Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 7–20 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.0% | 27.5–30.5% | 27.1–30.9% | 26.8–31.3% | 26.1–32.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 20.0% | 18.7–21.3% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.1–22.0% | 17.5–22.7% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 20.0% | 18.7–21.3% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.1–22.0% | 17.5–22.7% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.1–11.0% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.2–12.1% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.5–8.8% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 108 | 101–115 | 100–118 | 99–119 | 96–121 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 75 | 69–80 | 68–82 | 67–83 | 65–86 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 75 | 69–80 | 68–82 | 67–83 | 64–86 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 37 | 34–41 | 33–43 | 32–44 | 30–46 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 26 | 23–30 | 22–31 | 22–32 | 20–33 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 19 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 0–25 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 100 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 101 | 5% | 95% | |
| 102 | 3% | 89% | |
| 103 | 6% | 86% | |
| 104 | 5% | 80% | |
| 105 | 6% | 75% | |
| 106 | 9% | 69% | |
| 107 | 7% | 60% | |
| 108 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 109 | 9% | 46% | |
| 110 | 4% | 37% | |
| 111 | 7% | 33% | |
| 112 | 5% | 26% | |
| 113 | 4% | 22% | |
| 114 | 8% | 18% | |
| 115 | 3% | 10% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 117 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 118 | 3% | 5% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 3% | 93% | |
| 70 | 5% | 90% | Last Result |
| 71 | 8% | 85% | |
| 72 | 6% | 77% | |
| 73 | 7% | 71% | |
| 74 | 11% | 64% | |
| 75 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 76 | 9% | 44% | |
| 77 | 8% | 35% | |
| 78 | 8% | 27% | |
| 79 | 3% | 18% | |
| 80 | 7% | 15% | |
| 81 | 2% | 8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 6% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 3% | 93% | |
| 70 | 5% | 89% | |
| 71 | 6% | 84% | |
| 72 | 8% | 78% | |
| 73 | 9% | 70% | |
| 74 | 6% | 61% | |
| 75 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 76 | 11% | 45% | |
| 77 | 6% | 34% | |
| 78 | 5% | 27% | |
| 79 | 8% | 22% | |
| 80 | 4% | 14% | |
| 81 | 3% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 6% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 4% | 95% | |
| 34 | 7% | 91% | |
| 35 | 12% | 84% | |
| 36 | 9% | 72% | |
| 37 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 38 | 12% | 49% | |
| 39 | 10% | 37% | |
| 40 | 7% | 27% | |
| 41 | 12% | 20% | |
| 42 | 3% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98% | |
| 23 | 7% | 95% | |
| 24 | 10% | 88% | |
| 25 | 15% | 78% | |
| 26 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 27 | 15% | 48% | |
| 28 | 13% | 33% | |
| 29 | 8% | 19% | |
| 30 | 6% | 11% | |
| 31 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 0% | 98% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | |
| 16 | 9% | 94% | |
| 17 | 12% | 85% | |
| 18 | 21% | 73% | |
| 19 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 35% | |
| 21 | 13% | 24% | |
| 22 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | |
| 5 | 0% | 52% | |
| 6 | 0% | 52% | |
| 7 | 0% | 52% | |
| 8 | 0% | 52% | |
| 9 | 0% | 52% | |
| 10 | 0% | 52% | |
| 11 | 0% | 52% | |
| 12 | 0% | 52% | |
| 13 | 0% | 52% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 52% | |
| 15 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 34% | Last Result |
| 17 | 10% | 19% | |
| 18 | 6% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 209 | 100% | 201–218 | 199–221 | 197–223 | 193–228 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 183 | 90% | 175–191 | 172–194 | 171–196 | 168–201 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 181 | 81% | 172–189 | 171–192 | 170–194 | 166–198 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 168 | 19% | 160–177 | 157–178 | 155–179 | 151–183 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 155 | 0.1% | 146–163 | 143–165 | 142–167 | 138–171 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 150 | 0% | 142–158 | 140–159 | 138–161 | 135–165 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 145 | 0% | 138–155 | 137–156 | 135–158 | 132–161 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 144 | 0% | 134–152 | 132–155 | 130–157 | 128–160 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 120 | 0% | 113–127 | 111–129 | 109–131 | 104–135 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 120 | 0% | 113–126 | 111–128 | 108–130 | 103–133 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 117 | 0% | 107–127 | 105–128 | 104–130 | 101–132 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 102 | 0% | 95–107 | 94–110 | 93–112 | 90–116 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 101 | 0% | 95–107 | 94–109 | 93–111 | 89–115 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 195 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 196 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 198 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 199 | 3% | 96% | |
| 200 | 2% | 93% | |
| 201 | 4% | 91% | Last Result |
| 202 | 4% | 86% | |
| 203 | 5% | 83% | |
| 204 | 5% | 78% | |
| 205 | 2% | 73% | |
| 206 | 6% | 71% | |
| 207 | 5% | 65% | |
| 208 | 5% | 60% | |
| 209 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 210 | 4% | 49% | |
| 211 | 5% | 45% | |
| 212 | 4% | 40% | |
| 213 | 4% | 36% | |
| 214 | 9% | 31% | |
| 215 | 5% | 23% | |
| 216 | 2% | 18% | |
| 217 | 4% | 16% | |
| 218 | 2% | 12% | |
| 219 | 2% | 10% | |
| 220 | 3% | 8% | |
| 221 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 222 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 223 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 224 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 230 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 98% | |
| 172 | 3% | 96% | |
| 173 | 2% | 93% | |
| 174 | 2% | 92% | |
| 175 | 3% | 90% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 87% | |
| 177 | 3% | 84% | |
| 178 | 6% | 81% | |
| 179 | 4% | 74% | |
| 180 | 6% | 70% | |
| 181 | 7% | 64% | |
| 182 | 4% | 57% | |
| 183 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 184 | 6% | 47% | |
| 185 | 5% | 41% | |
| 186 | 3% | 36% | |
| 187 | 6% | 34% | |
| 188 | 8% | 27% | |
| 189 | 6% | 20% | |
| 190 | 3% | 14% | |
| 191 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 192 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 193 | 2% | 8% | |
| 194 | 2% | 6% | |
| 195 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 196 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 170 | 2% | 98% | |
| 171 | 5% | 95% | |
| 172 | 2% | 90% | |
| 173 | 2% | 89% | |
| 174 | 5% | 86% | |
| 175 | 3% | 81% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 78% | |
| 177 | 3% | 74% | |
| 178 | 6% | 71% | |
| 179 | 6% | 65% | |
| 180 | 4% | 60% | |
| 181 | 8% | 55% | |
| 182 | 8% | 47% | |
| 183 | 3% | 39% | |
| 184 | 8% | 35% | |
| 185 | 6% | 28% | |
| 186 | 4% | 22% | Median |
| 187 | 3% | 17% | |
| 188 | 4% | 14% | |
| 189 | 2% | 11% | |
| 190 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 191 | 2% | 7% | |
| 192 | 2% | 5% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 155 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 157 | 2% | 97% | |
| 158 | 2% | 95% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 160 | 2% | 92% | |
| 161 | 4% | 89% | |
| 162 | 3% | 86% | |
| 163 | 4% | 83% | |
| 164 | 6% | 78% | |
| 165 | 8% | 72% | |
| 166 | 3% | 65% | |
| 167 | 8% | 61% | |
| 168 | 8% | 53% | |
| 169 | 4% | 45% | Median |
| 170 | 6% | 40% | |
| 171 | 6% | 35% | |
| 172 | 3% | 29% | |
| 173 | 3% | 26% | |
| 174 | 3% | 22% | |
| 175 | 5% | 19% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 14% | |
| 177 | 2% | 11% | |
| 178 | 5% | 10% | |
| 179 | 2% | 5% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 141 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 142 | 2% | 98% | |
| 143 | 2% | 96% | |
| 144 | 2% | 94% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 93% | |
| 146 | 5% | 90% | |
| 147 | 3% | 85% | |
| 148 | 6% | 83% | |
| 149 | 3% | 77% | |
| 150 | 4% | 74% | |
| 151 | 4% | 69% | |
| 152 | 5% | 65% | |
| 153 | 4% | 60% | |
| 154 | 5% | 56% | |
| 155 | 8% | 50% | |
| 156 | 4% | 42% | |
| 157 | 5% | 38% | |
| 158 | 8% | 33% | |
| 159 | 5% | 25% | |
| 160 | 2% | 20% | Median |
| 161 | 5% | 18% | |
| 162 | 2% | 13% | |
| 163 | 3% | 11% | |
| 164 | 3% | 8% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 137 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 139 | 2% | 97% | |
| 140 | 2% | 96% | |
| 141 | 3% | 94% | |
| 142 | 2% | 91% | |
| 143 | 3% | 89% | |
| 144 | 4% | 86% | |
| 145 | 5% | 82% | |
| 146 | 7% | 76% | |
| 147 | 6% | 69% | |
| 148 | 7% | 64% | |
| 149 | 5% | 57% | |
| 150 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 151 | 3% | 41% | |
| 152 | 7% | 38% | |
| 153 | 5% | 31% | |
| 154 | 4% | 26% | |
| 155 | 4% | 22% | |
| 156 | 3% | 18% | |
| 157 | 4% | 15% | |
| 158 | 2% | 11% | |
| 159 | 4% | 8% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 136 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 137 | 4% | 95% | |
| 138 | 3% | 91% | |
| 139 | 3% | 87% | |
| 140 | 5% | 84% | |
| 141 | 5% | 79% | |
| 142 | 5% | 74% | |
| 143 | 6% | 69% | |
| 144 | 6% | 63% | |
| 145 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 146 | 7% | 50% | |
| 147 | 5% | 43% | |
| 148 | 8% | 38% | |
| 149 | 4% | 30% | |
| 150 | 5% | 27% | |
| 151 | 3% | 22% | |
| 152 | 4% | 19% | |
| 153 | 2% | 15% | |
| 154 | 2% | 12% | |
| 155 | 4% | 10% | |
| 156 | 2% | 6% | |
| 157 | 2% | 4% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 130 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 132 | 2% | 96% | |
| 133 | 3% | 94% | |
| 134 | 3% | 91% | |
| 135 | 3% | 88% | |
| 136 | 4% | 84% | |
| 137 | 3% | 81% | |
| 138 | 3% | 77% | |
| 139 | 3% | 74% | |
| 140 | 7% | 71% | |
| 141 | 5% | 64% | |
| 142 | 4% | 58% | |
| 143 | 4% | 55% | |
| 144 | 4% | 51% | |
| 145 | 7% | 47% | |
| 146 | 6% | 40% | |
| 147 | 7% | 34% | |
| 148 | 6% | 27% | |
| 149 | 3% | 21% | Median |
| 150 | 3% | 18% | |
| 151 | 3% | 15% | |
| 152 | 3% | 13% | |
| 153 | 2% | 10% | |
| 154 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 155 | 2% | 6% | |
| 156 | 2% | 4% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 111 | 2% | 96% | |
| 112 | 3% | 94% | |
| 113 | 4% | 91% | |
| 114 | 3% | 88% | |
| 115 | 5% | 84% | |
| 116 | 4% | 79% | |
| 117 | 4% | 75% | |
| 118 | 12% | 71% | |
| 119 | 7% | 59% | |
| 120 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 121 | 4% | 44% | |
| 122 | 5% | 40% | |
| 123 | 7% | 35% | |
| 124 | 7% | 28% | |
| 125 | 5% | 21% | |
| 126 | 4% | 16% | |
| 127 | 3% | 11% | |
| 128 | 3% | 8% | |
| 129 | 2% | 6% | |
| 130 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 111 | 2% | 96% | |
| 112 | 3% | 94% | |
| 113 | 4% | 91% | |
| 114 | 4% | 87% | |
| 115 | 5% | 83% | |
| 116 | 4% | 78% | |
| 117 | 5% | 74% | |
| 118 | 12% | 70% | |
| 119 | 7% | 58% | |
| 120 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 121 | 5% | 43% | |
| 122 | 5% | 38% | |
| 123 | 7% | 33% | Last Result |
| 124 | 7% | 26% | |
| 125 | 5% | 19% | |
| 126 | 4% | 14% | |
| 127 | 3% | 10% | |
| 128 | 2% | 7% | |
| 129 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 104 | 2% | 98% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 106 | 3% | 95% | |
| 107 | 4% | 92% | |
| 108 | 4% | 88% | |
| 109 | 5% | 84% | |
| 110 | 2% | 78% | |
| 111 | 4% | 76% | |
| 112 | 3% | 73% | |
| 113 | 3% | 69% | |
| 114 | 7% | 66% | |
| 115 | 3% | 60% | |
| 116 | 4% | 56% | Last Result |
| 117 | 5% | 52% | |
| 118 | 6% | 48% | |
| 119 | 5% | 42% | |
| 120 | 5% | 37% | |
| 121 | 4% | 32% | |
| 122 | 6% | 27% | |
| 123 | 4% | 21% | Median |
| 124 | 4% | 18% | |
| 125 | 2% | 14% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 127 | 3% | 10% | |
| 128 | 3% | 7% | |
| 129 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 130 | 2% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 96% | |
| 95 | 5% | 93% | |
| 96 | 4% | 88% | |
| 97 | 7% | 84% | |
| 98 | 5% | 77% | |
| 99 | 7% | 72% | |
| 100 | 10% | 66% | |
| 101 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 102 | 8% | 51% | |
| 103 | 5% | 43% | |
| 104 | 9% | 37% | |
| 105 | 8% | 28% | |
| 106 | 6% | 20% | |
| 107 | 5% | 14% | |
| 108 | 2% | 9% | |
| 109 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 110 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 112 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 95% | |
| 95 | 5% | 92% | |
| 96 | 4% | 87% | |
| 97 | 7% | 83% | |
| 98 | 5% | 76% | |
| 99 | 7% | 71% | |
| 100 | 10% | 64% | |
| 101 | 5% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 102 | 8% | 49% | |
| 103 | 6% | 41% | |
| 104 | 9% | 36% | |
| 105 | 8% | 27% | |
| 106 | 6% | 19% | |
| 107 | 5% | 13% | |
| 108 | 2% | 8% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 110 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 7–20 December 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1581
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.16%