Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 28 December 2021–5 January 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.2% | 28.0–30.4% | 27.7–30.7% | 27.4–31.0% | 26.9–31.6% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.8% | 20.8–22.9% | 20.5–23.2% | 20.2–23.5% | 19.7–24.0% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 17.8% | 16.8–18.8% | 16.6–19.1% | 16.3–19.4% | 15.9–19.9% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.6–10.1% | 8.4–10.3% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6–9.1% | 7.4–9.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.9–6.1% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 110 | 106–115 | 105–116 | 104–117 | 102–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 83 | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 74–91 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 68 | 64–72 | 62–72 | 62–73 | 60–75 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 35 | 33–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 | 30–41 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 32 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 28–36 | 26–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 21 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–16 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 105 | 3% | 97% | |
| 106 | 5% | 93% | |
| 107 | 6% | 89% | |
| 108 | 6% | 82% | |
| 109 | 12% | 76% | |
| 110 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 111 | 6% | 45% | |
| 112 | 10% | 39% | |
| 113 | 10% | 29% | |
| 114 | 6% | 18% | |
| 115 | 4% | 12% | |
| 116 | 4% | 8% | |
| 117 | 2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 98% | |
| 78 | 3% | 95% | |
| 79 | 9% | 92% | |
| 80 | 7% | 83% | |
| 81 | 9% | 76% | |
| 82 | 13% | 67% | |
| 83 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 84 | 17% | 46% | |
| 85 | 11% | 29% | |
| 86 | 7% | 18% | |
| 87 | 4% | 11% | |
| 88 | 3% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 10% | 92% | |
| 65 | 5% | 82% | |
| 66 | 12% | 77% | |
| 67 | 12% | 66% | |
| 68 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 69 | 16% | 45% | |
| 70 | 13% | 29% | |
| 71 | 6% | 16% | |
| 72 | 6% | 10% | |
| 73 | 3% | 5% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 6% | 96% | |
| 33 | 10% | 90% | |
| 34 | 20% | 80% | |
| 35 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 36 | 19% | 46% | |
| 37 | 12% | 27% | |
| 38 | 8% | 16% | |
| 39 | 5% | 8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 10% | 94% | |
| 30 | 16% | 84% | |
| 31 | 15% | 68% | Last Result |
| 32 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 33 | 16% | 35% | |
| 34 | 9% | 19% | |
| 35 | 7% | 10% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 8% | 96% | |
| 19 | 14% | 88% | |
| 20 | 20% | 74% | |
| 21 | 18% | 54% | Median |
| 22 | 21% | 36% | Last Result |
| 23 | 9% | 14% | |
| 24 | 3% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 2% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 225 | 100% | 220–230 | 219–231 | 217–232 | 214–234 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 194 | 100% | 188–198 | 187–200 | 186–201 | 182–203 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 178 | 78% | 173–183 | 172–184 | 171–185 | 169–189 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 171 | 22% | 166–176 | 165–177 | 164–178 | 160–180 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 151 | 0% | 145–155 | 144–157 | 143–157 | 140–160 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 146 | 0% | 141–151 | 140–152 | 139–153 | 136–156 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 146 | 0% | 141–151 | 140–152 | 139–153 | 136–156 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 142 | 0% | 138–147 | 137–149 | 135–151 | 133–154 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 136 | 0% | 130–140 | 129–142 | 128–143 | 126–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 135 | 0% | 130–140 | 129–141 | 128–142 | 125–145 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 115 | 0% | 110–119 | 109–121 | 108–122 | 106–127 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 114 | 0% | 110–119 | 109–120 | 108–121 | 105–124 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 110 | 0% | 106–115 | 105–116 | 104–117 | 102–120 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 215 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 217 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 218 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 219 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 220 | 5% | 95% | |
| 221 | 9% | 90% | |
| 222 | 5% | 80% | |
| 223 | 5% | 76% | |
| 224 | 15% | 71% | |
| 225 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 226 | 4% | 44% | |
| 227 | 13% | 40% | |
| 228 | 12% | 26% | |
| 229 | 2% | 14% | |
| 230 | 3% | 12% | |
| 231 | 6% | 9% | |
| 232 | 2% | 3% | |
| 233 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 234 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 235 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 186 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 187 | 2% | 96% | |
| 188 | 6% | 94% | |
| 189 | 3% | 88% | |
| 190 | 7% | 85% | |
| 191 | 6% | 78% | |
| 192 | 9% | 71% | |
| 193 | 8% | 62% | Median |
| 194 | 15% | 54% | |
| 195 | 13% | 39% | |
| 196 | 8% | 26% | |
| 197 | 4% | 18% | |
| 198 | 4% | 13% | |
| 199 | 4% | 9% | |
| 200 | 2% | 5% | |
| 201 | 2% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 171 | 2% | 98% | |
| 172 | 4% | 96% | |
| 173 | 5% | 92% | |
| 174 | 9% | 87% | |
| 175 | 5% | 78% | Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 73% | |
| 177 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 178 | 11% | 53% | |
| 179 | 10% | 42% | |
| 180 | 9% | 32% | |
| 181 | 7% | 23% | |
| 182 | 5% | 16% | |
| 183 | 3% | 11% | |
| 184 | 4% | 8% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 165 | 4% | 96% | |
| 166 | 3% | 92% | |
| 167 | 5% | 89% | |
| 168 | 7% | 84% | |
| 169 | 9% | 77% | |
| 170 | 10% | 68% | |
| 171 | 11% | 58% | |
| 172 | 10% | 47% | Median |
| 173 | 10% | 38% | |
| 174 | 5% | 27% | |
| 175 | 9% | 22% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 13% | |
| 177 | 4% | 8% | |
| 178 | 2% | 4% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 144 | 3% | 97% | |
| 145 | 4% | 94% | |
| 146 | 3% | 90% | |
| 147 | 5% | 87% | |
| 148 | 12% | 82% | |
| 149 | 10% | 70% | |
| 150 | 7% | 59% | |
| 151 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 152 | 12% | 43% | |
| 153 | 11% | 31% | |
| 154 | 4% | 19% | |
| 155 | 6% | 15% | |
| 156 | 3% | 8% | |
| 157 | 3% | 6% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 139 | 2% | 98% | |
| 140 | 4% | 96% | |
| 141 | 3% | 92% | |
| 142 | 5% | 89% | |
| 143 | 10% | 83% | |
| 144 | 10% | 74% | Last Result |
| 145 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 146 | 13% | 54% | |
| 147 | 8% | 41% | |
| 148 | 9% | 33% | |
| 149 | 9% | 24% | |
| 150 | 5% | 15% | |
| 151 | 4% | 10% | |
| 152 | 3% | 6% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 154 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 139 | 2% | 98% | |
| 140 | 4% | 96% | |
| 141 | 3% | 92% | |
| 142 | 5% | 89% | |
| 143 | 10% | 83% | |
| 144 | 10% | 74% | |
| 145 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 146 | 13% | 54% | |
| 147 | 8% | 41% | |
| 148 | 9% | 33% | |
| 149 | 9% | 24% | |
| 150 | 5% | 15% | |
| 151 | 4% | 10% | |
| 152 | 3% | 6% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 154 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 136 | 2% | 97% | |
| 137 | 4% | 95% | |
| 138 | 3% | 91% | |
| 139 | 8% | 88% | |
| 140 | 12% | 80% | |
| 141 | 9% | 68% | |
| 142 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 143 | 12% | 49% | |
| 144 | 10% | 38% | |
| 145 | 7% | 28% | |
| 146 | 8% | 21% | |
| 147 | 4% | 13% | |
| 148 | 4% | 9% | |
| 149 | 2% | 6% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 128 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 129 | 2% | 97% | |
| 130 | 5% | 95% | |
| 131 | 4% | 90% | |
| 132 | 8% | 86% | |
| 133 | 10% | 78% | |
| 134 | 10% | 68% | |
| 135 | 7% | 58% | |
| 136 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 137 | 11% | 38% | |
| 138 | 4% | 27% | |
| 139 | 11% | 23% | |
| 140 | 5% | 13% | |
| 141 | 3% | 8% | |
| 142 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 4% | Last Result |
| 144 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 2% | 96% | |
| 130 | 5% | 94% | |
| 131 | 4% | 89% | |
| 132 | 8% | 85% | |
| 133 | 10% | 76% | |
| 134 | 10% | 66% | |
| 135 | 7% | 56% | |
| 136 | 13% | 49% | Median |
| 137 | 11% | 37% | |
| 138 | 4% | 26% | |
| 139 | 11% | 22% | |
| 140 | 4% | 11% | |
| 141 | 3% | 7% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 3% | 96% | |
| 110 | 4% | 93% | |
| 111 | 9% | 89% | |
| 112 | 7% | 80% | |
| 113 | 10% | 72% | |
| 114 | 11% | 62% | |
| 115 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 116 | 7% | 40% | |
| 117 | 12% | 34% | |
| 118 | 9% | 22% | |
| 119 | 5% | 13% | |
| 120 | 2% | 8% | |
| 121 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 122 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 3% | 96% | |
| 110 | 5% | 92% | |
| 111 | 10% | 88% | |
| 112 | 7% | 78% | |
| 113 | 10% | 71% | |
| 114 | 11% | 61% | |
| 115 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 116 | 7% | 39% | |
| 117 | 12% | 32% | |
| 118 | 9% | 20% | |
| 119 | 5% | 12% | |
| 120 | 2% | 7% | |
| 121 | 3% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 105 | 3% | 97% | |
| 106 | 5% | 93% | |
| 107 | 6% | 89% | |
| 108 | 6% | 82% | |
| 109 | 12% | 76% | |
| 110 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 111 | 6% | 45% | |
| 112 | 10% | 39% | |
| 113 | 10% | 29% | |
| 114 | 6% | 18% | |
| 115 | 4% | 12% | |
| 116 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 117 | 2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 28 December 2021–5 January 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2440
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.87%