Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 15–27 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 32.9% 31.4–34.5% 31.0–34.9% 30.6–35.3% 29.9–36.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 21.9% 20.6–23.3% 20.3–23.7% 20.0–24.1% 19.3–24.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.9% 17.7–20.3% 17.4–20.6% 17.1–21.0% 16.5–21.6%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.3% 5.4–8.8%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Liberalerna 5.5% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 121 115–127 113–128 112–130 109–132
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 80 76–86 75–88 73–89 71–91
Sverigedemokraterna 62 70 65–75 64–76 63–77 61–80
Vänsterpartiet 28 29 26–33 25–34 25–35 23–36
Centerpartiet 31 26 23–28 22–30 21–30 20–32
Kristdemokraterna 22 22 19–25 19–26 18–27 17–29
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 0 0 0 0 0–15
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.4% 99.7%  
110 0.5% 99.4%  
111 0.7% 98.9%  
112 0.9% 98%  
113 3% 97%  
114 3% 95%  
115 3% 91%  
116 5% 88%  
117 9% 84%  
118 6% 74%  
119 6% 69%  
120 7% 63%  
121 14% 56% Median
122 7% 42%  
123 7% 35%  
124 10% 28%  
125 3% 18%  
126 3% 14%  
127 4% 11%  
128 3% 7%  
129 1.5% 4%  
130 0.5% 3%  
131 2% 2%  
132 0.4% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
71 0.6% 99.6%  
72 0.5% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 0.7% 96%  
75 4% 95%  
76 5% 91%  
77 7% 86%  
78 11% 79%  
79 8% 68%  
80 12% 60% Median
81 4% 49%  
82 12% 44%  
83 3% 32%  
84 12% 29%  
85 2% 16%  
86 6% 14%  
87 1.3% 8%  
88 3% 7%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.7% 99.5%  
62 0.9% 98.8% Last Result
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 4% 93%  
66 8% 88%  
67 7% 80%  
68 10% 73%  
69 12% 63%  
70 6% 51% Median
71 10% 45%  
72 11% 35%  
73 8% 24%  
74 6% 16%  
75 4% 10%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.1% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 1.3% 99.4%  
25 4% 98%  
26 6% 94%  
27 14% 87%  
28 12% 74% Last Result
29 17% 62% Median
30 12% 45%  
31 11% 33%  
32 8% 22%  
33 8% 14%  
34 4% 6%  
35 1.2% 3%  
36 0.9% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.6%  
21 3% 99.1%  
22 6% 96%  
23 8% 90%  
24 17% 82%  
25 11% 65%  
26 19% 54% Median
27 7% 35%  
28 19% 28%  
29 3% 10%  
30 5% 7%  
31 0.8% 2% Last Result
32 1.0% 1.4%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.7%  
18 2% 98.7%  
19 7% 96%  
20 10% 89%  
21 22% 79%  
22 14% 57% Last Result, Median
23 16% 43%  
24 11% 27%  
25 8% 16%  
26 3% 8%  
27 3% 5%  
28 0.9% 1.5%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 0% 2%  
10 0% 2%  
11 0% 2%  
12 0% 2%  
13 0% 2%  
14 0.2% 2%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 227 100% 221–233 220–235 218–236 214–238
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 202 100% 195–208 194–209 192–211 189–213
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 177 64% 169–182 168–184 167–186 165–190
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 172 36% 167–180 165–181 163–182 159–184
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 150 0% 144–157 143–159 142–160 139–164
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 150 0% 145–157 143–159 141–160 138–161
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 150 0% 144–156 142–159 141–160 138–163
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 147 0% 141–153 139–155 138–156 135–160
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 129 0% 123–134 120–136 119–137 117–140
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 129 0% 123–134 120–136 119–137 117–140
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 121 0% 115–127 114–129 113–131 110–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 106 0% 101–112 99–114 98–116 96–118
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 106 0% 101–112 99–114 98–116 96–118

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.2% 99.7%  
215 0.2% 99.5%  
216 0.7% 99.3%  
217 0.9% 98.6%  
218 1.1% 98%  
219 1.4% 97%  
220 3% 95%  
221 4% 92%  
222 4% 89%  
223 4% 85%  
224 6% 81%  
225 7% 75%  
226 7% 68%  
227 13% 61% Median
228 9% 47%  
229 7% 38%  
230 10% 32%  
231 4% 22%  
232 5% 17%  
233 3% 12%  
234 3% 9%  
235 2% 6%  
236 1.3% 4%  
237 2% 2%  
238 0.4% 0.8%  
239 0.2% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100% Majority
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.1% 99.7%  
189 0.3% 99.7%  
190 0.4% 99.4%  
191 0.8% 99.0%  
192 1.2% 98%  
193 2% 97%  
194 3% 95%  
195 3% 92%  
196 3% 90%  
197 5% 87%  
198 5% 82%  
199 11% 77%  
200 7% 66%  
201 8% 59% Median
202 6% 51%  
203 10% 45%  
204 10% 35%  
205 7% 25%  
206 4% 18%  
207 3% 14%  
208 6% 12%  
209 2% 6%  
210 1.4% 5%  
211 1.4% 3%  
212 1.1% 2%  
213 0.5% 0.8%  
214 0.1% 0.3%  
215 0.1% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0.1% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0.1% 100%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.2% 99.8%  
165 0.4% 99.6%  
166 1.2% 99.2%  
167 2% 98%  
168 3% 96%  
169 6% 93%  
170 2% 87%  
171 4% 85%  
172 4% 81%  
173 4% 77%  
174 8% 73%  
175 6% 64% Majority
176 5% 58% Median
177 10% 53%  
178 12% 44%  
179 8% 32%  
180 6% 23%  
181 4% 17%  
182 4% 13%  
183 3% 9%  
184 3% 6%  
185 1.0% 4%  
186 0.6% 3%  
187 0.6% 2%  
188 0.5% 1.4%  
189 0.3% 0.9%  
190 0.2% 0.6%  
191 0.1% 0.4%  
192 0.2% 0.3%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0.2% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.7%  
159 0.2% 99.6%  
160 0.3% 99.4%  
161 0.5% 99.1%  
162 0.6% 98.6%  
163 0.6% 98%  
164 1.0% 97%  
165 3% 96%  
166 3% 94%  
167 4% 91%  
168 4% 87%  
169 6% 83%  
170 8% 77%  
171 12% 68%  
172 10% 56% Median
173 5% 47%  
174 6% 42%  
175 8% 36% Majority
176 4% 27%  
177 4% 23%  
178 4% 19%  
179 2% 15%  
180 6% 13%  
181 3% 7%  
182 2% 4%  
183 1.2% 2%  
184 0.4% 0.8%  
185 0.2% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0.1% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.4% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.5%  
140 1.0% 99.4%  
141 0.8% 98%  
142 2% 98%  
143 3% 95%  
144 3% 92% Last Result
145 4% 89%  
146 6% 85%  
147 5% 79%  
148 4% 73%  
149 10% 69%  
150 12% 59% Median
151 10% 47%  
152 4% 37%  
153 4% 33%  
154 10% 29%  
155 5% 19%  
156 4% 14%  
157 2% 10%  
158 2% 8%  
159 2% 6%  
160 2% 4%  
161 0.5% 2%  
162 0.5% 1.4%  
163 0.4% 0.9%  
164 0.3% 0.6%  
165 0.1% 0.3%  
166 0% 0.2%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.2% 99.8%  
138 0.5% 99.6%  
139 0.6% 99.2%  
140 0.7% 98.6%  
141 0.6% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 2% 96%  
144 3% 94%  
145 4% 91%  
146 5% 87%  
147 8% 82%  
148 8% 74%  
149 9% 66%  
150 10% 56% Median
151 7% 46%  
152 5% 39%  
153 6% 35%  
154 6% 29%  
155 5% 23%  
156 4% 18%  
157 4% 14%  
158 4% 10%  
159 2% 5%  
160 2% 3%  
161 0.9% 1.3%  
162 0.2% 0.5%  
163 0.2% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.5% 99.8%  
139 0.2% 99.3%  
140 1.3% 99.0%  
141 0.9% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 3% 95%  
144 3% 91%  
145 5% 88%  
146 6% 83%  
147 6% 77%  
148 4% 72%  
149 10% 67%  
150 12% 57% Median
151 10% 45%  
152 4% 35%  
153 4% 31%  
154 10% 27%  
155 5% 17%  
156 4% 13%  
157 2% 9%  
158 2% 7%  
159 2% 5%  
160 2% 3%  
161 0.3% 1.3%  
162 0.4% 0.9%  
163 0.3% 0.5%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0.1% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.2% 99.8%  
135 0.5% 99.6%  
136 0.6% 99.1%  
137 0.9% 98.5%  
138 2% 98%  
139 2% 96%  
140 4% 94%  
141 6% 90%  
142 4% 84%  
143 7% 80%  
144 5% 73%  
145 7% 68%  
146 8% 61%  
147 6% 53% Median
148 9% 47%  
149 8% 38%  
150 10% 30%  
151 4% 19%  
152 4% 15%  
153 3% 11%  
154 2% 8%  
155 3% 7%  
156 1.1% 3%  
157 0.8% 2%  
158 0.4% 1.4%  
159 0.3% 0.9%  
160 0.1% 0.6%  
161 0.2% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.2% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.5% 99.7%  
118 1.0% 99.3%  
119 0.9% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 3% 95%  
122 1.3% 92%  
123 4% 91%  
124 3% 87%  
125 6% 84%  
126 6% 78%  
127 13% 72%  
128 4% 59% Median
129 16% 55%  
130 3% 39%  
131 9% 36%  
132 7% 27%  
133 4% 19%  
134 5% 15%  
135 4% 10%  
136 2% 6%  
137 2% 4%  
138 1.0% 2%  
139 0.5% 1.5%  
140 0.5% 1.0%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.2% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
144 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.5% 99.7%  
118 1.0% 99.3%  
119 0.9% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 3% 95%  
122 1.3% 92%  
123 4% 91% Last Result
124 3% 87%  
125 6% 84%  
126 6% 78%  
127 13% 72%  
128 4% 59% Median
129 16% 55%  
130 3% 39%  
131 9% 36%  
132 7% 27%  
133 4% 19%  
134 5% 15%  
135 4% 10%  
136 2% 6%  
137 2% 4%  
138 1.0% 2%  
139 0.5% 1.5%  
140 0.5% 1.0%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.2% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.4% 99.6%  
111 0.6% 99.2%  
112 0.8% 98.6%  
113 2% 98%  
114 3% 95%  
115 3% 92%  
116 4% 89% Last Result
117 9% 85%  
118 6% 76%  
119 6% 70%  
120 7% 64%  
121 14% 57% Median
122 7% 44%  
123 7% 37%  
124 10% 30%  
125 3% 19%  
126 3% 16%  
127 4% 13%  
128 3% 9%  
129 2% 6%  
130 0.7% 4%  
131 2% 3%  
132 0.5% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.0%  
134 0.2% 0.7%  
135 0.2% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.7% 99.7%  
97 1.1% 98.9%  
98 2% 98%  
99 1.3% 96%  
100 3% 95%  
101 5% 91%  
102 4% 86%  
103 7% 82%  
104 5% 75%  
105 6% 70%  
106 16% 64% Median
107 9% 48%  
108 9% 39%  
109 6% 30%  
110 7% 25%  
111 5% 17%  
112 4% 12%  
113 3% 9%  
114 2% 6%  
115 2% 4%  
116 2% 3%  
117 0.5% 1.0%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
122 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.7% 99.7%  
97 1.1% 98.9%  
98 2% 98%  
99 1.3% 96%  
100 3% 95%  
101 5% 91% Last Result
102 4% 86%  
103 7% 82%  
104 5% 75%  
105 6% 70%  
106 16% 64% Median
107 9% 48%  
108 9% 39%  
109 6% 30%  
110 7% 25%  
111 5% 17%  
112 4% 12%  
113 3% 9%  
114 2% 6%  
115 2% 4%  
116 2% 3%  
117 0.5% 1.0%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations