Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 7–17 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 32.8% 32.1–33.6% 31.9–33.8% 31.7–33.9% 31.4–34.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 21.4% 20.8–22.1% 20.6–22.3% 20.5–22.4% 20.2–22.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.6% 18.0–19.2% 17.9–19.4% 17.7–19.6% 17.4–19.9%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.6% 8.2–9.1% 8.1–9.2% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 7.0% 6.6–7.4% 6.5–7.5% 6.4–7.6% 6.2–7.8%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 4.9% 4.6–5.3% 4.5–5.3% 4.4–5.4% 4.3–5.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 2.7% 2.5–3.0% 2.4–3.0% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2%
Liberalerna 5.5% 2.4% 2.2–2.7% 2.1–2.7% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 123 120–125 119–126 118–127 117–128
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 80 78–82 77–83 77–84 75–85
Sverigedemokraterna 62 69 67–72 67–73 66–73 65–74
Vänsterpartiet 28 32 31–34 30–34 30–35 29–35
Centerpartiet 31 26 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Kristdemokraterna 22 18 17–20 17–20 16–20 16–21
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0.4% 99.9%  
118 2% 99.4%  
119 4% 97%  
120 9% 93%  
121 13% 85%  
122 21% 72%  
123 18% 52% Median
124 15% 33%  
125 9% 18%  
126 5% 9%  
127 2% 3%  
128 0.8% 1.1%  
129 0.3% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.6% 99.9%  
76 2% 99.3%  
77 7% 98%  
78 11% 91%  
79 19% 80%  
80 21% 61% Median
81 19% 40%  
82 12% 21%  
83 6% 9%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 0.8%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.9% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.0%  
67 9% 97%  
68 13% 88%  
69 25% 75% Median
70 20% 50%  
71 19% 30%  
72 6% 11%  
73 4% 5%  
74 1.1% 1.4%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 1.5% 99.9%  
30 8% 98%  
31 16% 90%  
32 31% 74% Median
33 29% 42%  
34 10% 13%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.7% 100%  
24 5% 99.2%  
25 20% 94%  
26 33% 73% Median
27 27% 40%  
28 10% 13%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 16% 97%  
18 38% 81% Median
19 32% 43%  
20 10% 12%  
21 1.1% 1.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
23 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 229 100% 227–232 226–232 225–233 223–234
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 202 100% 200–205 199–206 199–207 197–208
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 181 99.9% 178–184 177–184 177–185 175–187
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 168 0.1% 165–171 165–172 164–172 162–174
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 155 0% 152–158 151–158 151–159 149–160
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 155 0% 152–158 151–158 151–159 149–160
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 149 0% 147–153 146–153 145–154 144–155
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 149 0% 146–152 145–153 144–153 143–154
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 125 0% 122–127 121–128 120–129 119–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 125 0% 122–127 121–128 120–129 119–130
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 123 0% 120–125 119–126 118–127 117–128
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 106 0% 104–109 103–110 102–110 101–112
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 106 0% 104–109 103–110 102–110 101–112

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0.1% 100%  
223 0.4% 99.9%  
224 1.2% 99.4%  
225 3% 98%  
226 5% 95%  
227 14% 90%  
228 21% 77%  
229 22% 56% Median
230 13% 34%  
231 10% 21%  
232 7% 11%  
233 3% 4%  
234 0.7% 1.1%  
235 0.3% 0.4%  
236 0.1% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100% Majority
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0.1% 100%  
197 0.7% 99.8%  
198 1.4% 99.2%  
199 4% 98%  
200 8% 94%  
201 11% 86%  
202 25% 75%  
203 17% 50% Median
204 14% 32%  
205 9% 18%  
206 5% 9%  
207 2% 4%  
208 0.8% 1.2%  
209 0.3% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0.1% 100%  
175 0.5% 99.9% Majority
176 2% 99.4%  
177 5% 98%  
178 5% 93%  
179 13% 89%  
180 14% 76%  
181 21% 62% Median
182 15% 41%  
183 12% 26%  
184 10% 15%  
185 3% 5%  
186 1.4% 2%  
187 0.6% 0.8%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0.1% 100%  
162 0.6% 99.8%  
163 1.4% 99.2%  
164 3% 98%  
165 10% 95%  
166 12% 85%  
167 15% 74% Median
168 21% 59%  
169 14% 38%  
170 13% 24%  
171 5% 11%  
172 5% 7%  
173 2% 2%  
174 0.5% 0.6%  
175 0.1% 0.1% Majority
176 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100% Last Result
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 100%  
149 0.6% 99.8%  
150 1.1% 99.2%  
151 6% 98%  
152 8% 92%  
153 12% 85%  
154 15% 72%  
155 16% 57% Median
156 19% 41%  
157 12% 22%  
158 5% 10%  
159 3% 5%  
160 1.4% 2%  
161 0.3% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 100%  
149 0.6% 99.8%  
150 1.1% 99.2%  
151 6% 98%  
152 8% 92%  
153 12% 85%  
154 15% 72%  
155 16% 57% Median
156 19% 41%  
157 12% 22%  
158 5% 10%  
159 3% 5%  
160 1.4% 2%  
161 0.3% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0.3% 100%  
144 0.5% 99.7%  
145 2% 99.1%  
146 5% 97%  
147 9% 92%  
148 18% 84%  
149 16% 66% Median
150 16% 50%  
151 13% 34%  
152 11% 21%  
153 5% 10%  
154 4% 5%  
155 1.0% 1.3%  
156 0.3% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0.5% 99.9%  
144 2% 99.4%  
145 3% 97%  
146 6% 94%  
147 16% 88%  
148 14% 72%  
149 23% 58% Median
150 11% 35%  
151 12% 24%  
152 6% 11%  
153 4% 5%  
154 0.9% 1.3%  
155 0.3% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.2% 100%  
119 0.6% 99.8%  
120 2% 99.2%  
121 4% 97%  
122 8% 93%  
123 18% 85%  
124 14% 67% Median
125 18% 52%  
126 15% 34%  
127 11% 19%  
128 3% 7%  
129 3% 4%  
130 0.5% 0.9%  
131 0.3% 0.4%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.2% 100%  
119 0.6% 99.8%  
120 2% 99.2%  
121 4% 97%  
122 8% 93%  
123 18% 85% Last Result
124 14% 67% Median
125 18% 52%  
126 15% 34%  
127 11% 19%  
128 3% 7%  
129 3% 4%  
130 0.5% 0.9%  
131 0.3% 0.4%  
132 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.1% 100% Last Result
117 0.4% 99.9%  
118 2% 99.4%  
119 4% 97%  
120 9% 93%  
121 13% 85%  
122 21% 72%  
123 18% 52% Median
124 15% 33%  
125 9% 18%  
126 5% 9%  
127 2% 3%  
128 0.8% 1.1%  
129 0.3% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.2% 100%  
101 0.7% 99.8%  
102 2% 99.1%  
103 5% 97%  
104 11% 92%  
105 21% 81%  
106 13% 59% Median
107 19% 47%  
108 12% 28%  
109 10% 15%  
110 4% 5%  
111 0.8% 1.5%  
112 0.5% 0.6%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.2% 100%  
101 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
102 2% 99.1%  
103 5% 97%  
104 11% 92%  
105 21% 81%  
106 13% 59% Median
107 19% 47%  
108 12% 28%  
109 10% 15%  
110 4% 5%  
111 0.8% 1.5%  
112 0.5% 0.6%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations