Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 26–28 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 30.3% | 28.8–31.8% | 28.3–32.3% | 28.0–32.6% | 27.3–33.4% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 20.6% | 19.3–22.0% | 18.9–22.4% | 18.6–22.7% | 18.0–23.4% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 15.8% | 14.6–17.1% | 14.3–17.4% | 14.0–17.7% | 13.5–18.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.2–9.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.3–10.0% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.0–8.8% | 6.8–9.1% | 6.6–9.3% | 6.2–9.8% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7–7.3% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 4.9–8.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 107 | 102–114 | 100–116 | 99–118 | 96–121 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 74 | 68–79 | 68–80 | 66–82 | 64–84 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 56 | 52–61 | 51–62 | 50–64 | 48–66 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 28 | 25–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 | 23–36 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 28 | 25–32 | 24–33 | 23–33 | 22–35 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 19–28 | 18–29 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 18 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 0–22 | 0–24 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 16 | 0–19 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 99 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 101 | 2% | 95% | |
| 102 | 4% | 93% | |
| 103 | 6% | 89% | |
| 104 | 7% | 83% | |
| 105 | 7% | 76% | |
| 106 | 11% | 69% | |
| 107 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 108 | 12% | 49% | |
| 109 | 6% | 36% | |
| 110 | 6% | 30% | |
| 111 | 6% | 25% | |
| 112 | 4% | 19% | |
| 113 | 3% | 15% | |
| 114 | 3% | 11% | |
| 115 | 2% | 8% | |
| 116 | 2% | 6% | |
| 117 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 95% | |
| 69 | 7% | 90% | |
| 70 | 7% | 83% | |
| 71 | 5% | 77% | |
| 72 | 10% | 72% | |
| 73 | 9% | 62% | |
| 74 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 75 | 9% | 40% | |
| 76 | 7% | 31% | |
| 77 | 9% | 24% | |
| 78 | 4% | 15% | |
| 79 | 4% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 7% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 3% | 95% | |
| 52 | 6% | 93% | |
| 53 | 8% | 87% | |
| 54 | 7% | 79% | |
| 55 | 11% | 72% | |
| 56 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 57 | 13% | 49% | |
| 58 | 10% | 36% | |
| 59 | 7% | 26% | |
| 60 | 6% | 19% | |
| 61 | 5% | 13% | |
| 62 | 4% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98% | |
| 25 | 6% | 95% | |
| 26 | 11% | 90% | |
| 27 | 15% | 78% | |
| 28 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 29 | 10% | 48% | |
| 30 | 12% | 38% | |
| 31 | 10% | 26% | Last Result |
| 32 | 10% | 16% | |
| 33 | 3% | 6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 24 | 5% | 97% | |
| 25 | 7% | 92% | |
| 26 | 12% | 85% | |
| 27 | 13% | 73% | |
| 28 | 14% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 29 | 16% | 45% | |
| 30 | 9% | 30% | |
| 31 | 9% | 21% | |
| 32 | 6% | 12% | |
| 33 | 3% | 6% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 5% | 98% | |
| 20 | 9% | 93% | |
| 21 | 15% | 84% | |
| 22 | 15% | 69% | Last Result |
| 23 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 24 | 9% | 39% | |
| 25 | 14% | 30% | |
| 26 | 7% | 16% | |
| 27 | 6% | 8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 0% | 97% | |
| 9 | 0% | 97% | |
| 10 | 0% | 97% | |
| 11 | 0% | 97% | |
| 12 | 0% | 97% | |
| 13 | 0% | 97% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 15 | 8% | 97% | |
| 16 | 13% | 88% | Last Result |
| 17 | 18% | 76% | |
| 18 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 19 | 14% | 37% | |
| 20 | 12% | 23% | |
| 21 | 6% | 11% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 84% | |
| 2 | 0% | 84% | |
| 3 | 0% | 84% | |
| 4 | 0% | 84% | |
| 5 | 0% | 84% | |
| 6 | 0% | 84% | |
| 7 | 0% | 84% | |
| 8 | 0% | 84% | |
| 9 | 0% | 84% | |
| 10 | 0% | 84% | |
| 11 | 0% | 84% | |
| 12 | 0% | 84% | |
| 13 | 0% | 84% | |
| 14 | 3% | 84% | |
| 15 | 23% | 80% | |
| 16 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 17 | 18% | 41% | |
| 18 | 12% | 23% | |
| 19 | 7% | 11% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 196 | 100% | 189–203 | 186–205 | 185–206 | 180–208 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 191 | 100% | 186–200 | 183–203 | 182–206 | 180–210 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 168 | 10% | 160–175 | 157–177 | 156–178 | 151–180 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 163 | 4% | 158–171 | 155–174 | 154–176 | 151–181 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 153 | 0% | 147–161 | 145–164 | 143–165 | 139–169 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 153 | 0% | 146–160 | 144–163 | 143–164 | 141–169 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 135 | 0% | 130–143 | 128–145 | 126–147 | 124–150 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 130 | 0% | 124–136 | 122–138 | 120–140 | 118–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 125 | 0% | 119–132 | 117–134 | 115–136 | 109–139 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 123 | 0% | 113–129 | 109–130 | 108–132 | 105–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 108 | 0% | 102–114 | 101–117 | 99–118 | 97–122 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 100 | 0% | 90–106 | 86–107 | 84–109 | 80–112 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 85 | 0% | 80–90 | 78–92 | 77–94 | 75–97 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 186 | 3% | 97% | |
| 187 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 188 | 2% | 93% | |
| 189 | 2% | 90% | |
| 190 | 4% | 88% | |
| 191 | 3% | 84% | |
| 192 | 4% | 81% | |
| 193 | 14% | 77% | |
| 194 | 4% | 63% | |
| 195 | 4% | 59% | Last Result |
| 196 | 6% | 55% | |
| 197 | 5% | 48% | Median |
| 198 | 6% | 44% | |
| 199 | 9% | 38% | |
| 200 | 8% | 29% | |
| 201 | 7% | 20% | |
| 202 | 3% | 13% | |
| 203 | 3% | 11% | |
| 204 | 2% | 8% | |
| 205 | 2% | 6% | |
| 206 | 2% | 4% | |
| 207 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 182 | 2% | 98% | |
| 183 | 2% | 97% | |
| 184 | 2% | 94% | |
| 185 | 2% | 93% | |
| 186 | 2% | 90% | |
| 187 | 2% | 89% | |
| 188 | 3% | 87% | |
| 189 | 8% | 83% | |
| 190 | 14% | 76% | |
| 191 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 192 | 6% | 48% | |
| 193 | 6% | 42% | |
| 194 | 5% | 36% | |
| 195 | 2% | 31% | |
| 196 | 2% | 28% | |
| 197 | 4% | 26% | |
| 198 | 5% | 22% | |
| 199 | 2% | 17% | |
| 200 | 5% | 15% | |
| 201 | 2% | 10% | Last Result |
| 202 | 2% | 8% | |
| 203 | 2% | 6% | |
| 204 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 206 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 207 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 157 | 3% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 159 | 2% | 93% | |
| 160 | 2% | 90% | |
| 161 | 2% | 88% | |
| 162 | 3% | 86% | |
| 163 | 4% | 83% | |
| 164 | 5% | 80% | |
| 165 | 6% | 75% | |
| 166 | 6% | 68% | |
| 167 | 7% | 62% | Last Result |
| 168 | 7% | 55% | |
| 169 | 7% | 48% | Median |
| 170 | 10% | 42% | |
| 171 | 4% | 32% | |
| 172 | 8% | 28% | |
| 173 | 5% | 19% | |
| 174 | 4% | 14% | |
| 175 | 2% | 10% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 9% | |
| 177 | 2% | 6% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 154 | 2% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 2% | 95% | |
| 157 | 2% | 92% | |
| 158 | 3% | 90% | |
| 159 | 5% | 87% | |
| 160 | 6% | 83% | |
| 161 | 9% | 77% | |
| 162 | 8% | 67% | |
| 163 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 164 | 9% | 49% | |
| 165 | 4% | 40% | |
| 166 | 6% | 36% | |
| 167 | 6% | 30% | |
| 168 | 4% | 25% | |
| 169 | 5% | 21% | |
| 170 | 4% | 16% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 12% | |
| 172 | 2% | 9% | |
| 173 | 2% | 7% | |
| 174 | 2% | 6% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 4% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 177 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 96% | Last Result |
| 145 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 146 | 2% | 94% | |
| 147 | 3% | 92% | |
| 148 | 4% | 90% | |
| 149 | 6% | 85% | |
| 150 | 5% | 79% | |
| 151 | 11% | 74% | |
| 152 | 11% | 63% | |
| 153 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 154 | 7% | 43% | |
| 155 | 6% | 36% | |
| 156 | 4% | 29% | |
| 157 | 3% | 25% | |
| 158 | 4% | 23% | |
| 159 | 2% | 18% | |
| 160 | 3% | 16% | |
| 161 | 3% | 13% | |
| 162 | 2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 164 | 3% | 6% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 143 | 2% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 96% | |
| 145 | 2% | 94% | |
| 146 | 3% | 92% | |
| 147 | 3% | 89% | |
| 148 | 7% | 87% | |
| 149 | 8% | 80% | |
| 150 | 9% | 71% | |
| 151 | 6% | 62% | |
| 152 | 5% | 56% | |
| 153 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 154 | 4% | 45% | Last Result |
| 155 | 4% | 41% | |
| 156 | 14% | 37% | |
| 157 | 4% | 23% | |
| 158 | 3% | 19% | |
| 159 | 4% | 16% | |
| 160 | 2% | 12% | |
| 161 | 2% | 10% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 163 | 3% | 6% | |
| 164 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 127 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 128 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 94% | |
| 130 | 3% | 92% | |
| 131 | 5% | 89% | |
| 132 | 11% | 84% | |
| 133 | 9% | 73% | |
| 134 | 12% | 64% | |
| 135 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 136 | 7% | 49% | |
| 137 | 8% | 42% | |
| 138 | 7% | 34% | |
| 139 | 6% | 27% | |
| 140 | 3% | 22% | |
| 141 | 2% | 19% | |
| 142 | 5% | 17% | |
| 143 | 3% | 12% | |
| 144 | 3% | 9% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 94% | |
| 124 | 5% | 91% | |
| 125 | 5% | 86% | |
| 126 | 6% | 82% | |
| 127 | 8% | 76% | |
| 128 | 7% | 68% | |
| 129 | 7% | 61% | |
| 130 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 131 | 9% | 46% | |
| 132 | 5% | 37% | Last Result |
| 133 | 7% | 32% | |
| 134 | 7% | 25% | |
| 135 | 5% | 18% | |
| 136 | 4% | 14% | |
| 137 | 2% | 9% | |
| 138 | 3% | 7% | |
| 139 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 97% | Last Result |
| 117 | 2% | 96% | |
| 118 | 3% | 95% | |
| 119 | 3% | 92% | |
| 120 | 5% | 89% | |
| 121 | 3% | 84% | |
| 122 | 9% | 81% | |
| 123 | 8% | 72% | |
| 124 | 8% | 64% | |
| 125 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 126 | 11% | 46% | |
| 127 | 6% | 35% | |
| 128 | 4% | 28% | |
| 129 | 5% | 24% | |
| 130 | 4% | 20% | |
| 131 | 4% | 16% | |
| 132 | 3% | 12% | |
| 133 | 2% | 9% | |
| 134 | 2% | 7% | |
| 135 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 136 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 108 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 109 | 2% | 97% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 112 | 2% | 94% | |
| 113 | 2% | 92% | |
| 114 | 2% | 89% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 116 | 3% | 86% | |
| 117 | 6% | 84% | |
| 118 | 3% | 78% | |
| 119 | 3% | 75% | |
| 120 | 7% | 72% | |
| 121 | 9% | 65% | |
| 122 | 5% | 56% | |
| 123 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 124 | 6% | 44% | |
| 125 | 10% | 38% | |
| 126 | 7% | 28% | |
| 127 | 6% | 21% | |
| 128 | 5% | 16% | |
| 129 | 4% | 11% | |
| 130 | 2% | 6% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 132 | 2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 99 | 2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 101 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 102 | 6% | 94% | |
| 103 | 8% | 88% | |
| 104 | 3% | 80% | |
| 105 | 6% | 77% | |
| 106 | 11% | 71% | |
| 107 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 108 | 5% | 51% | |
| 109 | 6% | 46% | |
| 110 | 12% | 40% | |
| 111 | 6% | 28% | |
| 112 | 4% | 21% | |
| 113 | 5% | 17% | |
| 114 | 4% | 12% | |
| 115 | 2% | 9% | |
| 116 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 117 | 3% | 6% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 87 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 88 | 2% | 94% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 90 | 3% | 91% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 92 | 3% | 87% | |
| 93 | 2% | 84% | |
| 94 | 2% | 82% | |
| 95 | 3% | 80% | |
| 96 | 4% | 77% | |
| 97 | 6% | 73% | |
| 98 | 6% | 67% | |
| 99 | 7% | 61% | |
| 100 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 101 | 7% | 45% | |
| 102 | 8% | 38% | |
| 103 | 8% | 29% | |
| 104 | 5% | 22% | |
| 105 | 7% | 17% | |
| 106 | 2% | 10% | |
| 107 | 3% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 78 | 2% | 96% | |
| 79 | 3% | 94% | |
| 80 | 5% | 91% | |
| 81 | 5% | 86% | |
| 82 | 8% | 81% | |
| 83 | 11% | 73% | |
| 84 | 8% | 63% | Median |
| 85 | 13% | 54% | |
| 86 | 5% | 41% | |
| 87 | 7% | 36% | |
| 88 | 7% | 28% | |
| 89 | 6% | 22% | |
| 90 | 6% | 15% | |
| 91 | 2% | 10% | |
| 92 | 3% | 8% | |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 26–28 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.33%