Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 29 March–5 April 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 31.5% | 30.3–32.8% | 29.9–33.2% | 29.6–33.5% | 29.0–34.1% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 22.9% | 21.8–24.1% | 21.5–24.4% | 21.2–24.7% | 20.7–25.3% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 17.0% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.0–19.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.4–8.9% | 7.2–9.1% | 7.0–9.3% | 6.7–9.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.8–6.1% | 4.7–6.3% | 4.5–6.4% | 4.3–6.8% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.6–4.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 119 | 113–122 | 111–125 | 109–125 | 106–127 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 85 | 81–89 | 80–91 | 78–92 | 76–95 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 64 | 59–68 | 59–69 | 58–70 | 56–71 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 30 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 27–32 | 27–34 | 26–34 | 25–36 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 20 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–14 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 110 | 2% | 97% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 112 | 2% | 94% | |
| 113 | 6% | 92% | |
| 114 | 6% | 86% | |
| 115 | 5% | 80% | |
| 116 | 5% | 75% | |
| 117 | 6% | 70% | |
| 118 | 9% | 64% | |
| 119 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 120 | 14% | 37% | |
| 121 | 9% | 23% | |
| 122 | 4% | 14% | |
| 123 | 2% | 10% | |
| 124 | 2% | 8% | |
| 125 | 3% | 5% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 78 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 97% | |
| 80 | 3% | 95% | |
| 81 | 5% | 93% | |
| 82 | 12% | 88% | |
| 83 | 7% | 76% | |
| 84 | 10% | 68% | |
| 85 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 86 | 19% | 49% | |
| 87 | 8% | 30% | |
| 88 | 7% | 22% | |
| 89 | 5% | 15% | |
| 90 | 4% | 10% | |
| 91 | 2% | 5% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 7% | 96% | |
| 60 | 6% | 89% | |
| 61 | 8% | 83% | |
| 62 | 10% | 76% | Last Result |
| 63 | 14% | 66% | |
| 64 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 65 | 14% | 40% | |
| 66 | 10% | 26% | |
| 67 | 4% | 16% | |
| 68 | 6% | 12% | |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 27 | 5% | 97% | |
| 28 | 9% | 92% | Last Result |
| 29 | 11% | 83% | |
| 30 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 31 | 10% | 48% | |
| 32 | 20% | 37% | |
| 33 | 11% | 17% | |
| 34 | 3% | 6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 10% | 95% | |
| 28 | 11% | 85% | |
| 29 | 20% | 74% | |
| 30 | 21% | 53% | Median |
| 31 | 12% | 32% | Last Result |
| 32 | 11% | 20% | |
| 33 | 4% | 9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 18 | 9% | 96% | |
| 19 | 18% | 87% | |
| 20 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 43% | |
| 22 | 13% | 24% | Last Result |
| 23 | 6% | 10% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0% | 10% | |
| 10 | 0% | 10% | |
| 11 | 0% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0% | 10% | |
| 13 | 0% | 10% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 15 | 7% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 234 | 100% | 227–238 | 224–240 | 222–241 | 218–243 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 204 | 100% | 197–209 | 195–210 | 193–211 | 189–214 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 180 | 89% | 174–186 | 173–187 | 171–189 | 169–193 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 169 | 11% | 163–175 | 162–176 | 160–178 | 156–180 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 149 | 0% | 144–156 | 142–158 | 141–160 | 139–163 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 150 | 0% | 145–156 | 143–158 | 141–160 | 139–164 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 149 | 0% | 143–154 | 141–156 | 140–157 | 137–160 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 149 | 0% | 143–153 | 141–155 | 138–156 | 135–158 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 135 | 0% | 130–140 | 129–142 | 127–144 | 124–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 135 | 0% | 130–140 | 129–142 | 127–144 | 124–146 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 119 | 0% | 114–126 | 113–129 | 111–131 | 109–134 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 115 | 0% | 111–120 | 109–121 | 108–123 | 104–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 115 | 0% | 111–120 | 109–121 | 108–123 | 104–126 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 217 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 220 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 221 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 222 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 223 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 224 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 225 | 2% | 95% | |
| 226 | 2% | 92% | |
| 227 | 3% | 90% | |
| 228 | 3% | 88% | |
| 229 | 4% | 85% | |
| 230 | 4% | 81% | |
| 231 | 9% | 76% | |
| 232 | 7% | 67% | |
| 233 | 9% | 60% | |
| 234 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 235 | 10% | 38% | |
| 236 | 7% | 28% | |
| 237 | 7% | 21% | |
| 238 | 5% | 14% | |
| 239 | 4% | 9% | |
| 240 | 3% | 5% | |
| 241 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 242 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 243 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0% | 100% | |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 192 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 193 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 194 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 195 | 2% | 96% | |
| 196 | 3% | 94% | |
| 197 | 3% | 91% | |
| 198 | 2% | 88% | |
| 199 | 3% | 86% | |
| 200 | 6% | 83% | |
| 201 | 9% | 77% | |
| 202 | 9% | 68% | |
| 203 | 7% | 60% | |
| 204 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 205 | 13% | 42% | |
| 206 | 6% | 29% | |
| 207 | 9% | 23% | |
| 208 | 3% | 14% | |
| 209 | 4% | 11% | |
| 210 | 3% | 7% | |
| 211 | 2% | 4% | |
| 212 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 213 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 172 | 2% | 97% | |
| 173 | 2% | 96% | |
| 174 | 5% | 94% | |
| 175 | 4% | 89% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 85% | |
| 177 | 8% | 82% | |
| 178 | 10% | 74% | |
| 179 | 10% | 63% | Median |
| 180 | 11% | 53% | |
| 181 | 12% | 43% | |
| 182 | 6% | 31% | |
| 183 | 6% | 25% | |
| 184 | 5% | 19% | |
| 185 | 4% | 14% | |
| 186 | 2% | 10% | |
| 187 | 4% | 9% | |
| 188 | 2% | 5% | |
| 189 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 159 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 160 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 161 | 2% | 97% | |
| 162 | 4% | 95% | |
| 163 | 2% | 91% | |
| 164 | 4% | 90% | |
| 165 | 5% | 86% | |
| 166 | 6% | 81% | |
| 167 | 6% | 75% | |
| 168 | 12% | 69% | |
| 169 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 170 | 10% | 47% | |
| 171 | 10% | 37% | |
| 172 | 8% | 26% | |
| 173 | 4% | 18% | |
| 174 | 4% | 15% | |
| 175 | 5% | 11% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 6% | |
| 177 | 2% | 4% | |
| 178 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 179 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 141 | 3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 2% | 96% | |
| 143 | 2% | 94% | |
| 144 | 5% | 91% | |
| 145 | 6% | 87% | |
| 146 | 4% | 81% | |
| 147 | 12% | 77% | |
| 148 | 8% | 65% | |
| 149 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 150 | 10% | 46% | |
| 151 | 10% | 36% | |
| 152 | 5% | 26% | |
| 153 | 4% | 21% | |
| 154 | 3% | 17% | |
| 155 | 3% | 13% | |
| 156 | 2% | 10% | |
| 157 | 2% | 8% | |
| 158 | 3% | 7% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 142 | 2% | 97% | |
| 143 | 3% | 95% | |
| 144 | 2% | 92% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 91% | |
| 146 | 5% | 88% | |
| 147 | 5% | 83% | |
| 148 | 8% | 78% | |
| 149 | 11% | 70% | Median |
| 150 | 12% | 59% | |
| 151 | 16% | 47% | |
| 152 | 10% | 31% | |
| 153 | 6% | 22% | |
| 154 | 3% | 16% | |
| 155 | 3% | 13% | |
| 156 | 2% | 10% | |
| 157 | 2% | 9% | |
| 158 | 2% | 6% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 139 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 141 | 3% | 97% | |
| 142 | 2% | 94% | |
| 143 | 4% | 92% | |
| 144 | 4% | 89% | |
| 145 | 5% | 85% | |
| 146 | 7% | 79% | |
| 147 | 8% | 72% | |
| 148 | 8% | 64% | |
| 149 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 150 | 7% | 41% | |
| 151 | 11% | 34% | |
| 152 | 6% | 23% | |
| 153 | 4% | 17% | |
| 154 | 4% | 13% | |
| 155 | 3% | 8% | |
| 156 | 2% | 6% | |
| 157 | 2% | 4% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 140 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 141 | 2% | 95% | |
| 142 | 3% | 93% | |
| 143 | 5% | 90% | |
| 144 | 2% | 85% | |
| 145 | 3% | 83% | |
| 146 | 5% | 80% | |
| 147 | 5% | 74% | |
| 148 | 8% | 69% | |
| 149 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 150 | 12% | 50% | |
| 151 | 15% | 38% | |
| 152 | 9% | 22% | |
| 153 | 5% | 13% | |
| 154 | 3% | 8% | |
| 155 | 2% | 5% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 157 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 129 | 2% | 96% | |
| 130 | 4% | 94% | |
| 131 | 4% | 90% | |
| 132 | 8% | 86% | |
| 133 | 8% | 77% | |
| 134 | 10% | 69% | |
| 135 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 136 | 6% | 40% | |
| 137 | 8% | 34% | |
| 138 | 9% | 26% | |
| 139 | 5% | 17% | |
| 140 | 4% | 13% | |
| 141 | 3% | 9% | |
| 142 | 2% | 6% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 4% | Last Result |
| 144 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 129 | 2% | 96% | |
| 130 | 4% | 94% | |
| 131 | 4% | 90% | |
| 132 | 8% | 86% | |
| 133 | 8% | 77% | |
| 134 | 10% | 69% | |
| 135 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 136 | 6% | 40% | |
| 137 | 8% | 34% | |
| 138 | 9% | 26% | |
| 139 | 5% | 17% | |
| 140 | 4% | 13% | |
| 141 | 3% | 9% | |
| 142 | 2% | 6% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 144 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 113 | 4% | 96% | |
| 114 | 4% | 92% | |
| 115 | 5% | 88% | |
| 116 | 5% | 83% | Last Result |
| 117 | 6% | 78% | |
| 118 | 8% | 73% | |
| 119 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 120 | 14% | 47% | |
| 121 | 10% | 33% | |
| 122 | 4% | 24% | |
| 123 | 3% | 20% | |
| 124 | 3% | 17% | |
| 125 | 3% | 14% | |
| 126 | 2% | 10% | |
| 127 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 129 | 2% | 6% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 2% | 96% | |
| 110 | 3% | 94% | |
| 111 | 7% | 90% | |
| 112 | 10% | 83% | |
| 113 | 8% | 73% | |
| 114 | 10% | 66% | |
| 115 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 116 | 9% | 38% | |
| 117 | 8% | 29% | |
| 118 | 5% | 21% | |
| 119 | 5% | 15% | |
| 120 | 4% | 10% | |
| 121 | 2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 122 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 123 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98% | |
| 109 | 2% | 96% | |
| 110 | 3% | 94% | |
| 111 | 7% | 90% | |
| 112 | 10% | 83% | |
| 113 | 8% | 73% | |
| 114 | 10% | 66% | |
| 115 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 116 | 9% | 38% | |
| 117 | 8% | 29% | |
| 118 | 5% | 21% | |
| 119 | 5% | 15% | |
| 120 | 4% | 10% | |
| 121 | 2% | 7% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 123 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 29 March–5 April 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2199
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.28%