Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet, 22–30 June 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 30.3% | 29.1–31.6% | 28.7–32.0% | 28.4–32.3% | 27.8–32.9% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 21.0% | 19.9–22.2% | 19.6–22.5% | 19.3–22.8% | 18.8–23.4% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 16.3% | 15.3–17.4% | 15.0–17.6% | 14.8–17.9% | 14.3–18.4% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.7–9.3% | 7.5–9.5% | 7.3–9.7% | 7.0–10.1% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.4–7.9% | 6.2–8.1% | 6.1–8.3% | 5.8–8.7% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5–6.8% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.2–7.2% | 4.9–7.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.5% | 4.2–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.8–6.2% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.2–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.6–6.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 107 | 103–112 | 101–113 | 100–115 | 98–118 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 74 | 70–78 | 69–80 | 68–81 | 67–84 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 58 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 53–63 | 51–65 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 25–36 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 25 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 | 21–31 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 22 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 0–22 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 100 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 101 | 2% | 96% | |
| 102 | 3% | 93% | |
| 103 | 4% | 91% | |
| 104 | 7% | 87% | |
| 105 | 7% | 79% | |
| 106 | 13% | 72% | |
| 107 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 108 | 15% | 47% | |
| 109 | 8% | 32% | |
| 110 | 7% | 24% | |
| 111 | 7% | 18% | |
| 112 | 4% | 11% | |
| 113 | 3% | 7% | |
| 114 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 69 | 4% | 97% | |
| 70 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 89% | |
| 72 | 11% | 77% | |
| 73 | 11% | 66% | |
| 74 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 75 | 9% | 40% | |
| 76 | 12% | 31% | |
| 77 | 5% | 19% | |
| 78 | 5% | 14% | |
| 79 | 3% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 53 | 3% | 98% | |
| 54 | 7% | 94% | |
| 55 | 8% | 88% | |
| 56 | 16% | 80% | |
| 57 | 12% | 64% | |
| 58 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 59 | 12% | 39% | |
| 60 | 10% | 27% | |
| 61 | 6% | 17% | |
| 62 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 7% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 7% | 94% | |
| 28 | 14% | 87% | Last Result |
| 29 | 19% | 73% | |
| 30 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 31 | 20% | 40% | |
| 32 | 10% | 20% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 6% | 97% | |
| 23 | 7% | 91% | |
| 24 | 16% | 85% | |
| 25 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 26 | 22% | 50% | |
| 27 | 14% | 28% | |
| 28 | 9% | 14% | |
| 29 | 3% | 5% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 10% | 97% | |
| 20 | 20% | 88% | |
| 21 | 17% | 68% | |
| 22 | 21% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 14% | 29% | |
| 24 | 8% | 16% | |
| 25 | 6% | 8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0% | 98% | |
| 10 | 0% | 98% | |
| 11 | 0% | 98% | |
| 12 | 0% | 98% | |
| 13 | 0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 2% | 98% | |
| 15 | 10% | 96% | |
| 16 | 17% | 86% | Last Result |
| 17 | 24% | 69% | Median |
| 18 | 23% | 44% | |
| 19 | 12% | 21% | |
| 20 | 6% | 9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0% | 96% | |
| 7 | 0% | 96% | |
| 8 | 0% | 96% | |
| 9 | 0% | 96% | |
| 10 | 0% | 96% | |
| 11 | 0% | 96% | |
| 12 | 0% | 96% | |
| 13 | 0% | 96% | |
| 14 | 3% | 96% | |
| 15 | 13% | 93% | |
| 16 | 26% | 79% | |
| 17 | 25% | 53% | Median |
| 18 | 17% | 28% | |
| 19 | 6% | 11% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 21 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 206 | 100% | 201–212 | 200–215 | 199–219 | 196–222 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 196 | 100% | 190–200 | 189–202 | 187–203 | 182–206 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 181 | 95% | 176–187 | 175–190 | 173–192 | 171–195 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 166 | 1.1% | 160–171 | 158–172 | 156–173 | 151–176 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 154 | 0% | 149–159 | 147–161 | 145–163 | 142–168 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 153 | 0% | 149–159 | 147–160 | 146–162 | 143–167 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 137 | 0% | 132–142 | 130–144 | 129–146 | 127–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 137 | 0% | 133–143 | 131–145 | 128–145 | 121–148 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 131 | 0% | 128–137 | 127–138 | 125–139 | 122–144 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 124 | 0% | 119–129 | 117–130 | 116–132 | 110–137 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 121 | 0% | 116–126 | 115–128 | 114–131 | 112–133 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 115 | 0% | 112–121 | 109–123 | 106–124 | 99–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 99 | 0% | 95–104 | 94–106 | 93–108 | 91–110 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 194 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 198 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 199 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 200 | 3% | 96% | |
| 201 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 202 | 5% | 88% | |
| 203 | 7% | 83% | |
| 204 | 6% | 76% | |
| 205 | 6% | 71% | |
| 206 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 207 | 13% | 48% | |
| 208 | 8% | 35% | |
| 209 | 7% | 28% | |
| 210 | 4% | 20% | |
| 211 | 2% | 16% | |
| 212 | 5% | 14% | |
| 213 | 2% | 9% | |
| 214 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 215 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 216 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 217 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 218 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 220 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 221 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 223 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 187 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 188 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 189 | 3% | 96% | |
| 190 | 5% | 93% | |
| 191 | 5% | 88% | |
| 192 | 8% | 83% | |
| 193 | 5% | 76% | |
| 194 | 8% | 70% | |
| 195 | 6% | 63% | Last Result |
| 196 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 197 | 14% | 49% | |
| 198 | 11% | 35% | |
| 199 | 8% | 24% | |
| 200 | 6% | 16% | |
| 201 | 4% | 10% | |
| 202 | 2% | 5% | |
| 203 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 173 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 175 | 3% | 95% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 93% | |
| 177 | 4% | 87% | |
| 178 | 7% | 82% | |
| 179 | 12% | 76% | |
| 180 | 10% | 64% | |
| 181 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 182 | 9% | 44% | |
| 183 | 9% | 35% | |
| 184 | 6% | 26% | |
| 185 | 4% | 20% | |
| 186 | 3% | 16% | |
| 187 | 5% | 12% | |
| 188 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 189 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 190 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 192 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 193 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 156 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 158 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 159 | 2% | 95% | |
| 160 | 4% | 92% | |
| 161 | 4% | 88% | |
| 162 | 5% | 84% | |
| 163 | 9% | 80% | |
| 164 | 4% | 70% | |
| 165 | 8% | 66% | |
| 166 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 167 | 9% | 47% | Last Result |
| 168 | 8% | 38% | |
| 169 | 13% | 30% | |
| 170 | 6% | 17% | |
| 171 | 3% | 11% | |
| 172 | 3% | 8% | |
| 173 | 3% | 4% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 145 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 147 | 2% | 96% | |
| 148 | 3% | 94% | |
| 149 | 5% | 91% | |
| 150 | 5% | 86% | |
| 151 | 7% | 81% | |
| 152 | 8% | 74% | |
| 153 | 5% | 66% | |
| 154 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 155 | 8% | 46% | |
| 156 | 12% | 38% | |
| 157 | 8% | 26% | |
| 158 | 5% | 18% | |
| 159 | 4% | 13% | |
| 160 | 3% | 8% | |
| 161 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 146 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 147 | 2% | 97% | |
| 148 | 4% | 95% | |
| 149 | 6% | 90% | |
| 150 | 8% | 84% | |
| 151 | 11% | 76% | |
| 152 | 14% | 65% | |
| 153 | 7% | 51% | |
| 154 | 6% | 44% | Last Result, Median |
| 155 | 8% | 37% | |
| 156 | 5% | 30% | |
| 157 | 8% | 24% | |
| 158 | 5% | 17% | |
| 159 | 5% | 12% | |
| 160 | 3% | 7% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 162 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 130 | 2% | 97% | |
| 131 | 3% | 95% | |
| 132 | 5% | 92% | |
| 133 | 5% | 87% | |
| 134 | 6% | 83% | |
| 135 | 7% | 76% | |
| 136 | 16% | 69% | |
| 137 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 138 | 10% | 47% | |
| 139 | 11% | 36% | |
| 140 | 10% | 25% | |
| 141 | 4% | 15% | |
| 142 | 3% | 11% | |
| 143 | 3% | 8% | |
| 144 | 2% | 6% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 130 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 131 | 2% | 96% | |
| 132 | 2% | 94% | |
| 133 | 3% | 91% | |
| 134 | 7% | 88% | |
| 135 | 17% | 81% | |
| 136 | 14% | 65% | |
| 137 | 8% | 51% | |
| 138 | 8% | 43% | Median |
| 139 | 10% | 34% | |
| 140 | 6% | 24% | |
| 141 | 3% | 18% | |
| 142 | 3% | 15% | |
| 143 | 3% | 11% | Last Result |
| 144 | 4% | 9% | |
| 145 | 3% | 5% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 127 | 6% | 96% | |
| 128 | 7% | 90% | |
| 129 | 16% | 83% | |
| 130 | 13% | 67% | |
| 131 | 12% | 54% | |
| 132 | 4% | 42% | Last Result, Median |
| 133 | 3% | 37% | |
| 134 | 5% | 35% | |
| 135 | 7% | 30% | |
| 136 | 9% | 23% | |
| 137 | 7% | 14% | |
| 138 | 4% | 7% | |
| 139 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 117 | 2% | 96% | |
| 118 | 2% | 95% | |
| 119 | 3% | 92% | |
| 120 | 5% | 90% | |
| 121 | 6% | 85% | |
| 122 | 10% | 79% | |
| 123 | 10% | 70% | |
| 124 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 125 | 11% | 48% | |
| 126 | 11% | 38% | |
| 127 | 7% | 27% | |
| 128 | 7% | 20% | |
| 129 | 6% | 13% | |
| 130 | 3% | 7% | |
| 131 | 2% | 5% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 114 | 2% | 98% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 116 | 6% | 95% | |
| 117 | 7% | 89% | |
| 118 | 8% | 83% | |
| 119 | 12% | 74% | |
| 120 | 10% | 63% | |
| 121 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 122 | 12% | 44% | |
| 123 | 7% | 32% | Last Result |
| 124 | 7% | 24% | |
| 125 | 6% | 17% | |
| 126 | 3% | 12% | |
| 127 | 3% | 9% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 129 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 131 | 2% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 109 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 111 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 112 | 6% | 92% | |
| 113 | 8% | 85% | |
| 114 | 16% | 77% | |
| 115 | 14% | 62% | |
| 116 | 16% | 48% | Median |
| 117 | 9% | 32% | |
| 118 | 4% | 23% | |
| 119 | 3% | 19% | |
| 120 | 3% | 17% | |
| 121 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 122 | 4% | 10% | |
| 123 | 2% | 6% | |
| 124 | 2% | 3% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 93 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 94 | 4% | 97% | |
| 95 | 6% | 93% | |
| 96 | 6% | 87% | |
| 97 | 11% | 81% | |
| 98 | 12% | 71% | |
| 99 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 100 | 10% | 46% | |
| 101 | 12% | 36% | Last Result |
| 102 | 7% | 24% | |
| 103 | 5% | 17% | |
| 104 | 4% | 12% | |
| 105 | 2% | 9% | |
| 106 | 3% | 7% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 108 | 2% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 22–30 June 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2125
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.76%