Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 11–21 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 33.0% 32.3–33.7% 32.1–33.9% 32.0–34.1% 31.6–34.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 21.2% 20.6–21.8% 20.4–22.0% 20.3–22.1% 20.0–22.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.2% 17.6–18.8% 17.5–18.9% 17.3–19.1% 17.1–19.4%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.7% 8.3–9.1% 8.2–9.3% 8.1–9.4% 7.9–9.6%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 7.1% 6.7–7.5% 6.6–7.6% 6.5–7.7% 6.4–7.9%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 4.9% 4.6–5.2% 4.5–5.3% 4.4–5.4% 4.3–5.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 2.9% 2.7–3.2% 2.6–3.2% 2.5–3.3% 2.4–3.4%
Liberalerna 5.5% 2.4% 2.2–2.6% 2.1–2.7% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 124 121–126 120–127 120–128 119–129
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 80 77–82 77–82 76–83 75–84
Sverigedemokraterna 62 68 66–71 65–71 65–72 64–72
Vänsterpartiet 28 33 31–34 30–35 30–35 30–36
Centerpartiet 31 27 25–28 25–29 24–29 24–29
Kristdemokraterna 22 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.4% 99.9%  
119 2% 99.5%  
120 7% 98%  
121 7% 91%  
122 8% 85%  
123 16% 76%  
124 25% 60% Median
125 19% 36%  
126 8% 17%  
127 4% 9%  
128 3% 4%  
129 1.2% 1.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 100%  
75 1.0% 99.8%  
76 3% 98.8%  
77 7% 96%  
78 14% 89%  
79 21% 75%  
80 25% 54% Median
81 18% 30%  
82 8% 12%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.2% 100%  
64 1.1% 99.8%  
65 5% 98.8%  
66 13% 94%  
67 16% 81%  
68 28% 65% Median
69 13% 37%  
70 15% 25%  
71 7% 10%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.3% 100%  
30 5% 99.7%  
31 15% 95%  
32 29% 79%  
33 27% 50% Median
34 16% 23%  
35 6% 7%  
36 1.1% 1.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.8%  
25 13% 97%  
26 30% 84%  
27 35% 54% Median
28 14% 19%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 1.5% 100%  
17 18% 98%  
18 37% 80% Median
19 33% 43%  
20 9% 10%  
21 1.2% 1.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
23 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 230 100% 227–232 226–233 226–234 224–235
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 204 100% 201–206 200–206 199–207 197–208
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 183 100% 180–186 179–187 178–187 177–189
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 166 0% 163–169 162–170 162–171 160–172
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 156 0% 153–159 153–160 152–161 151–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 156 0% 153–159 153–160 152–161 151–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 151 0% 148–153 146–154 146–155 145–156
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 148 0% 145–151 144–151 144–152 142–153
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 125 0% 122–127 121–128 121–128 120–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 125 0% 122–127 121–128 121–128 120–130
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 124 0% 121–126 120–127 120–128 119–129
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 106 0% 103–109 103–110 102–110 101–111
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 106 0% 103–109 103–110 102–110 101–111

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0.1% 100%  
224 0.6% 99.9%  
225 0.9% 99.3%  
226 4% 98%  
227 8% 94%  
228 11% 86%  
229 14% 75%  
230 16% 61%  
231 19% 45% Median
232 17% 26%  
233 7% 9%  
234 2% 3%  
235 0.7% 0.9%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100% Majority
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0.1% 100%  
197 0.5% 99.9%  
198 0.8% 99.4%  
199 4% 98.6%  
200 4% 95%  
201 11% 91%  
202 11% 79%  
203 15% 68%  
204 26% 53% Median
205 11% 28%  
206 12% 16%  
207 2% 4%  
208 1.2% 2%  
209 0.3% 0.5%  
210 0.1% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0.1% 100%  
177 0.6% 99.9%  
178 2% 99.3%  
179 3% 97%  
180 6% 94%  
181 12% 88%  
182 18% 76%  
183 20% 58%  
184 15% 38% Median
185 10% 22%  
186 7% 13%  
187 4% 6%  
188 1.3% 2%  
189 0.4% 0.5%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0.4% 99.9%  
161 1.3% 99.5%  
162 4% 98%  
163 7% 94%  
164 10% 87%  
165 15% 78%  
166 20% 62% Median
167 18% 42%  
168 12% 24%  
169 6% 12%  
170 3% 6%  
171 2% 3%  
172 0.6% 0.7%  
173 0.1% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100% Last Result
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0.3% 100%  
151 1.0% 99.7%  
152 3% 98.7%  
153 6% 96%  
154 9% 90%  
155 15% 81%  
156 19% 66%  
157 19% 46% Median
158 13% 28%  
159 8% 15%  
160 4% 7%  
161 3% 4%  
162 0.6% 0.8%  
163 0.2% 0.3%  
164 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0.3% 100%  
151 1.0% 99.7%  
152 3% 98.7%  
153 6% 96%  
154 9% 90%  
155 15% 81%  
156 19% 66%  
157 19% 46% Median
158 13% 28%  
159 8% 15%  
160 4% 7%  
161 3% 4%  
162 0.6% 0.8%  
163 0.2% 0.3%  
164 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0.2% 100%  
145 2% 99.8%  
146 3% 98%  
147 5% 95%  
148 11% 90%  
149 12% 79%  
150 15% 67%  
151 23% 52% Median
152 12% 29%  
153 10% 17%  
154 4% 7%  
155 2% 3%  
156 0.7% 0.8%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.6% 99.9%  
143 1.4% 99.2%  
144 4% 98%  
145 11% 94%  
146 8% 83%  
147 19% 75%  
148 23% 56% Median
149 14% 34%  
150 8% 19%  
151 8% 11%  
152 2% 3%  
153 0.9% 1.2%  
154 0.3% 0.4%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.3% 99.9%  
120 2% 99.6%  
121 7% 98%  
122 13% 91%  
123 10% 78%  
124 12% 69%  
125 20% 57% Median
126 21% 37%  
127 10% 16%  
128 5% 6%  
129 0.8% 1.4%  
130 0.5% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.3% 99.9%  
120 2% 99.6%  
121 7% 98%  
122 13% 91%  
123 10% 78% Last Result
124 12% 69%  
125 20% 57% Median
126 21% 37%  
127 10% 16%  
128 5% 6%  
129 0.8% 1.4%  
130 0.5% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Last Result
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.4% 99.9%  
119 2% 99.5%  
120 7% 98%  
121 7% 91%  
122 8% 85%  
123 16% 76%  
124 25% 60% Median
125 19% 36%  
126 8% 17%  
127 4% 9%  
128 3% 4%  
129 1.2% 1.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.2% 100%  
101 0.4% 99.8%  
102 2% 99.4%  
103 8% 97%  
104 7% 89%  
105 17% 83%  
106 18% 66%  
107 28% 48% Median
108 8% 20%  
109 7% 12%  
110 4% 5%  
111 0.6% 0.8%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.2% 100%  
101 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
102 2% 99.4%  
103 8% 97%  
104 7% 89%  
105 17% 83%  
106 18% 66%  
107 28% 48% Median
108 8% 20%  
109 7% 12%  
110 4% 5%  
111 0.6% 0.8%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations