Opinion Poll by SCB, 28 April–25 May 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 33.3% 32.7–34.0% 32.5–34.2% 32.4–34.3% 32.1–34.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 21.2% 20.7–21.8% 20.5–21.9% 20.4–22.1% 20.1–22.3%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 17.0% 16.5–17.5% 16.4–17.7% 16.3–17.8% 16.0–18.0%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 7.8% 7.5–8.2% 7.3–8.3% 7.3–8.4% 7.1–8.6%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 6.7% 6.4–7.1% 6.3–7.2% 6.2–7.2% 6.1–7.4%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 5.2% 4.9–5.5% 4.8–5.6% 4.8–5.7% 4.6–5.8%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.4% 3.2–3.7% 3.1–3.7% 3.0–3.8% 2.9–3.9%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 3.3% 3.1–3.6% 3.0–3.6% 3.0–3.7% 2.9–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 127 125–130 124–131 124–131 122–132
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 81 79–83 79–84 78–84 77–85
Sverigedemokraterna 62 65 63–67 63–67 62–68 61–69
Vänsterpartiet 28 30 29–31 28–32 28–32 27–33
Centerpartiet 31 26 25–27 24–27 24–28 23–28
Kristdemokraterna 22 20 19–21 19–21 18–22 18–22
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 100%  
122 0.4% 99.8%  
123 2% 99.5%  
124 3% 98%  
125 7% 95%  
126 16% 87%  
127 23% 71% Median
128 22% 48%  
129 13% 26%  
130 8% 13%  
131 3% 5%  
132 1.3% 2%  
133 0.3% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.8% 99.8%  
78 4% 99.0%  
79 15% 95%  
80 17% 80%  
81 24% 63% Median
82 24% 40%  
83 9% 16%  
84 5% 7%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 1.2% 99.9%  
62 3% 98.7% Last Result
63 14% 95%  
64 17% 82%  
65 31% 65% Median
66 18% 34%  
67 12% 16%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.9% 1.0%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.9%  
28 7% 98.7% Last Result
29 28% 91%  
30 39% 63% Median
31 17% 24%  
32 6% 7%  
33 0.8% 0.8%  
34 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.4% 100%  
24 7% 98.5%  
25 27% 92%  
26 42% 65% Median
27 19% 22%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 4% 99.6%  
19 24% 96%  
20 57% 72% Median
21 11% 15%  
22 4% 4% Last Result
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 234 100% 232–236 231–237 231–238 229–239
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 208 100% 206–211 206–212 205–212 203–213
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna 195 183 100% 181–185 180–186 179–187 178–188
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 166 0% 164–168 163–169 162–170 161–171
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 157 0% 155–160 154–160 153–161 152–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 157 0% 155–160 154–160 153–161 152–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna 167 153 0% 151–156 150–156 149–157 148–158
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 146 0% 144–148 143–149 142–150 141–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 127 0% 125–130 124–131 124–131 122–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 127 0% 124–129 124–130 123–130 122–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 127 0% 124–129 124–130 123–130 122–131
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 107 0% 105–109 104–110 103–110 102–111
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 107 0% 105–109 104–110 103–110 102–111

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100% Last Result
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0.1% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.3% 99.7%  
230 1.5% 99.4%  
231 4% 98%  
232 9% 94%  
233 20% 85%  
234 16% 65% Median
235 27% 50%  
236 13% 23%  
237 5% 9%  
238 4% 5%  
239 0.7% 0.8%  
240 0.1% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100% Last Result
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100% Majority
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 100%  
199 0.1% 100%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.3% 99.8%  
204 1.1% 99.4%  
205 3% 98%  
206 11% 96%  
207 14% 85%  
208 24% 70% Median
209 14% 47%  
210 20% 32%  
211 6% 13%  
212 5% 6%  
213 1.2% 1.5%  
214 0.2% 0.3%  
215 0.1% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0.2% 100%  
178 1.0% 99.8%  
179 2% 98.8%  
180 5% 97%  
181 7% 91%  
182 22% 84%  
183 18% 62% Median
184 22% 44%  
185 13% 22%  
186 5% 9%  
187 4% 4%  
188 0.4% 0.7%  
189 0.2% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.2% 99.9%  
161 0.4% 99.7%  
162 4% 99.3%  
163 5% 96%  
164 13% 91%  
165 22% 78%  
166 18% 56% Median
167 22% 38%  
168 7% 16%  
169 5% 9%  
170 2% 3%  
171 1.0% 1.2%  
172 0.2% 0.2%  
173 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100% Last Result
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.9%  
152 0.4% 99.7%  
153 3% 99.4%  
154 3% 96%  
155 6% 93%  
156 21% 87%  
157 18% 66% Median
158 26% 48%  
159 9% 22%  
160 9% 13%  
161 2% 4%  
162 2% 2%  
163 0.2% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.9%  
152 0.4% 99.7%  
153 3% 99.4%  
154 3% 96%  
155 6% 93%  
156 21% 87%  
157 18% 66% Median
158 26% 48%  
159 9% 22%  
160 9% 13%  
161 2% 4%  
162 2% 2%  
163 0.2% 0.2%  
164 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0.2% 100%  
148 0.5% 99.8%  
149 3% 99.2%  
150 4% 97%  
151 7% 93%  
152 16% 85%  
153 24% 69% Median
154 21% 45%  
155 13% 25%  
156 7% 11%  
157 3% 4%  
158 0.5% 0.8%  
159 0.2% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100% Last Result
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.5% 99.8%  
142 2% 99.3%  
143 5% 97%  
144 12% 93%  
145 22% 81%  
146 20% 59% Median
147 21% 38%  
148 8% 17%  
149 6% 9%  
150 3% 4%  
151 0.6% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.2%  
153 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Last Result
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 100%  
122 0.4% 99.9%  
123 2% 99.5%  
124 3% 98%  
125 7% 95%  
126 16% 87%  
127 23% 71% Median
128 22% 48%  
129 13% 26%  
130 8% 13%  
131 3% 5%  
132 1.3% 2%  
133 0.3% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 1.1% 99.8%  
123 3% 98.7%  
124 9% 96%  
125 13% 87%  
126 18% 74%  
127 20% 56% Median
128 20% 36%  
129 10% 16%  
130 4% 6%  
131 1.3% 2%  
132 0.4% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.2% 99.9%  
122 1.1% 99.7%  
123 3% 98.6% Last Result
124 9% 96%  
125 13% 87%  
126 18% 74%  
127 20% 56% Median
128 20% 36%  
129 10% 16%  
130 4% 6%  
131 1.3% 2%  
132 0.4% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.9% 99.9%  
103 2% 99.0%  
104 5% 97%  
105 17% 92%  
106 19% 76%  
107 18% 56% Median
108 22% 39%  
109 11% 17%  
110 4% 6%  
111 2% 2%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.2% 100% Last Result
102 0.9% 99.8%  
103 2% 98.9%  
104 5% 97%  
105 17% 92%  
106 19% 75%  
107 18% 56% Median
108 22% 38%  
109 11% 17%  
110 4% 6%  
111 2% 2%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations