37 22% 50%  
38 18% 27%  
39 8% 9%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.7% 100%  
24 5% 99.3%  
25 16% 94%  
26 28% 78% Median
27 34% 50%  
28 12% 16%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.6% 0.6%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 11% 98%  
19 30% 87%  
20 38% 57% Median
21 15% 19%  
22 3% 4% Last Result
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 219 100% 216–222 215–222 214–223 213–224
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 192 100% 189–195 189–196 188–197 186–198
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 180 99.1% 177–183 176–184 176–184 174–186
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 169 0.9% 166–172 165–173 165–173 163–175
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 154 0% 151–157 150–157 149–158 148–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 154 0% 151–157 150–157 149–158 148–159
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 149 0% 146–152 146–153 145–154 144–155
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 144 0% 140–146 140–147 139–148 138–150
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 121 0% 119–124 118–125 117–126 116–127
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 121 0% 119–124 118–125 117–126 116–127
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 117 0% 114–120 114–121 113–121 112–123
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 102 0% 99–104 98–105 98–106 96–107
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 102 0% 99–104 98–105 98–106 96–107

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0.1% 100%  
212 0.2% 99.9%  
213 1.0% 99.7%  
214 2% 98.7%  
215 4% 97%  
216 10% 93%  
217 14% 83%  
218 16% 69% Median
219 14% 53%  
220 19% 39%  
221 8% 20%  
222 8% 12%  
223 2% 4%  
224 2% 2%  
225 0.3% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100% Majority
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 100%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.4% 99.8%  
187 1.4% 99.5%  
188 3% 98%  
189 6% 95%  
190 11% 90%  
191 15% 78%  
192 15% 63% Median
193 20% 48%  
194 9% 27%  
195 9% 18%  
196 6% 9%  
197 2% 3%  
198 0.8% 1.2%  
199 0.3% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0.3% 100%  
174 0.5% 99.7%  
175 1.4% 99.1% Majority
176 3% 98%  
177 8% 95%  
178 11% 87%  
179 15% 76% Median
180 19% 60%  
181 17% 42%  
182 10% 25%  
183 7% 15%  
184 7% 9%  
185 1.4% 2%  
186 0.6% 0.8%  
187 0.2% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0.2% 99.9%  
163 0.6% 99.8%  
164 1.4% 99.2%  
165 7% 98%  
166 7% 91%  
167 10% 85%  
168 17% 75%  
169 19% 58% Median
170 15% 40%  
171 11% 24%  
172 8% 13%  
173 3% 5%  
174 1.4% 2%  
175 0.5% 0.9% Majority
176 0.3% 0.3%  
177 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100% Last Result
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 100%  
147 0.3% 99.9%  
148 0.8% 99.6%  
149 2% 98.8%  
150 5% 97%  
151 9% 92%  
152 11% 83%  
153 20% 72% Median
154 18% 51%  
155 12% 33%  
156 9% 21%  
157 8% 13%  
158 3% 4%  
159 1.2% 2%  
160 0.3% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 100%  
147 0.3% 99.9%  
148 0.8% 99.6%  
149 2% 98.8%  
150 5% 97%  
151 9% 92%  
152 11% 83%  
153 20% 72% Median
154 18% 51%  
155 12% 33%  
156 9% 21%  
157 8% 13%  
158 3% 4%  
159 1.2% 2%  
160 0.3% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0.2% 99.9%  
144 1.4% 99.7%  
145 3% 98%  
146 9% 96%  
147 7% 87%  
148 14% 80%  
149 23% 65% Median
150 14% 43%  
151 12% 28%  
152 8% 16%  
153 5% 8%  
154 2% 3%  
155 0.9% 1.3%  
156 0.3% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0.4% 99.9%  
138 0.8% 99.5%  
139 2% 98.7%  
140 8% 96%  
141 10% 89%  
142 11% 79%  
143 15% 68% Median
144 15% 53%  
145 19% 38%  
146 13% 20%  
147 3% 7%  
148 2% 4%  
149 1.0% 2%  
150 0.4% 0.5%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 1.1% 99.6%  
117 3% 98.5%  
118 6% 96%  
119 11% 90%  
120 16% 80%  
121 16% 63% Median
122 21% 47%  
123 12% 26%  
124 7% 14%  
125 4% 7%  
126 2% 3%  
127 0.6% 0.9%  
128 0.2% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 1.1% 99.6%  
117 3% 98.5%  
118 6% 96%  
119 11% 90%  
120 16% 80%  
121 16% 63% Median
122 21% 47%  
123 12% 26% Last Result
124 7% 14%  
125 4% 7%  
126 2% 3%  
127 0.6% 0.9%  
128 0.2% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0.3% 99.9%  
112 1.2% 99.6%  
113 2% 98%  
114 8% 96%  
115 16% 88%  
116 10% 73% Last Result
117 14% 63% Median
118 22% 48%  
119 14% 26%  
120 7% 13%  
121 4% 6%  
122 1.3% 2%  
123 0.4% 0.6%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.5% 99.8%  
97 1.5% 99.3%  
98 4% 98%  
99 6% 94%  
100 18% 87%  
101 16% 69% Median
102 27% 54%  
103 8% 26%  
104 12% 19%  
105 3% 7%  
106 3% 4%  
107 0.5% 0.8%  
108 0.3% 0.3%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.5% 99.8%  
97 1.5% 99.3%  
98 4% 98%  
99 6% 94%  
100 18% 87%  
101 16% 69% Last Result, Median
102 27% 54%  
103 8% 26%  
104 12% 19%  
105 3% 7%  
106 3% 4%  
107 0.5% 0.8%  
108 0.3% 0.3%  
109 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations