Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 6–26 June 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 31.7% | 30.6–32.9% | 30.3–33.2% | 30.0–33.5% | 29.5–34.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.6% | 18.7–20.6% | 18.4–20.9% | 18.2–21.1% | 17.7–21.6% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 17.4% | 16.5–18.4% | 16.3–18.6% | 16.0–18.9% | 15.6–19.3% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2–9.5% | 8.0–9.7% | 7.8–9.9% | 7.5–10.3% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1–7.3% | 6.0–7.5% | 5.8–7.7% | 5.6–8.0% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.9–6.0% | 4.7–6.1% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.4–6.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.1–4.0% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.7–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 116 | 112–121 | 111–122 | 110–123 | 107–125 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 72 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 67–78 | 65–79 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 64 | 60–68 | 60–68 | 59–69 | 57–71 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 32 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 27–38 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 25 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–28 | 20–29 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0–14 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 109 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 3% | 96% | |
| 112 | 5% | 93% | |
| 113 | 7% | 87% | |
| 114 | 10% | 81% | |
| 115 | 10% | 70% | |
| 116 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 117 | 10% | 49% | |
| 118 | 9% | 39% | |
| 119 | 11% | 30% | |
| 120 | 5% | 18% | |
| 121 | 6% | 13% | |
| 122 | 3% | 7% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 6% | 94% | |
| 69 | 8% | 88% | |
| 70 | 11% | 80% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 69% | |
| 72 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 73 | 11% | 43% | |
| 74 | 11% | 31% | |
| 75 | 8% | 20% | |
| 76 | 7% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 8% | 96% | |
| 61 | 7% | 88% | |
| 62 | 11% | 81% | Last Result |
| 63 | 10% | 70% | |
| 64 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 65 | 15% | 43% | |
| 66 | 7% | 28% | |
| 67 | 10% | 21% | |
| 68 | 6% | 11% | |
| 69 | 2% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 8% | 93% | |
| 31 | 15% | 84% | |
| 32 | 20% | 69% | Median |
| 33 | 17% | 49% | |
| 34 | 17% | 33% | |
| 35 | 11% | 16% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 22 | 8% | 97% | Last Result |
| 23 | 17% | 90% | |
| 24 | 17% | 73% | |
| 25 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 26 | 19% | 33% | |
| 27 | 7% | 14% | |
| 28 | 6% | 7% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 12% | 93% | |
| 19 | 23% | 81% | |
| 20 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 36% | |
| 22 | 11% | 16% | |
| 23 | 4% | 6% | |
| 24 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 6% | 98% | |
| 17 | 22% | 92% | |
| 18 | 20% | 70% | |
| 19 | 26% | 50% | Median |
| 20 | 15% | 24% | Last Result |
| 21 | 7% | 9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 6% | |
| 14 | 2% | 6% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 209 | 100% | 204–213 | 201–215 | 199–216 | 196–218 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 188 | 99.9% | 183–193 | 183–195 | 181–197 | 179–200 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 189 | 99.8% | 183–193 | 182–195 | 179–196 | 176–198 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 161 | 0.1% | 156–166 | 154–166 | 152–168 | 149–170 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 155 | 0% | 151–161 | 150–163 | 149–165 | 146–168 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 149 | 0% | 145–155 | 144–157 | 143–159 | 141–162 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 149 | 0% | 144–154 | 143–155 | 142–156 | 138–158 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 135 | 0% | 131–139 | 129–141 | 128–142 | 124–144 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 136 | 0% | 131–141 | 130–142 | 128–142 | 126–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 117 | 0% | 113–122 | 112–125 | 111–128 | 109–131 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 117 | 0% | 112–122 | 111–122 | 110–123 | 107–125 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 110 | 0% | 106–115 | 105–116 | 104–117 | 100–119 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 92 | 0% | 88–96 | 87–97 | 86–98 | 83–100 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 197 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 198 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 200 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 201 | 1.4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 202 | 2% | 95% | |
| 203 | 2% | 93% | |
| 204 | 4% | 90% | |
| 205 | 8% | 86% | |
| 206 | 6% | 78% | |
| 207 | 11% | 72% | |
| 208 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 209 | 10% | 50% | |
| 210 | 7% | 40% | |
| 211 | 14% | 33% | |
| 212 | 7% | 20% | |
| 213 | 4% | 12% | |
| 214 | 2% | 8% | |
| 215 | 3% | 6% | |
| 216 | 2% | 3% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 181 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 97% | |
| 183 | 5% | 95% | |
| 184 | 7% | 90% | |
| 185 | 10% | 83% | |
| 186 | 11% | 73% | |
| 187 | 8% | 62% | Median |
| 188 | 8% | 54% | |
| 189 | 8% | 46% | |
| 190 | 10% | 37% | |
| 191 | 6% | 28% | |
| 192 | 5% | 22% | |
| 193 | 8% | 17% | |
| 194 | 3% | 9% | |
| 195 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 196 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 197 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 177 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 182 | 2% | 95% | |
| 183 | 5% | 94% | |
| 184 | 3% | 88% | |
| 185 | 6% | 85% | |
| 186 | 8% | 79% | |
| 187 | 9% | 71% | |
| 188 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 189 | 10% | 52% | |
| 190 | 13% | 42% | |
| 191 | 8% | 29% | |
| 192 | 7% | 21% | |
| 193 | 6% | 14% | |
| 194 | 3% | 9% | |
| 195 | 2% | 6% | |
| 196 | 2% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 153 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 154 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 155 | 3% | 94% | |
| 156 | 8% | 91% | |
| 157 | 5% | 83% | |
| 158 | 6% | 78% | |
| 159 | 10% | 72% | |
| 160 | 8% | 63% | |
| 161 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 162 | 8% | 46% | |
| 163 | 11% | 38% | |
| 164 | 10% | 27% | |
| 165 | 7% | 17% | |
| 166 | 5% | 10% | |
| 167 | 2% | 5% | |
| 168 | 2% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 149 | 2% | 98% | |
| 150 | 4% | 96% | |
| 151 | 6% | 92% | |
| 152 | 9% | 86% | |
| 153 | 10% | 77% | |
| 154 | 8% | 67% | |
| 155 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 156 | 8% | 49% | |
| 157 | 10% | 41% | |
| 158 | 6% | 31% | |
| 159 | 8% | 25% | |
| 160 | 5% | 16% | |
| 161 | 4% | 12% | |
| 162 | 2% | 8% | |
| 163 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 167 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 143 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 144 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 93% | |
| 146 | 11% | 88% | |
| 147 | 7% | 77% | |
| 148 | 8% | 70% | Median |
| 149 | 12% | 62% | |
| 150 | 9% | 50% | |
| 151 | 8% | 41% | |
| 152 | 8% | 33% | |
| 153 | 8% | 26% | |
| 154 | 6% | 18% | |
| 155 | 3% | 12% | |
| 156 | 4% | 9% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 158 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 142 | 2% | 98% | |
| 143 | 4% | 96% | |
| 144 | 4% | 92% | |
| 145 | 5% | 88% | |
| 146 | 12% | 83% | |
| 147 | 8% | 71% | |
| 148 | 8% | 64% | Median |
| 149 | 12% | 56% | |
| 150 | 9% | 44% | |
| 151 | 8% | 35% | |
| 152 | 8% | 27% | |
| 153 | 7% | 19% | |
| 154 | 5% | 12% | |
| 155 | 3% | 7% | |
| 156 | 2% | 4% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 129 | 2% | 96% | |
| 130 | 4% | 94% | |
| 131 | 7% | 90% | |
| 132 | 6% | 84% | |
| 133 | 6% | 77% | |
| 134 | 15% | 71% | |
| 135 | 9% | 56% | |
| 136 | 15% | 47% | Median |
| 137 | 6% | 32% | |
| 138 | 7% | 25% | |
| 139 | 8% | 18% | |
| 140 | 3% | 10% | |
| 141 | 4% | 7% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 130 | 2% | 96% | |
| 131 | 6% | 94% | |
| 132 | 7% | 88% | Last Result |
| 133 | 8% | 81% | |
| 134 | 7% | 73% | |
| 135 | 9% | 66% | |
| 136 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 137 | 12% | 48% | |
| 138 | 8% | 36% | |
| 139 | 7% | 28% | |
| 140 | 11% | 22% | |
| 141 | 5% | 11% | |
| 142 | 4% | 6% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 111 | 3% | 98% | |
| 112 | 4% | 95% | |
| 113 | 6% | 91% | |
| 114 | 10% | 85% | |
| 115 | 9% | 75% | |
| 116 | 11% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 117 | 10% | 55% | |
| 118 | 9% | 45% | |
| 119 | 11% | 36% | |
| 120 | 6% | 25% | |
| 121 | 6% | 19% | |
| 122 | 3% | 13% | |
| 123 | 2% | 10% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 126 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 129 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 109 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 4% | 96% | |
| 112 | 4% | 92% | |
| 113 | 8% | 88% | |
| 114 | 6% | 80% | |
| 115 | 9% | 74% | |
| 116 | 9% | 65% | |
| 117 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 118 | 14% | 41% | |
| 119 | 8% | 26% | |
| 120 | 5% | 19% | |
| 121 | 3% | 14% | |
| 122 | 6% | 10% | |
| 123 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 104 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 105 | 3% | 96% | |
| 106 | 4% | 93% | |
| 107 | 8% | 89% | |
| 108 | 11% | 81% | |
| 109 | 8% | 69% | |
| 110 | 13% | 62% | |
| 111 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 112 | 13% | 37% | |
| 113 | 7% | 24% | |
| 114 | 5% | 17% | |
| 115 | 5% | 12% | |
| 116 | 3% | 7% | |
| 117 | 2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 86 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 87 | 3% | 96% | |
| 88 | 10% | 93% | |
| 89 | 7% | 83% | |
| 90 | 8% | 77% | |
| 91 | 12% | 69% | |
| 92 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 93 | 14% | 44% | |
| 94 | 10% | 30% | |
| 95 | 9% | 21% | |
| 96 | 4% | 12% | |
| 97 | 3% | 8% | |
| 98 | 3% | 5% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 6–26 June 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2838
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%