Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 14–16 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 29.6% 28.3–31.0% 28.0–31.3% 27.7–31.7% 27.1–32.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 19.2% 18.1–20.3% 17.8–20.7% 17.5–20.9% 17.0–21.5%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 17.4% 16.4–18.6% 16.1–18.9% 15.8–19.2% 15.3–19.7%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.4% 7.7–9.2% 7.4–9.5% 7.3–9.7% 6.9–10.1%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 6.3% 5.6–7.0% 5.4–7.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.0–7.8%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 5.9% 5.3–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.4%
Liberalerna 5.5% 5.6% 5.0–6.3% 4.8–6.5% 4.6–6.7% 4.4–7.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 5.4% 4.8–6.1% 4.6–6.3% 4.5–6.5% 4.2–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 106 101–110 100–112 98–113 97–115
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 68 64–73 63–74 62–75 61–76
Sverigedemokraterna 62 62 59–66 57–67 56–68 55–70
Vänsterpartiet 28 30 27–33 27–34 26–35 25–36
Centerpartiet 31 22 20–25 19–26 19–27 18–28
Kristdemokraterna 22 21 19–24 18–24 18–25 17–26
Liberalerna 20 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 19 17–22 17–22 16–23 15–24

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.8% 99.6%  
98 2% 98.8%  
99 2% 97%  
100 2% 95% Last Result
101 6% 93%  
102 8% 87%  
103 7% 78%  
104 7% 72%  
105 12% 64%  
106 10% 52% Median
107 12% 42%  
108 7% 31%  
109 12% 24%  
110 5% 12%  
111 2% 8%  
112 1.5% 5%  
113 2% 4%  
114 1.1% 2%  
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.9% 99.5%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 3% 97%  
64 5% 94%  
65 8% 89%  
66 7% 81%  
67 15% 74%  
68 14% 59% Median
69 10% 45%  
70 10% 35% Last Result
71 8% 25%  
72 6% 17%  
73 4% 11%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 2% 99.0%  
57 3% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 10% 91%  
60 14% 81%  
61 12% 67%  
62 12% 54% Last Result, Median
63 8% 42%  
64 11% 34%  
65 9% 23%  
66 5% 14%  
67 5% 9%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.6%  
26 3% 98%  
27 8% 95%  
28 12% 87% Last Result
29 15% 75%  
30 20% 59% Median
31 15% 39%  
32 10% 24%  
33 8% 14%  
34 3% 6%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.7%  
19 5% 98.8%  
20 11% 94%  
21 14% 84%  
22 21% 69% Median
23 20% 48%  
24 15% 28%  
25 7% 13%  
26 3% 6%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 5% 98%  
19 12% 93%  
20 19% 81%  
21 22% 61% Median
22 19% 39% Last Result
23 10% 21%  
24 7% 10%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.9% 1.2%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 5% 98%  
18 13% 93%  
19 17% 80%  
20 25% 63% Last Result, Median
21 18% 38%  
22 11% 20%  
23 4% 8%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.5% 0.8%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 1.1% 99.8%  
16 3% 98.7% Last Result
17 9% 95%  
18 18% 86%  
19 27% 68% Median
20 16% 41%  
21 14% 25%  
22 7% 11%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.8% 1.1%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna 195 197 100% 192–203 191–204 190–205 188–207
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 197 100% 191–201 190–203 189–204 187–206
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 174 47% 169–179 168–181 166–181 164–184
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna 167 167 4% 162–172 161–174 159–175 157–178
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 155 0% 150–160 149–161 147–163 145–165
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 152 0% 146–157 145–158 144–159 142–161
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 136 0% 131–141 129–142 128–143 126–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 132 0% 127–137 126–138 124–139 122–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 131 0% 125–136 124–136 124–137 122–140
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 125 0% 120–130 119–131 117–132 115–135
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 111 0% 108–117 106–118 104–119 103–122
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 111 0% 106–115 105–117 103–118 101–120
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 91 0% 86–96 85–97 84–97 82–100

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0.2% 99.7%  
188 0.3% 99.5%  
189 0.4% 99.2%  
190 3% 98.8%  
191 3% 96%  
192 5% 93%  
193 6% 88%  
194 6% 82%  
195 11% 76% Last Result
196 11% 65%  
197 9% 53% Median
198 5% 45%  
199 4% 40%  
200 6% 36%  
201 11% 30%  
202 9% 19%  
203 5% 11%  
204 2% 6%  
205 2% 4%  
206 1.1% 2%  
207 0.5% 0.7%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0.1% 100%  
185 0.2% 99.9%  
186 0.2% 99.7%  
187 0.5% 99.5%  
188 0.7% 99.0%  
189 2% 98%  
190 2% 96%  
191 4% 93%  
192 6% 89%  
193 7% 84%  
194 8% 76%  
195 10% 69%  
196 8% 59% Median
197 8% 51%  
198 9% 43%  
199 12% 33%  
200 8% 22%  
201 5% 14% Last Result
202 2% 9%  
203 3% 6%  
204 1.3% 3%  
205 0.7% 2%  
206 0.6% 1.0%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0.1% 100%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.2% 99.8%  
164 0.3% 99.6%  
165 0.9% 99.3%  
166 1.2% 98%  
167 2% 97%  
168 4% 95%  
169 4% 91%  
170 8% 88% Last Result
171 7% 80%  
172 8% 72%  
173 10% 65%  
174 7% 54% Median
175 8% 47% Majority
176 12% 39%  
177 8% 27%  
178 8% 20%  
179 4% 11%  
180 2% 7%  
181 3% 5%  
182 0.7% 2%  
183 0.7% 1.5%  
184 0.4% 0.8%  
185 0.2% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.2% 99.9%  
157 0.3% 99.7%  
158 0.6% 99.4%  
159 1.3% 98.8%  
160 2% 97%  
161 3% 96%  
162 3% 92%  
163 6% 89%  
164 8% 83%  
165 8% 75%  
166 9% 68%  
167 9% 58% Last Result, Median
168 9% 49%  
169 8% 40%  
170 7% 32%  
171 9% 25%  
172 6% 16%  
173 4% 9%  
174 2% 6%  
175 2% 4% Majority
176 0.9% 2%  
177 0.8% 1.3%  
178 0.4% 0.6%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
145 0.3% 99.7%  
146 0.9% 99.3%  
147 1.4% 98%  
148 2% 97%  
149 3% 95%  
150 5% 92%  
151 8% 87%  
152 12% 79%  
153 7% 68%  
154 6% 61%  
155 10% 55% Median
156 6% 45%  
157 9% 39%  
158 12% 30%  
159 5% 18%  
160 4% 13%  
161 4% 9%  
162 2% 5%  
163 1.3% 3%  
164 0.7% 1.3%  
165 0.3% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.5% 99.7%  
143 1.1% 99.3%  
144 2% 98%  
145 2% 96%  
146 5% 94%  
147 9% 89%  
148 11% 81%  
149 6% 70%  
150 4% 64%  
151 5% 60% Median
152 9% 55%  
153 11% 47%  
154 11% 35% Last Result
155 6% 24%  
156 6% 18%  
157 5% 12%  
158 3% 7%  
159 3% 4%  
160 0.4% 1.2%  
161 0.3% 0.8%  
162 0.2% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.3% 99.9%  
126 0.5% 99.6%  
127 0.6% 99.1%  
128 2% 98% Last Result
129 3% 97%  
130 4% 94%  
131 6% 90%  
132 6% 84%  
133 8% 78%  
134 9% 69%  
135 6% 60%  
136 8% 53% Median
137 12% 45%  
138 8% 33%  
139 10% 25%  
140 4% 15%  
141 4% 11%  
142 3% 7%  
143 1.3% 4%  
144 1.4% 2%  
145 0.4% 1.0%  
146 0.5% 0.7%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.3% 99.9%  
122 0.4% 99.6%  
123 0.8% 99.2%  
124 1.1% 98%  
125 2% 97%  
126 3% 96%  
127 6% 93%  
128 4% 87%  
129 7% 83%  
130 10% 76%  
131 15% 66% Median
132 9% 51%  
133 8% 42%  
134 8% 34%  
135 7% 26%  
136 7% 19%  
137 5% 11%  
138 2% 6%  
139 2% 4%  
140 1.1% 2%  
141 0.6% 1.1%  
142 0.2% 0.5%  
143 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.4% 99.6%  
123 1.3% 99.1%  
124 3% 98%  
125 6% 95%  
126 8% 89%  
127 14% 81%  
128 6% 67%  
129 5% 60%  
130 3% 55% Median
131 4% 52%  
132 8% 48% Last Result
133 9% 40%  
134 13% 31%  
135 8% 18%  
136 6% 10%  
137 3% 4%  
138 0.5% 1.2%  
139 0.1% 0.7%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.3% 99.7%  
116 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
117 1.4% 98.9%  
118 2% 97%  
119 3% 96%  
120 5% 93%  
121 6% 88%  
122 8% 82%  
123 7% 74%  
124 13% 67%  
125 11% 54% Median
126 8% 43%  
127 8% 35%  
128 12% 27%  
129 4% 15%  
130 4% 11%  
131 3% 7%  
132 2% 4%  
133 1.0% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.2%  
135 0.4% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.8% 99.6%  
104 2% 98.8%  
105 2% 97%  
106 2% 95%  
107 3% 93%  
108 4% 90%  
109 9% 87%  
110 14% 77%  
111 16% 64% Median
112 9% 48%  
113 6% 39%  
114 6% 33%  
115 10% 27%  
116 6% 17%  
117 6% 11%  
118 3% 5%  
119 0.8% 3%  
120 0.7% 2%  
121 0.4% 1.1%  
122 0.3% 0.7%  
123 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.5% 99.8%  
102 0.4% 99.3%  
103 1.4% 98.9%  
104 1.4% 97%  
105 4% 96%  
106 5% 92%  
107 5% 87%  
108 6% 82%  
109 10% 76%  
110 14% 66% Median
111 11% 52%  
112 8% 41%  
113 6% 33%  
114 12% 27%  
115 6% 15%  
116 2% 9%  
117 4% 7%  
118 2% 3%  
119 0.8% 2%  
120 0.4% 0.9%  
121 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.5% 99.7%  
83 0.9% 99.2%  
84 2% 98%  
85 3% 97%  
86 5% 94%  
87 6% 89%  
88 8% 83%  
89 10% 75%  
90 13% 65% Median
91 11% 52%  
92 8% 41%  
93 12% 33%  
94 6% 21%  
95 5% 15%  
96 4% 10%  
97 3% 6%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.3%  
100 0.4% 0.7%  
101 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations